Executive Talk.... Stock Market Outlook.... TOP 10 Favourite Stocks

Transcription

MOMENTUM
The Investment Solution
February-March 2004
Vol. 1/2004
Executive Talk....
KTC ¡“°°«à“§”«à“ ç∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µé
Stock Market Outlook....
ç‡¥◊Õπ °.æ-‡¡.¬ ......§“¥
SET ·°«àßµ—«°√Õ∫ 645 ∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥é
TOP 10 Favourite Stocks
CoNTENTS
1 Executive Talk.....KTC ¡“°°«à“ §”«à“ ç∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µé / 4 Stock Market Outlook..... ·π«‚πâ¡µ≈“¥:
‡¥◊Õπ °.æ-‡¡.¬......§“¥ SET ·°«àßµ—«°√Õ∫ 645 ∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥ / 7 Top 10 Favorite Stocks
/ 9 Industry Trend / 15 Technical View / Insight..... >>18 çÕ —ßÀ“œ¬—ß¡’Àπÿâ ¥’·¡âª®í ®—¬≈∫ÀâÕ¡≈âÕ¡é.....
>> 21ç∏ÿ√°‘®À≈—°∑√—æ¬å: §“¥¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÕÈ ¢“¬‡©≈’¬Ë µàÕ«—π ªï 2547 ∑’Ë 30,000 ≈∫.....AST πà“ π„®≈ß∑ÿπ∑’ Ë ¥ÿ é.....
>> 23 çÕÿµ “À°√√¡¢π àß∑“ß∑–‡≈¬—ß ¥„ µàÕ‡π◊ËÕßé..... / 26 Market Statistics / 29 Stock
Highlight (Low P/E, Low P/BV, High dividend yield) / 32 Recommendation Changes
/ 33 SYRUS Coverage / 36 Warrant table / 38 BANPU / 40 KTB / 41 NFS / 43 PATKL
/ 45 PF / 48 PRANDA / 50 SATTEL / 52 SHIN / 54 SPALI / 55 TPIPL
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66(0)2646-9961
66(0)2646-9971
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1
E xecutive Talk
çº¡«à “ Competition makes business healthy.
∫“ß∑’§ÿ≥π—ËßÕ¬Ÿà‡©¬Ê ·≈â«‰¡à¡’§Ÿà·¢àß ¡—ππà“‡∫◊ËÕπ– æÕ¡’
§Ÿà·¢àß ¡—π°√–µ◊Õ√◊Õ√âπ¢÷Èπ ‰¡à „™à«à“ §ÿ≥µ◊ËπÕ¬Ÿà§π‡¥’¬«
∂“¡«à“¡—π°√–∑∫°“√¢¬“¬µ—«‰À¡ ‰¡àÀ√Õ°§√—∫ ¢Õß
∫“ßÕ¬à“ß ‡√“·∫°§π‡¥’¬«‰¡à ‰¥âÀ√Õ° ™à«¬°—π∑”®–¥’°«à“
Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë«à“∑”¢÷Èπ¡“·≈â« „§√‡°Á∫‰¥â¡“°°«à“ „§√‡√Á«°«à“‡°Á∫
‰¥â¡“°°«à“é
KTC ¡“°°«à“§”«à“∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ
§π∑’ËÕ“»—¬Õ¬Ÿà „π —ß§¡‡¡◊Õß∑ÿ°«—ππ’È §ß¬“°∑’Ë®–ªØ‘‡ ∏«à“ πÕ°‡Àπ◊Õ®“°
ªí®®—¬ 4 ∑’Ë‡√“¡—°æŸ¥∂÷ß°—π §◊Õ Õ“À“√ ∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ ‡§√◊ËÕßπÿàßÀà¡ ·≈–
¬“√—°…“‚√§·≈â« ¬—ß¡’Õ’°ªí®®—¬Àπ÷Ëß ∑’Ë°â“«‡¢â“¡“‡ªìπ à«π ”§—≠„π™’«‘µ
ª√–®”«—π¢Õß‡√“ π—Ëπ°Á§◊Õ ç∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µé ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ‡§√◊ËÕß™à«¬Õ”π«¬§«“¡
–¥«°„π™’«‘µª√–®”«—π‰¥âÕ¬à“ß¥’ ·≈–¡’ à«π™à«¬°√–µÿâπ„Àâ¡’°“√„™â®à“¬„π
°“√∫√‘‚¿§ Ÿß¢÷Èπ «—ππ’È‡√“‰¥â¡’ ‚Õ°“ ¡“æŸ¥§ÿ¬°—∫ ç§ÿ≥π‘«—µµå ®‘µµ“≈“πé
ª√–∏“π‡®â“Àπâ“∑’∫Ë √‘À“√ ç‡§∑’´é’ À√◊Õ ∫√‘…∑— ∫—µ√°√ÿß‰∑¬ ®”°—¥ (¡À“™π)
∫√‘…∑— Consumer Finance ´÷ßË ªí®®ÿ∫π— ‡ªìπºŸπâ ”„π∏ÿ√°‘®∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ¢Õß‰∑¬
∑—Èß„π·ßà à«π·∫àß∑“ß°“√µ≈“¥ ·≈– °“√π”‡ πÕº≈‘µ¿—≥±å„À¡àÊ ∑’ËÀ≈“°
À≈“¬ ‡™àπ ∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ KTC VISA Mini ∫—µ√∑’Ë‡¢â“∂÷ß≈Ÿ°§â“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
‡©æ“–°≈ÿà¡ ·≈–¬—ß¡’¢π“¥‡≈Á°°«à“∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ∑—Ë«‰ª∂÷ß 43%
°“√ÕÕ°°Æ‡°≥±å°“√§«∫§ÿ¡∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ„À¡à¢Õß∏π“§“√
·Ààßª√–‡∑»‰∑¬ °√–∑∫µàÕ KTC À√◊Õ‰¡à
”§—≠∑’Ë ÿ¥§◊Õ º¡«à“‡√“µâÕßÀ“‚Õ°“ „π°“√∑”∏ÿ√°‘®∑’Ë¥’ ·≈–Õ¬Ÿà „π°√Õ∫
∑’Ë∂Ÿ°µâÕß„Àâ ‰¥â ·≈â«¡—π®– turnaround ¡“‡ªìπ‚Õ°“ ”À√—∫‡√“Õ’°§√—Èß
Õ¬à“ß§√—Èß∑’Ë·≈â«‡¡◊ËÕ°Æ‡°≥±å „À¡àÕÕ°¡“ ‘Ëß∑’ËºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√µâÕß∑”§◊Õ
ª√—∫µ—«„ÀâÕ¬Ÿà¿“¬„µâ°Æ„À¡àπ—Èπ„Àâ ‰¥â ·≈–¬—ß‡µ‘∫‚µµàÕ π—Ëπ§◊ÕÀ≈—°„π°“√
∑”ß“π¢Õß KTC §◊Õ Õ¬à“ß„πµÕπ·√° ‡√“«à“®–∑”„π≈—°…≥– risk based lending ´÷Ëß°Á§◊Õ°“√ª≈àÕ¬‡§√¥‘µ„Àâ°—∫§π∑’Ë¡’§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß Ÿß¢÷Èπ
·≈â«°Á§‘¥Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ ‡æ√“–«à“°ÆÀ¡“¬¬—ß¡’™àÕß«à“ß„Àâ∑”Õ¬Ÿà „π
µà“ßª√–‡∑»‡§â“°Á∑”°—π §π∑’Ë¡’§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß Ÿß°Á®à“¬Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ Ÿß §π∑’Ë¡’
§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ßµË”°Á®à“¬Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬µË” ´÷Ëß°Áπ—∫«à“¬ÿµ‘∏√√¡°—∫ —ß§¡ ·∑π∑’Ë®–
¡“‡À¡“√«¡°—πÕ¬à“ßπ’È ·µà‡¡◊ËÕ°Æ‡°≥±å„À¡à ‰¡à‡Õ◊ÈÕÕ”π«¬·≈â« ‡√“°ÁµâÕß
¡“§‘¥À“·π«∑“ß„π°“√¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡àÊ„Àâ¡—πÕ¬Ÿà¿“¬„µâ°√Õ∫„Àâ ‰¥â ‡™àπ
Õ¬à “ ß∑’Ë KTC ∑”°Á §◊ Õ ®— ¥ √√ß∫ª√–¡“≥„Àâ ¥’ ·≈â « °Á ‡ √‘Ë ¡ „™â CRM
(Customer Relationship Management)‡¢â“‰ª„Àâ‡√Á«∑’Ë ÿ¥ Õ–‰√∑’Ë¥Ÿ«à“
∑”·≈â « ‰¡à §ÿâ ¡ §à “ °Á ‰ ¡à∑” ®—¥ √√‡ß‘π„Àâ¡’ª√–‚¬™πå ‚¥¬‡©æ“–∑“ß¥â“π
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¡’°≈¬ÿ∑∏å¬—ß‰ßπ—∫µ—Èß·µà·¬°ÕÕ°®“°∏π“§“√°√ÿß‰∑¬ ·≈–¡“
®¥∑–‡∫’¬π‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑¡À“™π
‰¡à¡’°≈¬ÿ∑∏åÕ–‰√‡≈¬ ‰¡à®”‡ªìπµâÕß‡ªìπÕ—®©√‘¬– ®÷ß®–§‘¥ÕÕ° ‘Ëß∑’Ë KTC
∑”Õ¬Ÿàπ’Ë „§√Ê °Á∑”‰¥â „§√Ê °Á§‘¥‰¥â Õ¬à“ß·√°‡≈¬ §◊Õªí≠À“‡√“Õ¬Ÿà
Syrus
February 2004-March 2004
2
µ√ß‰Àπ ‡√“°Á·°âµ√ßπ—Èπ Õ¬à“ß°√≥’¢Õß KTC ‡¥‘¡§π‡ÀÁπ«à“∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ
°√ÿß‰∑¬ øíß¥Ÿ≈â“ ¡—¬ ‡√“°Á‡ª≈’Ë¬π¡“‡√’¬°µ—«‡Õß«à“ KTC Card ·≈â«°Á
∑”µ—«„Àâ∑—π ¡—¬¢÷Èπ Õ¬à“ß‡™àπ ¡¡ÿµ‘«à“∂â“„§√´—°§π¡“∫Õ°«à“π‘«—µµå‡™¬
√ÿàß¢÷Èπº¡°Á≈ÿ°¢÷Èπ‰ª∑”º¡„À¡à ·µàßµ—«„À¡à ‡∑à“π’È°Á ‰¡à‡™¬·≈â« ¥—ßπ—Èπ ‡¡◊ËÕ√Ÿâ
«à“ªí≠À“¡—π§◊ÕÕ–‰√ ‡™àπ §«“¡‡™¬ °Á∂“¡‡≈¬«à“Õ–‰√∫â“ß∑’Ë‡™¬ ∂â“‡§â“
∫Õ°«à“ §π KTC ‡™¬ °Á·°â§π KTC ‰¡à „Àâ¡—π‡™¬ ∑’π’È®–·°â§π KTC ‰¡à
„Àâ‡™¬ °ÁµâÕß √â“ßµ—Èß·µà∫√√¬“°“»„π∑’Ë∑”ß“π‰¡à „Àâ¡—π‡™¬ ‡¡◊ËÕ§π‡¢â“¡“
Õ¬Ÿà„π ∂“π∑’Ë ∑’Ë∑—π ¡—¬ ∂“¡ÀπàÕ¬«à“®–¡’„§√Õ¬“°∑”µ—«‡™¬∫â“ß
· ¥ß«à“‡√◊ËÕß Corporate culture ‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰¡à¬“°
‰¡à¬“°‡≈¬ Õ¬à“ß·√°µâÕß‡ª≈’Ë¬π ¿“æ·«¥≈âÕ¡°àÕπ °Á‡À¡◊Õπ°—π ∂â“§ÿ≥
‡¢â“«—¥ §ÿ≥°≈â“‡ªî¥‡æ≈ß¥—ß‰À¡ ∑ÿ°§π‡ß’¬∫ §ÿ≥°ÁµâÕß‡ß’¬∫ ¬‘Ëß∂â“‡¢â“‰ª
„πæ√–Õÿ‚∫ ∂Õ¬à“«à“·µà§π‰∑¬‡≈¬ ™“«µà“ß™“µ‘°ÁµâÕß ”√«¡ ‡ÀÁπ‡√“π—Ëß
æ—∫‡æ’¬∫ ‰¡à‡§¬∑”∑—Èß™’«‘µ ¬—ßµâÕß∑”µ“¡ º¡∂÷ß∫Õ°«à“∫√√¬“°“»¡—π
‡ª≈’Ë¬π§π‰¥â ∂â“§π‡√“‡™¬ °Á √â“ßÕ–‰√∑’ËÕ¬Ÿà·≈â«∑—π ¡—¬ ‘ æÕ‡√“‰¡à‡™¬
√—ß ’‡√“°ÁÕÕ°‰ª §πÕ◊Ëπ°Á√—∫√Ÿâ ‰¥â
µ—Èß·µà‡¢â“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„πµ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å ∂÷ßµÕππ’È¡’Õ–‰√∑’Ë§‘¥
«à“‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß‰ª∫â“ß
‡ª≈’Ë¬π∑ÿ°Õ¬à“ß ‡¥‘¡‡√“∂Ÿ°µ—Èß„Àâ‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë∫√‘À“√∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ„Àâ°—∫
∏π“§“√°√ÿß‰∑¬ ·µà‡¡◊ËÕ·¬°ÕÕ°¡“‡ªìπ‡æ’¬ß·§à∫√‘…—∑„π°≈ÿà¡ ®÷ßµâÕß¡’
°“√«“ß‡ªÑ“À¡“¬¢Õß∫√‘…—∑„À¡à ∑ÿ°«—ππ’È∫√‘…—∑∂Ÿ°«“ß‡ªÑ“‰«â«à“ ®–‰¡à ∑”
∏ÿ√°‘®∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µÕ¬à“ß‡¥’¬« ·µàµâÕß°“√‡ªìπ Marketing Company ‡ªìπ
Consumer Financial Services Company ·µà«à“¡’°“√µ≈“¥‡ªìπµ—«π”
º¡µâÕß°“√„Àâ KTC ‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë∑”∏ÿ√°‘®À≈“°À≈“¬ ‡æ√“–«à“°“√∑’Ë‡Õ“
‰¢à∑ÿ°„∫¡“‰«â „πµ–°√â“„∫‡¥’¬«°—π ∑—Èß™’«‘µ ∑—Èß∫√‘…—∑π’È ∏ÿ√°‘®¢÷ÈπÕ¬Ÿà°—∫
credit card Õ¬à“ß‡¥’¬« ‘Ëß∑’Ë®–‡°‘¥¢÷Èπµ“¡¡“ ∂â“‡°‘¥«à“¡’°Æ‡°≥±å„À¡à
ÕÕ°¡“ À√◊Õ«à“ªí≠À“∑“ß¥â“π∏ÿ√°‘® credit card ¡—π¡’ ∫√‘…—∑°Á®–‡ ’¬À“¬
À¡¥ º¡§ÿ¬°—π·≈â«°—∫ Board ∫√‘À“√«à“‡√“ “¡“√∂∑’Ë®– √â“ß brand
√â“ß§«“¡πà“‡™◊ËÕ∂◊Õ°—∫≈Ÿ°§â“‰¥â ‡√“®–‡ªìπ§π∑’Ë∑”∏ÿ√°‘®∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ‡ªìπ
æ◊Èπ°àÕπ·≈â«°Á¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®–∑”º≈‘µ¿—≥±åÕ¬à“ßÕ◊Ëπµ“¡‰ªÕ’°‡¬Õ– ‡√“√Ÿâ®—°
≈Ÿ°§â“¡“° „π‚≈°π’È „§√∑’Ë√Ÿâ®—°≈Ÿ°§â“‚¥¬≈–‡Õ’¬¥°Á®–∑” CRM (Customer
Relationship Management) ‰¥â ´÷Ë ß §πæŸ ¥ ∂÷ ß CRM °— π ‡¬Õ–·µà
à«π„À≠à®√‘ßÊ·≈â«‰¡à√Ÿâ«à“§◊ÕÕ–‰√
‡æ√“–«à“º¡¡’ information ¢Õß≈Ÿ°§â“„π
°“√´◊ÈÕ¢ÕßÀ¡¥ ·≈–π’Ë§◊Õ∞“π
¢Õß KTC ¥— ß π—È π º¡∂“¡«à “
KTC §«√®–∑”∫— µ √‡§√¥‘ µ
Õ¬à“ß‡¥’¬«À√◊Õ‡ª≈à“ ∂â“ KTC ¡’
information ¡“°¢π“¥π’È
ªï 2547 ¡’·ºπ®–∑”Õ–‰√∫â“ß
‡√“‰¥â æ‘ Ÿ ® πå „ Àâ ‡ ÀÁ π «à “ ‡√“‡√‘Ë ¡ ∑”
card ”À√—∫°≈ÿà¡‡©æ“–‡®“–®ß¡“°
¢÷Èπ À√◊Õ segmented mini card
mini card ∑’Ë‡√“ÕÕ°¡“π—Èπ‡ªìππ«—µ°√√¡¢Õß Bank of America ∑’Ë
∑”„Àâ¡—π‡°ãÀπàÕ¬ ¡—π‡≈Á°≈ß ‡À¡“–°—∫ °≈ÿà¡§π∑’Ë™Õ∫Õ–‰√∑’Ë·ª≈° VISA
„Àâ√“ß«—≈ Best Innovative Marketing Award ·°à KTC ‡æ√“–«à“
·∑π∑’Ë‡√“®–„Àâ‡ªìπ card ∑’Ë‡≈Á°‡©¬Ê ‡√“‡Õ“ CRM ‡¢â“¡“∫√√®ÿ ‡ªìπ
π«—µ°√√¡°â“«·√° ·≈–∫—µ√ mini ·µà≈–„∫¡’≈—°…≥–‡©æ“–µ—«∑’Ë·µ°
µà“ß°—π «—ππ’È‡√“‡ªî¥µ—«·§¡‡ª≠ Shop Around the World ‡√“∑”
promotion ÕÕ°‰ª º¡®–‡Õ“¥“√“ ‡Õ“§π¥—ß‰ª Shop Around the
World ‡¡◊ËÕ‡ÀÁπ·≈â«·µà≈–§π®–√âÕß «â“« ·≈â«º¡®–∂“¡«à“ ·≈â«§ÿ≥
‰¡àÕ‘®©“‡À√Õ ‡§â“„™â°—πÕ¬à“ßπ—Èπ §π∑’Ë¡’ lifestyle Õ¬à“ßπ—Èπ ‡§â“„™â°—π
Õ¬à“ßπ—Èπ æ«°π—Èπ‰¥â ‘∑∏‘ ∑’Ë®–™π–·≈â«‡√“®–æ“‰ª shopping √Õ∫‚≈°
Õ—ππ’È‡ªìπ¢—Èπ·√°¢Õß Mass Customization
®”π«π∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¡“°‰À¡ „π™à«ß∑’Ëºà“π¡“
KTC ÕÕ°∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ‰ª√«¡·≈â« 800,000 „∫ °Á √â“ß√“¬‰¥â „Àâ°—∫ KTC ¥’
ªï 2546 º¡°Á∑”‰¥âµ“¡‡ªÑ“∑’Ë«“ß‰«â ·µà‡ªìπ‡ªÑ“À¡“¬∑’Ëª√—∫µ“¡°Æ‡°≥±å
„À¡à·≈â« §◊Õ‡¥‘¡∑’ °àÕπ°Æ„À¡à®“°‡¥‘¡∑’Ë°”Àπ¥√“¬‰¥â¢—ÈπµË” 7,500 ∫“∑
‡ªìπ 15,000 ∫“∑ ÕÕ°¡“ ‡√“«“ß‡ªÑ“‰«â«à“®–∑”„Àâ ‰¥â 300,000 ∫—µ√
„πªï 2546 ·µà‡¡◊ËÕ°Æ„À¡àÕÕ°¡“ ‡√“ª√—∫‡ªÑ“„À¡à‡ªìπ 200,000 ∫—µ√
‡√“°Á∑”ÕÕ°¡“‰¥âª√–¡“≥ 180,000-190,000 ∫—µ√ ´÷Ëß°Á„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫‡ªÑ“∑’Ë
«“ß‰«â ·µà«à“‡√“°Á¡’ product Õ◊Ëπ‡¢â“¡“‡ √‘¡¥â«¬ °Á§◊Õ personal loans
”À√—∫ §π∑’Ë¡’√“¬‰¥âµË” ´÷Ëß¡—π°Á™¥‡™¬°—∫‡ªÑ“∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ∑’Ë‡√“‡§¬«“ß‰«â
·µà‡¥‘¡‰¥â
¡“∂÷ß®ÿ¥π’È§‘¥«à“ KTC ª√– ∫§«“¡ ”‡√Á®À√◊Õ¬—ß
·≈â«®√‘ßÊ CRM §◊ÕÕ–‰√ ·≈–¡’ª√–‚¬™πåÕ¬à“ß‰√
CRM (Customer Relationship Management) µâÕß¡’§«“¡√Ÿâ „π‡√◊ËÕß
¢Õß≈Ÿ°§â“‡ªìπÕ¬à“ß¥’ ·≈â«‡ªìπ§«“¡√Ÿâ∑’Ë‡°’Ë¬«°—∫ ∂‘µ‘æÕ ¡§«√ Õ¬à“ß∫—µ√
‡§√¥‘µ®–„Àâ√“¬≈–‡Õ’¬¥∑“ß¥â“π lifestyle ¢Õß§π «à“‡§â“„™â‡ß‘π∑’Ë ‰Àπ
‡§â“´◊ÈÕÕ–‰√ ´◊ÈÕ∫àÕ¬·§à ‰Àπ ·≈â«‡√“°Á “¡“√∂ predict ¬âÕπ°≈—∫‰ª¥Ÿ
personality ¢Õß§πÊπ—Èπ «à“§◊Õ„§√ º¡¡’∑’¡«‘‡§√“–Àåµ√ßπ’È º¡∑” risk
management ∑” credit scoring ∑ÿ°«—ππ’È‡√“‰¡àæŸ¥∂÷ß demographic
geographic °—πÕ’°·≈â« ‡√“∑”‡®“– ‡ªìπ§π ‡Õ“§π∑’Ë≈—°…≥–∫ÿ§≈‘°
§≈â“¬Ê°—π¡“√«¡°—π‡ªìπ°≈ÿà¡Àπ÷Ëß ‡√’¬° Mass Customization „π«—π
¢â“ßÀπâ“ ∂â“º¡‡Õ“ smart label ‰ªµ‘¥µ√ß ‘π§â“∑ÿ°™‘Èπ ∑ÿ°¬’ËÀâÕ «à“
‘ π §â “ ™‘È π ‰Àπ ¢π“¥Õ–‰√ ¬’Ë Àâ Õ ‰Àπ √“§“‡∑à “ ‰À√à ·≈â « º¡¡’ data
warehouse „À≠àæÕ §ÿ≥´◊ÈÕ ∫Ÿà¬’ËÀâÕÕ–‰√ „™âπ“π·§à ‰Àπ „™â¡“°πâÕ¬
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Syrus
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‡ªìπ Good Corporate Citizen
§‘¥«à“Õ–‰√‡ªìπ Key Success
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‰¢âÀ«—¥π°°Á¬—ß‰¡à°√–∑∫
∑√“∫«à “ ‡æ‘Ë ß ‰ª roadshow ∑’Ë µà “ ßª√–‡∑»¡“ ¡“™à « ¬‡≈à “
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‡°“À≈’¡’ªí≠À“‡√◊ËÕß LG π—Èπ KTC §‘¥Õ¬à“ß‰√ §◊Õ ªí≠À“¢Õß‡°“À≈’¡—π
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‡§√¥‘µ ‡≈à“§√à“«Ê§◊Õ ‡§â“‡Õ“∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ ‰ªÕÕ° lottery æ¬“¬“¡®–
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°“√„™â®à“¬‡∑à“π’È·≈â«§ÿ≥®–‰¥â à«π≈¥Õ—µ√“¿“…’ Õ’°Õ¬à“ß°Á§◊Õ transaction
¢Õß∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ¡’À¡“¬‡≈¢ electronics ∑ÿ°Õ—π ‡§â“°Á‡Õ“À¡“¬‡≈¢æ«°π—Èπ
‰ªÕÕ°‡ªìπ lottery ∑’Ë „À≠à∑’Ë ÿ¥„πª√–‡∑» ¥—ßπ—Èπ§π°Á‡≈¬„™â∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ
°—π‡¬Õ–¡“°®π‰¡à√–¡—¥√–«—ß ∏ÿ√°‘®∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ‡≈¬‚µ‡√Á« ·µà«à“∫√‘…—∑∫—µ√
‡§√¥‘µ∫√‘À“√§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß‰¡à‡ªìπ °Á‡≈¬·¬à „§√ ¡—§√¡“°Á „ÀâÀ¡¥‡≈¬ Õ¬à“ß
∫—µ√ KTC ‡√“Õπÿ¡—µ‘‡æ’¬ß 45% ¢Õß®”π«π§π ¡—§√∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ·≈–
personal loans ‡√“Õπÿ¡—µ‘‰ª·§à 30% °«à“Ê ‡∑à“π—Èπ ‡æ√“–«à“‡√“
µâÕß°“√∑”„ÀâÕ—µ√“°“√‡®√‘≠‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß‡√“ —¡æ—π∏å°—∫°”‰√∑’Ë ‰¥â Õ¬à“ß
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KTC ¢Õ ·§à«à“ ¡’«—«·≈â«¡—Ëπ„®«à“¡’¡“°°«à“Àπ÷Ëßµ—« ·≈â«°Á¡’‡¥Á°πâÕ¬°«à“∑’Ë
®–°‘ππ¡ ‰¡àß—Èπ‰¡à¡’π¡∑’Ë‡À≈◊Õ‰ª„Àâ investor «à“π’Ë§◊Õ°”‰√π–
„π à«π¢Õß§”∂“¡Õ◊ËπÊ
°Á‡™àπ«à“ KTC ¡Õß∏ÿ√°‘®µ—«‡Õß„πÕπ“§µÕ¬à“ß‰√ º¡°Á∫Õ°‡≈¬«à“ ‡√“‡ªìπ
Marketing Company ‡√“‡ªìπ Consumer Finance, KTC ¡’ main
business Õ¬Ÿà 4 Õ¬à“ß ·≈â«°Á§ß®–‡ªìπÕ¬à“ßπ’È ‰ªÕ’° 3 ªï¢â“ßÀπâ“ §◊Õ
1.
Credit Card
2.
Personal Loan
3.
Asset Finance
4.
Payment System Products
∑’Ë„™â ‡√“‰¥â 1% card Õ—ππ’È¥’ ”À√—∫∫√‘…—∑´÷Ëß∑’Ëºà“π¡“„™â§ŸªÕß „™â‡ß‘π ¥
∫â“ß °ÁÕ“®®–¡’°“√¬—°¬Õ°°—π‰¥â ·µà«à“∂â“ºà“π√–∫∫π’È°Á∑”‰¡à ‰¥â·≈â«
∏π“§“√°√ÿß‰∑¬¡’ à«π‡°◊ÈÕÀπÿπÕ–‰√∫â“ß „π∞“π–∑’Ë KTC ‡ªìπ
∫√‘…—∑√à«¡
∏π“§“√°√ÿß‰∑¬¡’™àÕß∑“ß°“√®—¥®”Àπà“¬∑’Ë¥’ ¡’ salesman Õ¬Ÿà 14,000 §π
∑—Ë«ª√–‡∑» “¡“√∂°√–®“¬¢“¬ ‘π§â“„Àâ°—∫∑“ß‡√“‰¥â ·≈â«‡√“°Á „Àâº≈
µÕ∫·∑π‡ªìπ§à“ commission
·ºπ·¡à∫∑∑’Ë®–‡Õ◊ÈÕ„Àâ ∏π“§“√∑” retail finance ‰¥â¡“°¢÷Èπ
®–¡’º≈°√–∑∫°—∫ KTC À√◊Õ‡ª≈à“
º¡«à“ Competition makes business healthy. ∫“ß∑’§ÿ≥π—ËßÕ¬Ÿà‡©¬Ê
·≈â«‰¡à¡’§Ÿà·¢àß ¡—ππà“‡∫◊ËÕπ– æÕ¡’§Ÿà·¢àß ¡—π°√–µ◊Õ√◊Õ√âπ¢÷Èπ ‰¡à „™à«à“
§ÿ≥µ◊ËπÕ¬Ÿà§π‡¥’¬« ∂“¡«à“¡—π°√–∑∫°“√¢¬“¬µ—«‰À¡ ‰¡àÀ√Õ°§√—∫ ¢Õß
∫“ßÕ¬à“ß ‡√“·∫°§π‡¥’¬«‰¡à ‰¥âÀ√Õ° ™à«¬°—π∑”®–¥’°«à“ Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë«à“∑”
¢÷Èπ¡“·≈â« „§√‡°Á∫‰¥â¡“°°«à“ „§√‡√Á«°«à“‡°Á∫‰¥â¡“°°«à“ §Ÿà·¢àß ∑’Ë·¢Áß·√ß
∑”„Àâ business healthy
«—π«à“ß∑”Õ–‰√
°Á∑—Ë«Ê‰ª °‘π¢â“« ‡¥‘πÀâ“ß ∂“¡«à“·∫àß‡«≈“Õ¬à“ß‰√°Á‡À¡◊Õπ§πÕ◊Ëπ º¡„Àâ
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‡≈’È¬ß≈Ÿ° º¡«à“¡—π‡ªìπÕ–‰√∑’Ë¥’∑’Ë ÿ¥ ¡—π§◊Õ ‘Ëß∑’Ë∑”„Àâ™’«‘µ‡√“¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ
§π¡“°¢÷Èπ ‡«≈“§ÿ≥∑”ß“π §ÿ≥‡ªìπ‡§√◊ËÕß®—°√ ‡ªìπ§Õ¡æ‘«‡µÕ√å ‡ªìπ
Õ–‰√∑’Ë‡√’¬°«à“ decision making machine ·µà‡«≈“§ÿ≥Õ¬Ÿà°—∫§√Õ∫§√—«
Õ¬Ÿà°—∫§π„π∫â“π §ÿ≥‡ªìπ§π
¡’Õ–‰√®–Ω“°∫Õ°π—°≈ß∑ÿπ
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Õ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫∑’æË Õ‡À¡“– °“√∑’®Ë –„™â‡ß‘π°Ÿ¡â “≈ß∑ÿπ ‰¡àπ“à ®–‡ªìπ‡√◊ÕË ß∑’§Ë «√∑”
À≈“¬§π ‡≈àπ·∫∫ margin, settlement °Á¥’ º¡∂“¡«à“ §ÿ≥‰¥â‡ß‘π¡“°
¢π“¥π—Èπ‰ª∑”Õ–‰√ ·≈â«‰¡à¡Õß°≈—∫‰ª«à“ ∂â“‡ ’¬¡“°·≈â«®–∑”¬—ß‰ß ·≈â«
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‡°‘π 10% °Áπà“®–¥’·≈â« ∂â“ 200 Õ—ππ—Èπ´◊ÈÕÀ«¬ º¡«à“‡¢â“µ≈“¥∑ÿπ Õ¬à“
‡¢â“À¡¥µ—« Õ¬à“‰ª§‘¥«à“ Àÿâπ§◊Õ∑ÿ°Õ¬à“ß º¡‡™◊ËÕ«à“‡√“¡’ Õß¡◊Õ¡’Àπ÷Ëß
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∑ÿπÕ¬à“ß‡¥’¬« ∑”„Àâµ—«‡Õß‡ªìπÀ≈—°¥’°«à“ §πµ—Èß 60 ≈â“π§π √Õ´◊ÈÕ¢Õß
§ÿ≥Õ¬Ÿà ∑”¬—ß‰ß°Á ‰¥â „Àâ‡§â“¡“´◊ÈÕ ‘π§â“§ÿ≥ Õ¬à“À«—ß§«“¡¡—Ëß¡’¢Õß§ÿ≥„π
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∑’Ë¡—π sustainable ·≈â«‡√“√Ÿâ¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥§◊Õ¢Õß∑’Ë‡√“∑”‡Õß
Õ¬à“ß Asset Finance °Á§ß®–ÕÕ°¡“„π°≈“ßªïπ’È ‡™àπ º¡®–∑” finance
”À√—∫√∂¡Õ‡µÕ√å ‰´§å „ÀâÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∂Ÿ°Ê ·≈–Õ¬Ÿà∫π∞“π§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß∑’Ë
º¡§”π«≥·≈â« À√◊Õ«à“ Payment System °Á‡ªìπ fee - based income
µÕππ’È∑’Ë‡√“ soft launch ·≈â«°Á§◊Õ Gas Card À√◊Õ∫—µ√‡µ‘¡πÈ”¡—π∑ÿ°§√—Èß
Syrus
4
S tock Market Outlook
·π«‚πâ¡µ≈“¥ : ‡¥◊Õπ °.æ. - ‡¡.¬ ....§“¥ SET ·°«àßµ—«°√Õ∫ 645 ∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥
SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π SET µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡§“¥«à“ SET „π™à«ß 2 ‡¥◊Õπ
¢â“ßÀπâ“®–·°«àßµ—« „π°√Õ∫ 645 ∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥ °≈¬ÿ∑∏å°“√≈ß∑ÿπ·π–π”„ÀâÀ“®—ßÀ«–‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ‡©æ“–‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫
µ—«≈ß ·≈–¢“¬∑”°”‰√‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ ¬°‡«âπ∑’Ë√–¥—∫„°≈â 650 ®ÿ¥ „Àâ – ¡Àÿâπ‡æ◊ËÕ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„π√–¬–¬“«
‚¥¬ ≥ √–¥—∫ SET ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 753 ®ÿ¥ „ÀâπÈ”Àπ—°°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„πÀÿâπª√–¡“≥ 40% SYRUS ·π–π”À¡«¥ ◊ËÕ “√
(Àÿâπ‡¥àπ SATTEL, SHIN) ∏π“§“√ (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ KTB) ‡ß‘π∑ÿπ (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ NFS) æ≈—ßß“π (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ BANPU)
Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ PF, SPALI) ·≈–√“¬µ—«Õ◊ËπÊ ‰¥â·°à TPIPL, PRANDA, PATKL
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
À“®—ßÀ«–‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫µ—«≈ß ·≈–¢“¬∑”°”‰√‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫
µ—«¢÷Èπ ¬°‡«âπ∑’Ë√–¥—∫„°≈â 650 ®ÿ¥ „Àâ´◊ÈÕ‡æ◊ËÕ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„π√–¬–¬“«
SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π SET µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥ Ÿß°«à“
SET ªí®®ÿ∫—π ∑’Ë 753.24 ®ÿ¥ (11 °.æ.) ª√–¡“≥ 20% Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡§“¥
«à“§«“¡°—ß«≈‰¢âÀ«—¥π° ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë Fed ®–¢÷Èπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ √«¡∂÷ß«—π∑’Ë 1 ‡¡.¬.
®–‡ªìπ«—π ÿ¥∑â“¬∑’Ë¡’°“√ºàÕπº—π°“√«“ßÀ≈—°ª√–°—π ”À√—∫∫—≠™’ net
settlement ®–‡ªìπªí®®—¬∑’Ë∑”„Àâ SET „π™à«ß 2 ‡¥◊Õπ¢â“ßÀπâ“¬—ß§ß·°«àß
µ—« ‚¥¬§“¥«à“ SET ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®–·°«àßµ—«„π°√Õ∫ 645 ∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥
°≈¬ÿ∑∏å°“√≈ß∑ÿπ·π–π”„ÀâÀ“®—ßÀ«–‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ‡©æ“–‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫µ—«≈ß
·≈–¢“¬∑”°”‰√‡¡◊ËÕ SET ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ ‰¡à§«√‰≈à´◊ÈÕ ¬°‡«âπ SET ª√—∫µ—«
≈ß„°≈â 650 ®ÿ¥ „Àâ – ¡Àÿâπ‡æ◊ËÕ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„π√–¬–¬“« ≥ √–¥—∫ SET
ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 753.24 ®ÿ¥ (11 °.æ.) „ÀâπÈ”Àπ—°°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„πÀÿâπª√–¡“≥ 40%
”À√—∫À¡«¥Õÿµ “À°√√¡∑’Ë SYRUS ·π–π”‰¥â·°à Õ◊Ë “√ (Àÿπâ ‡¥àπ SATTEL,
SHIN) ∏π“§“√ (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ KTB) ‡ß‘π∑ÿπ (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ NFS) æ≈—ßß“π (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ
BANPU) Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å (Àÿâπ‡¥àπ PF, SPALI) ·≈–√“¬µ—«Õ◊ËπÊ ‰¥â·°à
TPIPL, PRANDA, PATKL
ªí®®—¬∑’ËµâÕß®—∫µ“¡Õß
·π«‚πâ¡ SET ‡¥◊Õπ °.æ. - ‡¡.¬. ....§“¥ SET ·°«àßµ—«°√Õ∫ 645
∂÷ß 770 ®ÿ¥ SYRUS ‡ÀÁπ«à“ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π‚¥¬√«¡¢Õß‰∑¬¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫
∑’Ë¥’ π—∫ πÿπ‚¥¬‡»√…∞°‘®¢Õßª√–‡∑»∑’Ë§“¥«à“¬—ß§ß®–¢¬“¬µ—«„π√–¥—∫
6.5% - 7% ¢≥–∑’Ë·¡â SET ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 117% „πªï 2547 ·µà P/E
¬—ß§ßµË”°«à“ª√–‡∑»Õ◊ËπÊ„π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§ ¥—ßπ—Èπ SYRUS §“¥«à“º≈µÕ∫·∑π
Syrus
¢Õß SET „πªï 2547 ®–¬—ß§ßÕ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’ ‚¥¬ª√–‡¡‘π SET µ“¡
ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥ Ÿß°«à“ SET ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 753.24 ®ÿ¥
(11 °.æ.) ª√–¡“≥ 20% Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡À“°æ‘®“√≥“º≈µÕ∫·∑π„πªï
2545 À“°≈ß∑ÿπ„π SET ∑’Ë√–¥—∫µË” ÿ¥ ·≈–¢“¬∑’Ë√–¥—∫ Ÿß ÿ¥ ®–‰¥âº≈
µÕ∫·∑πª√–¡“≥ 40% ¥—ßπ—Èπ„πªï 2547 À“°µâÕß°“√√–¥—∫º≈µÕ∫·∑π
®“°°“√≈ß∑ÿπ®“°®ÿ¥µË” ÿ¥¢Õß SET ∑’Ë 40% ‡∑à“°—∫ªï 2545 SET ®–
µâÕßª√—∫µ—«≈ß¡“°àÕπ∑’Ë√–¥—∫ª√–¡“≥ 645 ®ÿ¥ (§‘¥º≈µÕ∫·∑π®“°‡ªÑ“
SET ∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥) ª√–°Õ∫°—∫„π√–¬–π’È¬—ß§ß¡’§«“¡°—ß«≈ª√–‡¥Áπ‰¢â
À«—¥π° §«“¡°—ß«≈µàÕ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë Fed ®–¢÷Èπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ √«¡∂÷ß«—π∑’Ë 1 ‡¡.¬.
