severe weather forecasting

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 745
Date of issue / Etablie le: September, 15th 2014
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Strong wind, Extreme
temperature, Dust or Sand, Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort, Températures Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, Vague ).
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON SEPTEMBER, 16th 2014
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium : Most parts of Sierra
Leone/Liberia, West Guinea Bissau/Guinea.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South/East Nigeria, West
Cameroon, South Chad, Central CAR,
North/Weast/East RDC, West Uganda, Southeast Sudan, North-east of South Sudan and
West Ethiopia.
Temperature > 40°C: North/Central Mauritania,
North Mali, Central/West/South/Eeast Algeria,
North-west/East Niger, West Chad, South-east
Egypt, North-east/Central Sudan.
Temperature < 0°C: NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: Northwest/South Mauritania, Central Tunisia, Northeast Algeria, North-east Libya, East Niger,
West Chad.
Wave>3m: South/North coasts of Madagasca.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
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MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON SEPTEMBER, 17th 2014
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: Coasts of
Guinea/Guinea Bissau/Sierra
Leone/Liberia.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: East Mali, Northeast/South-east Burkina, Extreme Southwest Niger, North/Central Benin/Togo,
West Nigeria, East Cameroon, West CAR,
South Chad, North/Central/East DRC,
West Ethiopia, West Uganda.
Temperature > 40°C: North/Central
Mauritania, North Mali,
West/Central/South/East Algeria, West
Libya, North-west/East Niger, West Chad,
South-east Egypt, North-east/Central
Sudan.
Temperature < 0°C: NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North-west/South Mauritania, Central
Tunisia, North-east Algeria, North-east
Libya, East Niger, West Chad.
Wave>3m: South-west Coast of South
Africa.
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON September, 18th 2014
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium : NIL.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: Coasts of Sierra
Leone/Liberia, , Central Mali, North
Burkina, East Nigeria, West Cameroon,
East Congo, West DRC, West Ethiopia
and South west of South Africa.
Temperature > 40°C: North/Central
Mauritania, North Mali,
West/Central/South/East Algeria, West
Libya, North-west/East Niger, West Chad,
South-east Egypt, North-east/Central
Sudan, East/North-east Eritrea, North-east
Ethiopia, Djibouti.
Temperature < 0°C: NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North-west/South Mauritania, Central
Tunisia, North-east Algeria, North-east
Libya, East Niger, West Chad.
Wave>3m: South
Africa/Madagasca.
coast
of
South
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org