Impact of Paris Attack

Impact of Paris Attack
On International Bookings and
Arrivals into Europe
With Focus on Top European City
Destinations
March 2016
“Applied traveller operational intelligence to support
tactical business decisions”
www.ForwardKeys.com
Total Int’l Arrivals in Paris vs. Brussels vs. Europe since Paris Attack
Heavy Impact of Terrorism on Arrivals
•
•
•
Europe is the only destination region in the world seeing a decline in international arrivals since the attack in Paris to end
of February 2016. The attack in Paris and the lockdown in Brussels have a profoundly negative impact in a long term,
particularly after entering December.
Brussels saw a positive 5% for week of Dec 12th, as business travellers rebooked their immediately cancelled trips after
the lockdown to finish year-end business before Christmas.
Int’l arrivals in Europe saw the only positive weekly variation of +6% for the week of Dec 19 th to 25th, meaning travelers
still traveled to European destinations other than Paris and Brussels under the gloomy situation.
Int’l Arrivals in Paris vs. Brussels vs. Europe since the Attack
(Weekly from Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016, vs. Prev. Year)
%Var. Of Int’l Arrivals to Destination Region
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016, vs. Prev. Year)
© ForwardKeys.com
© ForwardKeys.com
Europe
-2%
Business travelers
returned to Brussels
Christmas travel
EU Summit
2016
the Americas
1%
2
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5%
Asia Pacific
5%
Africa&Middle East
Total Int’l Arrivals in Top 10 European Destinations since Paris Attack
Paris and Brussels Saw Overall Decline in Travellers from
Worldwide
•
•
Paris and Brussels are the only two destination cities among the Top* Destinations that saw overall decline from worldwide
source markets.
Barcelona and Madrid were the least affected by the events on one hand; on the other hand, Mobile World Congress shifted
from 2nd to 5th March in 2015 to 22nd to 25th February in 2016, boosting the international arrivals in February in Spain.
%Var. of Int’l Arrivals in Top* European Destinations since the Attack
Total Int’l and by Origin Region
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016 vs. Prev. Year)
© ForwardKeys.com
Total Int'l
Paris
London
Istanbul
Rome
Frankfurt
Amsterdam
Madrid
Barcelona
Milan
Munich
Brussels
Europe
Europe
-12%
-1%
-5%
-2%
-1%
3%
8%
13%
0%
-6%
-9%
-2%
-14%
-2%
-14%
-1%
-5%
3%
6%
4%
-4%
-9%
-10%
-3%
the Americas Asia Pacific
-9%
1%
1%
-1%
1%
-2%
7%
29%
-2%
3%
-7%
2%
*Top 10 destination cities in Europe and Brussels
3
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-18%
0%
15%
-10%
2%
4%
20%
31%
10%
2%
-11%
3%
Africa &
Middle East
-4%
-2%
6%
5%
7%
8%
15%
21%
6%
6%
0%
3%
Total Int’l Bookings to Paris and Brussels since Paris Attack
Net Bookings Still below Previous Year’s Level After More
than 3 Months since Nov 13th
•
International net bookings only dropped severely right following the major events while weaker performance than last
year has lasted until now.
Weekly Int’l Net Bookings to Paris
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016 vs. Prev. Year)
Weekly Int’l Net Bookings to Brussels
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016 vs. Prev. Year)
© ForwardKeys.com
© ForwardKeys.com
-22%
Weekly Int'l Bookings to Paris
Weekly Int'l Bookings to Brussels
-17%
The week following the attack
14-Nov
28-Nov
12-Dec
26-Dec
2015/16
9-Jan
23-Jan
6-Feb
20-Feb
The week following the lockdown
14-Nov
28-Nov
2014/15
12-Dec
26-Dec
2015/16
4
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9-Jan
2014/15
23-Jan
6-Feb
20-Feb
Total Int’l Bookings to Paris vs. Brussels vs. Europe since Paris Attack
Long-haul Travelers Stay Away from Europe
•
Long-haul source markets – Asia Pacific and the Americas – are showing major decrease in leisure bookings.
Int’l Net Bookings in Paris vs. Brussels. vs. Europe since the Attack
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016 vs. Prev. Year)
Afri ca &
Mi ddle
Ea s t
19%
Intra Europe
42%
As i a
Pa ci fic
14%
© ForwardKeys.com
Afri ca &
Mi ddle
Ea s t
As i a 7%
Pa cific
11%
the
Americas
19%
IntraEurope
63%
the
Ameri cas
25%
Intra-Europe
the Americas
Paris
Asia Pacific
Afri ca &
Mi ddle
As i a Ea s t
Pa ci fic 7%
7%
the
Ameri cas
14%
Intra Europe
72%
Africa&Middle East
Europe
-6%
-5%
-3%
Brussels
-2%
-7%
-10%
-23%
-13%
-14%
-18%
-21%
-32%
5
%Va r. of
Tota l Int'l Bookings
-22%
-5%
© Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
-17%