®–‡ªìπ«—π ÿ¥∑â“¬∑’Ë¡’°“√ºàÕπº—π°“√«“ßÀ≈—°ª√–°—π ”À√—∫∫—≠™’ net
settlement ¥—ßπ—Èπ§“¥«à“ SET „π™à«ß 2 ‡¥◊Õπ¢â“ßÀπâ“®–·°«àßµ—«
·≈–¬—ß‰¡à¢÷Èπ·√ßÊ ‚¥¬ §“¥«à“ SET ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®–ª√—∫µ—«≈ß¡“∑’Ë√–¥—∫
ª√–¡“≥ 645 ®ÿ¥ ¢≥–∑’Ë°√Õ∫∫π¢Õß°“√·°«àßµ—«∫«°¢Õß SET §“¥«à“
®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë√–¥—∫ª√–¡“≥ 770 ®ÿ¥
∂‘µ‘º≈µÕ∫·∑π¢Õß SET „π™à«ß 5 ªï∑’Ëºà“π¡“
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
µË” ÿ¥
329.59
250.60
265.22
305.19
350.98
Ÿß ÿ¥ % º≈µÕ∫·∑π
545.91
66%
498.46
99%
342.56
29%
426.45
40%
794.01
126%
∑’Ë¡“ : Syrus Research
µâπªï
356.68
498.46
272.03
305.19
351.52
ª≈“¬ªï % º≈µÕ∫·∑π
481.92
35%
269.19
-46%
303.85
12%
356.48
17%
772.15
120%
5
SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π SET µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ¢—ÈπµË” 903 ®ÿ¥ ¡’√–¥—∫
P/E 14 ‡∑à“ ·≈–À“°ªí®®—¬≈∫§≈’Ë§≈“¬ SET ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ¢÷Èπ Ÿß∂÷ß 1,097 ®ÿ¥
Ÿß°«à“‡ªÑ“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊πÈ ∞“π æ‘®“√≥“®“°√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬¢ÕßÀÿπâ ∑’Ë SYRUS
∑”°“√«‘‡§√“–Àå®”π«π 138 ∫√‘…—∑ SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π SET µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ
∞“πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥ ¡’√–¥—∫ P/E §‘¥®“°§“¥°“√≥å°”‰√„πªï 2547 ∑’Ë
14 ‡∑à“ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ À“°§«“¡°—ß«≈µàÕª√–‡¥Áπ‰¢âÀ«—¥π° ·≈–°“√ª√—∫
¢÷πÈ Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’¬È §≈’§Ë ≈“¬≈ß ´÷ßË §“¥«à“®–‡ªìπ™à«ßª≈“¬‰µ√¡“ 2/2546 SET
¡’ ‚Õ°“ ª√—∫µ—«∫«°·√ß¢÷πÈ ·≈–¡’ ‚Õ°“ Ÿß°«à“‡ªÑ“¢—πÈ µË”µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊πÈ ∞“π
∑’Ë 903 ®ÿ¥ ∑—Èßπ’È „π™à«ß°àÕπ«‘°ƒµ‘‡»√…∞°‘®„πªï 2537 - 2538 P/E ‡©≈’Ë¬
¢Õß SET Ÿß∂÷ß 19.5 ‡∑à“ ´÷Ëß„πªï 2547 À“°„Àâ√–¥—∫ P/E ¢Õß SET ∑’Ë 17
‡∑à“ SET ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 1,097 ®ÿ¥
ªï 2546 º≈µÕ∫·∑π SET Ÿß∂÷ß 117%...P/E µ≈“¥œ ‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 7 ‡∑à“
‡ªìπ 13.7 ‡∑à“ „πªï 2546 π—∫«à“‡ªìπªï∑Õß¢Õß°“√≈ß∑ÿπ SET ª√—∫µ—«
‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 117% ®“°µâπªï 356.48 ®ÿ¥ ªî¥ª≈“¬ªï∑’Ë 772.15 ®ÿ¥ ¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥œ
(Market Cap) ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 141% ®“° 1,986 ≈∫. ‡ªìπ 4,790 ≈∫. ¢≥–∑’Ë
P/E ¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 7.0 ‡∑à“ ‡ªìπ 13.7 ‡∑à“ ·≈– P/BV ‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 1.4
‡∑à“ ‡ªìπ 2.7 ‡∑à“ (¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈®“°µ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å) ‡¡◊ËÕ‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫°—∫µ≈“¥œ
Õ◊ËπÊ „π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§ SET ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥‡™àπ°—π µ“¡¥â«¬µ≈“¥Àÿâπ
Õ‘π‚¥π’‡™’¬´÷Ëß‡æ‘Ë¡ 63% ∑—Èßπ’È ‰∑¬ ·≈–Õ‘π‚¥π’‡™’¬ ‡ªìπ 2 ª√–‡∑»∑’Ë¡’
√–¥—∫ P/E µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥„π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§
µ—Èß·µà ‘Èπªï 2546 ∂÷ß 11 °.æ. 2547 SET µ‘¥≈∫ 2.4% ¢≥–∑’Ëµ≈“¥Õ◊Ëπ
„π¿Ÿ ¡‘ ¿ “§¬— ß ∫«°...§“¥‡ªì π ‡æ’ ¬ ß°“√ª√— ∫ ∞“π ‡æ√“–º≈µÕ∫·∑π
SET ªï 2546 Ÿß¡“° ”À√—∫ªï 2547 µ—Èß·µà ‘Èπªï 2546 ∂÷ßªí®®ÿ∫—π (31
∏.§. 2546 - 11 °.æ. 2547) SET ª√—∫µ—«≈¥≈ß 2.4% (SET 11 °.æ. Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë
7.53.24 ®ÿ¥) ∑’Ëπà“ —ß‡°µ§◊Õ µ≈“¥ÀÿâπÕ◊ËπÊ „π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§¬—ß§ßª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷Èπ
∑—Èßπ’È SYRUS ‡™◊ËÕ«à“°“√∑’Ëµ—Èß·µà ‘Èπªï 2546 ∂÷ßªí®®ÿ∫—π SET ª√—∫µ—«≈¥≈ß
¢≥–∑’Ëµ≈“¥Õ◊ËπÊ „π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§¬—ß§ßª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èππ—Èπ ‰¡à ‰¥â‡ªìπ‡æ√“–ªí®®—¬
æ◊Èπ∞“π À√◊Õ·π«‚πâ¡°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢Õß‡»√…∞°‘®‰∑¬¥âÕ¬°«à“ª√–‡∑»Õ◊ËπÊ
·µà‡ªìπ‡æ√“–„πªï 2546 ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ SET ¡’º≈µÕ∫·∑π∑’Ë Ÿß¡“° ¥—ßπ—Èπ°“√
ª√—∫∞“π„π√–¬– —Èπ®÷ß‡ªìπ ‘Ëß∑’Ë‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ‰¥â ‡æ√“–∂÷ß·¡â SET ª√—∫µ—«≈¥≈ß
„πªï 2547 ·µàº≈µÕ∫·∑πµ—Èß·µàªï 2546 ¬—ß§ß Ÿß°«à“ª√–‡∑»Õ◊ËπÊ
º≈µÕ∫·∑π¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ∑’Ë ”§—≠
¥—™π’
Õ‘π‚¥π’‡´’¬
‰µâÀ«—π
‡°“À≈’„µâ
ŒàÕß°ß
‘ß§‚ª√å
¡“‡≈‡´’¬
À√—∞Õ‡¡√‘°“
‰∑¬
≠’ªË πÿÉ
∑’Ë¡“ : Syrus Research
31 ∏.§. 2546
691.9
5,890.7
810.7
12,575.9
1,764.5
793.9
10,456.9
772.2
10,676.6
% º≈µÕ∫·∑π
11 °.æ. 2547
769.8
6,454.4
876.3
13,524.8
1,868.5
818.2
10,737.7
753.2
10,365.4
11.3%
9.6%
8.1%
7.5%
5.9%
3.1%
2.7%
-2.4%
-2.9%
À“°À—°√“¬°“√æ‘‡»…µà“ßÊ P/E ¢Õß SET ∑’Ë ª√–¡“≥ 15 ‡∑à“ ¬—ß§ß
µË”°«à“À≈“¬Ê ª√–‡∑»„π¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§ SYRUS ‡™◊ËÕ«à“ªí®®—¬À≈—°∑’Ë∑”„Àâ SET
ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß¡“°„πªï 2546 ‡ªìπ‡æ√“–µ≈“¥‰∑¬∂Ÿ°‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫
ª√–‡∑»Õ◊Ë π Ê „π¿Ÿ ¡‘ ¿ “§ ¢≥–∑’Ë ‡ »√…∞°‘ ® ¡’ ° “√¢¬“¬µ— « „π√–¥— ∫ ∑’Ë ¥’
‡ÀÁπ‰¥â®“°µ≈“¥Àÿâπ‰∑¬ ·≈–Õ‘π‚¥π’‡™’¬ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥„πªï
2546 ·≈– ‡ªìπ 2 ª√–‡∑»∑’Ë¡’√–¥—∫ P/E µË” ÿ¥ ”À√—∫„πªí®®ÿ∫—π
∂÷ß·¡â SET ®–ª√—∫µ—«¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß¡“°®“°µâπªï 2546 ·µà P/E ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 13.6
‡∑à“ (¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈¢Õßµ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å ≥ SET «—π∑’Ë 11 °.æ. ∑’Ë 753.24 ®ÿ¥)
¬—ß§ßµË”°«à“ª√–‡∑»Õ◊Ëπ ‚¥¬¡’‡æ’¬ßÕ‘π‚¥π’‡™’¬∑’Ë P/E µË”°«à“ª√–‡∑»‰∑¬
‚¥¬Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 11 ‡∑à“ ¢≥–∑’Ëª√–‡∑»Õ◊ËπÊ Õ“∑‘‡™àπŒàÕß°ß ¡“‡≈‡™’¬
‘ß§‚ª√å ¡’ P/E ∑’Ë Ÿß°«à“ 20 ‡∑à“ ·≈–∂÷ß·¡â‡¡◊ËÕÀ—°√“¬°“√æ‘‡»…‡™àπ
°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫ ‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È SYRUS ª√–¡“≥ P/E ¢Õß SET
®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 15 ‡∑à“ (§‘¥®“°§“¥°“√≥å°”‰√ªï 2546) ¬—ß§ßµË”°«à“
ª√–‡∑»Õ◊Ëπ ¢≥–∑’Ë§“¥°“√Õ—µ√“°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢Õß GDP „πªï 2547 ∑’Ë
ª√–¡“≥ 6.5% - 7% π—Èπ¬—ß§ßÕ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’
æ◊Èπ∞“π‡»√…∞°‘®‰∑¬¬—ß§ß¥’ SYRUS ‡™◊ËÕ«à“æ◊Èπ∞“π‡»√…∞°‘®‰∑¬¬—ß
§ß¥’ æ‘®“√≥“®“°
● GDP ¬—ß‡µ‘∫‚µ„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß §“¥ªï 2547 ‚µ 6.5 - 7% ®“° 9 ‡¥◊Õπ
·√°ªï 2546 ¢¬“¬µ—« 6.3%
● °“√∫√‘‚¿§„πª√–‡∑»¬—ß§ß¥’ °“√∫√‘‚¿§ ·≈–≈ß∑ÿπ¿“§‡Õ°™π‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
„πÕ—µ√“∑’Ë Ÿß
● Õ—µ√“°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢Õß àßÕÕ°‡√‘Ë¡™–≈Õ ¥ÿ≈°“√§â“‡°‘π¥ÿ≈‡√‘Ë¡≈¥≈ß „π
§√÷ËßÀ≈—ß¢Õßªï 2546 ·µà¬—ß‰¡àπà“Àà«ß
● Õ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ§àÕ¬Ê ‡æ‘Ë¡ ∫“ßÕÿµ “À°√√¡‡√‘Ë¡¢“¬°”≈—ß
°“√º≈‘µÕ’°§√—Èß
● °“√„™â®à“¬¢Õß√—∞∫“≈„π‚§√ß°“√ “∏“√≥Ÿª‚¿§µà“ßÊ
● ∑ÿπ ”√Õß√–À«à“ßª√–‡∑»°≈—∫¡“Õ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫ Ÿß°«à“°àÕπ«‘°ƒµ‘
● Àπ’Èµà“ßª√–‡∑»≈¥≈ßÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß
µ—«‡≈¢‡»√…∞°‘®∑’Ë ”§—≠
(Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ %)
GDP
°“√∫√‘‚¿§¿“§‡Õ°™π (PCI)
°“√≈ß∑ÿπ¿“§‡Õ°™π (PII)
àßÕÕ°
π”‡¢â“
¥ÿ≈°“√§â“ (≈∫.)
º≈º≈‘µ¿“§Õÿµ “À°√√¡ (MPI)
Õ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ (%)
√“¬®à“¬¿“§√—∞∫“≈
¥ÿ≈ß∫ª√–¡“≥ (≈∫.)
∑ÿπ ”√Õß√–À«à“ßª√–‡∑» (≈∫)
Àπ’Èµà“ßª√–‡∑» (External Debt)(us mn)
Àπ’È¿“§√—∞ (us mn.)
Àπ’È¿“§‡Õ°™π (us mn)
2545
5.7
3.7
23.4
5.3
3.9
176.7
8.5
59.3
5.2
(78.6)
1,679.6
59.5
23.3
36.2
2546
6.3*
5.1
13.1
16.6
16.8
195.9
12.3
66.2
(2.4)*
16.4
1,668.7
52.5**
17.0**
35.5**
* 9 ‡¥◊Õπ·√°ªï 2546
** æ.¬. 2546
∑’Ë¡“ :BOT, Syrus Research
Syrus
6
ç‰¢âÀ«—¥π°é °¥¥—πµ≈“¥„π√–¬– —Èπ SYRUS §“¥«à“ SET „πªï 2547
®–¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 903 ®ÿ¥ ·µà„π√–¬– —Èπ§“¥«à“ª√–‡¥Áπ‰¢âÀ«—¥π°®–°¥¥—π SET
‰¡à „Àâ¢÷Èπ·√ßÕ¬à“ßπâÕ¬„πÕ’° 1 ‡¥◊Õπ¢â“ßÀπâ“ ‚¥¬∂÷ß·¡âÀ“°æ‘®“√≥“
¡Ÿ≈§à“°“√ àßÕÕ°‰°à∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ªï≈– 4 - 5 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. §‘¥‡ªìπª√–¡“≥
1.4% ¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“ àßÕÕ°√«¡ À√◊Õ 0.4% ¢Õß GDP ·≈–°“√∫√‘‚¿§‰°à
¿“¬„πª√–‡∑»Õ’°ª√–¡“≥ªï≈– 5 - 6 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. À√◊ÕÕ’°ª√–¡“≥ 0.4%
¢Õß GDP √«¡°—π GDP ®–≈¥≈ß‰¡à‡°‘π 0.8% Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡À“°¬—ß§ß
¡’°“√°”Àπ¥‡¢µæ◊Èπ∑’Ë√–∫“¥ (æ◊Èπ∑’Ë ’·¥ß) ·≈–¬—ß§ß∑”≈“¬‰°à∑’Ëµ‘¥‡™◊ÈÕ
‰¥â ‰¡àÀ¡¥ √«¡∂÷ß¡’§«“¡°—ß«≈µàÕ°“√°≈“¬æ—π∏å¢Õß‡™◊ÈÕ‚√§‰ª Ÿà —µ«å
Õ◊ËπÊ À√◊Õ°≈“¬æ—π∏å®π “ “√∂√–∫“¥®“°§π‰ª Ÿà§π SYRUS ‡™◊ËÕ«à“®–
°√–∑∫µàÕ§«“¡‡™◊ËÕ¡—Ëπ¢ÕßºŸâ∫√‘‚ ¿§ ´÷Ëß®–∑”„Àâ‡°‘¥º≈≈∫µàÕ‡»√…∞°‘®
„π«ß∑’Ë°«â“ß¢÷Èπ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®– àßº≈°√–∑∫·∫∫≈Ÿ°‚´à ‰ª Ÿà¿“§
∏ÿ√°‘®Õ◊ËπÕ“∑‘‡™àπ∑àÕß‡∑’Ë¬« ·≈–°“√∫√‘‚¿§¿“¬„πª√–‡∑»
§«“¡°— ß «≈‡ø¥¢÷È π ¥Õ°‡∫’È ¬ ...Õ’ ° ªí ® ®— ¬ ∑’Ë ° √–∑∫®‘ µ «‘ ∑ ¬“°“√≈ß∑ÿ π
µ≈“¥‰∑¬„π√–¬– —È π À≈—ß®“°∑’Ëª√–™ÿ¡§≥–°√√¡°“√∏π“§“√°≈“ß
À√—∞œ (‡ø¥) §√—Èß≈à“ ÿ¥„π™à«ß‡¥◊Õπ ¡.§. ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ ‰¥â „Àâ§«“¡‡ÀÁπ∂÷ß
‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë‡ø¥®–µ—¥ ‘π„®¢÷Èπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡√Á«¢÷Èπ ®“°‡¥‘¡„π™à«ßªï 2546 ‰¥â „Àâ
§«“¡‡ÀÁπ«à“®–§ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬√–¥—∫µË”‰ªÕ’°√–¬–Àπ÷Ëß ∑”„Àâ‡√‘Ë¡¡’°“√
§“¥°“√≥å «à “ ‡ø¥ ¡’ ‚ Õ°“ ¢÷È π ¥Õ°‡∫’È ¬ „π™à « ßª≈“¬‰µ√¡“ 2 À√◊ Õ
‰µ√¡“ 3/2547 Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ °“√∑’Ë‡ø¥®–¢÷Èπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬À√◊Õ‰¡àπ—Èπ¬—ß§ß
°È”°÷Ëß ·≈–≈à“ ÿ¥§«“¡‡ÀÁπ¢Õßª√–∏“π‡ø¥ Õ≈—π °√’π ·µπ µàÕ ¿“
§Õß‡°√ „π«—π∑’Ë 11 °.æ. ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ ™’È∫àß«à“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬¬—ß§ß®–Õ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫
‡¥‘ ¡ Õ’ ° √–¬–Àπ÷Ë ß ¢≥–∑’Ë µ ≈“¥‰∑¬ ·¡â Õ— µ √“º≈µÕ∫·∑π¢Õßµ≈“¥
µ√“ “√Àπ’È (yield) ‰¥âª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ¡“„π√–¬–Àπ÷Ëß √«¡∂÷ß∏π“§“√∫“ß·Ààß
‡√‘Ë¡ª√—∫‡æ‘Ë¡Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘πΩ“°√–¬–¬“« ·µà SYRUS §“¥«à“Õ—µ√“
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘πΩ“°√–¬– —Èπ √«¡∂÷ß¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘π°Ÿâ®–¬—ß§ß‰¡àª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ„πªï
2546 ‡π◊ËÕß®“°‡¡◊ËÕæ‘®“√≥“®“° ¿“æ§≈àÕß à«π‡°‘π„π√–∫∫‡ÀÁπ‰¥â®“°
Õ—µ√“ ‘π‡™◊ËÕµàÕ‡ß‘πΩ“° ∑’Ë√–¥—∫ª√–¡“≥ 70% ·¡âªï 2547 ‘π‡™◊ËÕ¡’
‚Õ°“ ‡æ‘Ë¡„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’¢÷Èπ¡“° SYRUS §“¥«à“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘πΩ“°√–¬– —Èπ
√«¡∂÷ ß ¥Õ°‡∫’È ¬ ‡ß‘ π °Ÿâ ¢ Õß‰∑¬®–ª√— ∫ µ— « ‡æ‘Ë ¡ ¢÷È π Õ¬à “ ß‡√Á « ∑’Ë ÿ ¥ ª√–¡“≥
°≈“ßªï 2548 ¥—ßπ—Èπ§«“¡°—ß«≈µàÕ°“√¢÷Èπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬¢Õß Fed ®–°√–∑∫
µàÕ®‘µ«‘∑¬“°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„πµ≈“¥‰∑¬ ‡æ’¬ß·§à„π√–¬– —Èπ ·≈–§“¥«à“ SET
¡’ ‚Õ°“ ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ Ÿà 903 ®ÿ¥„π™à«ß§√÷ËßÀ≈—ß¢Õßªï 2547
Syrus
°“√«“ßÀ≈— ° ª√–°— π ”À√— ∫ ∫— ≠ ™’ net settlement ºà Õ πº— π ∂÷ ß ·§à
1 ‡¡.¬...SET ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ™–≈Õ§«“¡√âÕπ·√ß ¡“µ√°“√§«∫§ÿ¡°“√‡°Áß
°”‰√„π≈—°…≥– net settlement ´÷Ëß°”Àπ¥„Àâ≈Ÿ°§â“«“ß ‘π∑√—æ¬å‡æ◊ËÕ
‡ªìπÀ≈—°ª√–°—π°àÕπ°“√´◊ÈÕ¢“¬„πÕ—µ√“‰¡àµË”°«à“ 10% ¢Õß«ß‡ß‘π∑’Ë ‰¥â√—∫
Õπÿ¡—µ‘„Àâ´◊ÈÕ¢“¬ net settlement π—Èπ‰¥â‡√‘Ë¡∫—ß§—∫„™âµ—Èß·µà 1 ∏.§. 2546
·µà‡π◊ËÕß®“°¡’°“√ºàÕπº—π∂÷ß 1 ‡¡.¬. 2547 ®÷ß¬—ß‰¡à¡’º≈°√–∑∫µàÕµ≈“¥œ
‡µÁ¡∑’Ë ¥—ßπ—ÈπÀ≈—ß®“° 1 ‡¡.¬. ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë®– àßº≈„Àâµ≈“¥œ ™–≈Õ§«“¡
√âÕπ·√ß≈ß
ß∫°“√‡ß‘π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ¡’ ‚Õ°“ °√–µÿâπµ≈“¥ ¢≥–∑’Ë SET ¬—ß§ß¡’
ªí®®—¬≈∫ ·µàªí®®—¬∫«°∑’Ë®–‡¢â“¡“„π√–¬–„°≈âÊ π’È ¡’‡™àπ°—π §◊Õ°“√
ª√–°“»º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ¢Õß∫®. ´÷Ëß SYRUS §“¥«à“
®–¥’µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‚¥¬‡©æ“–À¡«¥Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å ´÷Ëß¡’°“√‡√àß‚Õπ∫â“π¿“¬„π
‘Èπªï 2546 °àÕπ ‘Èπ ÿ¥¡“µ√°“√ π—∫ πÿπ∑“ß¿“…’
7
T op 10 Favorite Stocks
Àÿâπ´◊ÈÕ≈ß∑ÿπ 10 Õ—π¥—∫·√° (°.æ. - ‡¡.¬. 2547)
(Bt)
PF
SPALI
SATTEL
NFS
TPIPL
SHIN
KTB
BANPU
PATKL
PRANDA
Close End-04
10-Feb target
13.50 20.00
4.72 6.90
36.50 53.00
15.70 22.00
37.50 52.00
36.75 50.00
11.20 15.00
133.00 177.00
5.05 6.50
7.05 9.00
% exp P/E (x)
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
return 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
48.1
9.7
8.2
2.3
2.2
3.6 39.5 43.7
1.4
1.7
6.0
6.2
46.2
2.8
3.8
1.1
0.9
8.0
5.8 49.7 25.0
1.7
1.2
4.3
5.5
45.2 15.7 25.9
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.5 14.2
7.4
2.3
1.4 18.0 18.8
40.1
7.8
6.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
5.7 11.4 10.4
2.0
2.3 14.4 15.0
38.7
4.1
3.8
0.9
0.7
- 21.6 19.5
9.0 10.0 43.8 51.3
36.1 11.1 12.3
9.9 11.5
3.1
3.3 29.5 22.5
3.3
3.0
3.7
3.2
33.9 14.4
8.6
1.7
1.5
4.2
4.5 11.6 17.2
0.8
1.3
6.7
7.5
33.1 20.7
4.7
2.4
1.6
2.3
2.3 11.6 34.9
6.4 28.1 55.9 81.1
28.7
3.5
8.3
1.0
1.5
3.0
3.6 31.1 23.8
1.4
0.6
5.3
3.3
27.7
5.4
4.5
0.9
0.8
9.9
9.9 18.1 18.7
1.3
1.6
7.7
9.2
∑’Ë¡“: ΩÉ“¬«‘‡§√“–ÀåÀ≈—°∑√—æ¬å ‰´√— PF (√“§“ªî¥ 13.50 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 20.00 ∫“∑)
°√–π—ÈπÀ“°æ‘®“√≥“∂÷ßÕ—µ√“ à«π PE ªï 47 ∑’Ë√«¡Àÿâπ®“°°“√·ª≈ß ¿“æ
„∫ ”§—≠· ¥ß ‘∑∏‘Ï∑—ÈßÀ¡¥‡¢â“¡“·≈â«°Á¬—ßµË”‡æ’¬ß7.6 ‡∑à“´÷Ëß∂◊Õ«à“µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥
„πÀ¡«¥®÷ß·π–π”„Àâ ç´◊ÈÕé
°“√‡¢â“¡“¢Õß≈Ÿ°Àÿâπ®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’Èµâπ∑ÿπ 10 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ
®”π«π 112.4 ≈â“πÀÿâπ„π‡¥◊Õπ °.æ. π’È Õ“® àßº≈°√–∑∫„Àâ√“§“ª√—∫µ—«
≈ß„π™à«ß —ÈπÊ ´÷Ëß∂◊Õ‡ªìπ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë¥’ „π°“√‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ≈ß∑ÿπ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ
∞“π¢Õß PF ∂◊Õ«à“·¢Áß·°√àß¡“° ‚¥¬À≈—ß®“°ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È‡ √Á®
‡√’¬∫√âÕ¬·≈â«®–∑”„ÀâÕ—µ√“Àπ’È ‘π ÿ∑∏‘µàÕ∑ÿπ (Net D/E) ≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õ‡æ’¬ß
1.1 ‡∑à“®“° 1.8 ‡∑à“„πªï 45 ¢≥–∑’Ë∑’Ë¥‘π„π¡◊Õªí®®ÿ∫—ππ—ÈπÕ¬Ÿà „π∑”‡≈∑’Ë
“¡“√∂æ—≤π“‰¥âÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß∂÷ß 2.7 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. ‡¡◊ËÕ√«¡°—∫∑’Ë¥‘π∑’Ë´◊ÈÕ‡¢â“
¡“„À¡à·≈â«®–‰¥â¡Ÿ≈§à“‚§√ß°“√∂÷ß 3.8 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. ´÷Ëß‡æ’¬ßæÕµàÕ°“√æ—≤π“
∂÷ßªï 52 πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß‰¥â√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå®“°°“√∑’Ë∫√‘…—∑°√ÿß‡∑æ∫â“π·≈–∑’Ë¥‘π
´÷Ëß‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑¬àÕ¬®–‡¢â“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„πµ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å„πªïπ’È ´÷Ëß®–∑”„Àâ
‡°‘¥°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢Õß‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπÕ’°¡“° ”À√—∫º≈ª√–°Õ∫°“√ªï 46 ·≈– 47
π—Èπ§“¥«à“®–¬—ß‡µ‘∫‚µÕ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫ ŸßÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‚¥¬§“¥«à“ªï 46 ®–¡’
°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π 869 ≈∫. (1.09 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“°“√
‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß 62.7% à«πªï 47 §“¥«à“®–¡’°”‰√ 1.3 æ—π≈∫. (1.65 ∫“∑
µàÕÀÿâπ) §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß 52% ´÷Ëß Ÿß‡ªìπÕ—π¥—∫µâπÊ ¢Õß
Õÿµ “À°√√¡ ®÷ß·π–π”„Àâ ç´◊ÈÕé
ªí®®ÿ∫—π SATTEL ¡’√“¬‰¥â®“°‰∑¬§¡∑—Èß 3 ¥«ßªï≈– 3.5 - 3.6 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑
´÷Ëß‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥â∑’Ë¡—Ëπ§ß·πàπÕπ¥â«¬ —≠≠“√–¬–¬“«∂÷ß 10 ªï ·µà°“√„™â°”≈—ß
°“√º≈‘µ∑’Ë‡°◊Õ∫‡µÁ¡·≈â« ∑”„ÀâÕ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ„πÕπ“§µ¡’®”°—¥ iPSTAR
®÷ß‡ªìπ·À≈àß√“¬‰¥â „À¡à∑’Ë®–¡’§«“¡ ”§—≠Õ¬à“ß¡“°‡π◊ËÕß®“°¢π“¥¢Õß
¥“«‡∑’¬¡∑’Ë„À≠à°«à“‰∑¬§¡∑—Èß 3 ¥«ß√«¡°—π À“° iPSTAR „™â°”≈—ß°“√
º≈‘µ‡µÁ¡∑’Ë·≈â«®– √â“ß√“¬‰¥â „Àâª√–¡“≥ US$400 ≈â“π/ªï À√◊Õª√–¡“≥
16,000 ≈∫. ‡∑’¬∫°—∫√“¬‰¥âµàÕªïªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 6 æ—π≈∫./ªï ·µàªï·√°
¢Õß°“√≈ß∑ÿπ ´÷Ëß√“¬‰¥â‡√‘Ë¡∑¬Õ¬‡¢â“¡“ µ√ß¢â“¡°—∫µâπ∑ÿπ·≈–§à“„™â®à“¬∑’Ë
‡¢â“¡“‡µÁ¡∑’Ë ∑”„Àâ°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ªï 2547 ≈¥≈ß∂÷ß 53.8% ´÷Ëß∂â“æ‘®“√≥“®“°
PE π—∫«à“Àÿâπ SATTEL §àÕπ¢â“ß·æß ·µà‡¡◊ËÕæ‘®“√≥“®“°°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥∑’Ë
®–‡¢â“¡“„πÕπ“§µ ¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß DCF ®–‡∑à“°—∫ 53.00 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ ‚¥¬¡’Õ—µ√“
à«π≈¥ (WACC) 9.5% ´÷Ëß Ÿß°«à“√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π∂÷ß 45.2% ®÷ß·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé
SPALI (√“§“ªî¥ 4.72 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 6.90 ∫“∑)
NFS (√“§“ªî¥ 14.80 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 22.00 ∫“∑)
‡√“§“¥«à“ SPALI ®–¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß°”‰√„π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ∑’Ë Ÿß
∑’ Ë ¥ÿ „πÀ¡«¥‡¡◊ÕË ‡∑’¬∫√“¬‰µ√¡“ ‚¥¬§“¥«à“®–¡’°”‰√ª°µ‘‡∑à“°—∫ 669 ≈∫.
(1.05 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß 290% q-q ·≈– 93%
y-y ∑—Èßπ’È‡π◊ËÕß®“°°“√‚ÕπÀâÕß™ÿ¥„π‚§√ß°“√»ÿ¿“≈—¬ ª“√å§ 3 ‡¢â“¡“‡ªìπ
®”π«π¡“° àßº≈„Àâ∑—Èß√“¬‰¥â·≈–Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ Ÿß ´÷Ëß®“°°”‰√∑’Ë Ÿßπ’È
àßº≈„Àâ SPALI ¡’°“√®à“¬ªíπº≈∑’ Ë ßŸ µ“¡‰ª¥â«¬ ‚¥¬À“°„Àâ∫√‘…∑— ®à“¬ªíπº≈∑’Ë
25% ¢Õß°”‰√®–‰¥â‡ß‘πªíπº≈‡∑à“°—∫ 0.38 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“º≈
µÕ∫·∑π®“°‡ß‘πªíπº≈∂÷ß 8.0% ®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π ·µàÀ“°„Àâ®à“¬ªíπº≈∑’Ë
40% ¢Õß°”‰√µ“¡π‚¬∫“¬°“√®à“¬ªíπº≈¢Õß∫√‘…—∑®–‰¥â‡ß‘πªíπº≈∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß
0.67 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“º≈µÕ∫·∑π 14.2% Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡°“√‚Õπ∑’Ë
‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ®”π«π¡“°„πªï 46 ®–∑”„Àâ°”‰√¢Õßªï 47 ‡µ‘∫‚µ≈¥≈ß ·µà∂÷ß
√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß NFS ∑’Ë 14.80 ∫“∑ ¡’ P/E ·≈– P/BV µË”‡æ’¬ß 6.6 ‡∑à“
·≈– 1 ‡∑à“ µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ SYRUS
§“¥«à“ NFS ®–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„πÕ—µ√“ 40% ¢Õß°”‰√ªï 2546 À√◊Õ 0.80
∫“∑ §‘ ¥ ‡ªì π Õ— µ √“‡ß‘ π ªí π º≈µÕ∫·∑π 5.4% À√◊ Õ À“°ª√–‡¡‘ π ·∫∫
√–¡—¥√–«—ßªíπº≈®à“¬‰¡à§«√πâÕ¬°«à“ªï 2545 §◊Õ 0.50 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“
‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π¢—ÈπµË” 3.4% NFS ¡’°“√„Àâ∫√‘°“√∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π§√∫
«ß®√∑—Èß ‘π‡™◊ËÕ√“¬¬àÕ¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∏ÿ√°‘® «“≥‘™∏π°‘® √«¡∂÷ß∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„π∫≈.
