severe weather forecasting

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 805
Date of issue / Etablie le: January, 7th 2015
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Strong wind, Extreme
temperature, Dust or Sand, Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort, Températures Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, Vague ).
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 8th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: South of Madagascar.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: Most parts of Comorros,
Most
parts
of
Malawi,
Central/East
Zambia,North
Mozambique,
South
Tanzania/DRC, North-ouest Angola South
Gabon/Congo.
Temperature > 40°C: South of South Africa.
Temperature < 0°C: North-east Morocco,
North/East
Algeria,
Central/West/South
Tunisia, East Libya and North Chad.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: Northwest Mauritania, South Algeria, North Mali,
South
Algeria,East
Niger,
North
Nigeria/Cameroon and Central/West Chad.
Wave>3m: South-west Coast of Madagascar,
South coast of South Africa and North Coast
of Egypt.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 9th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: North Zambia and
South DRC.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: Comoros, Central/East
Zambia,
Central/East
Angola,
East
Zambia, North Mozambique, Most parts of
Malawi and Central/North of Madagascar.
Temperature >40°C: NIL.
Temperature < 0°C: North-east Morocco,
North/East Algeria, Central/West/South
Tunisia, East/West Libya, South-west
Egypt and North Chad.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
Central/ North-east/Mali, North-west/East
Niger, West Chad, East Egypt, Central
Sudan, South Algeria, North-east Nigeria
and North Cameroon.
Wave>3m: West coast of Morocco, Coast
of Gambia/Senegal/Mauritania, Southwest coast of Namibia, South coast of
South Africa/ Madagascar.
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 10th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: South Mozambique
and most parts of Swaziland and North of
Madagascar.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: Comoros, North/Northeast/West Zambia, South Tanzania, North
Malawi,
Central/South-east
of
Madagascar.
Temperature >40°C: South
North-west of South Africa.
Namibia,
Temperature < 0°C: North-east Morocco,
North/East Algeria, Central/West/South
Tunisia, West/South-east Libya, Southwest Egypt and North Chad.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North Mali, South/East Niger, West Chad,
South Algeria, North-east Nigeria and
North Cameroon.
Wave>3m: West coast of Morocco, Coast
of
Mauritania,South-west
coast
of
Namibia, South coast of South Africa and
south-west coast of Madagascar..
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org