severe weather forecasting

CENTRE AFRICAIN POUR LES APPLICATIONS
DE LA METEOROLOGIE AU DEVELOPPEMENT
Institution Africaine parrain/e par la CEA
et l’OMM
AFRICAN CENTRE OF METEOROLOGICAL
APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT
African Institution under the aegis of UNECA and WMO
SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING
PREVISION DES CONDITIONS METEO A FORT IMPACT: PSN06- 801
Date of issue / Etablie le: December, 31st 2014
This bulletin is a three days forecast for occurrences of five severe weather phenomena (Heavy Rainfall, Strong wind, Extreme
temperature, Dust or Sand, Wave).
Ce bulletin donne une pr/vision à trois jours de l’occurrence de cinq ph/nomènes m/t/orologiques à fort impact (Fortes Pluies , vent
fort, Temp/ratures Extrêmes, Poussière ou vent de sable, Vague ).
LEGEND
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 1st 2015
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: Comoros, West
Madagacsar, South Zambia and North
Zimbabwe.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South Gabon/Congo, Northwest Angola, South/South-east Tanzania,
South-east/Central/South-west Zambia, Southeast of South Africa, South/Central Malawi and
Most
parts
of
Zimbabwe/Mozambique/Madagascar.
Temperature > NIL
Temperature < 0°C: Central/North-east
Morocco, North/South-east Algeria, Northwest Tunisia and South-west Libya.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North/Central/East
Mauritania,
West/South/South-east
Algeria,
Northeast/South-west Libya, North/Central/East
Mali, West/East Niger, West Chad, North/East
Egypt and North-east Sudan.
Wave>3m: North-west coast of Egypt and
North coast of Libya.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org
LEGEND
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 2nd 2015
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: West Madagascar.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: South Gabon/Congo,
North-west Angola, South-west Tanzania,
South/Central Zambia, North-east/West
Mozambique, North Malawi and Most
parts Madagascar/Comoros.
Temperature > NIL
Temperature < 0°C: Central/North-east
Morocco, North/South-east Algeria,
North-west Tunisia and South-west Libya.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North/Central/East
Mauritania,
West/South/South-east Algeria, Northeast/South-west Libya, North/Central/East
Mali, West/East Niger, West Chad,
North/East Egypt and North-east Sudan.
Wave>3m: North-west coast of Libya.
LEGEND
MAP OF SW OCCURRENCE ON JANUARY, 3rd 2015
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Medium: West Madagascar.
Rainfall > 50mm/24h
Confidence: Low: East DRC, South-west
Tanzania,
North-east/Central
Mozambique, North/South Malawi, South
Zambia, North Zimbabwe, North-east
Botswana and Most parts of Madagascar.
Temperature > 40°C NIL
Temperature < 0°C: Central/North-east
Morocco, North/South-east Algeria,
North-west Tunisia and South-west Libya.
Atmospheric dust Visibility < 5 Km:
North/Central/East
Mauritania,
West/South/South-east Algeria, Northeast Libya, North/Central/East Mali,
West/East Niger, West Chad, North/East
Egypt, North Burkina Faso, North-east
Nigeria, North Cameroon and North-east
Sudan.
Wave>3m: West coast of Madagascar.
Source: Synthesis of:
1) Dynamic of atmosphere by different global models (ECMWF, GFS, ARPEGE, UKMO),
2) Index of extreme events from ECMWF (http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/eps/efi/efi_tp/),
3) Occurrence probability of extreme precipitation from TIGGE project ensemble models (http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp/TIGGE/tigge_extreme_prob.html),
probability exceeding the 90th percentile [%]
4) MJO active phase.
85, Avenue des Ministères
BP : 13184 Niamey- Niger
 : (227) 20 73 49 92 -- Fax : (227) 20 72 36 27 --  : [email protected] --
Web : http//www.acmad.org