∏π™“µ‘ ∫®.∏π™“µ‘ª√–°—π¿—¬ ∫®.∏π™“µ‘´Ÿ√‘°ª√–°—π™’«‘µ ·≈–∫≈®.∏π™“µ‘
‘Èπªï 2546 °≈ÿà¡∫√‘…—∑∏π™“µ‘¡’ ‘π∑√—æ¬å 167,748 ≈∫. Ÿß„°≈â‡§’¬ß BOA
·≈– Ÿß°«à“ DTDB NFS ¡’°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¢Õß ‘π∑√—æ¬å ·≈–°”‰√°â“«°√–‚¥¥
®“°°“√‡√àß‡æ‘Ë¡≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ „πªï 2546 °”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡∂÷ß
SATTEL (√“§“ªî¥ 36.50 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 53.00 ∫“∑)
Syrus
8
73% °”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡ 55% ”À√—∫ªï 2547 ·¡â®–µâÕß‡√‘Ë¡®à“¬¿“…’Õ—µ√“
‡µÁ¡·µà§“¥°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘®–‡æ‘Ë¡ 12% ‡ªìπ 2.27 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ
TPIPL (√“§“ªî¥ 37.50 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 52.00 ∫“∑)
À≈—ß®“° “¡“√∂‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ‰¥â 1.1 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. À√◊Õª√–¡“≥ 300 ≈â“π‡À√’¬≠
À√—∞ ·≈–π”‰ª™”√–Àπ’Èµ“¡ —≠≠“ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π ´÷Ëß®–‰¥â√—∫
¬°‡«âπ‡ß‘πµâπ, ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ·≈–¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–„π à«π∑’Ëº‘¥π—¥√«¡
‡ªìπ°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È 5,049 ≈∫. πÕ°®“°π’È¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥â
¡“°∑’Ë TPIPL ®–π”‡ß‘π à«π∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ‰¥â‡°‘π¡“™”√–Àπ’È‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’°ª√–¡“≥
5,000 ≈∫. ÿ¥∑â“¬·≈â«Àπ’È ‘π√«¡¢Õß TPIPL ®–≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õª√–¡“≥ 600
≈â“π‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞ à«π°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π ªï 46 ¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ 4,783 ≈∫. (9.4
∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ)·≈– SYRUS §“¥°“√≥å«à“ªï 47 ®–¡’°”‰√ 8,059 ≈∫. §‘¥‡ªìπ
°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π 4,286 ≈∫. À√◊Õ 5.3 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ √“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß
TPIPL ¡’ P/E §‘¥®“°°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ß 7 ‡∑à“ 48 §“¥°“√≥å
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 47 ‡∑à“°—∫ 52 ∫“∑ ·≈–®–‡ªìπ 58 ∫“∑ („π°√≥’∑’Ë
‰¥â√—∫¬°‡«âπ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–Õ’° 4,866.5 ≈∫.) §‘¥‡ªìπ P/E 9.81-10.94 ‡∑à“
SHIN (√“§“ªî¥ 36.75 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 48.00 ∫“∑)
√“§“ªí ® ®ÿ ∫— π ¢Õß SHIN ‰¥â ª √— ∫ µ— « ≈ß¡“®π¡’ ¡Ÿ ≈ §à “ µ≈“¥ 108,241
≈â“π∫“∑ µË”°«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“ ‘π∑√—æ¬å ÿ∑∏‘∑’Ë§”π«≥®“°√“§“µ≈“¥ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß
Àÿâπ„πæÕ√åµ§◊Õ 132,176 ≈â“π∫“∑ π—∫«à“√“§“Àÿâπ SHIN undervalue Õ¬Ÿà
18.1% ‚§√ß √â“ß°“√≈ß∑ÿπ¢Õß SHIN ∑’Ëªí®®ÿ∫—ππÈ”Àπ—°°«à“ 80.7% Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë
ADVANC ´÷Ëß¡’§«“¡·¢Áß·°√àß∑—Èß¥â“π°“√µ≈“¥ °“√‡ß‘π ·≈–°“√∫√‘À“√
à«π SATTEL ´÷Ëß°≈—∫‡¢â“¡“Õ¬Ÿà „ π™à « ß¢Õß°“√≈ß∑ÿ π „À¡à Õ’ ° §√—È ß °— ∫
iPSTAR ·µà°Á “¡“√∂À“·À≈àß‡ß‘π∑ÿπ‰¥â‡Õß ·≈–¡’»—°¬¿“æ„π°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ
Ÿß‡¡◊ËÕ Broadband ‡¢â“¡“‡°’Ë¬«¢âÕß°—∫™’«‘µª√–®”«—π¡“°¢÷Èπ ”À√—∫ ITV
À≈—ß®“°∑’Ë ‰¥â≈¥§à“ —¡ª∑“π°Á “¡“√∂∑”°”‰√‰¥â∑—π∑’ à«π°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„À¡à
„π Air Asia ·≈– Capital OK ∂◊Õ‡ªìπ∫∑æ‘ Ÿ®πå§«“¡ ”‡√Á®¢Õß SHIN
Õ’°§√—Èß ·µà‡√“‡™◊ËÕ«à“∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡à·≈–∏ÿ√°‘®¥—Èß‡¥‘¡®– “¡“√∂‡°◊ÈÕÀπÿπ°—π‰¥â¥’
Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ À“°º‘¥æ≈“¥ ¡Ÿ≈§à“§«“¡‡ ’¬À“¬®–‡∑à“°—∫ 801 ≈â“π∫“∑
´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ‡æ’¬ß 26% ¢Õß‡ß‘π ¥∑’Ë¡’ À√◊Õ 1.4% ¢Õß ‘π∑√—æ¬å∑—ÈßÀ¡¥
·≈–‡™◊ËÕ«à“®–‰¡à°√–∑∫°—∫°“√®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ ”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π
§√÷ËßªïÀ≈—ßªï 2546 §“¥«à“ SHIN ®–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ 0.45 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ §‘¥‡ªìπ
Õ—µ√“µÕ∫·∑π 1.2% ”À√—∫ 6 ‡¥◊Õπ
KTB (√“§“ªî¥ 11.20 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 15.00 ∫“∑)
KTB ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ®à“¬ªíπº≈ ”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2546 (§“¥ª√–°“»
¡’.§. 2547) Ÿß∂÷ß 0.45 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ À√◊Õ§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“ªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 4.2%
®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π 11.20 ∫“∑ ®“°π‚¬∫“¬‡æ‘Ë¡Õ—µ√“ªíπº≈®à“¬‡ªìπ 60%
¢Õß°”‰√ KTB ¡’∞“π‡ß‘π°Õß∑ÿπ¢—Èπ∑’Ë 1 ∑’Ë 10.4% Ÿß∑’Ë ÿ¥ ∑”„Àâ “¡“√∂
¢¬“¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ„π‡™‘ß√ÿ° ¢≥–∑’Ë “¡“√∂√—°…“ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‰«â ‰¥â
NPL Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 8% ´÷Ëß KTB µ—Èß ”√Õß‰«â 75% ¢Õß NPL °”‰√µàÕÀÿâπªï 2546
Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 0.78 ∫“∑ §“¥«à“°”‰√µàÕÀÿâπ®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 1.30 ∫“∑„πªï 2547
‡π◊ËÕß®“°ªï 2546 KTB µ—Èß ”√Õß„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß §“¥«à“°”‰√°àÕπ ”√Õßªï
2547 ®–‡æ‘Ë¡ 30% ®“° 1.09 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ ‡ªìπ 1.43 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ ·≈–§“¥ BV/
share ‘Èπªï 2547 ∑’Ë 7.5 ∫“∑ √“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¡’ P/E ∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ß 8.6 ·≈– P/
BV 1.5 ‡∑à“ ´÷Ëßπ—∫«à“µË”‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∏π“§“√Õ◊Ëπ √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬∑’Ë 15 ∫“∑
¡’ P/E 11.5 ‡∑à“ ·≈– P/BV 2 ‡∑à“
Syrus
BANPU (√“§“ªî¥ 133.00 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 177.00 ∫“∑)
√“§“∂à“πÀ‘π¬—ß§ß¡’·π«‚πâ¡‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπµàÕ‡π◊ËÕßπ—∫µ—Èß·µà‰µ√¡“ 4/45 ‡ªìπ
µâπ¡“ (√“§“‡©≈’Ë¬ ªïï 46 Ÿß∂÷ß 35 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞/µ—π) ·≈–§“¥«à“®–ª√—∫
‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 9-10% „πªï 47 ª√–°Õ∫°—∫‡ªìπºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√¥â“π∂à“πÀ‘π
√“¬„À≠à∑’Ë ÿ¥„πª√–‡∑»¥â«¬ ∑”„Àâ‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫Õ¬à“ß¡“° ·≈–„πªï 47
®–¡’°“√‡ªî¥‡À¡◊Õß∂â“πÀ‘π Trubaindo ´÷Ëß¡’°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ 0.3 ≈â“πµ—π
µàÕªï ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 3.0 ≈â“πµ—π„πªï 48 àßº≈„Àâ√“¬‰¥âªï 47-48 ‡æ‘Ë¡
¢÷Èπ¡“° à«π¥â“π∏ÿ√°‘®‰øøÑ“À≈—ß®“°‡¢â“‡ªìπºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„À≠à„π EGCOMP
·≈â«®–‡°‘¥º≈¥’°Á§◊Õ “¡“√∂≈ß∑ÿπ„π‚√ß‰øøÑ“ºà“π∑“ß EGCOMP ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ
ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√‰øøÑÑ“√“¬„À≠à‰¥â §“¥°“√≥å°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ªï 46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 1,423
≈∫. (6.43 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 19% ®“°ªï 45 ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 336%
‡ªìπ 7,512 ≈∫. (28.05 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) „πªï 47 ‡π◊ËÕß®“°¡’°”‰√æ‘‡»…®“°
°“√¢“¬Àÿâπ RATCH „Àâ °øº. ª√–¡“≥ 6,000 ≈∫. ¢≥–∑’Ë§“¥«à“°”‰√
®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π (‰¡à√«¡√“¬‰¥â®“°‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ ·≈–Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π)
®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 128% ®“° 426 ≈∫. „πªï 46 ‡ªìπ 971 ≈∫. „πªï 47 ”À√—∫
ªï 48 §“¥«à“®–¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 2,356 ≈∫. (8.80 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß
90% ®“°ªï 47 (§‘¥®“°°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ªï 47 ∑’Ë ‰¡à√«¡°”‰√æ‘‡»…®“°°“√¢“¬
RATCH)
PATKL (√“§“ªî¥ 5.05 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 6.50 ∫“∑)
§“¥«à“À≈—ß®“° ∂“π°“√≥å√–∫“¥¢Õß‰¢âÀ«—¥π°„π‡Õ‡™’¬¬ÿµ‘ ºŸâ‡≈’È¬ß‰°à®–
¡“∑”ø“√å¡„π√–∫∫ªî¥¡“°¢÷Èπ ·≈– PATKL ®–‰¥â√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå ‡π◊ËÕß®“°
‡ªìπºŸâπ”„πµ≈“¥ √–∫∫§«“¡‡¬Áπ ”À√—∫Õÿµ “À°√√¡Õ“À“√ ( à«π·∫àß
µ≈“¥œ 60 - 70%) √«¡∂÷ßÕÿµ “À°√√¡°“√·ª√√Ÿª‰°à ‚¥¬‡ªìπºŸâ√—∫®â“ß
∑”√–∫∫∑”§«“¡‡¬Áπ ”À√—∫‚√ßß“π‰°à·™à·¢Áß¢Õß∑—Èß Àø“√å¡ ·≈–À≈“¬
‚§√ß°“√¢Õß CPF πÕ°®“°π’È PATKL ®–‰¥â√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå®“°π‚¬∫“¬ àß
‡ √‘¡„Àâ ‰∑¬‡ªìπ»Ÿπ¬å°≈“ß„π°“√º≈‘µÕ“À“√‡æ◊ËÕ°“√ àßÕÕ°¢Õß¿“§√—∞œ
∫√‘…—∑‰¥â·µ°æ“√å®“° 10 ∫“∑ ‡ªìπ 1 ∫“∑ ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ„Àâ°—∫ºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ‡¥‘¡
√«¡∂÷ß·®°«Õ√å·√π∑å ·≈–Àÿâπªíπº≈ „π‡¥◊Õπ ¡.§. 2547 ·≈–§“¥Àÿâπ‡æ‘Ë¡
∑ÿπ®–‡¢â“¡“‡∑√¥„π™à«ßª≈“¬‡¥◊Õπ °.æ. 2547 ®–™à«¬·°âªí≠À“∑“ß¥â“π
¿“æ§≈àÕß¢ÕßÀÿâπ∑’ËÀ¡ÿπ‡«’¬π„π°√–¥“π √“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß PATKL ¡’
P/E µË”‡æ’¬ß 8.3 ‡∑à“
PRANDA (√“§“ªî¥ 7.05 ∫“∑, √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ 9.00 ∫“∑)
‡ªìπºŸâπ”„π∏ÿ√°‘®º≈‘µ·≈–®—¥®”Àπà“¬‡§√◊ËÕßª√–¥—∫Õ—≠¡≥’∑’Ëµ—«‡√◊Õπ∑”
¥â«¬‚≈À–∑Õß§”·≈–‡π◊ÈÕ‡ß‘π ‡æ◊ËÕ°“√ àßÕÕ° SYRUS ‡ÀÁπ«à“ PRANDA
‡ªì π Àÿâ π ∑’Ë πà “ π„® „π·ßà ¢ ÕßÕ— µ √“‡ß‘ π ªí π º≈µÕ∫·∑π∑’Ë Ÿ ß ∂÷ ß 9.9%
ª√–°Õ∫°— ∫ ·π«‚πâ ¡ °“√‡µ‘ ∫ ‚µ Ÿ ß „πÕπ“§µ®“°°“√‡ªî ¥ ‚√ßß“π„π
ª√–‡∑»®’π ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“®–‡ªìπÕ’°Àπ÷Ëßµ≈“¥„À≠à ∑’Ë¡’»—°¬¿“æ„π°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ
Ÿß¢Õß PRANDA πÕ°®“°π’È ®ÿ¥·¢Áß¢Õß PRANDA Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë§«“¡ “¡“√∂
„π°“√√—°…“√–¥—∫Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ ‚¥¬°“√ºà“π§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß‡√◊ËÕß§à“‡ß‘π·≈–
√“§“‚≈À–∑’Ëª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ ·≈–§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß¥â“πÕ—µ√“°“√·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π ‰ª¬—ß
≈Ÿ°§â“ ´÷Ëß‡ÀÁπ‰¥â®“°Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¡“Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 39.2% „π‰µ√¡“ 3/
2546 ¢≥–∑’Ë „π‰µ√¡“ 3/2545 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 38.5% ·≈–¬Õ¥¢“¬„π™à«ß
9 ‡¥◊Õπ·√°¢Õßªï 2546 ∑’Ë¬—ß¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µª√–¡“≥ 4% ∂÷ß·¡â«à“
§à“‡ß‘π¥Õ≈≈à“√å À√—∞œ ‰¥âÕàÕπ§à“≈ßÕ¬à“ß¡“°„πªï 2546 π’È SYRUS
§“¥«à“ °”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘„πªï 2546 ¢Õß PRANDA ®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 1.31 ∫“∑ ·≈–
®–®à“¬ªíπº≈ 0.70 ∫“∑
9
I ndustry Trend
∏ÿ√°‘®°“√‡°…µ√
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 10.87
P/BV (x) 0.90
Index
53.15
Market cap 48,087
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
Recommend Close
6-Feb
CFRESH
HOLD
3.26
CM
BUY
48.00
CPF
SELL
3.90
GFPT
SELL
20.00
HFT
BUY
28.00
LST
BUY
24.20
TUF
BUY
28.50
TVO
SELL
14.10
S&P
BUY
25.75
UPOIC
BUY
45.00
UVAN
BUY
25.00
SSF
BUY
2.86
TIPCO
BUY
6.10
End-04
Target
3.50
60.00
3.20
18.00
43.50
35.00
38.50
12.00
34.50
54.00
35.00
3.30
8.50
%exp P/E P/BV %yield ROE(%)
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
7.4 11.6 0.2 4.6 8.4
25.0 7.2 0.9 8.3 12.4
(17.9) 12.2 0.9 4.1 4.3
(10.0) 10.0 0.7 5.0 6.7
55.4 10.5 0.8
- 8.2
44.6 8.0 1.5 8.7 18.9
35.1 8.9 2.0 7.6 22.5
(14.9) 17.7 3.9 2.8 18.6
34.0 7.4 1.2 7.4 0.2
20.0 6.6 1.3 8.4 26.5
40.0 6.4 2.4 7.8 37.1
15.4 6.5 0.5 6.3 8.2
39.3 8.7 2.4 3.5 28.4
º≈¢Õß‚√§√–∫“¥‰¢âÀ«—¥π°∑’Ë‡√‘Ë¡√–∫“¥µ—Èß·µàª≈“¬ªï 2546 ∑”„ÀâÀ≈“¬
ª√–‡∑»Àâ“¡π”‡¢â“‰°à®“°‰∑¬ ´÷Ëß∑’Ë°√–∑∫°—∫°“√ àßÕÕ°¢Õß‡√“¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥
§◊Õ°“√∑’Ë≠’ËªÿÉπ·≈–¬ÿ‚√ªÀâ“¡π”‡¢â“‰°à ‰∑¬ ‡æ√“–∑—Èß 2 µ≈“¥∂◊Õ‡ªìπµ≈“¥
À≈—°¢Õß‰∑¬¡’ —¥ à«π√«¡°—π°«à“ 80% ¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“°“√ àßÕÕ°‰°à∑—ÈßÀ¡¥
Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ √“¬‰¥â®“°‰°à ßà ÕÕ°¡’¡≈Ÿ §à“ª√–¡“≥ 4 À¡◊πË ≈â“π∫“∑/ªï À√◊Õ
§‘¥‡ªìπ‡æ’¬ß 0.4% ¢Õß GDP ¥—ßπ—Èπ „π°√≥’∑’Ë ‰∑¬‰¡à “¡“√∂ àßÕÕ°‰¥â
π“π∂÷ß 6 ‡¥◊Õπ ®–°√–∑∫°—∫ GDP ‡æ’¬ß 0.2% ·≈–„π°√≥’∑’Ë CPF ·≈–
GFPT ‰¡à “¡“√∂ àßÕÕ°‰¥â§√÷Ëßªï·√° °”‰√¢Õß CPF „πªï 2547 ®–≈¥≈ß
30.1% à«π°”‰√¢Õß GFPT ≈¥≈ß 47.7% √“§“Àÿâπ¢Õß CPF „π°√≥’∑’Ë
‡≈«√â“¬∑’Ë ÿ¥®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 3.20 ∫“∑ „π¢≥–∑’Ë GFPT ‡∑à“°—∫ 20 ∫“∑ πÕ°®“°
π’È TVO ´÷Ëß√“¬‰¥âÀ≈—° 60% ¡“®“°°“°∂—Ë«‡À≈◊Õß·≈–øŸ≈·øµ´Õ¬´÷Ëß„™â
„π°“√º≈‘µÕ“À“√ —µ«å√«¡∂÷ß‰°à¥â«¬ ‡√“ª√–‡¡‘π«à“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘¢Õß TVO ªï
2547 ®–≈¥≈ß 19.1% ·≈– EPS ¬—ß∂Ÿ°°√–∑∫®“° Dilution ¢Õß TVOW1 ”À√—∫∏ÿ√°‘®°ÿâß àßÕÕ°¬—ß∂Ÿ°°√–∑∫®“°°“√øÑÕß∑ÿà¡µ≈“¥¢Õß À√—∞œ
πÕ°®“°π’È¿“«– ‘π§â“≈âπµ≈“¥¬—ß§ß¡’Õ¬Ÿà„Àâ√“§“°ÿâß¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π
√–¥—∫µË”µàÕ‰ª
Source: SET(Setsmart), Syrus estimates
∏π“§“√
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 15.44
P/BV (x) 1.78
Index
245.94
Market cap 693,573
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
BAY
BUY
12.10
BBL
BUY
97.00
BOA
BUY
4.52
BT
BUY
6.65
DTDB
BUY
3.82
IFCT
BUY
5.25
KBANK
BUY
55.00
KTB
BUY
11.20
SCB
BUY
47.50
SCIB
BUY
25.25
TMB
BUY
4.56
End-04
target
17.00
125.00
5.50
7.80
71.00
15.00
59.00
33.00
-
%exp P/E(x) P/BV(x) %yield ROE(%)
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
40.5 8.0 1.0 3.7 12.7
23.8 10.1 1.6 3.0 22.3
21.7 9.2 1.4
- 15.2
17.3 30.2 0.8
- 2.7
- 6.7 1.7
- 25.1
- 7.1 0.6
- 8.6
29.1 9.9 2.3 3.0 23.2
33.9 8.6 1.5 4.5 17.2
24.2 9.4 1.8 3.8 19.1
26.9 9.1 1.5 4.4 16.3
- 8.1 1.6
- 20.2
º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ¢ÕßÀ¡«¥∏π“§“√ °”‰√®“°°“√
¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß ‚¥¬‡©æ“–√“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘¢ÕßÀ≈“¬
∏π“§“√‡æ‘Ë¡„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’ ·≈–ªí®®—¬∫«°∑’Ë ”§—≠§◊Õ§“¥«à“ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ¿“§∏ÿ√°‘®
„πªï 2547 ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ¡“° ´÷Ëß®– àßº≈∫«°µàÕ√“¬‰¥â¥Õ°
‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘ πÕ°®“°π’È°“√‰∂à∂Õπ SLIPs/CAPs ®–™à«¬„Àâ§à“„™â®à“¬¥Õ°‡∫’È¬
≈¥≈ß·≈–°”‰√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß¡’π—¬ ”§—≠ ´÷Ëß∏π“§“√∑’Ë¡’ SLIPs/CAPs ‰¥â·°à
BAY, BBL, DTDB, KBANK, TMB √«¡∂÷ß§“¥«à“∏π“§“√ à«π„À≠à®–
≈â“ß¢“¥∑ÿπ – ¡·≈–‡√‘Ë¡®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ ªí®®—¬‡ ’Ë¬ß¢ÕßÀ¡«¥§◊ÕÕ—µ√“
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬„πµ≈“¥µ√“ “√Àπ’È∑’Ëª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷Èπ¡’ ‚Õ°“ àßº≈„Àâ°”‰√®“°‡ß‘π
≈ß∑ÿπ≈¥≈ß Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ SYRUS ‰¥âª√–‡¡‘πº≈°√–∑∫„π√“§“‡ªÑ“
À¡“¬·≈â« ªí®®ÿ∫π— Àÿπâ ∏π“§“√∑ÿ°µ—«¡’√“§“µË”°«à“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬„π√–¥—∫∑’´Ë Õ◊È ‰¥â
·µà‡¥àπ ÿ¥ SYRUS ·π–π” KTB
Syrus
10
«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 13.82
P/BV (x) 3.14
Index
7,674.91
Market cap 500,863
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
CCP
BUY
33.00
DCC
BUY
21.90
SSI
BUY
33.25
TGP
BUY
4.98
VNG
BUY
13.10
MS
BUY
2.56
Q-CON
HOLD
18.10
SINGHA
BUY
19.20
TPIPL
BUY
37.50
TYCN
BUY
16.40
End-04
target
48.00
30.00
43.00
6.00
17.00
3.70
19.00
28.00
52.00
22.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
45.5 9.7 2.3 4.1 23.8
37.0 10.7 4.4 6.5 40.5
29.3 11.79 2.2 3.0 19.0
20.5 13.8 1.7
- 12.2
29.8 12.1 3.7 4.2 30.5
44.5 36.6 1.2
- 4.1
5.0 21.0 4.6 1.4 22.1
45.8 10.3 1.1 5.2 10.4
38.7 3.8 0.7
- 19.5
34.1 11.2 1.2 3.5 10.5
¿“«–∏ÿ√°‘®Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å∑’Ë¬—ß¢¬“¬µ—«‰¥âÕ¬à“ß¥’µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‡ªìπªí®®—¬∑’Ë
∑”„Àâ‡√“§“¥«à“ª√‘¡“≥§«“¡µâÕß°“√°√–‡∫◊ÈÕß‡´√“¡‘§ ªŸπ´’‡¡πµå ·≈–
‡À≈Á°¬—ß§ß‡µ‘∫‚µ‰¥â¥’„πªï 2547 ‡√“§“¥«à“§«“¡µâÕß°“√°√–‡∫◊ÈÕß‡´√“¡‘§
„πª√–‡∑»„πªï 2547 ®–¢¬“¬µ—«‰¡àµË”°«à“ 10% ·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé DCC
·≈– UMI πÕ°®“°π’È°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢ÕßÕÿµ “À°√√¡¬“π¬πµå ´÷Ëß¡’°“√„™â
‡À≈Á°‡ªìπ«—µ∂ÿ¥‘∫ ”§—≠„π°“√º≈‘µ ™à«¬ π—∫ πÿπ„ÀâÕÿµ “À°√√¡‡À≈Á°„π
ª√–‡∑»¢¬“¬µ—«‰¥âÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß‡√“·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé SSI √«¡∑—Èß MS ·≈–
NSM ‚¥¬§“¥«à“ MS ®–‡√‘Ë¡∑”°”‰√‰¥â „πªï 2547 ‡ªìπªï·√° à«π NSM
·¡â®–¬—ß¡’º≈¢“¥∑ÿπ ·µà°Á®–øóôπµ—«Õ¬à“ß¡’π—¬ ”§—≠µ—Èß·µàªï 2548 ‡ªìπµâπ
‰ª®“°Õÿµ “À°√√¡‡À≈Á°∑’Ë¬—ß‡µ‘∫‚µ‰¥âµàÕ ‡π◊ËÕß ”À√—∫ª√‘¡“≥°“√º≈‘µ
°“√®”Àπà“¬ªŸπ´’‡¡πµå √«¡∑—Èß√“§“¬—ß§ß∑√ßµ—«Õ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß ·π–π”
ç´◊ÈÕé CCP
◊ÕË “√
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 12.17
P/BV (x) 3.55
Index
92.77
Market cap 467,402
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
ADVANC
BUY
84.50
AIT
BUY
43.25
IEC
SELL
11.80
INET
BUY
9.00
JAS
SELL
9.90
MFEC
BUY
8.10
MLINK
SELL
9.95
SAMART
SELL
8.90
SATTEL
BUY
36.50
SHIN
BUY
36.75
SIM
BUY
17.40
TA
SELL
8.30
TT&T
HOLD
5.20
UCOM
HOLD
42.00
End-04
target
95.00
65.00
7.00
12.00
7.00
13.00
8.00
6.50
53.00
50.00
20.00
6.50
5.30
62.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
12.4 13.3 3.8 4.6 28.5
50.3 11.9 2.8 3.2 23.6
(40.7) nm 0.9
- (12.4)
33.3 16.7 2.9 3.7 17.4
(29.3) 7.0 0.3 5.1 4.2
60.5 12.7 2.7 4.0 21.6
(19.6) 28.4 2.4 1.8 13.1
(27.0) 13.7 4.4
- 32.0
45.2 25.9 1.9 1.5 7.4
36.1 12.3 3.0 3.3 22.5
14.9 17.2 3.6 2.3 20.9
(21.7) nm 11.5
- (22.9)
1.9 nm 1.0
- (0.2)
47.6 12.2 1.7
- 13.9
Syrus
°“√π”§à“‡™◊ËÕ¡‚¬ß‚§√ß¢à“¬ (Interconnection) ¡“„™â¬—ß‡ªìπª√–‡¥Áπ
”§—≠∑’Ë®–¡’º≈°√–∑∫µàÕ√“¬‰¥â¢Õß∫√‘…—∑„π°≈ÿà¡ ◊ËÕ “√Õ¬à“ß¡’π—¬ ”§—≠
´÷Ëß‡√“§“¥«à“®–¡’°“√π”¡“„™â „πªï 2547 ºŸâ∑’Ë®–¡’√“¬√—∫®“°§à“‡™◊ËÕ¡‚¬ß
‚§√ß¢à “ ¬¡“°∑’Ë ÿ ¥ §◊ Õ ºŸâ ∑’Ë ¡’ ‚ §√ß¢à “ ¬·≈–∞“π≈Ÿ ° §â “ ¡“°∑’Ë ÿ ¥ ´÷Ë ß °Á §◊ Õ
ADVANC ¢≥–∑’Ë TAC °Á®– “¡“√∂ª√–À¬—¥§à“ Access Fee ∑’Ëªí®®ÿ∫—π
®à“¬Õ¬Ÿàªï≈– 7 - 8 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ ·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé ADVANC SHIN (‰¥â
ª√–‚¬™πå∑“ßÕâÕ¡®“° ADVANC) ·≈– UCOM (‰¥âª√–‚¬™πå∑“ßÕâÕ¡
®“° TAC) πÕ°®“°π’È °“√„Àâ§«“¡ ”§—≠¢Õß∑—Èß¿“§√—∞·≈–‡Õ°™πµàÕ
√–∫∫‰Õ∑’ ®–‡ªìπªí®®—¬º≈—°¥—π„Àâ¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥¢Õß∏ÿ√°‘®‰Õ∑’ „πªï 2547
‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß ‡√“§“¥«à“Àÿâπ∑’Ë‡°’Ë¬«¢âÕß°—∫∏ÿ√°‘®‰Õ∑’®–¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß
°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ Ÿß∂÷ß 38% - 42% „πªï 2547 ‡√“·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé AIT IRCP
MFEC ·≈– INET ”À√—∫ SATTEL ®–‡µ‘∫‚µ°â“«°√–‚¥¥Õ’°§√—Èß„πªï
2548 À≈—ß iPSTAR ‡√‘Ë¡„Àâ∫√‘°“√‰¥â‡µÁ¡∑’Ë
11
‡§√◊ËÕß„™â‰øøÑ“·≈–§Õ¡æ‘«‡µÕ√å/
™‘Èπ à«πÕ‘‡≈Á°∑√Õπ‘§ å
Index
450.27
Market cap 44,851
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 11.79
P/BV (x) 2.3
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
CCET
CEI
CTW
DELTA
HANA
IT
KCE
KRP
TEAM
Recommend Close
6-Feb
BUY
35.75
BUY
17.00
BUY
10.40
BUY
24.60
BUY
137.00
BUY
9.00
BUY
14.00
BUY
4.64
BUY
3.38
End-04
target
43.00
24.00
14.40
35.00
155.00
11.20
16.00
7.00
4.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
20.3 7.8 1.5 7.7 19.2
41.2 8.5 1.9 9.4 21.9
38.5 10.1 1.0 3.5 10.7
42.3 9.6 2.0 6.0 20.5
13.1 13.5 2.0 3.6 14.9
24.4 16.1 2.9 3.1 31.4
14.3 13.5 1.8 2.1 13.8
50.8 6.7 1.0
- 14.5
18.3 7.5 1.5 3.8 21.5
æ≈—ßß“π
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 12.21
P/BV (x) 3.55
Index
9,893.74
Market cap 770,658
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
BANPU
BUY
133.00
EGCOMP
BUY
78.00
RATCH
BUY
38.25
RPC
HOLD
33.75
SCG
BUY
4.20
¬Õ¥¢“¬‡´¡‘§Õπ¥—°‡µÕ√å∑—Ë«‚≈°„πªï 2546 ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 18.3% ‡ªìπ
US$166.4 æ—π≈â“π ®“° US$140.8 æ—π≈â“π„πªï2545 Ÿß°«à“∑’Ë SIA
§“¥°“√≥å ∑—Èßπ’È ‰¥â·√ß π—∫ πÿπ®“°°“√¢¬“¬µ—«∑“ß‡»√…∞°‘®¢Õß À√—∞œ
„π§√÷ËßªïÀ≈—ß ‡ÀÁπ‰¥â®“° GDP ‰µ√¡“ 3/46 ∑’Ë¢¬“¬µ—« 8.2% ·≈–
4.0% „π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 À“°æ‘®“√≥“‡ªìπ√“¬ ‘π§â“ æ∫«à“¬Õ¥¢“¬
¢Õß ‘π§â“Õÿª°√≥å ◊ËÕ “√‰√â “¬¡’°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë ‚¥¥‡¥àπ „π¢≥–∑’Ë¬Õ¥¢“¬
§Õ¡æ‘«‡µÕ√å à«π∫ÿ§§≈‡√‘Ë¡øóôπµ—«Õ¬à“ß™—¥‡®π Õ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ
¢ÕßÕÿµ “À°√√¡‚¥¬√«¡ Ÿß∂÷ß 95% „π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ¡“§¡ SIA ‰¥â
§“¥°“√≥å¬Õ¥¢“¬‡´¡‘§Õπ¥—°‡µÕ√åªï 2547 «à“®–‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß°«à“ 19%
‚¥¬‡™◊ËÕ«à“¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§‡Õ‡™’¬·ª´‘øî§ (‰¡à√«¡≠’ËªÿÉπ) ‡ªìπ¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§∑’Ë¢¬“¬µ—«‚¥¥
‡¥àπ∑’Ë ÿ¥ HANA ·≈– KCE ‰¥â√—∫º≈ª√–‚¬™πå‚¥¬µ√ß∑’Ë ÿ¥ ·µà‡π◊ËÕß
®“°√“§“Àÿâπ∑—Èß Õßª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ¡“·≈â« à«πµà“ß°”‰√®“°√“§“Àÿâπ‡™◊ËÕ«à“®–
µË”°«à“ DELTA ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ªï 2547 ®–‡µ‘∫‚µ∂÷ß 106.5% ®“°°“√
´◊ÈÕ Ascom
End-04
target
177.00
96.00
53.00
36.00
6.30
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
33.1 4.7 1.6 2.3 34.9
23.1 12.5 1.5 3.2 12.3
38.6 8.3 1.9 4.8 22.9
6.7 9.5 2.4 1.5 25.6
50.0 8.7 1.9 3.3 21.5
°≈ÿà¡‚√ß‰øøÑ“ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√„™â ‰øøÑ“¬—ß§ß‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ „π¢≥–∑’Ë ‚√ß
‰øøÑ“¬—ß¡’Õ¬Ÿà®”°—¥ µ“¡·ºπæ—≤π“°”≈—ß‰øøÑ“ªï 46 (PDP2003) §“¥
°“√≥å«à“§«“¡µâÕß°“√„™â ‰øøÑ“µ—Èß·µàªï 2546-2559 ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡©≈’Ë¬ªï≈–
1,580 ‡¡°–«—µµå ·µà‡™◊ËÕ«à“„πªï 47 ®–¡’°“√∑∫∑«π·ºπ¥—ß°≈à“«Õ’°§√—Èß
(PDP2004) ‡π◊ËÕß®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√„™â ‰øøÑ“‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ Ÿß°«à“∑’Ë§“¥°“√≥å
Àÿâπ·π–π” EGCOMP, RATCH à«π∏ÿ√°‘®∂à“πÀ‘ππ—Èπ¬—ß¡’ ‚Õ°“ ‡µ‘∫‚µ
‰¥âÕ’°¡“°‡™àπ°—π ´÷Ëß‡ªìπº≈ ◊∫‡π◊ËÕß®“°°“√„™â ‰øøÑ“∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ ∑”„Àâ¡’°“√
„™â∂à“πÀ‘π‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¥â«¬ √“§“∂à“πÀ‘π®÷ß‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕßµ—Èß·µà ‰µ√¡“ 4/45 ‡ªìπµâπ¡“ ªí®®ÿ∫—π¡’√“§“‡©≈’Ë¬ 35 US$/µ—π ·π–π” BANPU
ÿ¥∑â“¬‡ªìπ°≈ÿà¡¢Õß‚√ß°≈—ËππÈ”¡—π °Á¬—ß§ß‡µ‘∫‚µ‡™àπ°—π ‡π◊ËÕß®“°‚√ß°≈—Ëπ
πÈ”¡—π„πªí®®ÿ∫—π„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ‡°◊Õ∫‡µÁ¡°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ ∑”„Àâ‡°‘¥¿“«–
Õÿª∑“π à«π‡°‘π ·µà§“¥«à“§«“¡µâÕß°“√∑’‡Ë æ‘¡Ë ¢÷πÈ ®–∑”„Àâ‡°‘¥¿“«–Õÿª ß§å
à«π‡°‘π„π∑’Ë ÿ¥ ∑”„Àâ√“§“πÈ”¡—π¡’ ‚Õ°“ ª√—∫‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
Syrus
12
∫—π‡∑‘ß
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 20.36
P/BV (x) 5.4
Index
59.83
Market cap 131,313
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
BEC
EGV
GMMM
GRAMMY
ITV
MACO
MATCH
MAJOR
MEDIAS
RS
TRAF
UBC
Recommend Close
6-Feb
BUY
20.80
SELL
9.85
BUY
34.00
BUY
19.40
BUY
21.70
BUY
13.00
HOLD
14.20
BUY
15.50
BUY
31.50
BUY
25.75
BUY
3.10
SELL
23.50
End-04
target
26.70
8.90
42.60
22.00
26.00
22.00
14.90
20.60
41.00
33.00
4.60
13.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
28.4 18.7 5.3 4.8 28.5
(9.6) 29.8 4.5 1.5 15.7
25.3 13.5 3.3 4.0 25.2
13.4 15.8 2.3 6.2 15.2
19.8 52.9 6.3
- 11.9
69.2 11.8 3.5 3.4 29.8
4.9 19.2 4.4 2.1 23.0
32.9 16.5 4.2 3.9 28.0
30.2 17.6 4.7 2.9 26.8
28.2 13.4 2.1 3.7 15.9
48.4 13.5 2.2 4.8 16.1
(44.7) 59.5 11.1
- 11.3
‡ß‘π∑ÿπ/À≈—°∑√—æ¬å
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 15.61
P/BV (x) 2.07
Index
1,750.82
Market cap 190,710
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ - À¡«¥‡ß‘π∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
BUY
45.75
BUY
32.50
BUY
14.80
BUY
1.60
BUY
36.50
BUY
1.47
BUY
28.50
KK
KTC
NFS
NVL
SPL
THANI
TISCO
°“√·¢àß¢—π∑’Ë√ÿπ·√ß¢÷Èπ„π∏ÿ√°‘®∫—π‡∑‘ß ‰¡à«à“®–‡ªìπ„π¿“æ¬πµ√å ‰∑¬ ´÷Ëß
‡√’ ¬ °‰¥â «à “ ¡’ ¿ “æ¬πµ√å ‰ ∑¬‡¢â “ „À¡à ‡ °◊ Õ ∫∑ÿ ° — ª ¥“Àå · ≈–πâ Õ ¬‡√◊Ë Õ ß∑’Ë ® –
ª√– ∫§«“¡ ”‡√Á®„π·ßà¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬, ∏ÿ√°‘®‡∑ª ‡æ≈ß ‰¥â·°à GRAMMY
·≈– RS ´÷ßË ¡’§«“¡‡ ’¬Ë ß®“°°“√∑’ºË ∫Ÿâ √‘‚¿§ “¡“√∂À“´◊ÕÈ ‡∑ª ·≈– ´’¥’ ≈–‡¡‘¥
≈‘¢ ‘∑∏‘Ï‰¥â ‰¡à¬“°π—° Õ’°∑—ßÈ ¥â«¬‡∑§‚π‚≈¬’∑∑’Ë π— ¡—¬¢÷πÈ ∑”„Àâ ºŸ∫â √‘‚¿§ “¡“√∂
download ‡æ≈ß®“° internet ‰¥âø√’ , ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√∏ÿ√°‘®‚∑√∑—»πå ∑’Ë
§“¥«à“®–¡’°“√ª√—∫µ—«§√—Èß„À≠àÀ≈—ß®“° °“√‰¥â≈¥ —¡ª∑“π¢Õß ITV‚¥¬
“¡“√∂‡ πÕ√“¬°“√¢à“«·≈– “√ª√–‚¬™πå‰¥â 50% ®“°·µà‡¥‘¡∑’Ë 70% √«¡
∑—Èß°“√∑’Ë ∂“π’ ‚∑√∑—»πå°Õß∑—æ∫°™àÕß 5 ·≈–™àÕß 9 Õ. .¡.∑. ®–‡¢â“¡“®¥
∑–‡∫’¬π„πµ≈“¥¿“¬„πªïπ’È ∑”„Àâ·µà≈– ∂“π’ ‚∑√∑—»πåµâÕß¡’°“√ª√—∫µ—«
‡æ◊ËÕ√—∫°√–· °“√·¢àß¢—π∑’Ë√ÿπ·√ß¢÷Èπ πÕ°®“°π’È®“°Õ—µ√“§à“‚¶…≥“∑“ß
‚∑√∑—»πå∑’Ë¡’√“§“§àÕπ¢â“ß Ÿß ®÷ßÕ“®º≈—°¥—π„ÀâºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√À—π‰ª„™â ◊ËÕ
‚¶…≥“Õ◊Ëπ∑’Ë¡’√“§“∂Ÿ°°«à“·∑π ‡™àπ ◊ËÕ‚¶…≥“°≈“ß·®âß‡ªìπµâπ ‚¥¬√«¡
·≈â«‡√“·π–π”≈¥πÈ”Àπ—°°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„πÀÿâπ°≈ÿà¡∫—π‡∑‘ß ‚¥¬·π–π”‡≈◊Õ°´◊ÈÕ
‡©æ“–∫“ßµ—«„π°≈ÿà¡ §◊Õ MAJOR, MACO ·≈– MEDIAS ‡π◊ËÕß®“°
Õ—µ√“°“√‡®√‘≠‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß·≈–√“§“„πµÕππ’È¬—ß¡’ upside gain ‡©≈’Ë¬Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë
ª√–¡“≥ 44%
End-04
target
55.00
45.00
22.00
2.00
47.00
2.00
40.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
20.2 6.0 1.2 7.2 21.0
38.5 13.5 1.5 2.2 11.7
48.6 6.5 1.0 6.1 10.4
25.0 10.1 0.9 6.0 8.8
28.8 10.2 1.2 4.4 14.5
36.1 8.6 1.0 5.4 12.4
40.4 8.4 1.7 5.9 21.7
Syrus
‡ß‘π∑ÿπ : æ√∫. ∂“∫—π°“√‡ß‘π„À¡à‡ªî¥‚Õ°“ „Àâ ∫ß. ¬°√–¥—∫‡ªìπ
∏π“§“√æ“≥‘™¬å‡µÁ¡√Ÿª·∫∫ ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“∫ß. ∑’Ë¡’»—°¬¿“æ‡æ’¬ßæÕ À≈—°Ê
‰¥â·°à KK, NFS, TISCO ®–¬◊Ëπ¢Õ¬°√–¥—∫„π™à«ß 1 - 6 ‡¥◊Õπ¢â“ßÀπâ“
„π 3 ∫√‘…—∑¢â“ßµâπ NFS πà“ π„®¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°√“§“ª√—∫≈ß¡“¡“°
¢≥–∑’Ëº≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ëßª√–°“»‰¡àπ“π¡“π’ÈÕ¬Ÿà„π
√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’ àßº≈„Àâ√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¡’ P/E ·≈– P/BV ®“°§“¥°“√≥åº≈°“√
¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2547 µË”‡æ’¬ß 6.6 ‡∑à“·≈– 1 ‡∑à“ µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫
∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ πÕ°®“°π’ÈÕ’°ªí®®—¬Àπ÷Ëß∑’Ë∑”„ÀâÀ≈“¬∫ß.