Total Int’l Bookings to Top 10 European Destinations since the Attack
Terrorism Events Haunting Bookings to All Top European
Destinations in 2015/16 Winter
•
Attacks in Paris, lockdown in Brussels, and bombings in Istanbul are haunting international bookings to all top
European destinations.
%Var. of Int’l Net Bookings in Top European Destinations since the Attack
Total Int’l and by Origin Region
(Nov 14th 2015 – Feb 26th 2016 vs. Prev. Year)
© ForwardKeys.com
Total Int'l
Paris
London
Istanbul
Rome
Frankfurt
Amsterdam
Madrid
Barcelona
Milan
Munich
Brussels
Europe
-22%
-6%
-18%
-4%
-5%
1%
-0%
2%
-6%
-4%
-17%
-5%
Europe
-23%
-5%
-24%
-4%
-5%
3%
1%
0%
-7%
-5%
-18%
-6%
the Americas Asia Pacific
-21%
-6%
-31%
-4%
-5%
-7%
-2%
7%
-7%
-3%
-13%
-5%
6
© Forward Data SL. All Rights Reserved.
-32%
-8%
-10%
-7%
-5%
3%
-5%
-3%
-4%
4%
-14%
-3%
Africa &
Middle East
-10%
-6%
-0%
2%
-2%
5%
1%
7%
2%
-6%
-8%
-2%
Forward Looking Int’l Arrivals in March to August 2016
Double-digit Behind Last Year; Euro Cup may Stimulate
Arrivals into Paris
•
•
Bookings that have been made as of Feb 26th 2016 show a miserable spring season ahead: the shift of Easter holidays
from April in 2015 to March in 2016 makes March less gloomy than the rest of the spring months.
Forward bookings for June arrivals in Paris are up 4% vs. prev. year, thanks to the Euro Cup 2016 as well as the early
leisure bookings from North America and North East Asia.
%Var. of Monthly Int’l Arrivals on the Book in Paris vs. Brussels vs. Europe
during 1st March to 31st August 2016
(%Var. Of Weekly Int’l Arrivals on the book as of Feb 26th, 2016)
© ForwardKeys.com
%Va r. of Monthly Int'l Arrivals on the Book in
Brussels
Europe vs . Prev. Yea r
-2%
-10%
10%
Paris
-15%
4%
3%
2%
0%
-3%
-10%
-4%
-3%
-4%
-7% -8%
-8%
-12%
-15%
-15%
-20%
-13%
-13%
-16%
-18%
-27%
-30%
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
7
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Jul
Aug
Forward Looking Europe March to August 2016
Growing Destinations at the Expense of Losing ones
•
•
Destinations that are seeing more forward bookings than previous year are clearly winning both intra-regional as well
as long-haul travellers from the losing destinations.
Amsterdam and Munich particularly see increasing bookings for Easter holidays, while London’s decrease is directly
linked with combined trips with Paris, poor performance from Brazil and new Visa regulations, especially for long stay
non-European Economic Area visitors(1).
%Var. of Int’l Arrivals on the Book for Top 10 European Destinations and Brussels
During 1st March to 31st August 2016.
(Based on Total Bookings as of 26th February 2016)
© ForwardKeys.com
%Va r. of
Total Long Haul Arri va l s in each destination ci ty on the Book vs . Prev. Year
Total Int'l
12%
7% 8%
5%
1%
7%
5%
5%
4%
1%
7%
Total Long-haul Arrivals in Europe
On the Book: +3%
0% 1%
Total Int’l Arrivals in Europe
On the Book: -2%
-2%
-4%-3%
-7%
-8%
-10%
-15%
-23%
Paris
London
-27%
Istanbul
Rome
Frankfurt Amsterdam
Madrid
Barcelona
Milan
8
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Munich
Brussels
(1)
https://www.gov.uk/government/
news/immigration-healthsurcharge-extends-to-australiaand-new-zealand
Methodology and Glossary

This analysis is based on Air Reservation Data property of ForwardKeys® as of 29th February 2016. Database
contains reservations handled by more than 200 000 online and offline travel agencies worldwide. Database
updated as of 26th February 2016.

Perimeter:




Destination: Europe, Top 10 European destination cities and Brussels
Source Market: Total International
Period:
 Booking history: Weekly from 14th November 2015 to 26th February 2016 vs. same weeks previous year.
 Arrival history: Weekly from 14th November 2015 to 26th February 2016 vs. same weeks previous year.
 Arrivals on the book: Arrival dates from 1st March to 31st May (or 29th August) 2016 based on issued bookings as of 26th
February 2016.
Lengths of Stay: Current analysis includes only those reservations with at least one night at the destination, therefore
excluding transits, day trips or one way trips.

Arrivals refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific time frame.

Arrivals on the Book (OTB Arrivals) refer to the number of airline passengers arriving at the destination within a specific future
time frame according to the bookings that have been issued as noted.

Bookings represent air reservations made for travel to the specific destination (i.e. Paris) for any date of travel.
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