severe weather forecasting

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 900
Date of issue / Etablie le: July, 08th 2015
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Strong wind, Extreme
temperature, Dust or Sand, Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort, Températures Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, Vague ).
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON July, 9th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium:South Senegal,
West/Centre Guinea Conakry and Most part of
Gambia/Sierra Leone.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South Mali, West Burkina
Faso/Ethiopia and North-west Nigeria.
Temperature > 40°C: North-east/South-west
Algeria,
South-east
Morocco,
North
Mauritania/Mali, East Niger, West/Centre Chad,
North-east Sudan/Ethiopia, South-west Eritrea
and most part of Djibouti.
Temperature < 0°C: North-east Lesotho.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:East
Tunisia, North Libya and South-west Morocco.
Wave>3m: North-east coast of Somalia, South
coasts of Madagascar, South-east coast of
South Africa and Coasts of Mauritius/Reunion.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON July, 10th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: South Guinea
Bissau, South-west Guinea Conakry and
South/Centre Sierra Leone/Liberia .
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence:Low:South
Mali,
West
Burkina Faso/Cameroon/Ethiopia and
North-west/East Nigeria,
Temperature >40°C: North-east/Southwest Algeria, South-east Morocco, North
Mauritania/Mali, East Niger, West/Centre
Chad, South Libya, South-east Egypt,
North-east Sudan/Ethiopia, Centre/South
Eritrea, North-west Somalia and Most part
of Djibouti.
Temperature< 0°C: North-east Lesotho.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North-east Libya, West Tunisia and Northwest Mauritania .
Wave>3m: North-east coast of Somalia,
North/East coasts of Madagascar, Southwest coast of South-Africa and coasts of
Reunion/Mauritius.
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON July, 11th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence:
Medium:South
guinea
Conakry and Most part of Sierra
Leone/Liberia.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South Mali/Niger,
West/South-east Burkina Faso, Northwest/South-east
Nigeria,
South-west
Cameroon, North-east CAR and West
Ethiopia.
Temperature > 40°C: South-west/East
Algeria,
South-west
Libya,
Southwest/Centre/East
Niger,
West/Centre
Chad, South-east Egypt, North-east
Nigeria/Ethiopia, North-west Somalia,
East Sudan, Centre/South Eritrea and
most part of Djibouti.
Temperature < 0°C: Temperature < 0°C:
North-east Lesotho.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: Northeast Libya, Centre Tunisia and North-west
Mauritania.
Wave>3m: North-east coast Somalia,
South/East coast of South Africa, Northeast coasts of Madagascar and South
Coasts of Mauritius.
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org