πà“ π„®§◊Õ§“¥°“√≥åÕ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß ‚¥¬∫ß. ∑’Ë§“¥
«à“®–ª√–°“»®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„π™à«ß‡¥◊Õπ ¡’.§. 2547 ·≈–¡’Õ—µ√“‡ß‘π
ªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß°«à“ 4% ‰¥â·°à KK (§“¥®à“¬ 2.75 ∫“∑ Õ—µ√“
‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 6.0%), NFS (§“¥®à“¬ 0.80 ∫“∑ Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈
µÕ∫·∑π 5.4%), SPL (§“¥®à“¬ 1.80 ∫“∑ Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π
4.9%)
13
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ - À¡«¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å
(Bt)
ASL
ASSET
AST
CNS
FNS
KEST
KGI
SSEC
US
ZMICO
Recommend Close
6-Feb
HOLD
11.10
BUY
94.50
BUY
88.50
BUY
81.00
BUY
52.00
SELL
57.00
BUY
5.00
BUY
24.70
HOLD
16.00
BUY
12.00
End-04
target
11.60
142.00
132.00
97.00
62.00
40.00
6.80
37.00
17.00
16.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
4.5 7.5 0.7 6.7 17.2
50.3 7.4 3.8 6.7 58.6
49.2 9.3 3.7 5.4 42.7
19.8 8.9 1.4 5.6 17.1
19.2 5.9 1.7 5.1 30.0
(29.8) 17.5 5.8 1.1 38.9
36.0 7.4 2.0 6.8 29.8
49.8 4.8 1.6 10.1 39.4
6.3 6.0 1.5
- 28.3
33.3 10.2 2.5 4.9 34.6
À≈—°∑√—æ¬å : SYRUS §“¥«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬¢Õßµ≈“¥œ „πªï 2547
®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 30,000 ≈∫. ‚¥¬§“¥«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥√«¡ (market cap)
®–‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 4.8 ≈â“πÊ ∫“∑ ≥ ‘Èπªï 2546 ‡ªìπ 5.8 ≈â“πÊ∫“∑ ≥ ‘Èπªï
2547 ·≈– —¥ à«π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬¢Õßµ≈“¥/¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥√«¡Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 135%
‡∑à“°—∫ªï 2546 ªí®®—¬ π—∫ πÿπÀ≈—°§◊Õ°“√∑’Ë¡’∫√‘…—∑‡¢â“¡“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„π
µ≈“¥œ ¡“°¢÷Èπ °“√·ª√√Ÿª√—∞«‘ “À°‘® °Õß∑ÿπ«“¬ÿ¿—°…å √«¡∂÷ßπ‚¬∫“¬
¢Õß√— ∞ ∫“≈∑’Ë ‡ æ‘Ë ¡ ®–‡æ‘Ë ¡ ‡¡Á ¥ ‡ß‘ π ≈ß∑ÿ π „πµ≈“¥À≈— ° ∑√— æ ¬å ® –™à « ¬‡æ‘Ë ¡
¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π„π√–¬–ª“π°≈“ß∂÷ß¬“« SYRUS ·π–π” ∫≈.
∑’Ë¡’ à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ Ÿß ‡π◊ËÕß®“°®–‰¥â‡ª√’¬∫„π°“√¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘® ‚¥¬ ∫≈.
∑’Ë¡’ à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ „π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 Ÿß 5 Õ—π¥—∫·√°‰¥â·°à KIMENG,
ZMICO, AST, KGI, CNS ‡¥àπ ÿ¥ SYRUS ·π–π” AST
Source: SET (Setsmart), Syrus estimates
¬“π¬πµå
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 20.04
P/BV (x) 3.12
Index
569.39
Market cap 45,693
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
AH
SELL
153.00
BAT-3K
BUY
63.00
IRC
BUY
151.00
SPSU
BUY
12.00
STANLY
BUY
372.00
TRU
BUY
18.30
YUASA
BUY
30.00
HFT
BUY
29.50
End-04
target
140.00
80.00
185.00
14.00
437.00
22.00
40.00
43.50
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
(8.5) 18.3 6.4 0.5 41.5
27.0 8.8 0.9 3.4 11.1
22.5 12.9 3.4 0.2 23.9
16.7 9.5 0.8 4.0 8.7
17.5 13.4 3.8 2.6 32.0
20.2 9.9 2.8 7.5 23.2
33.3 7.2 0.7 7.0 9.8
47.5 11.1 0.9 3.6 30.8
§“¥«à“Õÿµ “À°√√¡√∂¬πµå„πªï 2547 ¬—ß‡µ‘∫‚µµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‚¥¬‰¥â√—∫·√ß
Àπÿπ®“°°“√¢¬“¬µ—«∑“ß‡»√…∞°‘® ·≈–Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë∑√ßµ—«Õ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫
µË” ∫«°°—∫·√ß°√–µÿâπ¬Õ¥¢“¬®“°§à“¬√∂¬πµå ∑—Èßπ’È àßº≈„ÀâÕÿµ “À°√√¡
º≈‘µ™‘Èπ à«π¬“π¬πµå‡µ‘∫‚µ‡™àπ°—π πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß¡’ªí®®—¬‡ √‘¡®“°∫√‘…—∑
º≈‘µ™‘Èπ à«π„πª√–‡∑»®–‰¥â√—∫§” —Ëß´◊ÈÕ®“°§à“¬√∂¬πµåÀ≈—°Ê ∑’Ë‡¢â“¡“µ—Èß
∞“π°“√º≈‘µ„πª√–‡∑»‰∑¬ ‡™àπ §à“¬øÕ√åµ §à“¬®’‡ÕÁ¡ §à“¬Õ’´Ÿ´ÿ ·≈–
§à“¬‚µ‚¬µâ“ ´÷Ëß¡’°“√º≈‘µ√∂°√–∫–‡æ◊ËÕ àßÕÕ°∑—Ë«‚≈°¿“¬„µâ ‚§√ß°“√
IMV (International Multipurpose Vehicle) ‚¥¬§“¥«à“®–‡√‘Ë¡®”Àπà“¬
„πª√–‡∑»„π™à«ß°≈“ßªïπ’È ‡√“‡ÀÁπ«à“ªí®®—¬¥—ß°≈à“« àßº≈¥â“π∫«°µàÕ
TRU ·≈– AH (‡ªìπºŸâº≈‘µ™‘Èπ à«π ”À√—∫‚§√ß°“√ IMV ·≈– ISUZU),
IRC (‡ªìπºŸâº≈‘µ™‘Èπ à«π ”À√—∫‚§√ß°“√ IMV) ·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé TRU ·≈–
AH
Syrus
14
Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 15.88
P/BV (x) 3.04
Index
181.58
Market cap 348,747
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close End-04 %exp P/E(x) P/BV(x) %yield ROE(%)
6-Feb target return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
AMATA
AP
ESTAR
GOLD
HEMRAJ
ITD
LALIN
LH
LPN
MK
NOBLE
PF
PLE
QH
SAMCO
SIRI
SPALI
STECON
SYNTEC
BUY 13.50 16.70 23.7 13.3
BUY 5.60 7.90 41.1 10.5
BUY 3.76 6.70 78.2 125.3
BUY 11.30 15.10 33.6 11.0
BUY 1.32 1.50 13.6 15.4
BUY 113.00 133.00 17.7 20.3
BUY 11.20 14.10 25.9 11.9
BUY 12.20 14.70 20.5 12.1
BUY 45.50 67.00 47.3 7.6
BUY 4.36 5.90 35.3 6.8
BUY 14.20 20.50 44.4 8.0
BUY 13.50 20.00 48.1 8.2
BUY 16.40 25.00 52.4 11.2
BUY 7.00 8.20 17.1 9.6
BUY 3.10 3.70 19.4 9.5
BUY 12.10 16.90 39.7 10.3
BUY 4.72 6.90 46.2 3.8
BUY 17.80 24.00 34.8 16.8
SELL 5.25 6.00 (4.8) 52.5
3.3
3.4
1.0
1.1
1.1
3.3
3.0
3.2
2.2
0.9
2.2
2.2
3.3
1.3
0.9
2.0
0.9
4.8
5.2
3.0
2.9
4.4
4.9
0.0
2.5
4.2
6.6
4.2
3.8
3.6
4.3
7.4
6.1
4.8
5.8
4.2
-
28.3
36.6
0.9
10.8
9.9
19.7
28.5
27.8
32.1
13.3
30.0
43.7
33.5
19.0
9.2
32.6
25.0
28.6
18.1
¿“«–Õÿ µ “À°√√¡Õ — ß À“√‘ ¡ ∑√— æ ¬å „ πªï 47 ¥Ÿ ¥„ πâ Õ ¬°«à “ ∑’Ë §‘ ¥
‚¥¬√—∞∫“≈‰¥âª√–°“»‰¡àµàÕ¡“µ√°“√°√–µÿâπÕ —ßÀ“œ®“°ªï 46 àßº≈„Àâ
§à“„™â®à“¬¢ÕßºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√ Ÿß¢÷Èπ∑—π∑’ ®“°¿“√–¿“…’∏ÿ√°‘®‡©æ“– ·≈–
§à “ ∏√√¡‡π’ ¬ ¡∑’Ë ° ≈— ∫ Ÿà √ –¥— ∫ ª°µ‘ ¢ ≥–‡¥’ ¬ «°— π µâ π ∑ÿ π °“√°à Õ √â “ ß‰¥â ¡’
·π«‚πâ¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ®“°√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß∑’Ëª√—∫µ—« ‡π◊ËÕß®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√∑’Ë Ÿß
¢÷Èπ®“° “∏“√≥Ÿª‚¿§¢—Èπæ◊Èπ∞“π ´÷Ëß®– àßº≈„ÀâºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√ª√—∫√“§“
¢“¬∫â“π¢÷Èπ ‡æ◊ËÕ≈¥¿“√–§à“„™â®à“¬ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡°“√ª√—∫¢÷Èπ√“§“Õ“®∑”
‰¡à ‰¥â¡“°π—°„π¿“«–°“√·¢àß¢—π∑’Ë√ÿπ·√ß¢÷Èπ ®÷ßÕ“® àßº≈°√–∑∫µàÕÕ—µ√“
°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ À√◊Õ ¬Õ¥¢“¬´÷Ëß§“¥«à“„πªï 47 π’È®–¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß∑’Ë
Õ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬∑’Ë 10%-40% ´÷Ëß≈¥≈ß®“°ªï 46 ∑’Ë¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß∂÷ß 45%
·µà∂÷ß°√–π—Èπ¬—ß¡’Àÿâπ∑’Ëπà“ π„®≈ß∑ÿπ‡æ‘Ë¡‡µ‘¡‰¥â§◊Õ PF ·≈– SPALI
”À√—∫¿“§°“√°àÕ √â“ßπ—Èπ¬—ß§ß·π–π”Õ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‚¥¬¿“«–Õÿµ “À°√√¡
¡’°“√‡®√‘≠‡µ‘∫‚µ„π¢“¢÷Èπ ‚¥¬‰¥â√—∫·√ß π—∫ πÿπ®“°°“√≈ß∑ÿπ∑—Èß¿“§√—∞
·≈– ‡Õ°™π ·¡â®–¡’ªí≠À“¥â“π√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∫â“ß ·µà ‰¡àπà“
®–‚¥π°√–∑∫„π√–¬–¬“« ‡æ√“–¬—ß‰¡à¡’°“√·¢àß¢—πµ—¥√“§“Õ¬à“ß√ÿπ·√ß
·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé STECON, ITD, PLE
¢π àß
(6 Feb 2004)
P/E (x) 10.1
P/BV (x) 2.63
Index
137.40
Market cap 167,284
§”·π–π”°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
(Bt)
Recommend Close
6-Feb
HOLD
23.10
BUY
44.25
BUY
20.00
BUY
49.50
BUY
44.50
BECL
PSL
RCL
THAI
TTA
End-04
target
24.00
69.00
29.00
65.00
59.00
return 2004E 2004E 2004E 2004E
3.9 12.9 1.2 4.3 9.5
55.9 7.6 4.6 6.6 59.9
45.0 10.8 1.7 6.0 16.7
31.3 5.8 1.6 4.3 30.8
32.6 8.9 4.6 4.5 51.1
Syrus
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate) ∑’Ëª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß‡ªìπªí®®—¬À≈—°∑’Ë
àßº≈„Àâº≈¥”‡π‘π°“√¢Õß∫√‘…—∑‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ‡µ‘∫‚µÕ¬à“ß¡“°‡π◊ËÕß®“° ‡¡◊Ë Õ
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß À√◊Õ TC Rate ‰¥âª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷Èπ„π¢≥–∑’Ëµâπ∑ÿπ/§à“„™â®à“¬
¢Õß∫√‘…—∑§àÕπ¢â“ß®–§ß∑’ËÀ√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡æ’¬ß‡≈Á°πâÕ¬ àßº≈„Àâ à«πµà“ß
√–À«à“ß√“¬‰¥â·≈–§à“„™â®à“¬ ´÷Ëß°Á§◊Õ Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ‰¥âª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷Èπ
µ“¡Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate) ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ ∑—Èßπ’ÈºŸâ‡™’Ë¬«™“≠„π∏ÿ√°‘®‡¥‘π
‡√◊Õ¡Õß«à“Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà „π¢“¢÷ÈπÕ’° 3-4 ªï ‡π◊ËÕß®“° Õÿª ß§å
À√◊Õ §«“¡µâÕß°“√¢π àß∑“ß‡√◊Õ¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß „π¢≥–∑’ËÕÿª∑“π À√◊Õ
®”π«π‡√◊Õ„πµ≈“¥‚≈°°≈—∫≈¥≈ß‡æ√“–Õ—µ√“°“√ª≈¥≈–«“ß‡√◊Õ‡°à“¬—ß
πâÕ¬°«à“Õ—µ√“°“√µàÕ‡√◊Õ„À¡à ª√–°Õ∫°—∫∫√‘…—∑‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ‰¥â‡√àß´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ„π
™à«ßπ’È‡æ‘Ë¡‡æ◊ËÕ√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå®“°™à«ß√–«“ß¢“¢÷Èπ‰¥âÕ¬à“ß‡µÁ¡∑’Ë Àÿâπ‡¥àπ„π
À¡«¥·π–π” PSL
15
T echnical View
¡ÿ¡¡Õß SET ∑“ß‡∑§π‘§
™à«ß 2 ‡¥◊Õπ¢â“ßÀπâ“π’Èµ≈“¥Àÿâπ‰∑¬§àÕπ¢â“ßº—πº«π...
§”·π–π”‡™‘ß‡∑§π‘§
®“°°“√¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ¡“§àÕπ¢â“ß·√ßµ—Èß·µàª≈“¬ªï 46 ®π°√–∑—Ëß¢÷Èπ¡“∑”®ÿ¥
Ÿß ÿ¥‰¥â∑’Ë∫√‘‡«≥ 800 ®ÿ¥ °àÕπ∑’Ë®–‡√‘Ë¡ª√—∫æ—°∞“π≈ß¡“π—Èπ ∑—Èß√Ÿª·∫∫
°“√‡§≈◊ËÕπ‰À«¢Õß¥—™π’ ·≈–°“√øÕ√å¡µ—«¢Õß Indicators µà“ßÊ àß
—≠≠“≥™’È ‰ª∑“ß∑’Ë√Õ∫¢÷Èπ√Õ∫¥—ß°≈à“«¢â“ßµâπ‰¥â®∫√Õ∫‰ª·≈â« ·≈–™à«ß
µà Õ ®“°π’È ® –‡ªì π °“√ª√— ∫ æ— ° ∞“π„À≠à ´÷Ë ß ¡’ ‚ Õ°“ ∑’Ë ® –ª√— ∫ µ— « ≈ß¡“
‡§≈◊ËÕπ‰À«·∂« 600 ®ÿ¥+/- ‰¥â¥â«¬ ·≈– ”À√—∫°√≥’∑’Ë¥’∑’Ë ÿ¥§◊Õµ≈“¥
“¡“√∂¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ‰¥âÕ’°√Õ∫Àπ÷Ëß°àÕπª√—∫æ—°∞“ππ—Èπ °Á§“¥«à“‚Õ°“ ¢÷Èπ‰ª Ÿß
°«à“ 800 ®ÿ¥¡“°Ê ¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥âπâÕ¬ ‚¥¬∂â“®–¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ‰ªÀ“ 800820 ®ÿ¥‰¥â°àÕπ≈ß®√‘ßÊ µ≈“¥°ÁµâÕßæ¬“¬“¡°≈—∫¢÷Èπ‰ª¬◊π Ÿß°«à“ 750 ®ÿ¥
„Àâ ”‡√Á®„π™à«ß§√÷Ëß‡¥◊Õπ·√°¢Õß‡¥◊Õπ°ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏åπ’È
™à«ß∂—¥®“°π’È‡π◊ËÕß®“°‚Õ°“ µ≈“¥¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ¡’πâÕ¬°«à“ ®÷ß·π–π”„Àâ¢“¬
∑”°”‰√ À√◊Õ¢“¬ª√—∫æÕ√åµ‡¡◊ËÕµ≈“¥¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ∫«° ·≈– ”À√—∫°“√
‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ‡æ◊ËÕ Trading µâÕßµ“¡¥Ÿ·√ß´◊ÈÕ®“°·π«Àπÿπ‡ªìπ√–¥—∫Ê ‰ª à«π
π—°≈ß∑ÿπ√–¬–°≈“ß 3-6 ‡¥◊Õπ¢÷Èπ‰ª „Àâ „™â«‘∏’§àÕ¬Ê ∑¬Õ¬‡¢â“√—∫‡¡◊Ë Õ
µ≈“¥ª√—∫µ—«≈ß ‚¥¬‡≈◊Õ°Àÿâπ∑’Ëªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¥’‡ªìπÀ≈—°. (‡√“®÷ß¬—ß‰¡à¡’Àÿâπ
∑’Ë¡’√Ÿª·∫∫°√“ø∑’Ë¥’·π–π”„π√Õ∫π’È „Àâµ‘¥µ“¡¥Ÿ®“° Daily Technical
‰ª°àÕπ)
➤
➤
Syrus
16
·π«‚πâ¡√“¬Õÿµ “À°√√¡
°≈ÿà¡
(Sectors)
1. Bank
¥—™π’ª¥î
(6/2/47)
245.94
2.
3.
Finance
Entertain
1750.82
59.83
4.
5.
Energy
Commun.
9893.74
92.77
6.
Build
7674.91
7.
Chemical
582.06
8.
9.
Property
Electronic
181.58
842.60
§«“¡‡ÀÁπ‡™‘ß‡∑§π‘§
(Comment)
·π«‚πâ¡ª√—∫µ—«≈ßµàÕ¡’¡“°°«à“ ‚¥¬¥’¥¢÷Èπ°àÕπ„Àâ√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬®“°·π«µâ“π 250-253 ®ÿ¥‚¥¬ª√–¡“≥ à«π‡ªÑ“À¡“¬°“√≈ßÕ¬Ÿà
·∂«®ÿ¥µË”‡¥‘¡∑’Ë 230 ®ÿ¥
ºà“π·π«µâ“π 1800 ®ÿ¥‰¥â°Á¡’≈ÿâπ¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 1900 ®ÿ¥ ·µà∂â“ºà“π‰¡à ‰¥â¡’ ‘∑∏‘Ï ‰À≈≈ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß‰ªÀ“ 1600 ®ÿ¥À√◊ÕµË”°«à“
·°«àß„π°√Õ∫ 58-62 ®ÿ¥ ∂â“À≈ÿ¥ 58 §“¥«à“®–‰À≈≈ß‰ª‡√‘Ë¡µâπ∑’Ë√–¥—∫µË”°«à“ 55 ®ÿ¥ ·µà∂â“ºà“π 62 ®ÿ¥¢÷Èπ‰¥â °Á¬—ßµâÕß√–«—ß
·π«µâ“π 65 ®ÿ¥Õ¬Ÿà
™à«ß·√°®–¡’·π«µâ“π·∂« 10000-10500 ®ÿ¥¢«“ßÕ¬Ÿà ´÷Ëß¥Ÿ·≈â«ºà“π¬“° ‚Õ°“ ‰À≈≈ß‰ªÀ“ 9000 ®ÿ¥¥Ÿ®–¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥â¡“°°«à“
·°«àß„π°√Õ∫ 90-96 ®ÿ¥ ∂â“À≈ÿ¥ 90 ≈ß‰ª§“¥«à“®–‰À≈≈ß‰ª∂÷ß 80 ®ÿ¥µâπÊ ·µà∂â“«‘Ëßºà“π 96 ®ÿ¥¢÷Èπ‰ª¬◊πªî¥‰¥â °Á¡’≈ÿâπ‡ÀÁπ®ÿ¥
Ÿß ÿ¥„À¡à∑’Ë√–¥—∫ 110 ®ÿ¥
√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬®“°·π«µâ“π 7800-7900 ®ÿ¥‰«â¥’¥’ ∂â“¬—ß‰¡à√’∫ºà“π¢÷Èπ‰ª·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–µâÕß≈ß‰ªÀ“·π«Àπÿπ 7000 ®ÿ¥µâπÊ °Á¬—ß¡’
§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥â¡“°Õ¬Ÿà
∂â“µË”°«à“ 580 ®ÿ¥°àÕπ °Á‡µ√’¬¡√Õ√—∫·∂« 540-500 ®ÿ¥‰¥â ·µà∂â“¬—ß‰¡àÀ≈ÿ¥®–≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπ‰ªÀ“·π«µâ“π 620 ®ÿ¥„À¡à°Á∑”‰¥â ·µà§“¥
«à“®–ºà“π¬“°
¡’·π«µâ“πÀ≈—°Ê ·∂« 185-190 ®ÿ¥´÷Ëßπà“®–¬—ßºà“π¢÷Èπ‰ª‰¥â¬“° ‚Õ°“ ‰À≈≈ß¡“‡√‘Ë¡µâπ°—π„À¡à∑’Ë√–¥—∫µË”°«à“ 170 ®ÿ¥¡’¡“°°«à“
¬—ß‡ªìπ°“√‡§≈◊ËÕπ‰À«≈—°…≥– Sideways ¬—ß√Õ√—∫·∂« 800 À√◊ÕµË”°«à“‰¥â ·≈–¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ§«√∑”°”‰√·∂«·π«µâ“π 880-900 ®ÿ¥
µ“¡Àÿâπ‡∑§π‘§‡¥àπ‡¥◊Õπ ∏.§. 2546 - ¡.§. 2547
™◊ÕË Àÿπâ
(Stocks)
1. KTB
√“§“ªî¥
(6/2/47)
11.20
2.
TMB
4.56
3.
SITHAI
8.25
4.
BECL
23.10
5.
MFEC
8.10
6.
MIDA
28.25
7.
HANA
137
8.
TT&T
5.20
9.
SSPORT
7.80
10. TFI
0.99
§«“¡‡ÀÁπ‡™‘ß‡∑§π‘§
(Comment)
¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–ª√—∫µ—«≈ß¡“ √â“ß∞“π°àÕπ¢÷Èπ®√‘ß∑’Ë∫√‘‡«≥ 10.50-10.20 ∫. ¥—ßπ—Èπ
√Õ√—∫µË”‰¥â.
4.40-4.20* , 4**
5-5.20** , 5.80
ºà“π 5.20 ∫.‰¥â®÷ß®–¡’≈ÿâπ¢÷Èπ‰ªÀ“ 5.80 ∫. ·µà∂â“¬—ß‰¡àºà“π ¬—ß§“¥«à“®–ª√—∫µ—«
≈ß‰ªÀ“·π«√—∫°àÕπ¡“°°«à“ ´÷ËßµâÕß„™â«‘∏’§àÕ¬Ê ∑¬Õ¬‡¢â“√—∫.
8(S) , 7.50-7 8.50-8.60** , 9-9.50*** ∂â“‰¡àÀ≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“ 8 ∫.‡ ’¬°àÕπ °Á¬—ß¡’≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπ‰ª∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“π√–¥—∫µà“ßÊ
¢â“ßµâπ‰¥â ‰¡à¬“°π—° ·µà∂â“À≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“ 8 ∂Õ¬ÕÕ°¡“√Õ¥Ÿ°àÕπ¥’°«à“.
22.50-22* , 21.50-21**23.50-23.70*** , 24.50 ∂â“®–≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπ ·π–π”„Àâ ‰ª√Õ∑¬Õ¬‡¢â“√—∫·∂« 22 ∫.À√◊ÕµË”°«à“®–ª≈Õ¥¿—¬
°«à“ ®“°π—Èπ§àÕ¬∂◊Õ≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπºà“π·π«µâ“π·√°‡æ◊ËÕ∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“πÀ≈—ßµàÕ‰ª.
8-7.80(S)
9* , 9.50**
∂â“¬—ß¬◊π Ÿß°«à“ 7.80 ∫.‰¥â °Á¬—ß¡’≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπ‰ª∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“π√–¥—∫µà“ßÊ ¢â“ßµâπ
‰¥â ·µà∂â“À≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“·π«√—∫¥—ß°≈à“«·π–π”„Àâ¢“¬∂Õ¬°àÕπ¥’°«à“.
28-27.50(S)
29* , 30** , 32***
∂â“¬—ß‰¡àÀ≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“ 27.50 ∫.°Á¬—ß¡’ ‘∑∏‘‰¥â≈ÿâπ¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“π√–¥—∫µà“ßÊ
¢â“ßµâπ‰¥â ·µà∂â“À≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“·π«√—∫°àÕπ§«√∂Õ¬µ—ÈßÀ≈—°.
130-128(S)
140* , 145-150**
∂â“‰¡à ‰À≈≈ß‰ªµË”°«à“ 128 ∫.°àÕπ °Á¬—ßæÕ∑’Ë®–≈ÿâπ¥’¥¢÷Èπ‰ª∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“π√–¥—∫
µà“ßÊ ¢â“ßµâπ‰¥â ‰¡à¬“°π—° ·µà∂â“≈ß‰ª‡§≈◊ËÕπ‰À«µË”°«à“ 128 ∫.°àÕπ πà“√Õ√—∫„À¡à
‡¡◊ËÕ≈ßµË”.
5(S) , 4.50-4.30
5.40* , 5.70**
∂â“µË”°«à“ 5 ∫.°àÕπ „Àâ ‰ª√Õ‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ – ¡∑’Ë∫√‘‡«≥ 4.50-4.30 ∫. ·µà∂â“¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ
°àÕπ„Àâ√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬®“°·π«µâ“π 5.40 ·≈– 5.70 ∫.µ“¡≈”¥—∫ ∂â“ºà“π·π«
µâ“πÀ≈—ß‰¥â·π–π”„Àâ∂◊Õ¬“«.
7.50(S) , 7-6.50 8.20*** , 8.60-9
¡’°√Õ∫·°«àßÕ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 7.50-8.20 ∫.ºà“π¥â“π‰Àπ‰¥â°Á¡’ ‘∑∏‘∑’Ë®–¢¬—∫‰ªÀ“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
∑“ß¥â“ππ—πÈ .
0.97(S) , 0.80 1.05-1.15*** , 1.25*
∂â“À≈ÿ¥ 0.97 ∫.≈ß‰ª ¬—ß‰¡àπà“ π„® √Õ¥Ÿ·√ß´◊ÈÕ„À¡à·∂« 0.80 ∫. ·µà∂â“¥’¥¢÷Èπ‰¥â
°àÕπ ·≈–ºà“π·π«µâ“π·√° 1.15 ∫.‰¥â °Á¡’≈ÿâπ¢÷Èπ∑¥ Õ∫·π«µâ“π∂—¥‰ª·∂« 1.25
∫.‡ªìπÕ¬à“ßπâÕ¬.
Syrus
·π«√—∫
·π«µâ“π
(Support)
(Resistance)
10.50-10.20*** 11.50* , 11.80-12***
17
§”·π–π”Àÿâπ¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬ Ÿß ÿ¥
§”·π–π”Àÿâπ¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬ Ÿß ÿ¥ 10 Õ—π¥—∫·√° (∏§.2546-¡§.2547)
™◊ÕË Àÿπâ
(Stocks)
1. PTT
√“§“ªî¥
(6/2/47)
156
·π«√—∫
(Support)
150 , 145-140
·π«µâ“π
(Resistance)
160-164***
2.
ITV
21.70
21-20* , 18**
23-24***
3.
SCIB-C1
5.50
5-4.50
5.80-6***
4.
KEST
57
55(S) , 50-47
59* , 60-62***
5.
KTB
11.20
10.50-10.20***
11.50* , 11.80-12***
6.
BBL
97
96(S) , 92-90
98-100***
7.
TPI
9.95
9(S)
11* , 12-13***
8.
ITD
113
110(S) , 100-90
120-125***
9.
KBANK
55
53 , 52-50
56* , 57-58***
4.56
4.40-4.20* , 4**
5-5.20** , 5.80
10. TMB
§«“¡‡ÀÁπ‡™‘ß‡∑§π‘§
§”·π–π”
(Comment)
(Recommend)
¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà „π·π«‚πâ¡ª√—∫µ—«≈ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß §“¥«à“®–≈ß‰ª
√Õ√—∫µË”°«à“ 150 ∫.
‡§≈◊ËÕπ‰À«µË”°«à“ 150 ∫.„π∑’Ë ÿ¥.
®“°√Ÿª·∫∫¢Õß√“§“§“¥«à“¡’ ‘∑∏‘≈ß‰ª®∫√Õ∫°“√≈ß∑’Ë
√Õ√—∫µË”°«à“ 20 ∫.
∫√‘‡«≥ 20-18 ∫. ®“°π—Èπ¡’ ‘∑∏‘·°«àß¢÷Èπ‰¥â „À¡à.
¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–·°«àßµ—«≈ß‰ªÀ“·π«√—∫·∂« 5-4.50 ∫.
√Õ√—∫µË”°«à“ 5 ∫.
‡ªìπÕ¬à“ßπâÕ¬„π√Õ∫„°≈âÊ π’È.
™à«ß·√°¬—ß·°«àß„π°√Õ∫ 55-62 ∫.Õ¬Ÿà ∂â“À≈ÿ¥µË”°«à“
À≈ÿ¥ 55 ∂Õ¬
55 ∫.°àÕπ„Àâ ‰ª√Õ√—∫∑’Ë√–¥—∫√“§“µË”°«à“ 50 ∫. ·µà∂â“
ºà“π 62 ´◊ÈÕ
“¡“√∂¥’¥ºà“π 62 ‰¥â°àÕπ ´◊ÈÕ∂◊Õ‰¥â.
¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–ª√—∫µ—«≈ß¡“ √â“ß∞“π°àÕπ¢÷Èπ®√‘ß∑’Ë∫√‘‡«≥ √Õ√—∫·∂« 10.50 ∫.
10.50-10.20 ∫.
¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë®–ª√—∫µ—«≈ß‰ªµË”°«à“ 95 ∫.¡“°°«à“∑’Ë®–
√Õ√—∫µË”¥’°«à“
¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ‰¥â ‚¥¬·π«µâ“π∑’ËµâÕß√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬§◊Õ·∂«
100 ∫.À√◊Õ„°≈â‡§’¬ß.
·°«àß„π°√Õ∫ 9-13 ∫.Õ¬Ÿà ®÷ß¬—ßæÕ≈ÿâπ√Õ¢“¬∑”°”‰√
À≈ÿ¥ 9 ∫.°àÕπ..
µ“¡·π«µâ“π‰¥â ·µà∂â“‰À≈≈ßµË”°«à“ 9 ∫.°àÕπ
¢“¬∂Õ¬
§«√¢“¬∂Õ¬ÕÕ°¡“µ—ÈßÀ≈—°„À¡à.
∂â“≈ß¡“µË”°«à“ 110 ∫.°àÕπ ¡’ ‘∑∏‘‰À≈≈ßµË”°«à“
¡’≈ÿâπ√Õ√—∫µË”°«à“ 100
100 ∫.‰¥â „π∑’Ë ÿ¥ ·µà∂â“¥’¥¢÷Èπ°àÕπ„Àâ√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬·∂«
120-125 ∫.
¥’¥¢÷Èπ°àÕπ‰¥â ·µà„Àâ√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬µ“¡·π«µâ“π
∂â“®–´◊ÈÕ√Õ√—∫µË”¥’°«à“
‡æ√“–·π«‚πâ¡≈ß¬—ß‡ªìπµàÕ¡“°°«à“.
ºà“π 5.20 ∫.‰¥â®÷ß®–¡’≈ÿâπ¢÷Èπ‰ªÀ“ 5.80 ∫.
√Õ√—∫„°≈â 4 ∫.
·µà∂â“¬—ß‰¡àºà“π ¬—ß§“¥«à“®–ª√—∫µ—«≈ß‰ªÀ“·π«√—∫
°àÕπ¡“°°«à“ ´÷ËßµâÕß„™â«‘∏’§àÕ¬Ê ∑¬Õ¬‡¢â“√—∫.
