High Impact Weather

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrainée par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 924
Date of issue / Etablie le: 02nd Octobre 2015
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Strong wind, Extreme
temperature, Dust or Sand, Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une prévision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq phénomènes météorologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort, Températures Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, Vague ).
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON October, 03rd 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: South-east Nigeria,
Centre/South/West/East
Cameroon,
West/Centre CAR, North-west DRC, North
Gabon/Congo and most part of Equatorial
Guinea.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South Senegal/Burkina
Faso/Ethiopia, West/Centre Liberia, North-east
Cote d’Ivoire, North Ghana/Togo/Benin,
Centre-west
Nigeria/Somalia,
West
Uganda/Tanzania, Centre-south/Centre/North
Angola, Centre Congo and most part of
Gambia/Guinea Bissau/Guinea Conakry/Sierra
Leone/DRC/Rwanda/Burundi.
Temperature > 40°C: South Mauritania,
Centre/North-east Mali, North-west Niger,
Centre Chad, South-east Egypt and North-east
Sudan.
Temperature < 0°C: NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: North-east
Algeria, Centre Tunisia, East Niger and West
Chad.
Wave>3m: South-west coast of South Africa,
East coast of Reunion and coasts of
Mauritius.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON October, 04th 2015
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: East Nigeria, South
Chad, West/Centre/North CAR, North-west
DRC, North Gabon/Congo and most part of
Cameroon/Equatorial Guinea.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence:Low:
West/Centre/North
Liberia, South Burkina Faso/Ethiopia, West
Nigeria/Tanzania,
South-west
Uganda/South
Sudan,
Centre/South
Congo, South-east CAR, North-west
Somalia, West/Centre/South/North Angola
and most part of Guinea Conakry/Sierra
Leone/Coted’Ivoire/Ghana/Togo/Benin
/DRC/Rwanda/Burundi.
Temperature >40°C: South Mauritania,
Centre/North-east Mali, North Niger, Centre
Chad, South-east Egypt and North-east
Sudan.
Temperature< 0°C: NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km: Centre
Tunisia, South-east Niger and West/Centre
Chad.
Wave>3m:
Africa.
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON October, 05th 2015
South-west coast of South
LEGEND
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium:Centre/South/Southeast Cameroon, West/Centre CAR, West
Uganda/Tanzania, East DRC and most
part
of
Guinea
Bissau/Guinea
Conakry/Sierra Leone/Liberia/Equatorial
Guinea/Gabon/Congo/Rwanda/Burundi.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence:
Low:
Centre/South
Ghana/Togo/Benin/South Sudan, South
Nigeria, South-west Cameroon, Southeast
CAR,
East
Sudan,
West/Centre/South/South-east Ethiopia,
North Somalia, West/North/Centre/Southwest DRC, West/North Angola and most
part of Cote d’Ivoire/Seychelles.
Temperature
>
40°C:
South-west
Mauritania, North Mali, North-west Niger
and Centre Chad.
Temperature < 0°C: Temperature < 0°C:
NIL.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
Centre Tunisia, South-east Niger and
West/Centre Chad.
Wave>3m:South Coast of South Africa.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org