Syrus
18
I nsight
Õ —ßÀ“œ ¬—ß¡’Àÿâπ¥’·¡âªí®®—¬≈∫ÀâÕ¡≈âÕ¡
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
π—°«‘‡§√“–Àå : “∏‘µ ∫—«™Ÿ Tel 0-2646-9963 email : [email protected]
ªí ® ®— ¬ ≈∫Àâ Õ ¡≈â Õ ¡Õÿ µ “À°√√¡·µà ¬— ß ¡’ Àÿâ π ∑’Ë ´◊È Õ ≈ß∑ÿ π ‰¥â „πªï 47 π’È
¿“«–·«¥≈âÕ¡¢ÕßÕÿµ “À°√√¡∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬‰¥â‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß‰ª ‚¥¬√—∞∫“≈
‰¡à µà Õ Õ“¬ÿ ¡ “µ√°“√°√–µÿâ π Õ — ß À“√‘ ¡ ∑√— æ ¬å à ß º≈„Àâ §à “ „™â ®à “ ¬¿“…’ · ≈–
§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ „π¢≥–∑’Ëµâπ∑ÿπ§à“°àÕ √â“ß°Á¡’·π«‚πâ¡∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ¥â«¬
àßº≈„Àâ√“§“¢“¬∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ ª√–°Õ∫°—∫∏ª∑.‰¥âÕÕ°°Æ§«∫§ÿ¡
‘π‡™◊ËÕ ”À√—∫∫â“π√“§“ 10 ≈∫. ¢÷Èπ‰ª ∑”„ÀâÕ”π“®´◊ÈÕ≈¥≈ß πÕ°®“°π’È
·π«‚πâ¡¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ªìπÕ’°ªí®®—¬∑’ËµâÕßµ‘¥µ“¡Õ¬à“ß„°≈â™‘¥ ´÷Ëßªí®®—¬∑’Ë°≈à“«
¡“π’ÈÕ“® àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡µâÕß°“√´◊ÈÕ∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬≈¥≈ß Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡¬—ß§“¥«à“
µ≈“¥∫â“πªï 47 ¬—ß¢¬“¬µ—«®“°ªï 46 ‚¥¬ªí®®ÿ∫—π¬—ß§ß¡’∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë¡’§«“¡
πà“ π„®„π°“√´◊ÈÕ≈ß∑ÿπ ·¡â«à“®–ª√—∫¬Õ¥¢“¬≈ß®“°§“¥°“√≥å‡¥‘¡‡æ◊ËÕ
–∑âÕπªí®®—¬≈∫ ‰¥â·°à PF ·≈– SPALI
§“¥∫â“π¢÷Èπ√“§“ 4.5% À≈—ßÀ¡¥¡“µ√°“√°√–µÿâπÕ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å
‡ªìπ∑’Ë·πà™—¥·≈â««à“√—∞∫“≈‰¡àµàÕ¡“µ√°“√Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å∑’ËÀ¡¥Õ“¬ÿ≈ß„π
ª≈“¬‡¥◊Õπ ∏.§. 46 ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ ´÷Ëß àßº≈„Àâ§à“„™â®à“¬∑’ËºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√
Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å ·≈– ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§‡§¬‰¥â√—∫¬°‡«âπÀ√◊Õ≈¥À¬àÕπ (ª√–°Õ∫
¥â«¬¿“…’∏ÿ√°‘®‡©æ“– §à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√‚Õπ ·≈– ®¥®”πÕß) °≈—∫‡¢â“ Ÿà
√–¥—∫ª°µ‘„π«—π∑’Ë 1 ¡.§. 47 ∑”„Àâ¿“√–§à“„™â®à“¬¢ÕßºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√œ
·≈– ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§ Ÿß¢÷Èπ®“°‡¥‘¡‚¥¬ “¡“√∂·∫àß‰¥â¥—ßπ’È
1) ¿“…’∏ÿ√°‘®‡©æ“–°≈—∫ Ÿà 3.3% ®“° 0.11% àßº≈„Àâ§à“„™â®à“¬‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
3.19% ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬´÷ËßºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√®à“¬ΩÉ“¬‡¥’¬«
2) §à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√‚Õπ∑’Ë à«π„À≠à®–·∫àß°—π®à“¬§π≈–§√÷Ëß√–À«à“ß
ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√ ·≈–ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§·≈â«®–∑”„Àâ§à“„™â®à“¬ Ÿß¢÷ÈπÕ’° 1% ∑—Èß
2 ΩÉ“¬
3) §à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√®¥®”πÕß‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 1% ®“° 0.01% ´÷ËßºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§
®–‡ªìπºŸâ√—∫º‘¥™Õ∫„π à«ππ’È‡æ’¬ßΩÉ“¬‡¥’¬«
´÷ËßÀ“°¡Õß„π·ßà¢ÕßºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√ΩÉ“¬‡¥’¬«√«¡·≈â«µâÕß‡ ’¬§à“„™â®à“¬
‡æ‘Ë¡ 4.19% ·µàÀ“°ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√µâÕß°“√º≈—°¿“√–§à“„™â®à“¬¥—ß°≈à“«„Àâ
ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§∑—ÈßÀ¡¥®–µâÕß¢÷Èπ√“§“∫â“π®“°ªï∑’Ë 46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 4.5% ‡π◊ËÕß®“°
À“°¢÷Èπ√“§“‡æ’¬ß 4.19% ®–‰¡à “¡“√∂™¥‡™¬ à«π≈È”‰¥â∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ´÷Ëß„π
°√≥’ª°µ‘ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√‰¥âª√—∫√“§“∫â“π¢÷Èπ‰¡àµË”°«à“ªï≈– 5% Õ¬Ÿà·≈â« ·µà
„π·ßà¢ÕßºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§‡¡◊ËÕ√«¡§à“„™â®à“¬®“°§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√‚Õπ„π à«π§√÷Ëß
∑’Ë‡À≈◊Õ·≈–§à“®¥®”πÕß („π°√≥’ºàÕπ) ®–∑”„Àâ§à“„™â®à“¬‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 6.5%
¡“µ√°“√°√–µÿâπÕ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å¢Õß¿“§√—∞
√–¥—∫≈¥À¬àÕπ
¿“…’·≈–§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡:
¿“…’∏ÿ√°‘®‡©æ“–
§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√‚Õπ
§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√®¥®”πÕß
√«¡
º≈°√–∑∫®“°°“√‰¡àµàÕÕ“¬ÿ¡“µ√°“√
ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§
ºŸªâ √–°Õ∫°“√
√«¡
0.11%
0.01%
0.01%
0.13%
§à“„™â®à“¬‡¥‘¡
0.02%
0.12%
0.13%
√–¥—∫ª°µ‘
3.30%
2.00%
1.00%
6.30%
§à“„™â®à“¬„À¡à
2.00%
4.30%
6.30%
¿“√–∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
3.19%
1.99%
0.99%
6.17%
§à“„™â®à“¬∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
1.99%
4.19%
6.17%
«—πÀ¡¥Õ“¬ÿ¡“µ√°“√
ºŸ®â “à ¬
ª≈“¬ªï 46 ºŸªâ √–°Õ∫°“√
ª≈“¬ªï 46 ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§ 50% : ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√ 50%
ª≈“¬ªï 46 ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§
°√≥’º≈—°¿“√–∑—ÈßÀ¡¥
1.99%
4.49%
6.48%
Source: Syrus research
µâπ∑ÿπ¢“¬¡’·π«‚πâ¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ √“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß §à“·√ß ·≈– √“§“∑’Ë¥‘π„πªï
47 ¡’·π«‚πâ¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°°“√ºÿ¥‚§√ß°“√ “∏“√≥Ÿª‚¿§¢π“¥„À≠à
¢Õß√—∞∫“≈ àßº≈„Àâª√‘¡“≥§«“¡µâÕß°“√«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß ·≈– ·√ßß“π¡’ Ÿß
´÷ËßÕ“®°àÕ„Àâ‡°‘¥ªí≠À“°“√¢“¥·§≈π«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß·≈– ·√ßß“πµ“¡¡“
‚¥¬ªï∑’Ëºà“π¡“π—Èπ¥—™π’√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß√«¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπª√–¡“≥ 7% ·≈–§“¥
«à“ªï 47 π’È√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß√«¡®– Ÿß¢÷Èπ 20% ¢≥–∑’Ë√“§“ª√–‡¡‘π„À¡à
∑’Ë‡√‘Ë¡„™â „πªï 47 π—Èπ¡’√“§“ Ÿß¢÷Èπ‚¥¬‡©≈’Ë¬ 15% àßº≈„ÀâºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√
µâÕß·∫°¿“√–µâπ∑ÿπ∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π«à“„πªï 47 π’È
Syrus
ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬®–‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫®“°√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß ·≈–
§à“·√ß ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡æ’¬ß 3% ‡∑à“π—Èπ ®“°°“√∑’Ëµâπ∑ÿπ«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß ·≈–
§à“·√ß§‘¥‡ªìπ —¥ à«π‡æ’¬ßª√–¡“≥ 20%¢Õß√“§“¢“¬ „π¢≥–∑’Ë√“§“
ª√–‡¡‘π∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ®–¬—ß‰¡à àßº≈µàÕµâπ∑ÿπ„πªï 47 ‡π◊ËÕß®“°‚§√ß°“√∑’Ë¢“¬„π
ªï 47 ‡ªìπ°“√´◊ÈÕ∑’Ë¥‘π¡“µ—Èß·µàªï 46 À√◊Õ°àÕπÀπâ“·≈â«¥—ßπ—ÈπÀ“°‰¡à¡’°“√
ª√—∫‡æ‘Ë¡√“§“¢“¬∫â“π¢÷Èπ®–∑”„ÀâÕ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ≈¥≈ß 3% ®“°§à“
°àÕ √â“ß∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ ´÷ËßÀ“°ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√®–º≈—°¿“√–¥—ß°≈à“«„Àâ°—∫ºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§
∑—ÈßÀ¡¥°Á®–µâÕß¢÷Èπ√“§“∫â“π 3% ‡™àπ°—π
19
¥—™π’√«¡√“§“«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß (ªï 2538 = 100)
®ÿ¥
Jan-46
Jan-45
Jan-44
Jan-43
Jan-42
Jan-41
∑’Ë¡“: ”π—°¥—™π’‡»√…∞°‘®°“√§â“, °√–∑√«ßæ“≥‘™¬å
‚§√ß √â“ßµâπ∑ÿπ (% ¢Õß√“§“¢“¬)
ªí®®ÿ∫—π
30.0%
‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
15.0%
º≈°√–∑∫
4.5%
µâπ∑ÿπ„À¡à
34.5%
—¥ à«πº≈‘µ¿—≥±å®”·π°µ“¡√“§“¢“¬ (‚¥¬ª√–¡“≥)
√«¡º≈°√–∑∫®“°¡“µ√°“√·≈–µâπ∑ÿπº≈—°√“§“∫â“π¢÷Èπ 7.5% ‡ªìπ
Õ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ ®“°º≈°√–∑∫∑—Èß°“√‰¡àµàÕÕ“¬ÿ¡“µ√°“√Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å ·≈–
µâπ∑ÿπ∑’Ë¡’·π«‚πâ¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ àßº≈„ÀâºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√¡’§«“¡®”‡ªìπ∑’Ë®–µâÕß¢÷Èπ
√“§“¢“¬∫â“π‡æ◊ËÕ§ßÕ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ„ÀâÕ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫‡¥‘¡ ‚¥¬§“¥«à“√“§“
∫â“π®–ª√—∫ Ÿß¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ 7.5% „πªï 47 „π¢≥–∑’ËºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§®–µâÕß®à“¬
‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ’° 2% „π à«π¢Õß§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡°“√‚Õπ ·≈– ®¥®”πÕß ¥—ßπ—ÈπºŸâ
∫√‘‚¿§®÷ß®à“¬§à“∫â“π·æß¢÷Èπ 9.5% ®“°ªï∑’Ë·≈â« ´÷Ëß√“§“∫â“π∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ„π
¡ÿ¡¡Õß¢ÕßºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§π—ÈπÕ“® àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡µâÕß°“√´◊ÈÕ∫â“π≈¥≈ß‰¥â
√«¡º≈°√–∑∫®“°¡“µ√°“√·≈–µâπ∑ÿπ
º≈®“°°“√‰¡àµàÕ¡“µ√°“√
º≈®“°µâπ∑ÿπ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
√«¡
ºŸâ∫√‘‚ ¿§ ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√
1.99%
4.49%
3.00%
1.99%
7.49%
√«¡
6.48%
3.00%
9.47%
√«¡*
6.48%
7.50%
13.98%
∑’Ë¡“: Syrus research, *√«¡º≈°√–∑∫®“°√“§“∑’Ë¥‘π 4.5%
¡“µ√°“√∏ª∑. àßº≈≈∫µàÕµ≈“¥√–¥—∫∫π °“√∑’Ë∏ª∑.§«∫§ÿ¡ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∑’Ë
70% ”À√—∫∫â“π√–¥—∫√“§“ 10 ≈∫. ¢÷Èπ‰ªπ—Èπ®–∑”„ÀâºŸâ∫√‘‚¿§µâÕßÕ“»—¬
‡ß‘πÕÕ¡„π°“√´◊ÈÕ∫â“π‡æ‘Ë¡ 20-30% ®“°‡¥‘¡∑’Ë‡§¬‰¥â ‘π‡™◊ËÕ 90-100%
¢Õß√“§“ª√–‡¡‘πµ—«∫â“π ´÷ËßÕ“®∑”„Àâ§«“¡µâÕß°“√´◊ÈÕ™–≈Õµ—«≈ß ‚¥¬∑’Ë
Õ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ ∑’Ë®–‚¥π°√–∑∫®“°¡“µ√°“√π’È¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥§◊Õ∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ª√–‡¿∑
10 ≈∫. ¢÷Èπ‰ª
LPN
SPALI
LALIN
SAMCO
MK
NOBLE
∑’Ë¡“: Syrus research, *‰¡à√«¡º≈°√–∑∫®“°√“§“∑’Ë¥‘π
AP
11.0%
72.5%
27.5%
32.0%
5-10 ≈∫.
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
LH
1.0%
7.5%
-7.5%
-3.0%
µË”°«à“ 5 ≈∫.
12.0%
SC
2.0%
PF
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
SIRI
10.0%
15.0%
10.0%
65.0%
35.0%
GOLD
∑’Ë¥‘π
§à“°àÕ √â“ß
«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß
‚§√ß √â“ß
«“ß√–∫∫ ·≈– µ°·µàß
§à“·√ß
√«¡µâπ∑ÿπ
Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ
Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ„À¡à*
QH
Jan-40
Jan-39
Jan-38
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
ç √â“ß‡ √Á®°àÕπ¢“¬é ∑’Ë®”‡ªìπµâÕß«“ß‡ß‘π¥“«πå 30% ∑—π∑’ ¢≥–∑’Ë
ç∫â“π —Ëß √â“ßé Õ“®‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫πâÕ¬°«à“®“°°“√∑’Ë¡’√–¬–‡«≈“„π°“√
ºàÕπ™”√– 6 - 8 ‡¥◊Õπ ´÷Ëßπ‚¬∫“¬π’ÈÕ“® àßº≈„ÀâºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√√–¥—∫∫π
À—π¡“√ÿ°µ≈“¥„π√–¥—∫°≈“ß¡“°¢÷Èπ ·µà „π§«“¡‡ÀÁπ¢Õß‡√“æ∫«à“πà“®–
‡ªìπ„π√–¬–¬“« 1-2 ªï¢â“ßÀπâ“ ®÷ß®–‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰¥â ‡π◊ËÕß®“°·ºπ°“√´◊ÈÕ∑’Ë„π
ªí®®ÿ∫—π‰¥â√Õß√—∫∫â“π√“§“ ŸßÕ¬Ÿà°àÕπ ´÷ËßÀ“°‡ª≈’Ë¬π„π∑—π∑’Õ“® àßº≈µàÕ
Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ∑’ËµË” ·≈– ‰¡à “¡“√∂·¢àß¢—π°—∫ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√∑’Ë‡πâπ∫â“π
√–¥—∫°≈“ßÕ¬Ÿ°à Õà π‰¥â ´÷ßË ºŸ∑â ’Ë ‰¥â√∫— º≈°√–∑∫®“°¡“µ√°“√π’¡È “°∑’ Ë ¥ÿ §◊Õ QH
·≈– SIRI ¢≥–∑’Ë·¡â GOLD ®–¡’∫â“π√“§“·æß¡“°·µà‡ªìπ∫â“π —Ëß √â“ß
®÷ß¡’√–¬–‡«≈“ºàÕπ¥“«πå à«π°≈ÿ¡à ∑’Ë‰¡à ‰¥â√∫— º≈°√–∑∫‡≈¬§◊Õ LALIN, LPN,
SAMCO ·≈– SPALI Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡æƒµ‘°√√¡¢Õß≈Ÿ°§â“∑’Ë´◊ÈÕ∫â“π√“§“
·æß®–‡ªìπ°“√´◊ÕÈ ‡ß‘π ¥„π —¥ à«π 30%-50% ¢Õß≈Ÿ°§â“∑—ßÈ À¡¥ ª√–°Õ∫
°—∫ ∏Õ . (∏π“§“√Õ“§“√ ß‡§√“–Àå) π—πÈ “¡“√∂ª≈àÕ¬°Ÿâ„π —¥ à«π∑’ Ë ßŸ °«à“
70% ¢Õß√“§“ª√–‡¡‘π‰¥â‡π◊ÕË ß®“°‰¡àÕ¬Ÿ¿à “¬„µâ§«“¡§«∫§ÿ¡¢Õß ∏ª∑. º≈
°√–∑∫®÷ßÕ“®‰¡à¡“°π—°
Source; Syrus research
ªí®®—¬¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ªìπ ‘Ëß∑’ËµâÕßµ‘¥µ“¡Õ¬à“ß„°≈â™‘¥...À“°¥Õ°‡∫’È¬¢¬—∫¢÷Èπ
Õ¬à“æ÷Ëßµ°„® °“√øóôπµ—«¢ÕßÕ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å„π™à«ß∑’Ëºà“π¡“π—Èπ‡°‘¥®“°
ªí®®—¬À≈—°§◊Õ Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘π°Ÿâ∑’Ë≈¥≈ßµË”‡ªìπª√–«—µ‘°“√≥å ·≈– ¿“«–
‡»√…∞°‘®∑’Ë¡’§«“¡¡—Ëπ§ß ·µàªí®®ÿ∫—π¡’‡√‘Ë¡¡’ —≠≠“≥°“√ª√—∫¢÷ÈπÕ—µ√“
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡ß‘π°Ÿâ·≈â« ‚¥¬¡’°“√§“¥°“√≥å«à“Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®–¡’°“√ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ
‡≈Á°πâÕ¬„πª≈“¬ªïπ’È À√◊Õ ªïÀπâ“ ´÷ËßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë¢÷Èππ’È®– àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡
“¡“√∂„π°“√ºàÕπ™”√–≈¥≈ß ·≈– Õ“® àßº≈°√–∑∫µàÕ§«“¡µâÕß°“√
∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ ´÷Ëß®“°°“√»÷°…“æ∫«à“Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ 1% ”À√—∫∫â“π
√“§“ 1 ≈∫.-5 ≈∫. ®– àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√ºàÕπ™”√–≈¥≈ß‡æ’¬ß
1.4%-7.1% ‡∑à“π—Èπ ´÷Ëß· ¥ß„Àâ‡ÀÁπ«à“∫â“π√“§“∂Ÿ°‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫®“°
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬πâÕ¬°«à“ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡À“°æ‘®“√≥“∂÷ß™à«ß°àÕπ«‘°ƒµ∑’Ë¡’Õ—µ√“
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ Ÿß∂÷ß 10%-13% π—Èπ°Á¬—ß¡’¬Õ¥∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„π·µà≈–ªï
∂÷ß 1.3-1.7 · πÀπà«¬ ¥—ßπ—Èπ®÷ß‰¡àÕ“®¥à«π √ÿª‰¥â«à“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë¢÷Èπ®– àß
º≈°√–∑∫‡∑à“‰√ ®÷ßµâÕß√Õ¥Ÿº≈°√–∑∫∑’Ë‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ®√‘ß°àÕπ ·µàÀ“°¿“«–
‡»√…∞°‘®‡√‘Ë¡¡’ —≠≠“≥™–≈Õµ—« À√◊Õ ‡°‘¥ªí≠À“øÕß ∫ŸàÕ’°√Õ∫ ®– àßº≈
„Àâ§«“¡µâÕß°“√∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬À¥µ—«Õ¬à“ß√ÿπ·√ß∑—π∑’
Syrus
20
Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√ºàÕπ≈¥≈ß
Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬
‡ß‘π°Ÿ´â Õ◊È ∫â“π
(%)
6.00
6.50
7.00
9.00
12.00
16.00
√“§“¢“¬
(Bt)
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
5,000,000
‡ß‘π¥“«πå §à“ºàÕπ™”√– ‡ß‘π∑’®Ë “à ¬
(20%) √“¬‡¥◊Õπ ‡æ‘¡Ë µàÕ‡¥◊Õπ
(Bt)
(Bt)
(Bt)
1,000,000 28,657
0
1,000,000 29,823
1,166
1,000,000 31,012
2,355
1,000,000 35,989
7,332
1,000,000 44,043 15,386
1,000,000 55,650 26,993
§«“¡
√“¬‰¥â
“¡“√∂ §√Õ∫§√—«
∑’≈Ë ¥≈ß µàÕ‡¥◊Õπ
(%)
(∫“∑)*
0.0 71,643
3.5 74,557
7.1 77,530
22.0 89,973
46.1 110,109
80.8 139,126
Source: Syrus research,
Assumption: 30 yrs installment, * installment 40% of household
income
§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√ºàÕπ∑’Ë≈¥≈ß„π·µà≈–√–¥—∫√“§“
√“§“∫â“π (∫“∑)
Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ (%)
6.0
6.5
7.0
9.0
12.0
16.0
1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000
0.0%
0.7%
1.4%
4.4%
9.2%
16.2%
0.0%
1.4%
2.8%
8.8%
18.4%
32.3%
0.0%
2.1%
4.2%
13.2%
27.6%
48.5%
0.0%
2.8%
5.6%
17.6%
36.9%
64.7%
0.0%
3.5%
7.1%
22.0%
46.1%
80.8%
PF ·≈– SPALI ¬—ßπà“ π„®·¡â®–≈¥§“¥°“√≥å√“¬‰¥â·≈–°”‰√ªï 47
≈ß∂÷ß 20% ‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫√–¥—∫§«“¡µâÕß°“√∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬ª°µ‘∑’Ë 5-8 À¡◊Ëπ
Àπà«¬µàÕªï ·≈â«µ≈“¥∫â“πªï 47 πà“®–‡µ‘∫‚µ‰¥âÕ’° 10 - 60% ®“°ªï 46
´÷Ëß§“¥«à“®–¡’¬Õ¥∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬®¥∑–‡∫’¬π 4.5-5 À¡◊ËπÀπà«¬ ·µà°“√¢÷Èπ
√“§“∫â“π„πªï 47 Õ“®∑”„Àâ§«“¡µâÕß°“√∫â“π≈¥≈ß°«à“∑’Ë§“¥°“√≥å ´÷Ëß
À“°„Àâ¬Õ¥¢“¬ªï 47 ≈¥≈ß 10% ·≈– 20% ®“°∑’Ëª√–¡“≥°“√‰«â°àÕπ
Àπâ“π’È ”À√—∫∑ÿ°∫√‘…—∑ ¢≥–∑’Ë„ÀâÕ—µ√“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘≈¥≈ß 0.5% ·≈– 1.1%
”À√—∫¬Õ¥¢“¬∑’Ë≈¥≈ß 10% ·≈– 20% µ“¡≈”¥—∫ ·µàÕ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ
§ß∑’Ë®“°°“√¢÷Èπ√“§“∑’Ë§√Õ∫§≈ÿ¡ ®–æ∫«à“∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë¡’ —¥ à«π√“¬‰¥â®“°°“√
¢“¬∫â“π Ÿß®–‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫πâÕ¬°«à“∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë¡’√“¬‰¥â§à“‡™à“‡ªìπ à«πº ¡
¢≥–∑’Ë∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë¡’Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—ÈπµâπµË”®–¡’√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬∑’Ë≈¥≈ß¡“°°«à“ ´÷Ëß
·¡â¬Õ¥¢“¬∑’Ë≈¥≈ß®– àßº≈„Àâ√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬≈¥≈ß ·µàÕ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡∂÷ß·¡â
®–„Àâ¬Õ¥¢“¬∫â“π≈¥≈ß∂÷ß 20% ®“°°“√ª√–¡“≥°“√·µà¬—ß§ß¡’Àÿâπ∫“ß
µ—«∑’Ë¬—ß„ÀâÕ—µ√“º≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß°«à“ 10% ®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π§◊Õ LPN, PF
·≈– SPALI ´÷ËßÀ“°æ‘®“√≥“∂÷ß‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ PE ∑’Ë§”π÷ß∂÷ßÀÿâπ∑’Ë®–‡°‘¥®“°
°“√·ª≈ß ¿“æ„∫ ”§—≠· ¥ß ‘∑∏‘Ï (Fully diluted) ‡¢â“¡“¥â«¬·≈â«®–æ∫
«à“®–¡’ PF ·≈– SPALI ‡æ’¬ß 2 ∫√‘…—∑‡∑à“π—Èπ∑’Ë¡’‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ PE ªï 04
„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫ªí®®ÿ∫—π ¢≥–∑’Ë LPN ¡’Õ—µ√“ à«π PE ∑’Ë§àÕπ¢â“ß Ÿß°«à“‚¥¬
‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫ ¥—ßπ—Èπ®÷ß·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé PF ·≈– SPALI
§à“ PE ‡©≈’Ë¬ ”À√—∫ªï 46
MKt cap*
total profit 03E**
Avg P/E 03
Normalize profit
168,721
13,732
12.3
Net profit
168,721
15,393
11.0
* 14 listed companies (as of 6 Feb 04)
** estimate for Yr end 2003
Source: Syrus research,
ª√–¡“≥√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ªï 47 ‡¡◊ËÕ√“¬‰¥â®“°°“√¢“¬‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß≈¥≈ß 10% ·≈– 20%
Target PE 04 fully diluted (x)
15.7
16.5
14.9
23.7
14.4
10.0
12.2
12.1
11.7
11.3
22.0
15.3
9.8
AP
GOLD
LALIN
LH
LPN
MK
NOBLE
PF
QH
SAMCO
SC
SIRI
SPALI
Syrus
Target price 04
Old (Bt)
(-10%)
7.9
6.9
15.1
13.2
14.1
12.4
14.7
13.0
67.0
59.1
5.9
5.2
20.5
18.0
20.0
17.6
8.2
7.2
3.7
3.3
34.0
33.1
16.9
14.8
6.9
6.1
(-20%)
5.9
11.4
10.7
11.3
51.3
4.5
15.5
15.2
6.3
2.9
29.8
12.7
5.3
Target price change Closed price
(-10%)
(-20%) 6-°.æ.-04
(12.4)
(24.7)
5.6
(12.4)
(24.8)
11.3
(12.1)
(24.2)
11.2
(11.6)
(23.2)
12.2
(11.7)
(23.4)
45.5
(12.0)
(23.9)
4.4
(12.2)
(24.2)
14.2
(12.0)
(24.0)
13.5
(11.7)
(23.3)
7.0
(11.6)
(23.1)
3.1
(2.7)
(12.4)
28.5
(12.3)
(24.6)
12.1
(11.8)
(23.5)
4.7
Expected return
(-10%)
(-20%)
23.6
6.2
17.0
0.5
10.6
(4.5)
6.5
(7.5)
30.0
12.8
19.1
3.0
26.8
9.4
30.3
12.7
3.5
(10.2)
6.1
(7.7)
16.1
4.5
22.4
5.3
28.9
11.8
21
I nsight
∏ÿ√°‘®À≈—°∑√—æ¬å : §“¥¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 30,000 ≈∫... AST πà“ π„®≈ß∑ÿπ∑’Ë ÿ¥
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
Research: ‘√‘≥—Ø∞“ ‡µ™–»‘√‘«√√≥ Tel : 0-2646-9965 email : [email protected]
ª√–‡¡‘π¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿâπ ∫≈.
(Bt)
ASL
ASSET
AST
CNS
FNS
KEST
KGI
SSEC
US
ZMICO
Close End-04 % exp P/E (x) P/BV (x) % yield
10-Feb Targe*t Return* 2004E 2004E 2003E
11.60 11.60
(0.0)
7.8
0.7
1.3
101.00 142.00
40.6
7.9
4.1
7.6
92.50 132.00
42.7
9.7
3.8
6.4
90.50 97.00
7.2
9.9
1.6
1.9
52.50 62.00
18.1
6.0
1.7
3.4
59.50 42.00 (29.4)
17.0
6.2
1.4
5.10
6.80
33.3
7.5
2.0
4.7
26.75 27.00
0.9
7.2
2.0
3.3
16.50 16.50
7.9
1.7
12.70 16.00
26.0
10.8
2.7
4.0
* Base on market daily average assumption of 30,000 mn
∑’Ë¡“: Company data, SYRUS estimates
·π–π”´◊ÈÕ AST, ASSET, KGI, ZMICO, FNS ‚¥¬ AST πà“≈ß∑ÿπ∑’Ë ÿ¥
¥â«¬ ¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ∑’Ë 30,000 ≈∫. SYRUS
·π–π”´◊ÈÕ AST, ASSET, KGI, ZMICO, FNS ‚¥¬ AST ·≈– ASSET
´÷Ëß°”≈—ßÕ¬Ÿà „π™à«ß§«∫√«¡°‘®°“√πà“ π„®∑’Ë ÿ¥ ∑—Èß¥â“π¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿâπ‡∑’¬∫°—∫
ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π ·≈–»—°¬¿“æ„π°“√¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘®„πÕπ“§µ ∑—Èßπ’È‡π◊ËÕß®“°
AST ®–‡ªìπ·°π„π°“√§«∫√«¡ ASSET ‚¥¬ 1 Àÿâπ ASSET “¡“√∂
π”‰ª·≈°Àÿâπ AST 1.0833 Àÿâπ ¥—ßπ—Èπ√“§“ ASSET §«√ Ÿß°«à“ AST
ª√–¡“≥ 8.3% ´÷Ëß„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫√–¥—∫ªí®®ÿ∫—π SYRUS ®÷ß·π–π”´◊ÈÕ
AST ‡ªìπÀÿâπ‡¥àπ∑’Ë ÿ¥„πÀ¡«¥œ ‚¥¬ª√–‡¡‘π√“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π∑’Ë
132 ∫“∑ Ÿß°«à“√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π 43% ·≈–À“°ª√–‡¡‘π·∫∫√–¡—¥√–«—ß
¡“°¢÷Èπ ‚¥¬„Àâ ¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õ
27,000 ≈∫. √“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¢Õß AST ®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 112 ∫“∑ ¬—ß§ß
Ÿß°«à“√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π 22%
§“¥¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—πªï 2547 ∑’Ë 30,000 ≈∫. SYRUS §“¥«à“
¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÕÈ ¢“¬‡©≈’¬Ë ¢Õßµ≈“¥œ „πªï 2547 ®–‡æ‘¡Ë ‡ªìπ 30,000 ≈∫. ®“° 18,768
≈∫. „πªï 2546 (§√÷Ëß·√°‡©≈’Ë¬ 8,142≈∫. §√÷ËßÀ≈—ß‡©≈’Ë¬ 28,893 ≈∫.) ‚¥¬
§“¥«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥√«¡ (market cap) ®–‡æ‘Ë¡ 22% ®“° 4.8 ≈â“π≈â“π∫“∑
≥ ‘Èπªï 2546 ‡ªìπ 5.8 ≈â“π≈â“π∫“∑ ≥ ‘Èπªï 2547 ®“°º≈°“√¥”‡π‘π
ß“π¢Õß∫®. ∑’Ë§“¥«à“¬—ß®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß (§“¥°”‰√¢Õß∫®. ªï 2547
‡æ‘Ë¡‡©≈’Ë¬ 30% ·≈– ROE Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 22%) ·≈– —¥ à«π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬¢Õßµ≈“¥
/¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥√«¡‡©≈’Ë¬Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 135% ‡∑à“°—∫ªï 2546
§“¥°“√¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥œ (market cap) ·≈–¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π¢Õß
SET
(≈∫.)
2540
2541
2542
2543
2544
2545
2546
2547E
2548E
¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥ ¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥
‘πÈ ªï
‡©≈’Ë¬
1.133
1.268
2.193
1.279
1.607
1.986
4.790
5.844
6.720
1,841
1,212
1,765
1,570
1,480
1,797
3,388
5,317
6,282
¡Ÿ≈§à“
´◊ÈÕ¢“¬
927
855
1,610
924
1,587
2,039
4,579
7,178
8,481
¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬/
¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥
‡©≈’Ë¬
50%
71%
91%
59%
107%
113%
135%
135%
135%
¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬
‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π
(≈∫.)
3,801
3,504
6,598
3,786
6,476
8,357
18,768
29,417
34,757
∑’Ë¡“ :Syrus estimates
ªí®®—¬ªí®®—¬ π—∫ πÿπ°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬¢Õß SET ªí®®—¬
π—∫ πÿπ°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬¢Õß SET À≈—°Ê ‰¥â·°à
1) ¡Ÿ≈§à“µ≈“¥√«¡ (market cap) ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ®“° 2 ≈â“π≈â“π∫“∑ ≥
‘Èπªï 2545 ‡ªìπ 4.8 ≈â“π≈â“π∫“∑ ≥ ‘Èπªï 2546 ·≈–§“¥«à“®–
‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 5.8 ≈â“π≈â“π∫“∑„πªï 2547
2) °“√∑’Ë¡’∫√‘…—∑‡¢â“¡“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„πµ≈“¥œ ¡“°¢÷Èπ ‚¥¬„πªï 2546
¡’∫√‘…—∑„À¡à‡¢â“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π∑—Èß„π SET ·≈– MAI ª√–¡“≥ 30 ∫√‘…—∑
¢≥–∑’Ë„πªï 2547 §“¥«à“®”π«π∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë‡¢â“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„À¡à®– Ÿß°«à“
ªï 2546
3) °“√·ª√√Ÿª√—∞«‘ “À°‘® À≈—°Ê „πªï 2547 Õ“∑‘‡™àπ°“√‰øøÑ“ΩÉ“¬
º≈‘µœ, °“√∑à“Õ“°“»¬“π‰∑¬, ∑»∑. §Õ√åªÕ‡√™—Ëπ, °“√ ◊ËÕ “√·Ààß
ª√–‡∑»‰∑¬
4) °Õß∑ÿπ«“¬ÿ¿—°…å √«¡∂÷ßπ‚¬∫“¬¢Õß√—∞∫“≈∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡¡Á¥‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ
®“°‡ß‘πÕÕ¡¬â“¬¡“‡ªìπ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„πµ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬å
‡ªî¥‡ √’§à“§Õ¡¡‘™™—Ëπ ‚∫√°‡°Õ√å à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥ Ÿß‰¥â‡ª√’¬∫ SYRUS
§“¥«à“ ∑“ß°“√®–¬—ß‰¡à‡ªî¥‡ √’§à“§Õ¡¡‘™™—Ëπ∑—π∑’„πªï 2548 ·µà¡’ ‚Õ°“ Syrus
Contact person:
22
∑’Ë®–‡ªìπ‰ª„π≈—°…≥–§àÕ¬Ê ª√—∫≈¥ ·∫∫¢—Èπ∫—π‰¥ ·≈–®÷ß‡ªî¥‡ √’„π∑’Ë ÿ¥
∑—Èßπ’È SYRUS ·π–π” ∫≈. ∑’Ë¡’ à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ Ÿß ‡π◊ËÕß®“°®–‰¥â‡ª√’¬∫
„π°“√¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘® ‚¥¬ ∫≈. ∑’Ë¡’ à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ „π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 Ÿß
5 Õ—π¥—∫·√°‰¥â·°à KIMENG, ZMICO, AST, KGI, CNS Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡
Õ’°ªí®®—¬Àπ÷Ëß∑’Ë¡’ à«π ”§—≠µàÕ§«“¡ ”‡√Á®¢Õß∫≈. ‚¥¬‡©æ“–À≈—ß®“°°“√
‡ªî¥‡ √’§à“§Õ¡¡‘™™—Ëπ§◊Õª√– ‘∑∏‘¿“æ„π°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π «—¥‚¥¬ —¥ à«π
¢Õß§à“„™â®à“¬/√“¬‰¥â ´÷Ëß∫≈. ∑’Ë¡’ à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥ Ÿß à«π„À≠à ‰¥â·°à KEST,
AST, ZMICO ¡’ª√– ‘∑∏‘¿“æ„π°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π Ÿß‡™àπ°—π ¢≥–∑’Ë ∫≈.
Õ◊Ëπ∑’Ë¡’ª√– ‘∑∏‘¿“æ„π°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π Ÿß‰¥â·°à FNS, ASSET ´÷Ëß∑—Èß Õß
∫√‘…—∑¡’Ë√“¬‰¥â®“°∏ÿ√°‘®Õ◊Ëπ‡™àπ«“≥‘™∏π°‘® °“√∫√‘À“√°Õß∑ÿπ ‡¢â“¡“
‡ √‘¡√“¬‰¥â®“°§à“π“¬Àπâ“œ
ª√–‡¡‘πº≈°√–∑∫®“°°“√‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß¢Õß ¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬
µàÕ«—π °“√‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß¢Õß ¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π ®–¡’º≈µàÕ
°“√ª√–‡¡‘π¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿπâ ∫≈. æÕ ¡§«√ ‚¥¬®“°°“√ª√–‡¡‘π¢Õß SYRUS ∑ÿ°Ê
¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ∑’Ë‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰ª 1,000 ≈∫. ®–
°√–∑∫¡Ÿ≈§à“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¢Õß ∫≈. ‡©≈’Ë¬ª√–¡“≥ 5-10%
ª√– ‘∑∏‘¿“æ„π°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π
2546 (≈∫.)
FNS
ASSET
KEST
AST
US
ZMICO
KGI
SSEC
ASL
CNS
√“¬‰¥â §à“„™â®à“¬
®“°°“√
„π°“√
¥”‡π‘πß“π ¥”‡π‘πß“π
1,477
538
848
414
2,635
1,358
1,695
974
552
320
1,911
1,122
1,403
958
515
389
952
764
559
455
§à“„™â®à“¬ %§à“„™â®“à ¬ %§à“„™â®“à ¬ §à“„™â®à“¬
¥â“π
/√“¬‰¥â ∫ÿ§≈“°√/ ∫ÿ§≈“°√/
∫ÿ§≈“°√
√“¬‰¥â §à“„™â®à“¬√«¡
166
36%
11%
31%
343
49%
40%
83%
1,115
52%
42%
82%
758
57%
45%
78%
220
58%
40%
69%
897
59%
47%
80%
696
68%
50%
73%
258
76%
50%
66%
487
80%
51%
64%
290
81%
52%
64%
¬°‡«âπ FNS √“¬‰¥â®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‰¡à√«¡°”‰√®“°°“√´◊ÕÈ ¢“¬À≈—°∑√—æ¬å
·≈–√“¬‰¥âÕπ◊Ë
KGI, US ¬—ß‰¡àª√–°“»ß∫°“√‡ß‘π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ¥—ßπ—Èπ°“√«‘‡§√“–Àå®÷ß
Õ‘ß°—∫§“¥°“√≥å
Source: Company data, Syrus estimates
ª√–‡¡‘πº≈°√–∑∫®“°¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π∑’Ë‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß
à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ
‰µ√¡“ 4/2546
2.18%
3.02%
7.25%
3.83%
2.98%
12.04%
4.97%
2.21%
1.61%
7.57%
ASL
ASSET
AST
CNS
FNS
KEST
KGI
SSEC
US
ZMICO
√“§“ªî¥
9 °.æ.
11.60
99.50
92.00
91.00
52.50
59.50
5.10
25.75
16.50
12.70
30,000 ≈∫.
11.60
142.00
132.00
97.00
62.00
42.00
6.80
27.00
16.50
16.00
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
27,000 ≈∫.
8.1
124.1
112.3
78.0
54.4
34.1
5.8
14.5
11.2
13.4
* ∑ÿ°Ê ¡¡µ‘∞“π¡Ÿ≈§à“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬‡©≈’Ë¬µàÕ«—π¢Õßµ≈“¥œ ∑’Ë‡ª≈’Ë¬π‰ª 1,000 ≈∫.
∑’Ë¡“ : SET, Syrus estimates
Syrus
25,000 ≈∫.
5.8
112.1
99.1
65.3
49.4
28.9
5.1
6.2
7.7
11.7
º≈µÕ∫·∑π§“¥À«—ß(%)
°“√‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß
30,000 ≈∫. 27,000 ≈∫. 25,000 ≈∫.
¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“*
(0.0)
(30.0)
(49.9)
10%
42.7
24.7
12.7
4%
43.5
22.0
7.7
5%
6.6
(14.3)
(28.2)
7%
18.1
3.7
(6.0)
4%
(29.4)
(42.6)
(51.4)
6%
33.3
13.3
(0.0)
5%
4.9
(43.6)
(76.0)
15%
(32.0)
(53.4)
11%
26.0
5.5
(8.2)
5%
23
I nsight
Õÿµ “À°√√¡¢π àß∑“ß∑–‡≈¬—ß ¥„ µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
π—°«‘‡§√“–Àå : π—π∑«√√≥ ∫ÿ»√“«ß»å Tel 0-2646-9972 email : [email protected]
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (Time Charter Rate - TC Rate) ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ∫√√∑ÿ°
§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å
TC Rate (USD/Day)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
Jan-99
May-99
Sep-99
Jan-00
May-00
Sep-00
Jan-01
May-01
Sep-01
Jan-02
May-02
Sep-02
Jan-03
May-03
Sep-03
§à“√–«“ß‡√◊Õ‡∑°Õß‡æ‘Ë¡ 77% ®“°µâπªï 2543...§“¥§à“√–«“ß¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π
¢“¢÷ÈπÕ’°Õ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ 3-4 ªï Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate) ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ‡∑°Õß
‰¥âª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‚¥¬ª√—∫‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 77% ®“°µâπªï 2543 ∑’Ë
ª√–¡“≥ 3,900 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ (‰µ√¡“ 2/2543) ‡ªìπª√–¡“≥ 6,900
‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ „π‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·≈–‰¥âª√—∫µ—«¢÷ÈπÕ’°‡ªìπ 10,000
‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ „πªí®®ÿ∫—π ∑—Èßπ’ÈºŸâ‡™’Ë¬«™“≠„πÕÿµ “À°√√¡‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ‡∑°Õß
¬—ß¡Õß«à“Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ßπà“®–Õ¬Ÿà „π¢“¢÷ÈπÕ’°Õ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ 3-4 ªï ´÷Ëß‡ªìπº≈
¡“®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√¢π àß∑“ß‡√◊Õ∑’ËÕ¬Ÿà „π√–¥—∫∑’Ë Ÿß ®“°°“√øóôπµ—«¢Õß
‡»√…∞°‘®‚≈° ª√–°Õ∫°—∫§«“¡µâÕß°“√‡À≈Á°®“°®’π∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡ Ÿß¡“° ∑—Èßπ’È
‡æ◊ËÕ„™â „π°“√°àÕ √â“ß„π°’Ã“‚Õ≈‘¡ªî° „π¢≥–∑’Ë®”π«π‡√◊Õ„πµ≈“¥‚≈°
°≈—∫≈¥≈ß‡æ√“–Õ—µ√“°“√ª≈¥√–«“ß‡√◊Õ‡°à“ Ÿß°«à“Õ—µ√“°“√µàÕ‡√◊Õ„À¡à
400 Teu
1,000 Teu
1,700 Teu
2,200 Teu
∑’Ë¡“: Maersk broker
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß‡©≈’Ë¬ ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ∫√√∑ÿ°§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å (RCL)
AVG. Freight rate per TUE (US$)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
1Q2000
2Q2000
3Q2000
4Q2000
1Q2001
2Q2001
3Q2001
4Q2001
1Q2002
2Q2002
3Q2002
4Q2002
1Q2003
2Q2003
3Q2003
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß‡√◊Õ∫√√∑ÿ°µŸâ§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å¢π“¥‡≈Á°¬—ß¢÷Èπ‰¡à¡“° ”À√—∫
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ∫√√∑ÿ°µŸâ§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å ®–‡ÀÁπ‰¥â«à“§à“√–«“ß
”À√—∫‡√◊Õ¢π“¥„À≠à®–¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß°«à“§à“√–«“ß ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ
¢π“¥‡≈Á ° ‚¥¬§à “ √–«“ß ”À√— ∫ ‡√◊ Õ ‡≈Á ° §◊ Õ ¢π“¥∫√√®ÿ 400 µŸâ § Õπ
‡∑π‡πÕ√å ¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ‡æ’¬ß 17% ¿“¬„π 5 ªï ®“°Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß
„πªï 2542 ∑’Ë 4,200 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ ‡ªìπ 4,900 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ„πªï
2546 ·µà ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ¢π“¥„À≠à§◊Õ ¢π“¥∫√√®ÿ 2,200 µŸâ§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å¡’
Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß∂÷ß 121% ®“°Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ßªï 2542 ∑’Ë 9,500 ‡À√’¬≠
À√—∞œ ‡ªìπ 21,000 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ„πªï 2546
650 Teu
‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (Time Charter Rate - TC Rate) ”À√—∫
‡√◊Õª√–‡¿∑ ‘π§â“‡∑°Õß (PSL ·≈– TTA)
∑’Ë¡“: RCL
Quarterly TC Rate (per ship per day) in USD
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
Õ—µ√“°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ/≈¥≈ß¢Õß®”π«π‡√◊Õ‡∑°Õß„πµ≈“¥‚≈°
1/99
4/99
3/00
TTA
2/01
1/02
4/02
3/03
2004E
New building on order
2%
Potential scrapping of ships 27 years or older 8.7%
Capacity growth for dry bulk fleet (%)
-6.7%
2005E
0.6%
7.2%
-6.6%
2006E
0.1%
5.4%
-5.3%
PSL
∑’Ë¡“: PSL ·≈– CRS/Aries
∑’Ë¡“: PSL ·≈– TTA
§“¥ PSL ®–‰¥â√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå®“°™à«ß∑’Ë§à“√–«“ßÕ¬Ÿà„π¢“¢÷Èπ¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥ ‡¡◊ËÕ
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate)* ª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷πÈ Õ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ÕË ß „π¢≥–∑’§Ë “à „™â®“à ¬§ß∑’Ë
(Fixed cost) π—Èπ §àÕπ¢â“ß®–§ß∑’ËÀ√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡æ’¬ß‡≈Á°πâÕ¬ àßº≈„Àâ°”‰√
¢—Èπµâπª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπµ“¡§à“√–«“ß∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡ Ÿß¢÷Èπ ‡æ√“–©–π—Èπ„π¿“«–§à“
√–«“ß™à«ß¢“¢÷Èπ‡√“¡Õß«à“ PSL ´÷Ëß„Àâ∫√‘°“√„π≈—°…≥–„Àâ‡™à“‡À¡“≈”‡√◊Õ
Syrus
24
(Tramps) ®–‰¥â√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå¡“°°«à“ TTA ´÷Ëß¡’‡√◊Õ„Àâ∫√‘°“√·∫∫ª√–®”
‡ âπ∑“ß (Liner Business) Õ¬Ÿàª√–¡“≥ 50% ®“°®”π«π‡√◊Õ∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ à«π
RCL ®–‡ ’¬‡ª√’¬∫∑’Ë ÿ¥ ‡æ√“–∂÷ß·¡â«à“Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß ”À√—∫‡√◊Õ∫√√∑ÿ°µŸâ
§Õπ‡∑π‡πÕ√å®– Ÿß¢÷Èπ ·µà∫√‘…—∑´÷Ëß„Àâ∫√‘°“√·∫∫ª√–®”‡ âπ∑“ß (Liner
Business) ®÷ß‰¡à “¡“√∂ª√—∫¢÷Èπ§à“√–«“ß‰¥â¡“°π—° πÕ°®“°π’È∫√‘…—∑¬—ß¡’
‡√◊Õ‡™à“ 13 ≈” ®“°‡√◊Õ∑—Èß ‘Èπ 33 ≈” ´÷Ëß∫√‘…—∑µâÕß®à“¬§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate)
”À√—∫‡√◊Õ‡™à“„πÕ—µ√“∑’Ë Ÿß°«à“§à“√–«“ß‡√’¬°‡°Á∫®“°≈Ÿ°§â“
*§à“√–«“ß (TC Rate) = (√“¬‰¥â§à“√–«“ß - §à“„™â®à“¬º—π·ª√ ‡™àπ §à“„™â
®à“¬∑à“‡√◊Õ) / ®”π«π«—π‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ
PSL ¡’ P/E, P/gross cash flow µË” ÿ¥„πÀ¡«¥ ªí®®ÿ∫—π PSL ¡’√–¥—∫
P/E §‘¥®“°°”‰√ªï 2547 ∑’Ë 7.63 ‡∑à“ ´÷ËßµË”°«à“ TTA (P/E 8.94 ‡∑à“) ·≈–
RCL (P/E 10.75 ‡∑à“) ·≈–À“°æ‘®“√≥“ Gross cash flow (°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘
ª√—∫√“¬°“√¥â«¬√“¬°“√∑’Ë ‰¡à „™à‡ß‘π ¥) æ∫«à“ PSL ¡’ √“§“/Gross cash
flow ∑’ËµË”∑’Ë ÿ¥§◊Õ 5.69 ‡∑à“ ‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫√‘…—∑‡¥‘π‡√◊ÕÕ◊Ëπ TTA (P/gross
cash flow 7.33 ‡∑à“) ·≈– RCL (P/gross cash flow 7.12 ‡∑à“)
ºŸâª√–°Õ∫°“√µà“ß¢¬“¬°Õß‡√◊Õ‡æ◊ËÕ√—∫º≈ª√–‚¬™πå„π¿“«–‡øóòÕßøŸÕ¬à“ß
‡µÁ¡∑’Ë...®”π«π‡√◊Õ¢Õß TTA ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¡“° ÿ¥ „πªï 2546 PSL ‰¥â´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ
‡æ‘Ë¡ 5 ≈” ®“°‡¥‘¡ 28 ≈” ¡“‡ªìπ 33 ≈”„π¢≥–π’È ‚¥¬‡√“§“¥«à“∫√‘…—∑
®–´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’°‰µ√¡“ ≈– 3 ≈” µ—Èß·µà ‰µ√¡“ 2/2547 ∂÷ß‰µ√¡“ 4/
2547 √«¡ 9 ≈” àßº≈„Àâ§“¥°“√≥å‡√◊Õ¢Õß PSL ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 42 ≈” ≥. ‘Èπ
ªï 2547 à«π‡√◊Õ¢Õß TTA ‡¡◊ËÕµâπªï 2546 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 25 ≈” ´÷Ëß∫√‘…—∑‰¥â´◊ÈÕ
‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 9 ≈” ·≈–¢“¬∑‘Èß 1 ≈” àßº≈„Àâ®”π«π‡√◊Õ ‘Èπªï 2546 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 33
≈” ·≈–„πªï 2547 ∫√‘…—∑¡’·ºπ´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’°Õ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ 13 ≈” ¡“‡ªìπ 46
≈” ‚¥¬µ—Èß·µàµâπªï 2547 ∫√‘…—∑¡’°“√´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ¡“·≈â« 7 ≈” ‡ªìπ®”π«π‡√◊Õ
≈à“ ÿ¥∑’Ë 40 ≈” ‚¥¬ √ÿª„πªï 2546 ®π∂÷ßªí®®ÿ∫—π PSL ´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡·≈â« 5
≈” ·≈–§“¥°“√≥å®–´◊ÈÕ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 9 ≈” à«π TTA ´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡·≈â« 15 ≈”
·≈–§“¥°“√≥å«à“®–´◊ÈÕ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 6 ≈” ∑—Èßπ’ÈÀ“°∑—Èß PSL À√◊Õ TTA ¡’°“√
´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ¡“°°«à“/πâÕ¬°«à“‡√◊Õ∑’Ë‡√“§“¥°“√≥å ‰«â √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬Õ“®¡’°“√
‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß ‚¥¬À“°¡’°“√´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡¡“°°«à“∑’Ë§“¥°“√≥å ®–∑”„Àâ¡Ÿ≈§à“
µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊πÈ ∞“π‡æ‘¡Ë ¢÷πÈ „π∑“ßµ√ß°—π¢â“¡À“¡´◊ÕÈ ‡√◊ÕπâÕ¬°«à“∑’§Ë “¥°“√≥å
Õ“®∑”„Àâ¡Ÿ≈§à“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π≈¥≈ß
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß¢Õß RCL ‡æ‘Ëß‡√‘Ë¡ª√—∫µ—«¢÷Èπ„π‰µ√¡“ 2/2546 ·≈–¡’
‚Õ°“ ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ’° ∂÷ß·¡â«à“ RCL ®–ª√—∫Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß‡√’¬°‡°Á∫®“°≈Ÿ°§â“
‰¥â ‰¡à¡“°π—° ·≈–Õ—µ√“§à“‡™à“‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¡“°°«à“°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¢ÕßÕ—µ√“§à“
√–«“ß ·µà§à“‡™à“‡√◊Õ§‘¥‡ªìπ —¥ à«π‡æ’¬ßª√–¡“≥ 10% ¢Õßµâπ∑ÿπ ·≈–
Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß¢Õß RCL ´÷Ëßª√—∫µ—«≈¥≈ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕßµ—Èß·µàªï 2543 ·µà‰¥â‡√‘Ë¡
ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 5.2% „π‰µ√¡“ 2/2546 ·≈– 2.3% „π‰µ√¡“ 3/2546
·≈–ºŸâ∫√‘À“√°≈à“««à“§à“√–«“ß¢Õß RCL °”≈—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π¢“¢÷Èπ ´÷Ëß¡’ ‚Õ°“ ª√—∫
µ—«¢÷Èπ„π≈—°…≥–§àÕ¬‡ªìπ§àÕ¬‰ª ∑—Èßπ’ÈÕ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß¢Õß RCL „πªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë
186.62 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ ¬—ß§ßµË”°«à“Õ—µ√“∑’‡Ë §¬¢÷πÈ ‰ª Ÿß ÿ¥„π™à«ßµâπªï 2544
∑’Ë 218 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞œ À“°Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß¢Õß RCL ‡æ‘Ë¡°≈—∫‰ª Ÿà√–¥—∫„π
ªï 2544 ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ëº≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π®–¥’¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß¡’π—¬ ”§—≠
Syrus
°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„π RCL ®–ª≈Õ¥¿—¬∑’Ë ÿ¥ ·¡â«à“Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß∑’Ë RCL ‡√’¬°
‡°Á∫®“°≈Ÿ°§â“®–ª√—∫¢÷Èπ‰¥â ‰¡à‡√Á«π—°„π™à«ß√–«“ß¢“¢÷Èπ ‡æ√“–«à“≈Ÿ°§â“‰¥â
®Õß√–«“ß‡√◊Õ≈à«ßÀπâ“‰«â·≈â« ·µàÀ“°„π™à«ß√–«“ß¢“≈ß Õ—µ√“§à“√–«“ß
¢Õß∫√‘…—∑ °Á§àÕ¬Ê ª√—∫≈ß‡™àπ°—π ‡æ√“–©–π—Èπº≈ª√–°Õ∫°“√¢Õß RCL
®÷ß§àÕπ¢â“ß®–¡—Ëπ§ß (stable growth) πÕ°®“°π’È ∫√‘…—∑‰¥â∑” —≠≠“´◊ÈÕ
‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡ 6 ≈” ‡æ◊ËÕ¡“∑¥·∑π‡√◊Õ‡™à“ ‚¥¬‡√◊Õ®– àß¡Õ∫„πªï 2548 §“¥®–
àßº≈„Àâ§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√∑”°”‰√¢Õß RCL ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°∫√‘…—∑
“¡“√∂≈¥µâπ∑ÿπ„π°“√‡™à“‡√◊Õ ·≈–√—∫ª√–‚¬™πå®“° ¿“«–§à“√–«“ß¢“
¢÷Èπ‰¥â¡“°¢÷Èπ À“°æ‘®“√≥“ P/BV ¢Õß RCL ∑’Ë 1.7 ®–µË”°«à“ TTA ·≈–
PSL ´÷ËßÕ¬Ÿà∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 4.6 ‡∑à“¡“° ·≈–∂÷ß·¡â P/E ¢Õß RCL ∑’Ë 10.8 ‡∑à“
®– Ÿß°«à“ PSL ·≈– TTA ∑’Ë 7.6 ‡∑à“ ·≈– 8.9 ‡∑à“ ·µà‡ªìπ‡æ√“– RCL ¡’
‡√◊ÕÕ“¬ÿπÕâ ¬∑’ Ë ¥ÿ ∑”„Àâ§“à „™â®“à ¬§à“‡ ◊ÕË ¡√“§“Õ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß ‚¥¬À“°æ‘®“√≥“
P/Gross Cash flow À√◊Õ√“§“Àÿâπ‡∑’¬∫°—∫°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥ RCL ®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë
7.1 ‡∑à“ µË”°«à“ TTA ∑’Ë 7.3 ‡≈Á°πâÕ¬ ¢≥–∑’ PSL ®–µË” ÿ¥∑’Ë 5.7 ‡∑à“
µ“√“ß √ÿª§à“„™â®à“¬∑’Ë≈¥≈ß¢Õß RCL ®“°°“√´◊ÈÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡ 6 ≈”
§à“„™â®“à ¬∑’≈Ë ¥≈ß
§à“‡™à“‡√◊Õ 6 ≈” 789 ≈∫.
§à“„™â®à“¬∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
§à“‡ ◊ËÕ¡√“§“ 296 ≈∫.
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®à“¬ 283 ≈∫.
√«¡ 579 ≈∫.
§à“„™â®à“¬ ÿ∑∏‘
µâπ∑ÿπ/§à“„™â®à“¬≈¥≈ß210 ≈∫.
∑’Ë¡“: SYRUS estimates
Top picks: PSL ·≈– RCL ‡√“‡≈◊Õ° PSL ‡ªìπÀÿâπ‡¥àπ„π°≈ÿà¡§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß
(Beta) Ÿß ‡π◊ËÕß®“°„π§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß∑’Ë‡∑à“°—π §◊Õ §à“‡∫µâ“ ‡∑à“°—∫ 1.33 PSL
°≈—∫„Àâº≈µÕ∫·∑π∑’Ë Ÿß°«à“ TTA §◊Õ PSL „Àâº≈µÕ∫·∑π 55.9% ·≈–
TTA „Àâº≈µÕ∫·∑π‡æ’¬ß 32.6% ·≈–‡√“‡≈◊Õ° RCL ”À√—∫°≈ÿà¡§«“¡
‡ ’Ë¬ßµË” ‚¥¬ RCL „Àâº≈µÕ∫·∑π 45%
°√“ø‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫√–À«à“ß§«“¡‡ ’¬Ë ß·≈–º≈µÕ∫·∑π√–À«à“ß∫√‘…∑— ‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ
Return (%)
PSL
Return 55.9%
Beta 1.33
RCL
Return 45%
Beta 1.06
TTA
Return 32.6%
Beta 1.33
Beta*
* Adjusted beta
∑’Ë¡“: Syrus estimates
25
µ“√“ß‡ª√’¬∫‡∑’¬∫√–À«à“ß∫√‘…—∑„π°≈ÿà¡‡¥‘π‡√◊Õ : RCL, PSL ·≈– TTA
®”π«π‡√◊Õ ( ‘Èπªï 2545)
®”π«π‡√◊Õ (6 °.æ. 2547)
®”π«π‡√◊Õ (‡ªÑ“À¡“¬)
Õ“¬ÿ‡©≈’Ë¬°Õß‡√◊Õ
Net D/E
Õ—µ√“º≈µÕ∫·∑π**
√“§“ªî¥ (6 °.æ. 47)
P/PV Gross cash flow
P/Gross cash flow
P/E
P/BV
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
P/PV Gross cash flow
P/Gross cash flow
P/E
P/BV
RCL
23*
23*
29*
9.5
1.0
45.0
20
0.47
7.12
10.75
1.67
29.00
0.69
10.32
15.59
2.42
PSL
28
33
42
15
1.3
55.9
44.25
0.54
5.69
7.63
4.56
69.00
0.85
8.87
11.90
7.11
TTA
25
40
46
17
0.8
32.6
44.50
0.73
7.33
8.94
4.59
59.00
0.97
9.72
11.85
6.08
À¡“¬‡Àµÿ
‡¥‘¡ PSL ¡’‡√◊Õ¡“° ÿ¥
¢≥–π’È TTA ¡’‡√◊Õ¡“° ÿ¥
§“¥ TTA ¡’‡√◊Õ¡“° ÿ¥
°Õß‡√◊Õ RCL ¡’Õ“¬ÿ‡©≈’Ë¬πâÕ¬ ÿ¥
§“¥°“√≥å D/E (2004E) ¢Õß TTA µË” ÿ¥
PSL ¡’º≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß ÿ¥
RCL µË” ÿ¥
PSL µË” ÿ¥
PSL µË” ÿ¥
RCL µË” ÿ¥
RCL µË” ÿ¥
PSL µË” ÿ¥
TTA µË” ÿ¥
RCL µË” ÿ¥
*¢≥–π’È‡√◊Õ∑’Ë RCL ‡ªìπ‡®â“¢Õß¡’Õ¬Ÿà 23 ≈” ‡ªìπ‡√◊Õ‡™à“Õ’° 13 ≈” ‚¥¬ RCL µàÕ‡√◊Õ‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 6 ≈” ‡æ◊ËÕ∑¥·∑π‡√◊Õ‡™à“
**®“°º≈µà“ß¢Õß√“§“ªî¥·≈–√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ (capital gain)
∑’Ë¡“:SYRUS estimates
Syrus
26
M arket Statistics
SET statistics
SET Perfomance
Nov/28/03 Jan/30/04
SET
646.03
698.90
Market turnover (Bt mn) 672,815.07 823,445.18
Market cap (Bt bn)
3,860.30 4,725.19
Market P/E (x)
10.98
12.56
Market P/BV (x)
2.18
2.67
Market yield (%)
2.23
2.06
Index
Nov/28/03 Jan/30/04
SET
SET 50
DJIA (USA)
NASDAQ (USA)
FTSE (UK)
NIX (Japan)
HSKI (Hong Kong)
TWII (Taiwan)
SES (Singapore)
646.03
39.40
9,782.46
1,960.26
4,342.60
10,100.57
12,317.47
5,771.77
1,714.00
Source : SetSmart
698.90
46.27
10,488.07
2,066.15
4,390.70
10,783.61
13,289.37
6,375.38
1,848.36
Chg
(pts)
52.87
6.87
705.61
105.89
48.10
683.04
971.90
603.61
134.36
% chg
8.18
17.44
7.21
5.40
1.11
6.76
7.89
10.46
7.84
Chg YTD % chg YTD
(pts)
(73.25)
(9.49)
(4.64)
(9.11)
34.15
0.33
62.78
3.13
(86.20)
(1.93)
106.97
1.00
713.43
5.67
484.69
8.23
83.84
4.75
Source : Reuters (Bisnews)
SET Sectors Perfomance (as of Nov 28, 2003)
% Change
1 Month
SET Index
(9.49)
Agribusiness
(7.75)
Banking
(13.30)
Building Materials
(4.75)
Chemical & Plastics
(9.80)
Commerce
(3.26)
Communication
(3.86)
Electrical Products
(5.91)
Electronics
(3.15)
Energy
(10.82)
Entertainment
(15.05)
Finance & Securities
(4.65)
Foods & Beverages
(8.10)
Health Care Services
(9.41)
Hotel & Travel Services
(10.19)
Household
(6.44)
3 Month
9.30
(16.34)
13.83
10.21
31.25
6.42
36.94
(9.63)
1.50
50.19
(3.20)
(3.68)
(7.75)
(9.42)
(14.83)
(16.23)
Syrus
6 Month
44.37
(11.45)
31.07
53.78
108.54
23.93
50.38
21.15
(7.69)
96.54
7.72
39.45
3.28
27.16
11.25
5.89
YTD
(9.49)
(7.75)
(13.30)
(4.75)
(9.80)
(5.54)
(3.86)
(5.91)
(3.15)
(10.82)
(15.05)
(4.65)
(8.10)
(9.41)
(10.19)
(6.44)
% Change
Insurance
Jewelry
Machinery
Mining
Others
Packaging
Phamaceutical
Printing & Publishing
Prof. Services
Property
Pulp & Paper
Textiles
Transportation
Vehicles
Warehouse & Silo
MAI Index
1 Month
(1.14)
(5.15)
(11.68)
(13.24)
(8.99)
(11.20)
2.64
(4.16)
(0.19)
(12.14)
(2.35)
(7.90)
3.50
(0.50)
11.01
(4.90)
3 Month
(1.63)
(3.18)
25.62
(33.04)
(15.85)
(20.32)
9.17
(2.86)
(0.29)
(6.28)
(3.37)
(11.16)
10.15
(6.34)
(17.60)
(10.81)
6 Month
4.68
(3.50)
26.37
(3.38)
19.54
23.16
12.19
18.81
15.40
60.83
40.15
2.51
42.89
51.39
52.91
81.82
YTD
(1.14)
(5.15)
(11.68)
(13.24)
(8.99)
(11.20)
2.64
(4.16)
(0.19)
(12.14)
(2.35)
(7.90)
3.50
(0.50)
11.01
(4.90)
27
Top 20 Stocks by Market Capitalization
Security
PTT
SCC
ADVANC
BBL
PTTEP
KBANK
KTB
SHIN
THAI
LH
SCB-P
SCB
SCCC
ATC
TPI
RATCH
SCIB
TOC
N-PARK
SSI
Mkt. Cap. Close
Close
% chg % chg YTD
(Mil. Baht) Nov/28/03 Jan/30/04
447,559.32
107.00
160.00
49.53
(13.51)
292,800.00
208.00
244.00
17.31
(3.94)
235,124.77
65.00
80.00
23.08
(5.88)
180,353.05
83.00
94.50
13.86
(13.30)
174,842.66
196.00
268.00
36.73
1.52
128,704.54
42.50
54.50
28.24
(16.15)
122,974.50
8.65
11.00
27.17
(9.84)
106,742.09
28.50
36.25
27.19
(6.45)
82,565.00
49.75
49.00
(1.51)
7.10
81,026.25
11.50
11.40
(0.87)
(7.32)
80,697.82
39.50
45.75
15.82
(14.49)
65,066.53
40.50
46.50
14.81
(15.45)
60,000.00
206.00
240.00
16.50
5.26
57,001.00
47.50
59.50
25.26
(6.30)
56,119.72
17.00
7.15
(57.94)
(47.81)
53,650.00
37.25
37.00
(0.67)
(24.49)
51,975.14
0.20
24.60 12,200.00
2.07
48,447.32
46.50
59.00
26.88
(19.18)
46,731.53
6.20
5.80
(6.45)
(25.64)
45,199.42
39.00
34.50
(11.54)
(0.72)
Source : SetSmart
Top 10 Gainers
Security
SCIB
DISTAR
MEDIAS
ITV
SVI-W1
UCOM
PTT
SATTEL
SCB-W
NPC
Close
Close
% Chg
Nov/28/03 Jan/30/04
0.20
24.60 12,200.00
5.50
50.50
818.18
4.10
29.00
607.32
15.10
25.75
70.53
3.20
5.45
70.31
25.00
42.00
68.00
102.00
160.00
56.86
23.60
36.25
53.60
7.20
11.00
52.78
85.00
126.00
48.24
Source : SetSmart
Syrus
28
Turnover Classified by Investors
Dec 03 - Jan 04
Local Institutions
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
Year - to - date (Jan ù04)
Local Institutions
Foreign Investors
Local Investors
Buy
117,009.90
233,218.51
1,340,247.74
Buy
60,577.47
124,413.64
638,454.07
%
Sell
6.92 105,491.55
13.80 260,579.36
79.28 1,324,405.24
%
Sell
7.36
56,606.97
15.11 146,777.42
77.53 620,060.79
Source : SetSmart
Exchange rates
Bt/US$
Yen/US$
US$/Euro
Yen/Euro
Dec/31/03
39.58
107.31
1.26
134.97
Nov/28/03
39.90
109.60
1.20
131.40
Jan/30/04
39.23
105.76
1.25
131.79
Dec/31/03
30.30
414.80
Nov/28/03
28.95
397.50
Jan/30/04
29.68
402.20
Commodities
Oil Brent (US$/bbl)
Gold (US$/ounce)
Syrus
%
6.24
15.41
78.35
%
6.87
17.82
75.30
Net
11,518.35
(27,360.85)
15,842.50
Net
3,970.50
(22,363.78)
18,393.28
29
S tock Highlight
Àÿâπ∑’Ë¡’§à“ P/E µË”°«à“ 10 ‡∑à“
(Bt)
ConMat
Prop
Elec
Others
Energy
Trans
Secu
Fin
Secu
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Retal&Wh
Text
Agri/Food
Bank
Rehabco
Prop
Fin
Tele
Pak
Bank
Agri/Food
Auto
Agri/Food
Secu
Agri/Food
Secu
Secu
Mai
Prop
Chem
Trans
Elec
Other
Prop
Bank
Chem
Mai
Bank
Prop
Others
Energy
Fin
Elec
Bank
Fin
Agri/Food
Hotel
Energy
Auto
Elec
Pak
Hospital
Secu
Agri/Food
Trans
TPIPL
SPALI
KRP
PRANDA
BANPU
THAI
FNS
KK
US
UVAN
SSF
ROBINS
PAF
UPOIC
DTDB
THL
MK
NFS
JAS
AJ
IFCT
LST
YUASA
CM
KGI
S&P
ASSET
ASL
TEAM
LPN
UV
PSL
CCET
CWT
NOBLE
BAY
TCB
PD
TMB
PF
PATKL
RATCH
TISCO
CEI
KTB
THANI
TIPCO
LRH
SCG
BAT-3K
DELTA
CSC
SKR
CNS
TUF
TTA
Recomm
Close End-04 % exp P/E (x)
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
6-Feb
37.50
4.72
4.64
7.05
133.00
49.50
52.00
45.75
16.00
25.00
2.86
3.78
5.90
45.00
3.82
4.60
4.36
15.70
9.90
6.30
5.25
24.20
30.00
48.00
5.00
25.75
94.50
11.10
3.38
45.50
3.50
44.25
35.75
30.50
14.20
12.10
21.10
17.00
4.56
13.50
5.05
38.25
28.50
17.00
11.20
1.47
6.10
50.50
4.20
63.00
24.60
27.75
11.00
81.00
28.50
44.50
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
target return 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E
52.00 38.7 4.15
3.8
0.9
0.7
- 21.6 19.5 9.04 9.98 43.8
6.90 46.2 2.81
3.8
1.1
0.9
8.0
5.8 49.7 25.0 1.68 1.23
4.3
9.00 94.0 (6.63)
4.3
1.2
0.9
- (18.4) 20.7 (0.70) 1.07
3.8
9.00 27.7 5.38
4.5
0.9
0.8
9.9
9.9 18.1 18.7 1.31 1.58
7.7
177.00 33.1 20.68
4.7
2.4
1.6
2.3
2.3 11.6 34.9 6.43 28.05 55.9
65.00 31.3 5.56
5.8
2.1
1.6
3.0
4.3 36.9 30.8 8.90 8.48 23.2
62.00 19.2 8.75
5.9
2.3
1.7
3.4
5.1 24.6 30.0 5.94 8.80 22.5
55.00 20.2 8.33
6.0
1.3
1.2
6.0
7.2 18.2 21.0 5.49 7.67 34.1
17.00
6.3 7.02
6.0
2.0
1.5
- 33.1 28.3 2.28 2.65
8.1
35.00 40.0 5.52
6.4
2.9
2.4
9.1
7.8 48.8 37.1 4.53 3.91
8.6
3.30 15.4 7.53
6.5
0.6
0.5
5.2
6.3
7.6
8.2 0.38 0.44
5.1
6.34 67.7 7.13
6.5
2.5
2.1
- 36.4 32.1 0.53 0.58
1.5
9.00 52.5 4.54
6.6
0.6
0.6
8.5
8.5 14.3
9.6 1.30 0.90
9.9
54.00 20.0 6.53
6.6
1.5
1.3
8.6
8.4 30.6 26.5 6.89 6.78 31.0
- (3.24)
6.7
2.2
1.7
- (69.5) 25.1 (1.18) 0.57
1.7
6.53 42.0 (57.50)
6.8
2.9
2.1
- (5.4) 36.1 (0.08) 0.68
1.6
5.90 35.3 3.86
6.8
1.0
0.9
- 135.3 30.5 13.3 1.13 0.64
4.5
22.00 40.1 7.85
6.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
5.7 11.4 10.4 2.00 2.27 14.4
7.00 (29.3) 0.67
7.0
0.3
0.3
5.1 45.7
4.2 14.70 1.41 32.2
6.30 (0.0) 7.50
7.1
2.4
2.0
8.1
4.0 38.8 31.4 0.84 0.89
2.6
- 13.82
7.1
0.7
0.6
4.8
8.6 0.38 0.74
7.9
35.00 44.6 9.10
8.0
1.6
1.5
7.7
8.7 17.7 18.9 2.66 3.02 15.1
40.00 33.3 7.87
7.2
0.7
0.7
6.3
7.0
9.2
9.8 3.81 4.19 41.5
60.00 25.0 8.44
7.2
0.9
0.9
7.1
8.3 11.2 12.4 5.69 6.66 50.7
6.80 36.0 10.64
7.4
2.4
2.0
4.8
6.8 15.3 29.8 0.47 0.68
2.1
34.50 34.0 9.87
7.4
1.5
1.2
5.4
7.4
0.2
0.2 2.61 3.50 17.3
142.00 50.3 12.21
7.4
5.1
3.8
8.1
6.7 50.5 58.6 7.74 12.71 18.6
11.60
4.5 37.00
7.5
0.7
0.7
1.4
6.7
6.9 17.2 0.30 1.48 15.1
4.00 18.3 10.56
7.5
1.7
1.5
3.8
3.8 18.6 21.5 0.32 0.45
2.0
67.00 47.3 9.44
7.6
2.7
2.2
5.3
6.6 32.3 32.1 4.82 6.01 16.9
6.00 71.4 13.46
7.6
1.4
1.1
1.1
2.0 14.4 20.8 0.26 0.46
2.5
69.00 55.9 14.75
7.6 11.6
4.6
1.1
6.6 62.2 59.9 3.00 5.80
3.8
43.00 20.3 8.09
7.8
1.6
1.5
8.4
7.7 20.2 19.2 4.42 4.56 22.1
55.00 80.3 (277.27)
7.8
1.4
1.2
- (0.5) 14.9 (0.11) 3.89 22.3
20.50 44.4 8.28
8.0
2.7
2.2
3.5
3.8 38.0 30.0 1.72 1.78
5.3
17.00 40.5 15.32
8.0
1.2
1.0
3.7
7.6 12.7 0.79 1.51 10.4
33.00 56.4 11.59
8.1
1.5
1.3
2.8
2.8 13.0 16.4 1.82 2.61 14.2
21.00 23.5 10.00
8.1
4.1
3.1
5.0
6.2 41.0 38.9 1.70 2.10
4.1
- (3.38)
8.1
2.1
1.6
- (61.0) 20.2 (1.35) 0.56
2.2
20.00 48.1 9.71
8.2
2.3
2.2
3.6 39.5 43.7 1.39 1.65
6.0
6.50 28.7 3.52
8.3
1.0
1.5
3.0
3.6 31.1 23.8 1.44 0.61
5.3
53.00 38.6 9.78
8.3
2.2
1.9
3.9
4.8 22.7 22.9 3.91 4.62 17.2
40.00 40.4 10.71
8.4
2.0
1.7
2.8
5.9 21.4 21.7 2.66 3.38 14.4
24.00 41.2 8.85
8.5
1.6
1.9
7.4
9.4 21.6 21.9 1.92 2.00 10.4
15.00 33.9 14.36
8.6
1.7
1.5
4.2
4.5 11.6 17.2 0.78 1.30
6.7
2.00 36.1 12.25
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.1
5.4
9.7 12.4 0.12 0.17
1.3
8.50 39.3 8.93
8.7
3.0
2.4
0.2
3.5 33.7 28.4 0.68 0.70
2.0
52.00
3.0 13.47
8.7
0.7
0.7
4.1
5.7
4.9
7.3 3.75 5.79 69.8
6.30 50.0 0.85
8.7
0.3
1.9 35.2
3.3 29.9 21.5 4.93 0.48 16.5
80.00 27.0 9.69
8.8
0.9
0.9
3.1
3.4 10.5 11.1 6.50 7.15 61.9
37.00 50.4 19.07
8.8
2.1
2.0
3.7
9.1 10.8 23.3 1.29 2.79 11.9
35.00 26.1 7.48
8.9
2.3
1.8
- 35.8 22.7 3.71 3.13 12.2
21.00 90.9 9.57
8.9
2.8
2.2
- 43.2 27.7 1.15 1.24
3.9
97.00 19.8 47.37
8.9
1.6
1.4
2.1
5.6
3.5 17.1 1.71 9.11 49.8
38.50 35.1 10.71
8.9
2.2
2.0
6.5
7.6 20.2 22.5 2.66 3.20 13.2
59.00 32.6 24.32
8.9 14.4
4.6
1.1
4.5 59.3 51.1 1.83 4.98
3.1
%
EPS gr
2004E 04/03E
51.3 10.4
5.5 (27.0)
5.2 (252.9)
9.2 20.6
81.1 336.2
31.9 (4.7)
30.5 48.1
39.0 39.7
10.7 16.2
1.1 (13.7)
5.3 15.8
1.8
9.4
10.1 (30.8)
35.1 (1.6)
2.3 (148.3)
2.2 (950.0)
5.1 (43.4)
15.0 13.5
33.6 (90.4)
3.1
6.0
8.6 94.7
16.0 25.4
43.8 10.0
53.9 17.0
2.5 44.7
20.8 34.1
24.9 64.2
15.8 393.3
2.2 40.6
20.5 24.7
3.1 76.9
9.7 93.3
23.9
3.2
26.2 (3,636.4)
6.6
4.0
11.9 91.1
16.3 43.4
5.4 23.5
2.8 (141.5)
6.2 18.7
3.3 (57.5)
20.2 18.2
16.8 27.1
9.1
4.2
7.5 66.7
1.4 41.7
2.5
2.9
72.7 54.4
2.2 (90.3)
67.1 10.0
12.6 116.3
15.4 (15.6)
5.1
7.8
57.1 432.7
14.6 20.3
9.7 172.1
∑’Ë¡“: Company data, Syrus Research
Syrus
30
Àÿâπ∑’Ë¡’§à“ P/E µË”°«à“ 10 ‡∑à“ (µàÕ)
(Bt)
Bank
Bank
Secu
Mai
Bank
Auto
Energy
Prop
Commerc
Prop
ConMat
Auto
Bank
Agri/Food
SCIB
BOA
AST
IRCP
SCB
SPSU
RPC
SAMCO
BIGC
QH
CCP
TRU
KBANK
GFPT
Recomm
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
6-Feb
26.00
4.52
88.50
14.60
47.50
12.00
33.75
3.10
18.20
7.00
33.00
18.30
55.00
20.00
target return
33.00 26.9
5.50 21.7
132.00 49.2
23.00 57.5
59.00 24.2
14.00 16.7
36.00
6.7
3.70 19.4
20.00
9.9
8.20 17.1
48.00 45.5
22.00 20.2
71.00 29.1
18.00 (10.0)
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
15.20
9.1
1.7
1.5
2.6
4.4 11.1 16.3 1.71 2.87 15.4 17.6
12.56
9.2
1.7
1.4
- 13.1 15.2 0.36 0.49
2.7
3.2
14.73
9.3
4.3
3.7
6.7
5.4 33.2 42.7 6.01 9.52 20.5 24.1
13.90
9.4
4.4
3.6
3.4
5.3 31.8 38.2 1.05 1.56
3.3
4.1
12.03
9.4
2.1
1.8
2.9
3.8 17.8 19.1 3.95 5.06 22.2 26.4
10.71
9.5
0.8
0.8
3.6
4.0
9.6
8.7 1.12 1.26 13.9 15.2
13.34
9.5
3.2
2.4
0.7
1.5 24.1 25.6 2.53 3.54 10.5 13.8
10.58
9.5
0.9
0.9
4.8
6.1
8.8
9.2 0.29 0.32
3.4
3.6
10.40
9.6
3.1
3.3
2.9
3.1 11.9 11.8 1.75 1.90
5.8
5.5
10.94
9.6
1.5
1.3
4.9
7.4 20.0 19.0 0.64 0.73
4.7
5.4
13.92
9.7
2.8
2.3
2.9
4.1 20.1 23.8 2.37 3.39 11.8 14.3
31.02
9.9
3.9
2.8
2.4
7.5
9.4 23.2 0.59 1.85
4.7
6.5
8.73
9.9
2.7
2.3
3.0 30.6 23.2 6.30 5.55 20.6 23.8
5.24 10.0
0.7
0.7
9.5
5.0 13.2
6.7 3.82 2.00 28.9 29.3
%
EPS gr
04/03E
67.8
36.1
58.4
48.6
28.1
12.5
39.9
10.9
8.6
14.1
43.0
213.6
(11.9)
(47.6)
Àÿâπ∑’Ë¡’§à“ P/BV πâÕ¬°«à“ 1.0 ‡∑à“
(Bt)
Agri/Food
Tele
Agri/Food
Deco&Hou
Text
Bank
Agri/Food
Auto
Hotel
Secu
ConMat
Others
Auto
Bank
Agri/Food
Prop
Prop
Prop
Fin
Auto
Agri/Food
Tele
Agri/Food
Elec
Auto
Elec
Bank
Prop
Tele
Fin
Fin
CFRESH
JAS
SSF
SITHAI
PAF
IFCT
GFPT
YUASA
LRH
ASL
TPIPL
PRANDA
SPSU
BT
HFT
MK
SPALI
SAMCO
NVL
HFT
CPF
IEC
CM
KRP
BAT-3K
CTW
BAY
ESTAR
TT&T
THANI
NFS
Recomm
HOLD
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
6-Feb
3.26
9.90
2.86
8.25
5.90
5.25
20.00
30.00
50.50
11.10
37.50
7.05
12.00
6.65
28.00
4.36
4.72
3.10
1.60
29.50
3.90
11.80
48.00
4.64
63.00
10.40
12.10
3.76
5.20
1.47
15.70
Syrus
target
3.50
7.00
3.30
11.00
9.00
18.00
40.00
52.00
11.60
52.00
9.00
14.00
7.80
43.50
5.90
6.90
3.70
2.00
43.50
3.20
7.00
60.00
7.00
80.00
14.40
17.00
6.70
5.30
2.00
22.00
return
7.4
(29.3)
15.4
33.3
52.5
(10.0)
33.3
3.0
4.5
38.7
27.7
16.7
17.3
55.4
35.3
46.2
19.4
25.0
47.5
(17.9)
(40.7)
25.0
50.8
27.0
38.5
40.5
78.2
1.9
36.1
40.1
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
(46.57) 11.6
0.2
0.2
4.6 (2.4)
8.4 (0.07) 0.28 17.9 15.3
0.67
7.0
0.3
0.3
5.1 45.7
4.2 14.70 1.41 32.2 33.6
7.53
6.5
0.6
0.5
5.2
6.3
7.6
8.2 0.38 0.44
5.1
5.3
12.31 10.7
0.6
0.6
3.6
4.6
4.8
5.3 0.67 0.77 14.0 14.4
4.54
6.6
0.6
0.6
8.5
8.5 14.3
9.6 1.30 0.90
9.9 10.1
13.82
7.1
0.7
0.6
4.8
8.6 0.38 0.74
7.9
8.6
5.24 10.0
0.7
0.7
9.5
5.0 13.2
6.7 3.82 2.00 28.9 29.3
7.87
7.2
0.7
0.7
6.3
7.0
9.2
9.8 3.81 4.19 41.5 43.8
13.47
8.7
0.7
0.7
4.1
5.7
4.9
7.3 3.75 5.79 69.8 72.7
37.00
7.5
0.7
0.7
1.4
6.7
6.9 17.2 0.30 1.48 15.1 15.8
4.15
3.8
0.9
0.7
- 21.6 19.5 9.04 9.98 43.8 51.3
5.38
4.5
0.9
0.8
9.9
9.9 18.1 18.7 1.31 1.58
7.7
9.2
10.71
9.5
0.8
0.8
3.6
4.0
9.6
8.7 1.12 1.26 13.9 15.2
(5.24) 30.2
0.9
0.8
- (17.1)
2.7 (1.27) 0.22
7.4
8.1
14.00 10.5
0.9
0.8
6.9
8.2 2.00 2.66 30.9 33.6
3.86
6.8
1.0
0.9
- 135.3 30.5 13.3 1.13 0.64
4.5
5.1
2.81
3.8
1.1
0.9
8.0
5.8 49.7 25.0 1.68 1.23
4.3
5.5
10.58
9.5
0.9
0.9
4.8
6.1
8.8
9.2 0.29 0.32
3.4
3.6
13.33 10.1
0.9
0.9
4.5
6.0
6.9
8.8 0.12 0.16
1.8
1.8
14.75 11.1
1.0
0.9 n.m.
3.6 36.9 30.8 2.00 2.66 30.9 33.6
8.48 12.2
0.8
0.9
5.9
4.1
8.9
4.3 0.46 0.32
5.2
4.4
(4.61) (7.2)
0.8
0.9
- (17.1) (12.4) (2.56) (1.65) 15.0 13.3
8.44
7.2
0.9
0.9
7.1
8.3 11.2 12.4 5.69 6.66 50.7 53.9
(6.63)
4.3
1.2
1.0
- (18.4) 14.5 (0.70) 0.69
3.8
4.8
9.69
8.8
0.9
0.9
3.1
3.4 10.5 11.1 6.50 7.15 61.9 67.1
11.56 10.1
1.0
1.0
3.0
3.5 10.1 10.7 0.90 1.03 10.0 10.8
15.32
8.0
1.2
1.0
3.7
7.6 12.7 0.79 1.51 10.4 11.9
10.16 125.3
1.0
1.0
- 16.6
0.9 0.37 0.03
3.7
3.7
13.33 (5,200.0)
1.1
1.0
8.1 (0.2) 0.39 (0.00)
4.8
5.1
12.25
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.1
5.4
9.7 12.4 0.12 0.17
1.3
1.4
7.85
6.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
5.7 11.4 10.4 2.00 2.27 14.4 15.0
%
EPS gr
04/03E
(500.0)
(90.4)
15.8
14.9
(30.8)
94.7
(47.6)
10.0
54.4
393.3
10.4
20.6
12.5
(117.3)
33.0
(43.4)
(27.0)
10.9
31.7
33.0
(30.4)
(35.5)
17.0
(252.9)
10.0
14.4
91.1
(91.9)
(100.3)
41.7
13.5
31
Àÿâπ∑’Ë¡’Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈¡“°«à“ 5.0%
(Bt)
Agri/Food
Tele
Secu
ConMat
Mai
Secu
Fin
Secu
Fin
Hotel
Prop
Fin
Fin
Trans
Prop
Mai
Enter
Agri/Food
Elec
ConMat
Trans
Prop
Secu
Deco&Hou
Secu
Secu
Auto
Fin
Agri/Food
Prop
Auto
Secu
Agri/Food
Elec
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Text
Agri/Food
Elec
Elec
Others
Pak
GFPT
JAS
FNS
SINGHA
IRCP
AST
THANI
CNS
NFS
LRH
SPALI
TISCO
NVL
RCL
SAMCO
PD
GRAMMY
SSF
SINGER
DCC
PSL
LPN
ASL
MODERN
ASSET
KGI
YUASA
KK
S&P
QH
TRU
SSEC
TUF
CCET
UVAN
CM
UPOIC
PAF
LST
DELTA
CEI
PRANDA
TFI
Recomm
SELL
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
6-Feb
20.00
9.90
52.00
19.20
14.60
88.50
1.47
81.00
15.70
50.50
4.72
28.50
1.60
20.00
3.10
17.00
19.40
2.86
68.50
21.90
44.25
45.50
11.10
37.25
94.50
5.00
30.00
45.75
25.75
7.00
18.30
24.70
28.50
35.75
25.00
48.00
45.00
5.90
24.20
24.60
17.00
7.05
0.99
target return
18.00 (10.0)
7.00 (29.3)
62.00 19.2
28.00 45.8
23.00 57.5
132.00 49.2
2.00 36.1
97.00 19.8
22.00 40.1
52.00
3.0
6.90 46.2
40.00 40.4
2.00 25.0
29.00 45.0
3.70 19.4
21.00 23.5
22.00 13.4
3.30 15.4
65.00 (5.1)
30.00 37.0
69.00 55.9
67.00 47.3
11.60
4.5
45.00 20.8
142.00 50.3
6.80 36.0
40.00 33.3
55.00 20.2
34.50 34.0
8.20 17.1
22.00 20.2
27.00
9.3
38.50 35.1
43.00 20.3
35.00 40.0
60.00 25.0
54.00 20.0
9.00 52.5
35.00 44.6
37.00 50.4
24.00 41.2
9.00 27.7
1.00
1.0
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
5.24 10.0
0.7
0.7
9.5
5.0 13.2
6.7 3.82 2.00 28.9 29.3
0.67
7.0
0.3
0.3
5.1 45.7
4.2 14.70 1.41 32.2 33.6
8.75
5.9
2.3
1.7
3.4
5.1 24.6 30.0 5.94 8.80 22.5 30.5
11.64 10.3
1.3
1.1
2.0
5.2 10.9 10.4 1.65 1.87 15.2 18.0
13.90
9.4
4.4
3.6
3.4
5.3 31.8 38.2 1.05 1.56
3.3
4.1
14.73
9.3
4.3
3.7
6.7
5.4 33.2 42.7 6.01 9.52 20.5 24.1
12.25
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.1
5.4
9.7 12.4 0.12 0.17
1.3
1.4
47.37
8.9
1.6
1.4
2.1
5.6
3.5 17.1 1.71 9.11 49.8 57.1
7.85
6.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
5.7 11.4 10.4 2.00 2.27 14.4 15.0
13.47
8.7
0.7
0.7
4.1
5.7
4.9
7.3 3.75 5.79 69.8 72.7
2.81
3.8
1.1
0.9
8.0
5.8 49.7 25.0 1.68 1.23
4.3
5.5
10.71
8.4
2.0
1.7
2.8
5.9 21.4 21.7 2.66 3.38 14.4 16.8
13.33 10.1
0.9
0.9
4.5
6.0
6.9
8.8 0.12 0.16
1.8
1.8
21.51 10.8
1.9
1.7
5.3
6.0 14.3 16.7 0.93 1.86 10.6 12.0
10.58
9.5
0.9
0.9
4.8
6.1
8.8
9.2 0.29 0.32
3.4
3.6
10.00
8.1
4.1
3.1
5.0
6.2 41.0 38.9 1.70 2.10
4.1
5.4
17.02 15.8
2.5
2.3
5.2
6.2 14.3 15.2 1.14 1.23
7.9
8.4
7.53
6.5
0.6
0.5
5.2
6.3
7.6
8.2 0.38 0.44
5.1
5.3
8.75
8.7
0.8
0.8
6.4
6.4
8.9
8.9 7.83 7.83 87.5 87.5
17.66 10.7
5.6
4.4
3.0
6.5 31.8 40.5 1.24 2.04
3.9
5.0
14.75
7.6 11.6
4.6
1.1
6.6 62.2 59.9 3.00 5.80
3.8
9.7
9.44
7.6
2.7
2.2
5.3
6.6 32.3 32.1 4.82 6.01 16.9 20.5
37.00
7.5
0.7
0.7
1.4
6.7
6.9 17.2 0.30 1.48 15.1 15.8
16.27 13.3
1.5
1.5
6.0
6.7
9.2 11.0 2.29 2.81 24.9 25.5
12.21
7.4
5.1
3.8
8.1
6.7 50.5 58.6 7.74 12.71 18.6 24.9
10.64
7.4
2.4
2.0
4.8
6.8 15.3 29.8 0.47 0.68
2.1
2.5
7.87
7.2
0.7
0.7
6.3
7.0
9.2
9.8 3.81 4.19 41.5 43.8
8.33
6.0
1.3
1.2
6.0
7.2 18.2 21.0 5.49 7.67 34.1 39.0
9.87
7.4 18.4 21.5
5.4
7.4
0.2
0.2 2.61 3.50
1.4
1.2
10.94
9.6
1.5
1.3
4.9
7.4 20.0 19.0 0.64 0.73
4.7
5.4
31.02
9.9
3.9
2.8
2.4
7.5
9.4 23.2 0.59 1.85
4.7
6.5
13.95
6.6
2.3
1.8
3.6
7.5 23.6 39.4 1.77 3.72 10.5 13.4
10.71
8.9
2.2
2.0
6.5
7.6 20.2 22.5 2.66 3.20 13.2 14.6
8.09
7.8
1.6
1.5
8.4
7.7 20.2 19.2 4.42 4.56 22.1 23.9
5.52
6.4
2.9
2.4
9.1
7.8 48.8 37.1 4.53 3.91
8.6
1.1
8.44
7.2
0.9
0.9
7.1
8.3 11.2 12.4 5.69 6.66 50.7 53.9
6.53
6.6
1.5
1.3
8.6
8.4 30.6 26.5 6.89 6.78 31.0 35.1
4.54
6.6
0.6
0.6
8.5
8.5 14.3
9.6 1.30 0.90
9.9 10.1
9.10
8.0
1.6
1.5
7.7
8.7 17.7 18.9 2.66 3.02 15.1 16.0
19.07
8.8
2.1
2.0
3.7
9.1 10.8 23.3 1.29 2.79 11.9 12.6
8.85
8.5
1.6
1.9
7.4
9.4 21.6 21.9 1.92 2.00 10.4
9.1
5.38
4.5
0.9
0.8
9.9
9.9 18.1 18.7 1.31 1.58
7.7
9.2
33.00 19.8
1.7
1.5 11.1 17.2
5.0
7.4 0.03 0.05
0.6
0.7
%
EPS gr
04/03E
(47.6)
(90.4)
48.1
13.3
48.6
58.4
41.7
432.7
13.5
54.4
(27.0)
27.1
31.7
100.0
10.9
23.5
7.9
15.8
64.5
93.3
24.7
393.3
22.7
64.2
44.7
10.0
39.7
34.1
14.1
213.6
110.2
20.3
3.2
(13.7)
17.0
(1.6)
(30.8)
25.4
116.3
4.2
20.6
66.7
Syrus
32
R ecommendation Changes
‡ª≈’Ë¬π§”·π–π”
Àÿâπ
CFRESH
CPF
GFPT
SSF
TVO
TRU
BT
SCB
SCIB
TMB
CCET
KCE
ITV
TRAF
AJ
SAMCO
STECON
ASL
KEST
US
UCOM
PSL
§”·π–π”„À¡à
HOLD
SELL
SELL
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
BUY
BUY
Source : Syrus Research
Syrus
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬„À¡à √“§“ªî¥ 6-Feb 04
3.50
3.26
3.20
3.90
18.00
20.00
3.30
2.86
12.00
14.10
22.00
18.30
7.80
6.65
59.00
47.50
33.50
25.25
4.56
43.00
35.75
16.00
14.00
26.00
21.70
4.60
3.10
6.30
6.30
3.70
3.10
24.00
17.80
11.60
11.10
40.00
57.00
16.50
16.00
62.00
42.00
69.00
44.25
§”·π–π”‡°à“
SELL
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
SELL
SELL
HOLD
SELL
HOLD
BUY
BUY
SELL
SELL
SELL
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬‡°à“ √“§“ªî¥ 8-Dec 03
3.40
4.50
6.00
4.56
34.00
27.50
3.50
3.40
21.50
13.50
17.00
16.00
7.40
7.50
43.00
40.50
23.00
21.00
5.50
5.55
37.00
34.25
14.00
13.30
16.80
17.80
2.00
3.66
8.00
7.30
37.20
44.00
18.80
18.70
20.00
14.40
26.00
14.30
14.50
16.40
27.50
30.50
30.00
33.00
33
S YRUS Coverage
√ÿª§”·π–π”√“¬Àÿâπ (Companies recommendation)
(Bt)
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Agri/Food
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Auto
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Bank
Chem
Chem
Commerc
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
ConMat
Deco&Hou
Deco&Hou
Elec
Elec
CFRESH
CM
CPF
GFPT
HFT
LST
S&P
SSF
TIPCO
TUF
TVO
UPOIC
UVAN
AH
BAT-3K
HFT
IRC
SPSU
STANLY
TRU
YUASA
BAY
BBL
BOA
BT
DTDB
IFCT
KBANK
KTB
SCB
SCIB
TMB
TCB
UV
BIGC
CCP
DCC
MS
Q-CON
SINGHA
SSI
TGP
TPIPL
TYCN
VNG
MODERN
SITHAI
CCET
CEI
Recomm
HOLD
BUY
SELL
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
6-Feb
3.26
48.00
3.90
20.00
28.00
24.20
25.75
2.86
6.10
28.50
14.10
45.00
25.00
153.00
63.00
29.50
151.00
12.00
372.00
18.30
30.00
12.10
101.00
4.52
6.65
3.82
5.25
55.00
11.20
47.50
26.00
4.56
21.10
3.50
18.20
33.00
21.90
2.56
18.10
19.20
33.25
4.98
37.50
16.40
13.10
37.25
8.25
35.75
17.00
target
3.50
60.00
3.20
18.00
43.50
35.00
34.50
3.30
8.50
38.50
12.00
54.00
35.00
140.00
80.00
43.50
185.00
14.00
437.00
22.00
40.00
17.00
125.00
5.50
7.80
71.00
15.00
59.00
33.00
33.00
6.00
20.00
48.00
30.00
3.70
19.00
28.00
43.00
6.00
52.00
22.00
17.00
45.00
11.00
43.00
24.00
return
7.4
25.0
(17.9)
(10.0)
55.4
44.6
34.0
15.4
39.3
35.1
(14.9)
20.0
40.0
(8.5)
27.0
47.5
22.5
16.7
17.5
20.2
33.3
40.5
23.8
21.7
17.3
29.1
33.9
24.2
26.9
56.4
71.4
9.9
45.5
37.0
44.5
5.0
45.8
29.3
20.5
38.7
34.1
29.8
20.8
33.3
20.3
41.2
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
(46.57) 11.6
0.2
0.2
4.6 (2.4)
8.4 (0.07) 0.28 17.9 15.3
8.44
7.2
0.9
0.9
7.1
8.3 11.2 12.4 5.69 6.66 50.7 53.9
8.48 12.2
0.8
0.9
5.9
4.1
8.9
4.3 0.46 0.32
5.2
4.4
5.24 10.0
0.7
0.7
9.5
5.0 13.2
6.7 3.82 2.00 28.9 29.3
14.00 10.5
0.9
0.8
6.9
8.2 2.00 2.66 30.9 33.6
9.10
8.0
1.6
1.5
7.7
8.7 17.7 18.9 2.66 3.02 15.1 16.0
9.87
7.4
1.5
1.2
5.4
7.4
0.2
0.2 2.61 3.50
1.4
1.2
7.53
6.5
0.6
0.5
5.2
6.3
7.6
8.2 0.38 0.44
5.1
5.3
8.93
8.7
3.0
2.4
0.2
3.5 33.7 28.4 0.68 0.70
2.0
2.5
10.71
8.9
2.2
2.0
6.5
7.6 20.2 22.5 2.66 3.20 13.2 14.6
12.8 17.7
4.0
3.9
3.6
2.8 31.1 18.6 1.10 0.80
3.5
3.6
6.53
6.6
1.5
1.3
8.6
8.4 30.6 26.5 6.89 6.78 31.0 35.1
5.52
6.4
2.9
2.4
9.1
7.8 48.8 37.1 4.53 3.91
8.6
1.1
27.52 18.3
9.4
6.4
0.4
0.5 37.1 41.5 5.56 8.34 16.2 24.0
9.69
8.8
0.9
0.9
3.1
3.4 10.5 11.1 6.50 7.15 61.9 67.1
14.75 11.1
1.0
0.9 n.m.
3.6 36.9 30.8 2.00 2.66 30.9 33.6
14.77 12.9 30.9 30.9
2.1
0.2 25.4 23.9 10.22 1.17 40.3
4.9
10.71
9.5
0.8
0.8
3.6
4.0
9.6
8.7 1.12 1.26 13.9 15.2
16.65 13.4
4.8
3.8
2.1
2.6 33.0 32.0 22.34 27.82 76.9 96.9
31.02
9.9
3.9
2.8
2.4
7.5
9.4 23.2 0.59 1.85
4.7
6.5
7.87
7.2
0.7
0.7
6.3
7.0
9.2
9.8 3.81 4.19 41.5 43.8
15.32
8.0
1.2
1.0
3.7
7.6 12.7 0.79 1.51 10.4 11.9
13.05 10.1
2.2
1.6
3.0 17.2 22.3 7.74 9.99 45.0 63.8
12.56
9.2
1.7
1.4
- 13.1 15.2 0.36 0.49
2.7
3.2
(5.24) 30.2
0.9
0.8
- (17.1)
2.7 (1.27) 0.22
7.4
8.1
(3.24)
6.7
2.2
1.7
- (69.5) 25.1 (1.18) 0.57
1.7
2.3
13.82
7.1
0.7
0.6
4.8
8.6 0.38 0.74
7.9
8.6
8.73
9.9
2.7
2.3
3.0 30.6 23.2 6.30 5.55 20.6 23.8
14.36
8.6
1.7
1.5
4.2
4.5 11.6 17.2 0.78 1.30
6.7
7.5
12.03
9.4
2.1
1.8
2.9
3.8 17.8 19.1 3.95 5.06 22.2 26.4
15.20
9.1
1.7
1.5
2.6
4.4 11.1 16.3 1.71 2.87 15.4 17.6
(3.38)
8.1
2.1
1.6
- (61.0) 20.2 (1.35) 0.56
2.2
2.8
11.59
8.1
1.5
1.3
2.8
2.8 13.0 16.4 1.82 2.61 14.2 16.3
13.46
7.6
1.4
1.1
1.1
2.0 14.4 20.8 0.26 0.46
2.5
3.1
10.40
9.6
3.1
3.3
2.9
3.1 11.9 11.8 1.75 1.90
5.8
5.5
13.92
9.7
2.8
2.3
2.9
4.1 20.1 23.8 2.37 3.39 11.8 14.3
17.66 10.7
5.6
4.4
3.0
6.5 31.8 40.5 1.24 2.04
3.9
5.0
(85.33) 36.6
1.3
1.2
- (2.2)
4.1 (0.03) 0.07
2.0
2.1
25.14 21.0
8.7
4.6
1.2
1.4 34.6 22.1 0.72 0.86
2.1
3.9
11.64 10.3
1.3
1.1
2.0
5.2 10.9 10.4 1.65 1.87 15.2 18.0
6.08 11.8
2.8
2.2
3.0 29.8 19.0 5.47 2.82 12.0 14.8
9.76 13.8
2.0
1.7
- 20.5 12.2 0.51 0.36
2.5
2.9
4.15
3.8
0.9
0.7
- 21.6 19.5 9.04 9.98 43.8 51.3
14.14 11.2
1.3
1.2
7.3
3.5
8.9 10.5 1.16 1.46 13.0 13.9
16.38 12.1
4.4
3.7
3.8
4.2 26.6 30.5 0.80 1.08
3.0
3.6
16.27 13.3
1.5
1.5
6.0
6.7
9.2 11.0 2.29 2.81 24.9 25.5
12.31 10.7
0.6
0.6
3.6
4.6
4.8
5.3 0.67 0.77 14.0 14.4
8.09
7.8
1.6
1.5
8.4
7.7 20.2 19.2 4.42 4.56 22.1 23.9
8.85
8.5
1.6
1.9
7.4
9.4 21.6 21.9 1.92 2.00 10.4
9.1
%
EPS gr
04/03E
(500.0)
17.0
(30.4)
(47.6)
33.0
25.4
34.1
15.8
2.9
20.3
19.2
(1.6)
(13.7)
50.0
10.0
33.0
(88.6)
12.5
24.5
213.6
10.0
91.1
29.1
36.1
(117.3)
(148.3)
94.7
(11.9)
66.7
28.1
67.8
(141.5)
43.4
76.9
8.6
43.0
64.5
(333.3)
19.4
13.3
(48.4)
(29.4)
10.4
25.9
35.0
22.7
14.9
3.2
4.2
Syrus
34
√ÿª§”·π–π”√“¬Àÿâπ (Companies recommendation) (µàÕ)
(Bt)
Elec
Elec
Elec
Elec
Elec
Elec
Elec
Elec
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Energy
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Enter
Fin
Fin
Fin
Fin
Fin
Fin
Fin
Hospital
Hospital
Hotel
Hotel
Mai
Mai
Mai
Mai
Mai
Mai
Other
Others
Others
Pak
Pak
Pak
Prop
Prop
CTW
DELTA
DISTAR
EIC
HANA
IT
KCE
KRP
BANPU
EGCOMP
RATCH
RPC
SCG
BEC
EGV
GMMM
GRAMMY
ITV
MAJOR
MEDIAS
RS
TRAF
UBC
KK
KTC
NFS
NVL
SPL
THANI
TISCO
BH
SKR
LRH
RGR
IRCP
MACO
MATCH
PD
STHAI
TEAM
CWT
PATKL
PRANDA
AJ
CSC
TFI
AMATA
AP
Recomm
BUY
BUY
SELL
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
6-Feb
10.40
24.60
50.00
16.20
137.00
9.00
14.00
4.64
133.00
78.00
38.25
33.75
4.20
20.80
9.85
34.00
19.40
21.70
15.50
31.50
25.75
3.10
23.50
45.75
32.50
15.70
1.60
36.50
1.47
28.50
59.50
11.00
50.50
15.50
14.60
13.00
14.20
17.00
5.20
3.38
30.50
5.05
7.05
6.30
27.75
0.99
13.50
5.60
Syrus
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
EPS
BV/share
target return 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E
14.40 38.5 11.56 10.1
1.0
1.0
3.0
3.5 10.1 10.7 0.90 1.03 10.0
37.00 50.4 19.07
8.8
2.1
2.0
3.7
9.1 10.8 23.3 1.29 2.79 11.9
47.50 (5.0)
na 12.7
2.7
2.2
- 110.5 17.3
- 3.94 18.8
17.00
4.9 18.00 14.7
2.1
2.0
3.7 15.1 13.9 0.90 1.10
7.7
155.00 13.1 14.53 13.5
2.6
2.0
3.6
3.6 17.8 14.9 9.43 10.16 53.0
11.20 24.4 26.47 16.1
3.9
2.9
2.2
3.1 17.6 31.4 0.34 0.56
2.3
16.00 14.3 15.22 13.5
2.0
1.8
2.1 13.4 13.8 0.92 1.04
6.9
7.00 50.8 (6.63)
6.7
1.2
1.0
- (18.4) 20.7 (0.70) 0.69
3.8
177.00 33.1 20.68 4.74
2.4
1.6
2.3
2.3 11.6 34.9 6.43 28.05 55.9
96.00 23.1 6.96 12.52
1.6
1.5
3.2
3.2 23.7 12.3 11.20 6.23 48.4
53.00 38.6 9.78 8.28
2.2
1.9
3.9
4.8 22.7 22.9 3.91 4.62 17.2
36.00
6.7 13.34
9.5
3.2
2.4
0.7
1.5 24.1 25.6 2.53 3.54 10.5
6.30 50.0 0.85
8.7
0.3
1.9 35.2
3.3 29.9 21.5 4.93 0.48 16.5
26.70 28.4 19.62 18.7
5.5
5.3
4.8
4.8 28.0 28.5 1.06 1.11
3.8
8.90 (9.6) 65.67 29.8
3.8
4.5
1.0
1.5
7.5
7.6 0.15 0.33
2.6
42.60 25.3 15.89 13.5
3.6
3.3
3.1
4.0 23.9 25.2 2.14 2.51
9.5
22.00 13.4 17.02 15.8
2.5
2.3
5.2
6.2 14.3 15.2 1.14 1.23
7.9
26.00 19.8 (37.41) 52.9
7.2
6.3
- (14.3) 11.9 (0.58) 0.41
3.0
20.60 32.9 20.95 16.5
4.7
4.2
3.2
3.9 25.6 28.0 0.74 0.94
3.3
41.00 30.2 23.68 17.6
7.9
4.7
2.9 26.9 26.8 1.33 1.79
4.0
33.00 28.2 19.07 13.4
2.3
2.1
2.6
3.7 12.2 15.9 1.35 1.92 11.1
4.60 48.4 (7.38) 13.5
2.4
2.2
4.8 (31.0) 16.1 (0.42) 0.23
1.3
13.00 (44.7)(1,175.00) 106.8 13.7 12.1
- (1.2) 11.3 (0.02) 0.22
1.7
55.00 20.2 8.33
6.0
1.3
1.2
6.0
7.2 18.2 21.0 5.49 7.67 34.1
45.00 38.5 20.44 13.5
1.7
1.5
1.5
2.2 12.3 11.7 1.59 2.40 19.6
22.00 40.1 7.85
6.9
1.1
1.0
5.1
5.7 11.4 10.4 2.00 2.27 14.4
2.00 25.0 13.33 10.1
0.9
0.9
4.5
6.0
6.9
8.8 0.12 0.16
1.8
47.00 28.8 9.10 10.2
1.4
1.2
4.9
4.4 16.7 14.5 4.01 3.59 25.5
2.00 36.1 12.25
8.6
1.1
1.0
4.1
5.4
9.7 12.4 0.12 0.17
1.3
40.00 40.4 10.71
8.4
2.0
1.7
2.8
5.9 21.4 21.7 2.66 3.38 14.4
80.00 34.5 14.99 13.0
7.5
8.0
0.7
0.4 3.97 4.57
7.9
21.00 90.9 9.57
8.9
2.8
2.2
- 43.2 27.7 1.15 1.24
3.9
52.00
3.0 13.47
8.7
0.7
0.7
4.1
5.7
4.9
7.3 3.75 5.79 69.8
21.00 35.5 19.38 11.7
2.5
2.0
2.6
4.3 13.7 19.4 0.80 1.33
6.2
23.00 57.5 13.90
9.4
4.4
3.6
3.4
5.3 31.8 38.2 1.05 1.56
3.3
22.00 69.2 21.67 11.8
4.3
3.5
1.8
3.4 19.8 29.8 0.60 1.10
3.0
14.90
4.9 28.40 19.2
5.3
4.4
2.1
2.1 18.6 23.0 0.50 0.74
2.7
21.00 23.5 10.00
8.1
4.1
3.1
5.0
6.2 41.0 38.9 1.70 2.10
4.1
3.80 (26.9) (260.00) 37.1
4.7
4.3
- (2.4) 12.1 (0.02) 0.14
1.1
4.00 18.3 10.56
7.5
1.7
1.5
3.8
3.8 18.6 21.5 0.32 0.45
2.0
55.00 80.3 (277.27)
7.8
1.4
1.2
- (0.5) 14.9 (0.11) 3.89 22.3
6.50 28.7 3.52
8.3
1.0
1.5
3.0
3.6 31.1 23.8 1.44 0.61
5.3
9.00 27.7 5.38
4.5
0.9
0.8
9.9
9.9 18.1 18.7 1.31 1.58
7.7
6.30 (0.0) 7.50
7.1
2.4
2.0
8.1
4.0 38.8 31.4 0.84 0.89
2.6
35.00 26.1 7.48
8.9
2.3
1.8
- 35.8 22.7 3.71 3.13 12.2
1.00
1.0 33.00 19.8
1.7
1.5 11.1 17.2
5.0
7.4 0.03 0.05
0.6
16.70 23.7 15.92 13.3
4.3
3.3
2.6
3.0 28.6 28.3 0.85 1.01
3.1
7.90 41.1 11.21 10.5
4.4
3.4
2.5
2.9 49.1 36.6 0.50 0.53
1.3
%
EPS gr
2004E 04/03E
10.8 14.4
12.6 116.3
22.7
na
8.2 22.2
68.1
7.7
3.1 64.7
7.6 13.0
4.8 (198.6)
81.1 336.2
52.2 (44.4)
20.2 18.2
13.8 39.9
2.2 (90.3)
3.9
4.7
2.2 120.0
10.4 17.3
8.4
7.9
3.4 (170.7)
3.7 27.0
6.7 34.6
12.0 42.2
1.4 (154.8)
1.9 (1,200.0)
39.0 39.7
21.5 50.9
15.0 13.5
1.8 31.7
30.1 (10.5)
1.4 41.7
16.8 27.1
7.5 15.1
5.1
7.8
72.7 54.4
7.6 66.3
4.1 48.6
3.7 83.3
3.2 48.0
5.4 23.5
1.2 (800.0)
2.2 40.6
26.2 (3,636.4)
3.3 (57.5)
9.2 20.6
3.1
6.0
15.4 (15.6)
0.7 66.7
4.0 19.6
1.7
7.1
35
√ÿª§”·π–π”√“¬Àÿâπ (Companies recommendation) (µàÕ)
(Bt)
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Prop
Pulp
Rehabco
Rehabco
Retal&Wh
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Secu
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Tele
Text
Trans
Trans
Trans
Trans
Trans
ESTAR
GOLD
HEMRAJ
LALIN
LH
LPN
MK
NOBLE
PF
PLE
QH
SAMCO
SIRI
SPALI
STECON
SYNTEC
TCP
NSM
THL
ROBINS
ASL
ASSET
AST
CNS
FNS
KEST
KGI
SSEC
US
ZMICO
ADVANC
AIT
IEC
INET
JAS
MFEC
MLINK
SAMART
SATTEL
SHIN
SIM
TA
TT&T
UCOM
PAF
BECL
PSL
RCL
THAI
TTA
Recomm
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
BUY
SELL
BUY
SELL
SELL
BUY
BUY
BUY
SELL
HOLD
HOLD
BUY
HOLD
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY
6-Feb
3.76
11.30
1.32
11.20
12.20
45.50
4.36
14.20
13.50
16.40
7.00
3.10
12.10
4.72
17.80
5.25
18.70
2.96
4.60
3.78
11.10
94.50
88.50
81.00
52.00
57.00
5.00
24.70
16.00
12.00
84.50
43.25
11.80
9.00
9.90
8.10
9.95
8.90
36.50
36.75
17.40
8.30
5.20
42.00
5.90
23.10
44.25
20.00
49.50
44.50
target
6.70
15.10
1.50
14.10
14.70
67.00
5.90
20.50
20.00
25.00
8.20
3.70
16.90
6.90
24.00
6.00
23.00
3.90
6.53
6.34
11.60
142.00
132.00
97.00
62.00
42.00
6.80
27.00
16.50
16.00
95.00
65.00
7.00
12.00
7.00
13.00
8.00
6.50
53.00
48.00
20.00
6.50
5.30
62.00
9.00
24.00
69.00
29.00
65.00
59.00
return
78.2
33.6
13.6
25.9
20.5
47.3
35.3
44.4
48.1
52.4
17.1
19.4
39.7
46.2
34.8
14.3
23.0
31.8
42.0
67.7
4.5
50.3
49.2
19.8
19.2
(26.3)
36.0
9.3
3.1
33.3
12.4
50.3
(40.7)
33.3
(29.3)
60.5
(19.6)
(27.0)
45.2
36.1
14.9
(21.7)
1.9
47.6
52.5
3.9
55.9
45.0
31.3
32.6
P/BV (x)
% yield
ROE (%)
2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E 2003E 2004E
10.16 125.3
1.0
1.0
- 16.6
0.9
14.91 11.0
1.3
1.1
4.4
8.8 10.8
42.87 15.4
1.6
1.1
1.9
4.9 44.7
9.9
14.18 11.9
3.7
3.0
2.1
2.5 30.0 28.5
13.65 12.1
3.6
3.2
3.7
4.2 29.7 27.8
9.44
7.6
2.7
2.2
5.3
6.6 32.3 32.1
3.86
6.8
1.0
0.9
5.5
5.7 30.5 13.3
8.28
8.0
2.7
2.2
3.5
3.8 38.0 30.0
9.71
8.2
2.3
2.2
3.6 39.5 43.7
24.85 11.2
4.3
3.3
1.8
4.3 17.6 33.5
10.94
9.6
1.5
1.3
4.9
7.4 20.0 19.0
10.58
9.5
0.9
0.9
4.8
6.1
8.8
9.2
16.52 10.3
2.5
2.0
2.5
4.8 17.7 32.6
2.81
3.8
1.1
0.9
8.0
5.8 49.7 25.0
29.67 16.8
5.7
4.8
2.5
4.2 19.6 28.6
10.29 52.5
8.8
5.2
- 124.6 18.1
5.44 77.9
1.0
1.1
0.5 16.7
1.3
0.09 (24.7)
1.6
1.7
- 138.0 (6.9)
(57.50)
6.8
2.9
2.1
- (5.4) 36.1
7.13
6.5
2.5
2.1
- 36.4 32.1
37.00
7.5
0.7
0.7
1.4
6.7
6.9 17.2
12.21
7.4
5.1
3.8
8.1
6.7 50.5 58.6
14.73
9.3
4.3
3.7
6.7
5.4 33.2 42.7
47.37
8.9
1.6
1.4
2.1
5.6
3.5 17.1
8.75
5.9
2.3
1.7
3.4
5.1 24.6 30.0
34.76 16.2
8.3
5.9
1.4
3.1 28.2 38.9
10.64
7.4
2.4
2.0
4.8
6.8 15.3 29.8
13.95
6.6
2.3
1.8
3.6
7.5 23.6 39.4
7.96
7.6
2.0
1.6
- 33.1 28.3
11.72 10.2
4.0
2.5
4.3
4.9 41.8 34.6
13.16 13.3
4.2
3.8
4.7
4.6 32.3 28.5
16.51 11.9
3.3
2.8
1.2
3.2 19.9 23.6
(4.61) (7.2)
0.8
0.9
- (17.1) (12.4)
23.08 16.7
3.1
2.9
2.6
3.7 13.4 17.4
0.67
7.0
0.3
0.3
5.1 45.7
4.2
17.61 12.7
3.1
2.7
2.5
4.0 17.5 21.6
(19.13) 28.4
2.3
2.4
1.8 (20.8) 13.1
3.99 13.7
6.4
4.4
- 161.5 32.0
15.67 25.9
2.0
1.9
1.4
1.5 14.2
7.4
11.10 12.3
9.9 11.5
3.1
3.3 29.5 22.5
22.60 17.2
4.1
3.6
2.3 46.3 20.9
(8.22) (27.7)
9.5 11.5
- (62.1) (22.9)
13.33 (5,200.0)
1.1
1.0
8.1 (0.2)
13.82 12.2
2.0
1.7
- 14.3 13.9
4.54
6.6
0.6
0.6
8.5
8.5 14.3
9.6
22.65 12.9
1.3
1.2
2.6
4.3
5.6
9.5
14.75
7.6 11.6
4.6
1.1
6.6 62.2 59.9
21.51 10.8
1.9
1.7
5.3
6.0 14.3 16.7
5.56
5.8
2.1
1.6
3.0
4.3 36.9 30.8
24.32
8.9 14.4
4.6
1.1
4.5 59.3 51.1
EPS
BV/share
2003E
0.37
0.76
0.03
0.79
0.89
4.82
1.13
1.72
1.39
0.66
0.64
0.29
0.73
1.68
0.60
0.51
3.44
31.40
(0.08)
0.53
0.30
7.74
6.01
1.71
5.94
1.64
0.47
1.77
2.01
1.02
6.42
2.62
(2.56)
0.39
14.70
0.46
(0.52)
2.23
2.33
3.31
0.77
(1.01)
0.39
3.04
1.30
1.02
3.00
0.93
8.90
1.83
2004E 2003E 2004E
0.03
3.7
3.7
1.03
9.0 10.0
0.09
0.8
1.2
0.94
3.0
3.7
1.01
3.4
3.9
6.01 16.9 20.5
0.64
4.5
5.1
1.78
5.3
6.6
1.65
6.0
6.2
1.47
3.8
5.0
0.73
4.7
5.4
0.32
3.4
3.6
1.17
4.8
6.1
1.23
4.3
5.5
1.06
3.1
3.7
0.10
0.6
0.1
0.24 18.2 17.8
(0.12)
1.8
1.7
0.68
1.6
2.2
0.58
1.5
1.8
1.48 15.1 15.8
12.71 18.6 24.9
9.52 20.5 24.1
9.11 49.8 57.1
8.80 22.5 30.5
3.51
6.9
9.6
0.68
2.1
2.5
3.72 10.5 13.4
2.10
7.9 10.0
1.18
3.0
4.7
6.36 19.9 22.4
3.63 13.2 15.4
(1.65) 15.0 13.3
0.54
2.9
3.1
1.41 32.2 33.6
0.64
2.6
3.0
0.35
4.4
4.1
0.65
1.4
2.0
1.41 18.0 18.8
2.98
3.7
3.2
1.01
4.2
4.8
(0.30)
0.9
0.7
(0.00)
4.8
5.1
3.44 21.3 24.7
0.90
9.9 10.1
1.79 18.3 18.9
5.80
3.8
9.7
1.86 10.6 12.0
8.48 23.2 31.9
4.98
3.1
9.7
%
EPS gr
04/03E
(91.9)
35.7
178.6
19.0
12.5
24.7
(43.4)
4.0
18.7
122.7
14.1
10.9
59.7
(27.0)
76.7
(80.4)
(93.0)
(100.4)
(950.0)
9.4
393.3
64.2
58.4
432.7
48.1
114.0
44.7
110.2
4.5
15.2
(0.9)
38.5
(35.5)
38.5
(90.4)
39.1
(167.3)
(70.9)
(39.5)
(10.0)
31.2
(70.3)
(100.3)
13.2
(30.8)
75.5
93.3
100.0
(4.7)
172.1
Syrus
36
W arrant Table
¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈„∫ ”§—≠· ¥ß ‘∑∏‘ Warrant
(Bt)
KGI-W4
SCB-W
MFG-W
SICCO-W2
SVI-W1
TTA-W2
SUN-W1
SCIB-C1
RGR-W2
SPL-W2
TSI-W1
AJ-W1
DTDB-W1
DELTA-W
CPF-W2
HMPRO-W1
LPN-W1
US-W1
MSC-W1
TRAF-W1
SF-W1
SSEC-W1
ASL-W4
AFC-W
ASIMAR-W
CTW-W1
TVO-W1
PLE-W1
SPALI-W2
BROOK-W1
APURE-W1
SICCO-W3
TT&T-W1
FNS-W1
QH-W3
THRE-W1
SE-ED-W1
AP-W1
S&P-W1
PRANDA-W
SHIN-W1
STECON-W
TICON-W1
ASIAN-W1
Warrant
Price
0.85
11.30
0.22
2.10
5.50
42.25
0.01
5.55
26.25
5.60
0.11
4.58
0.42
372.00
2.70
1.40
30.00
10.90
14.10
2.12
13.80
9.30
5.00
4.00
1.22
5.05
190.00
12.00
3.48
2.16
0.97
3.38
2.16
27.00
2.50
3.08
4.26
4.24
8.00
4.04
18.80
15.70
31.00
6.35
Stock
Price
5.05
47.75
58.00
7.35
16.40
44.75
18.00
25.25
15.10
36.75
8.00
6.30
3.86
25.00
3.92
3.98
45.75
16.10
3.46
3.14
42.32
24.90
11.20
13.40
2.24
10.40
14.20
16.50
4.74
2.80
1.68
7.35
5.25
52.00
7.05
4.38
6.10
5.60
25.75
7.10
37.00
18.00
9.25
13.30
Last ExerciseExercise Ratio Exercise Listed Warrant
Exercise Period
date
(1 W : CS)
Price
(Units)
30-Apr-2004
0.27806
1.798 422,578,154 Last business day of each month
22-Jun-2004
1.00000
38.700 114,801,848 22nd of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
9-Sept-2004
1.00000
110.000 7,465,884 9th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
15-Sept-2004
1.00000
29-Sept-2004
1.00000
12.500 47,039,330 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
30-Sept-2004
1.00000
30-Oct-2004
1.00000
25-Nov-2004
1.00000
20.850 732,134,000 Every business day
7-Dec-2004
2.45013
17-Dec-2004
1.00000
25-Apr-2005
1.00000
10.000 7,797,617 25 of Jul, Oct, Jan and Apr
15-Jun-2005
1.00000
1.000 59,968,960 15-Jun-05
25-Jun-2005
1.00000
10.000 1,349,999,931 30th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
30-Jun-2005
12.20585
1.000
1,188 1st of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
21-Jul-2005
5.00000
4.000 383,874,772 First business day of Apr, Jul, Oct and Jan (First Exercise date: Jan 2, 2003)
25-Jul-2005
1.00000
3.000 184,499,931 Last business day of Feb, May, Aug and Nov (First Exercise date: Aug 30, 2003)
3-Oct-2005
1.00000
14.000 27,158,423 25 of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct (First Exercise date: Oct 25, 2003)
3-Oct-2005
1.00000
5.000 53,883,086 Last business day of Feb, May, Aug and Nov (First Exercise date: Nov 29, 2003)
13-Nov-2005
10.00000
1.000 2,284,715 30 of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Jun 30, 2003)
28-Nov-2005
1.00000
1.000 82,937,500 Last business day of Jun and Dec (First Exercise date: Jun 30, 2003)
12-Dec-2005
2.62683
1.000 58,877,326 30 of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Jun 30, 2003)
15-Dec-2005
1.00735
19.854 31,500,000 15 of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 15, 2003)
16-Jan-2006
1.00000
10.000 100,397,771 16-Jan-06
30-Jan-2006
1.00000
10.000 6,676,498 30th of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct
15-Mar-2006
1.00000
1.000 59,160,333 15 Of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Apr 23, 2003)
19-Apr-2006
1.00000
30-Apr-2006
10.00000
7.000
475,590 Last business day of Apr, Oct
11-Jun-2006
1.00000
4.000 90,601,348 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (First Exercise date: Sep 30, 2003)
19-Jun-2006
1.00000
1.000 570,167,000 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (First Exercise date: Sep 30, 2003)
17-Jul-2006
1.00000
31-Jul-2006
1.01680
26-Sept-2006
1.00000
29-Sept-2006
1.00000
16-Oct-2006
1.00000
25.000 110,000,000 Last business day of each month (First Exercise date: Jan 30, 2003)
19-Oct-2006
1.00793
5.000 239,935,628 19th bof Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct
6-Nov-2006
1.00000
1.000 23,183,250 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (First Exercise date: May 7, 2003)
15-Dec-2006
1.00000
1.650 64,282,750 Every 15th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (First Exercise Date: Dec 15,2003)
12-Mar-2007
1.00000
1.000 32,815,780 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec of each year
5-Apr-2007
1.00000
18.000 33,222,601 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First exercise date: Jun 30, 2003)
2-May-2007
1.00000
21-May-2007
1.00000
20.500 200,000,000 Last business day of Feb, May, Aug and Nov
30-May-2007
1.00000
1.000 8,362,650 30th of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (First Exercise Date: May 30, 2003)
3-Jun-2007
5.00000
1.000 5,316,825 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec
8-Jul-2007
1.00800
4.959 96,717,082 Last business day of Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct
Syrus
37
¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈„∫ ”§—≠· ¥ß ‘∑∏‘ Warrant (µàÕ)
(Bt)
SSPORT-W
NMG-W2
SMG-W1
RAIMON-W
VNG-W1
IT-W1
Warrant
Price
6.05
4.20
27.50
0.47
11.80
7.05
Stock
Price
7.80
16.20
39.50
1.16
13.20
9.00
MINOR-W1
CAPE-W
LH-W2
BAY-W1
13.60
0.86
9.60
4.66
13.70
2.06
12.20
12.10
APC-W1
QH-W4
KK-W2
THANI-W2
1.40
2.88
37.50
0.59
2.50
7.05
45.75
1.50
THANI-W3
0.60
1.50
KK-W3
JAS-W
VIBHA-W1
HEMRAJ-W
UV-W1
CPICO-W1
AITCO-W1
APC-W2
NEP-W1
PICNI-W1
KK-W4
NSM-W1
ESTAR-W1
ESTAR-W2
PF-W2
MS-W1
MS-W2
TFD-W1
33.50
0.97
8.30
0.98
1.66
0.30
2.60
1.42
3.72
10.90
22.40
1.28
2.34
1.18
11.00
1.01
0.35
2.84
45.75
1.54
24.40
1.33
3.50
2.00
10.50
2.50
8.40
16.90
45.75
2.98
3.76
3.76
13.60
2.60
2.60
6.30
Last ExerciseExercise Ratio Exercise Listed Warrant
Exercise Period
date
(1 W : CS)
Price
(Units)
17-Aug-2007
1.00000
1.000 61,302,700 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 30, 2003)
22-Aug-2007
1.00000
14.000 39,421,275 15 of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec (Fist Exercise date: Jun 16, 2003)
14-Nov-2007
1.00000
5.000 29,719,008 1 of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct (First Exercise date: Jul 1, 2005)
17-Dec-2007
1.03870
0.963 1,499,206,860 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Mar 31, 2003)
28-Dec-2007
1.00000
1.000 8,403,682 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Mar 31, 2003)
19-May-2008
1.01312
0.987 109,300,000 Last business day of May and Nov in the 4th and 5th year of maturity (First
Exercise date: May 31, 2006)
7-Jun-2008
2.00000
30-Jun-2008
1.07400
10.000 63,220,000 30st of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
2-Sept-2008
1.03927
2.502 2,338,691,896 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep, Dec
3-Sept-2008
1.00000
12.000 1,239,067,755 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Last
business date of Mar 2004)
5-Sept-2008
1.00000
1.000 62,862,954 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First exercise date: Sep 30, 2003)
11-Sept-2008
1.00000
6.000 233,847,028 19 of Jan, Apr, Jul, Oct (First Exercise date: Oct 19, 2003)
30-Sept-2008
1.29217
20-Oct-2008
1.00000
1.000 59,997,200 1 Yr and 3 months after Oct 20,2003 (If 15 Days average price of THANI
more than 20 Bt.)
20-Oct-2008
1.00000
1.000 39,997,665 2 Yr and 3 months after Oct 20,2003 (If 15 Days average price of THANI
more than 20 Bt.)
30-Mar-2009
1.13362
15-Jun-2009
1.00000
30-Jun-2009
1.00000
12.000 11,908,610 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 30, 2003)
15-Sept-2009
1.00000
19-Feb-2010
10.00000
2.500 173,095,990 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First exercise date: Mar 31, 2003)
15-Jun-2010
1.00000
30-Jun-2010
1.00000
5-Sept-2010
1.00000
1.000 134,073,425 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First exercise date: Sep 30, 2003)
15-Sept-2010
1.00000
5.000 143,764,150 15 of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 16, 2002)
11-Nov-2010
1.00000
6.000 149,999,080 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Mar 31, 2004)
30-Dec-2010
1.00000
31-Oct-2011
1.00000
3.126 3,233,879,388 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 29, 2006)
29-Dec-2011
1.17978
30-Dec-2011
1.00000
6-Nov-2012
1.00000
0.010 19,273,281 Last business day of Jun and Dec (First Exercise date: Dec 30, 2002)
1-Dec-2012
1.00000
1-Dec-2012
1.00000
31-Mar-2013
1.00000
5.000 24,480,393 Last business day of Mar, Jun, Sep and Dec (First Exercise date: Jun 30, 2003)
Source: Set Smart, Compiled by SYRUS
Syrus
38
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547: 133.00 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 47: 177.00 ∫“∑
∫â“πªŸ
BANPU / BANP.BK
Consolidated earnings
√“¬‰¥â°â“«°√–‚¥¥„πªï 48
Yr-end
2002 9m03 2003 2004E 2005E
Norm profit (Bt mn) 730.7 968.9 1,247.6 1,239.2 2,355.6
Net profit
1,449.3 1,440.0 1,722.8 7,511.8 2,355.6
EPS (Bt)
6.78 5.39 6.43 28.05 8.80
Normalized EPS (Bt) 3.4 3.6 4.7 4.6 8.8
% growth y-y
84.9 13.6 18.9 336.0 (68.6)
Dividend (Bt)
2.60 1.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
BV/share (Bt)
41.4 54.3 55.9 81.1 86.9
ROA (%)
6.1 6.8 6.1 21.0 6.3
ROE (%)
8.4 13.5 8.4 5.7 10.2
Net D/E (x)
1.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3
EBITDA/share (Bt)
11.1 2.4 10.0 10.1 15.1
EV/EBITDA (x)
17.2 18.2 16.7 17.4 11.5
PER (x)
19.6 18.4 20.7 6.3 20.1
PBV (x)
3.2 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0
Dividend yield (%)
2.0 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.7
YE no. of shares 213.66 267.77 267.77 267.77 267.77
Par (Bt)
10 10 10 10 10
Source: Company data, SYRUS estimates
●
●
æ≈—ßß“π
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
√“§“∂à“πÀ‘π¬—ß§ß‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ √“§“∂à“πÀ‘π‡√‘Ë¡ àß —≠≠“≥°“√ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπµ—Èß·µà ‰µ√¡“ 4/45
‚¥¬√“§“‡©≈’Ë¬∑—Èßªï 46 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 35 ‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞/µ—π (Õâ“ßÕ‘ß®“°√“§“ Spot CIF price ≥ √–¥—∫
§«“¡√âÕπ 6,000 °‘‚≈·§≈Õ√’/°‘‚≈°√—¡) ·≈–§“¥«à“®–ª√—∫‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 9-10% „πªï 47 ∑—Èßπ’È
‡π◊ËÕß®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√„™â∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„πª√–‡∑»®’π ‡°“À≈’„µâ ·≈–≠’ËªÿÉπ √«¡∂÷ß¬ÿ‚√ª „π¢≥–∑’Ë
ª√‘¡“≥°“√º≈‘µ‚¥¬√«¡≈¥≈ß®“°°“√ªî¥‡À¡◊Õß¢π“¥‡≈Á°„π®’π ª√–°Õ∫°—∫§à“‡ß‘π¥Õ≈≈“√å
ÕÕ ‡µ√‡≈’¬¡’·π«‚πâ¡·¢Áß§à“¢÷Èπ‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫¥Õ≈≈“√å À√—∞ àßº≈„Àâµâπ∑ÿπ„π°“√º≈‘µ∂à“πÀ‘π
„πÕÕ ‡µ√‡≈’¬´÷Ëß‡ªìπºŸâº≈‘µ∂à“πÀ‘π√“¬„À≠à·≈–¡’§ÿ≥¿“æ¥’ Ÿß¢÷Èπ àßº≈„Àâ√“§“∂à“πÀ‘πÕ“®
ª√—∫µ—« Ÿß¢÷Èπ‰¥â „πÕπ“§µ
‡ªìπºŸâº≈‘µ·≈–®”Àπà“¬∂à“πÀ‘π‡Õ°™π√“¬„À≠à ÿ¥„πª√–‡∑» ªí®®ÿ∫—π BANPU ¡’‡À¡◊Õß
∂à“πÀ‘π„πª√–‡∑»‰∑¬ 2 ·Ààß ·≈–„πª√–‡∑»Õ‘π‚¥π’‡´’¬ 7 ·Ààß √«¡·≈â«ªï 46 ¡’ª√‘¡“≥
∂à“πÀ‘π ”√Õß (Reserves) 166.43 ≈â“πµ—π ·≈–ª√‘¡“≥∂à“π∑’Ë√Õ ”√«® (Resources) 139.0
≈â“πµ—π ∑”„Àâ BANPU °≈“¬‡ªìπºŸâπ”‡¢â“·≈– àßÕÕ°∂à“πÀ‘π„À≠à‡ªìπÕ—π¥—∫ 7 ¢Õß‚≈° ·≈–
Õ—π¥—∫ 4 ¢Õß‡Õ‡™’¬ πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß¡’·ºπ¢¬“¬°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ‡À¡◊Õßº≈‘µ∂à“πÀ‘π„πª√–‡∑»®’π¥â«¬
Planned Production (mt pa.)
Thailand
Lampang
Chiang Muan
Indonesia
Jorong
Indominco
Kitadin
Trubaindo
Barasentosa
Mampun Pandan
Bharinto
Total
Location
BANPUûs holding
Status
2003
2004
2005
2006
Thailand
Thailand
100.00%
94.00%
Operational
Operational
2.0
0.5
2.0
0.5
2.0
0.5
2.0
-
3.0
6.0
3.0
14.5
3.0
6.0
3.0
0.3
14.8
3.0
6.0
3.0
3.0
17.5
3.0
6.0
4.5
5.0
20.5
Kalimantan
Kalimantan
Kalimantan
Kalimantan
Sumatra
Sumatra
Kalimantan
95.00%
Operational
100.00%
Operational
100.00%
Operational
90.00% Project COD in 2004
86.00%
Project
95.00%
Project
94.05%
Project
Source: BANPU
●
Contact person:
Analyst: Charnvut Taecha-amorntanakij
Tel : 0-2646-9964
email : [email protected]
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
●
√“¬‰¥â°â“«°√–‚¥¥„πªï 48 º≈®“°‡À¡◊Õß∂à“πÀ‘π Trubaindo ªï 47 ®–‡ªìπªï·√°∑’Ë‡√‘Ë¡¡’°“√
º≈‘µ∂à“πÀ‘π®“°‡À¡◊Õß∂à“πÀ‘π Trubaindo À≈—ß°“√ ”√«®«‘®—¬‡ √Á® ‘Èπ ‚¥¬«“ß·ºπº≈‘µ 0.3
≈â“πµ—π„πªï 47 ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 3 ≈â“πµ—π„πªï 48 ·≈–‡ªìπ 5 ≈â“πµ—π„πªï 49 ∑”„Àâ°“√º≈‘µ
√«¡∑—Èßªï 47 ¬—ß§ß„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫ªï 46 ∑’Ë 15 ≈â“πµ—π ·µà®–°â“«°√–‚¥¥‡ªìπ 17.5 ≈â“πµ—π„πªï 48
·≈– 20.5 ≈â“πµ—π„πªï 49 ª√–°Õ∫°—∫√“§“∂à“πÀ‘π∑’Ëª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ ∑”„Àâ§“¥«à“√“¬‰¥â®“°
°“√®”Àπà“¬∂à“πÀ‘π®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß°â“«°√–‚¥¥‡ªìπ 20,459 ≈∫.„πªï 48 „π¢≥–∑’Ë§“¥«à“ªï 47
®–‡∑à“°—∫ 14,228 ≈∫.
°”‰√ 6,300 ≈∫. ®“°°“√¢“¬Àÿâπ RATCH „Àâ °øº. ®“°°“√≈ßπ“¡ —≠≠“´◊ÈÕ-¢“¬Àÿâπ
√–À«à“ß BANPU-°øº. ‚¥¬ °øº.®–´◊ÈÕÀÿâπ RATCH ®“° BANPU „π√“§“ 43.8589 ∫“∑
µàÕÀÿâπ®”π«π 217.4 ≈â“πÀÿâπ (§‘¥‡ªìπ 14.99% ¢ÕßÀÿâπ RATCH ∑—ÈßÀ¡¥) ·≈– BANPU ®–
´◊ÈÕÀÿâπ EGCOMP ®“° °øº. „π√“§“Àÿâπ≈– 91.8415 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ®”π«π 131.24 ≈â“πÀÿâπ
39
∫â“πªŸ
BANPU / BANP.BK
●
●
●
●
(§‘¥‡ªìπ 24.93% ¢ÕßÀÿâπ EGCOMP ∑—ÈßÀ¡¥) π—Èπ ÿ∑∏‘·≈â« BANPU µâÕß®à“¬‡ß‘π‡æ‘Ë¡∑—Èß ‘Èπ
2,518.2 ≈∫. (9.4 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡√“§“¢“¬ RATCH ∑’Ë 43.8589 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâππ—Èπ ¬—ß
Ÿß°«à“√“§“∑ÿπ∑’Ë´◊ÈÕ¡“∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 15.0 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ∑”„Àâ BANPU ®–∫—π∑÷°°”‰√®“°°“√¢“¬
‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπª√–¡“≥ 6,300 ≈∫. „πªï 47 ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ 23.4 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß BANPU
°≈“¬‡ªìπºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„À≠à „π EGCOMP 24.93% πÕ°®“° BANPU ®–¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘®À≈—°„π
∂à“πÀ‘π·≈â« ¬—ß¡’°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„π‚√ß‰øøÑ“´÷Ëß„™âæ≈—ßß“π®“°∂à“πÀ‘π‡ªìπÀ≈—° ´÷Ëßªí®®ÿ∫—π∂◊ÕÀÿâπÕ¬Ÿà
50% „π‚√ß‰øøÑ“ BLCP ∑’Ë®—ßÀ«—¥√–¬Õß °”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ 1,400 ‡¡°–«—µµå Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡
®“°°“√‡¢â“‡ªìπºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„À≠à „π EGCOMP ´÷Ëß‡ªìπºŸâº≈‘µ‰øøÑ“¢π“¥„À≠à ®÷ß¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥â
∑’Ë BANPU ®–¢“¬Àÿâπ¢Õß‚√ß‰øøÑ“ BLCP „Àâ EGCOMP ‡ªìπºŸâæ—≤π“µàÕ (°àÕπÀπâ“π’È¡’°“√
¢“¬‚√ß‰øøÑ“‰µ√ ‡Õπ‡πÕ®’È „Àâ RATCH ‡æ◊ËÕæ—≤π“µàÕ‡™àπ°—π) ·≈– BANPU ®–√—∫º≈
ª√–‚¬™πå®“°°“√‡ªìπºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ√“¬„À≠à„πÕπ“§µ
§“¥°“√≥å®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ 3.0 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ „πªï 46 ®“°º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π∑’Ë¥’Õ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß¢Õß
BANPU ·≈–ª√–«—µ‘°“√®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈Õ¬à“ß ¡Ë”‡ ¡Õ ∑”„Àâ SYRUS §“¥«à“„πªï 46 ®–®à“¬
‡ß‘πªíπº≈ 3.0 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ‚¥¬„π§√÷Ëß·√°¢Õßªï 46 ®à“¬‰ª·≈â« 1.5 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπº≈µÕ∫·∑π
¢Õß‡ß‘πªíπº≈ 2.25% ≥ √“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π (133 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ)
§“¥°“√≥å ‰µ√¡“ 4/46 √“¬‰¥â‡ªìπ 3,224 ≈∫. ≈¥≈ß 7.0%q-q ·µà‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 6.5%y-y °”‰√
ÿ∑∏‘‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 279 ≈∫. (‰¡à√«¡√“¬‰¥â®“°‡ß‘πªíπº≈) ≈¥≈ß 42%q-q ·µà‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
177.5%y-y ´÷Ëß‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫®“°√“§“∂à“π∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ ”§—≠ à«π√“¬‰¥â∑—Èßªï 46 §“¥«à“
®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 12,752 ≈∫. ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 16.89% ®“°ªï 45 ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 14,240 ·≈– 19,583 ≈∫. „πªï
47 ·≈– 48 µ“¡≈”¥—∫ à«π°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘§“¥«à“®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 1,723 ≈∫. ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 19% ®“°ªï 45 ·≈–
®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 7,512 ≈∫. (√«¡°”‰√®“°°“√¢“¬ RATCH) ·≈– 2,356 ≈∫. „πªï 47 ·≈– 48
µ“¡≈”¥—∫ §‘¥‡ªìπ°”‰√µàÕÀÿâπ 6.43, 28.05 ·≈– 8.80 „πªï 46, 47 ·≈– 48 µ“¡≈”¥—∫
√“§“ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πª≈“¬ªï 47 177.0 ∫“∑ „π°“√ª√–‡¡‘π¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿâπ SYRUS „π«‘∏’ Sum-Ofthe-Part method ‰¥â√“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π‡∑à“°—∫ 177 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπ P/E 38.0 ‡∑à“, P/BV
2.18 ‡∑à“ “‡Àµÿ∑’Ë§à“ P/E ¡’√–¥—∫ Ÿßπ’È ‡π◊ËÕß®“°¡’°“√√«¡¡Ÿ≈§à“®“°‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„π EGCOMP,
LANNA ·≈– ATC ´÷ßË ªí®®ÿ∫π— ¡’√“§“‡æ‘¡Ë Ÿß¢÷πÈ πÕ°®“°π’È BANPU ¬—ß¡’§“à ‡ ◊ÕË ¡√“§“„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß
´÷ËßÀ“°æ‘®“√≥“ P/Gross cashflow ‡©æ“– à«π¢Õß BANPU ‡Õß®–µË”‡æ’¬ß 8.2 ‡∑à“ √“§“
µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¥—ß°≈à“«¡’√“§“ Ÿß°«à“√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π 33.08% ·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé
Sum-Of-the-Part Valuation
Total shares
(mn)
1. Coal business
2. Power business
- EGCOMP
- BLCP
3. Others
- LANNA
- ATC
4. Less net debt
5. Less minority
Total
BANPUûs
Estimated
BANPUûs
holding value (Bt/share) value (mn bt)
29,887.0
Bt/share
112
526.5
24.93%
50.00%
96.0
12,599.8
1,350.0
47
5
350.0
958.0
10.07%
14.90%
8.0
85.0
282.0
12,133.1
8,771.2
149.1
47,331.5
1
45
33
1
177
Source: SYRUS estimates
Syrus
40
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 11.20 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 15.00 ∫“∑
∏π“§“√°√ÿß‰∑¬
KTB / KTB.BK
ª√—∫√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ªï 2547 ‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 15 ∫“∑
(Bt mn)
Pre provision profit
Net profit (Bt mn)
PPP/share (Bt)
% growth y-y
EPS (Bt)
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
PPP/assets (%)
PPP/equity (%)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
PE (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
YE no. of shares (mn)
Par (Bt)
2002 2003* 2004E
10,024.0 12,239.1 17,164.1
8,009.2 8,697.4 15,054.3
0.90
1.09
1.53
87.3
22.1
40.2
0.72
0.78
1.35
(281.4)
8.6
nm
0.26 0.467
0.67
5.82
6.70
7.58
0.99
1.12
1.38
15.6
17.5
21.5
0.8
0.8
1.1
12.3
11.6
17.8
9.4
15.9
9.2
1.2
1.9
1.6
3.9
3.8
5.4
11,185.0 11,185.0 11,185.0
5.15
5.15
5.15
●
●
●
●
* Based on unauditted financial statement
●
●
Contact person:
Analyst: Sirinattha Techasiriwan
Tel : 0-2646-9965
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
∏π“§“√
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
ª√—∫√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ªï 2547 ‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 15 ∫“∑ ®“°√“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘„π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ∑’Ë¥’
°«à“§“¥ SYRUS ‰¥âª√—∫‡æ‘¡Ë ¡¡µ‘∞“π à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’¬È ÿ∑∏‘„πªï 2547 - 2549 ‡æ‘¡Ë ®“°ªï
2546 ª√–¡“≥ 0.10% ‡ªìπª√–¡“≥ 2.30% ·≈–§“¥«à“‡ß‘π„Àâ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ„πªï 2547 - 2549 ®–
‡æ‘Ë¡‡©≈’Ë¬ªï≈– 15% √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬∑’Ë 15 ∫“∑ ¡’ P/E11 ‡∑à“ P/BV 1.2 ‡∑à“ ·π–π”´◊ÈÕ
·¡â°”‰√‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ≈¥≈ß®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·µà√“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¡“°
π—∫«à“‡ªìπ —≠≠“≥∑’Ë¥’ º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π≈à“ ÿ¥ ‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 KTB ª√–°“»°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘
‡∑à“°—∫ 2,701 ≈∫. (0.24 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ) ≈¥≈ß 39% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ‡π◊ËÕß®“°§à“„™â®à“¬
Õ◊ËπÊ ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß πÕ°®“°π’È ‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ¡’√“¬‰¥âæ‘‡»…§◊Õ°“√°≈—∫√“¬°“√ ”√Õß
‡º◊ËÕ¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°°“√¥âÕ¬§à“¢Õß ‘π∑√—æ¬å√Õ°“√¢“¬‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥â 1,323 ≈∫. Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡√“¬‰¥â
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 19% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·≈–∑—Èßªï 2546 √“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡
15% ®“°ªï 2545 ´÷Ëßπ—∫«à“‡ªìπ°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë Ÿß
¢¬“¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ„π‡™‘ß√ÿ° ¢≥–∑’Ë à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ √“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
¡“°¡’ “‡Àµÿ®“°°“√ª≈àÕ¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ„π‡™‘ß√ÿ° „πªï 2546 ‘π‡™◊ËÕ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 15% ¢≥–∑’Ë à«πµà“ß
Õ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ®“° 2.01% „π‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ‡ªìπ 2.37% „π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546
à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡©≈’Ë¬ªï 2546 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 2.08% ‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 1.91%„πªï 2545
§“¥ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ’° ®“°°“√‰∂à∂Õπµ—Î« —≠≠“„™â‡ß‘π‚¥¬ ∫∫ . ÿ¢ÿ¡«‘∑
SYRUS §“¥«à“ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘¢Õß KTB ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ’° À≈—ß®“°°“√‰∂à∂Õπµ—Î«
—≠≠“„™â‡ß‘π‚¥¬ ∫∫ . ÿ¢ÿ¡«‘∑ ´÷Ëß ªí®®ÿ∫—π KTB ¡’µ—Î« —≠≠“„™â‡ß‘π¢Õß ∫∫ . ÿ¢ÿ¡«‘∑
(∂◊ÕÀÿâπ‚¥¬ FIDF) ¡Ÿ≈§à“ª√–¡“≥ 2.8 · π≈∫. (√«¡¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß√—∫) ∫—π∑÷°Õ¬Ÿà¿“¬„µâ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ
´÷Ëß‰¥â√—∫¥Õ°‡∫’È¬„πÕ—µ√“µË”‡∑à“°—∫Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πΩ“°∂—«‡©≈’Ë¬¢Õß KTB µ—Î« —≠≠“„™â‡ß‘π¢Õß ∫∫ .
ÿ¢ÿ¡«‘∑ ®–À¡¥Õ“¬ÿ„π‡¥◊Õπ °.¬. 2548 À√◊Õ KTB ¡’ ‚Õ°“ ‡®√®“¢Õ‰∂à∂Õπµ—Î« —≠≠“„™â‡ß‘π
¥—ß°≈à“«°àÕπ°”Àπ¥ ´÷Ëß®–∑”„Àâ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘¢Õß KTB ¥’¢÷Èπ ‡π◊ËÕß®“° “¡“√∂
π”‡ß‘π∑’Ë ‰¥â®“°°“√‰∂à∂Õπ ‰ªª≈àÕ¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ´÷Ëß‰¥âº≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß°«à“
√“¬‰¥â§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡‡æ‘Ë¡µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß √“¬‰¥â∑’Ë ‰¡à „™à¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ‡æ‘Ë¡ 3.1% ®“°
‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·≈–∑—Èßªï 2546 √“¬‰¥â∑’Ë ‰¡à „™à¥Õ°‡∫’È¬‡æ‘Ë¡ 8.7% ®“°ªï 2545 ´÷Ëßπ—∫«à“‡æ‘Ë¡
„π√–¥—∫∑’Ë¥’‡™àπ°—π ‚¥¬√“¬‰¥â∑’Ë ‰¡à „™à¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ‚¥¬‡©æ“–√“¬‰¥â§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡¡’·π«‚πâ¡‡æ‘Ë¡
µàÕ‡π◊ËÕßµ—Èß·µàµâπªï 2546
‰¥â√—∫¥”‡π‘π‚§√ß°“√√–∫∫∫√‘À“√‡ß‘π√—∞∫“≈ (GFMIS) ™à«¬‡æ‘Ë¡√“¬‰¥â§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡ ≈à“ ÿ¥
KTB ‰¥â√—∫ —≠≠“®â“ß‚§√ß°“√√–∫∫∫√‘À“√‡ß‘π√—∞∫“≈ (GFMIS) ´÷Ëß®–™à«¬¢¬“¬∞“π≈Ÿ°§â“
¢Õß∏π“§“√„Àâ§√Õ∫§≈ÿ¡Àπà«¬ß“π√—∞œ ∑—Ë«ª√–‡∑» ®“°ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë „Àâ∫√‘°“√Àπà«¬ß“π√—∞œ
ª√–¡“≥ 224 ·Ààß ·≈–√—∞«‘ “À°‘®ª√–¡“≥ 60 ·Ààß ·≈–®–™à«¬‡æ‘Ë¡∞“π√“¬‰¥â§à“
∏√√¡‡π’¬¡„πÕπ“§µ ª√–°Õ∫°—∫π‚¬∫“¬¢Õß√—∞∫“≈„π°“√‡æ‘Ë¡ª√– ‘∑∏‘¿“æ„π°“√ªØ‘∫—µ‘ß“π
¢Õß¿“§√—∞œ SYRUS ‡™◊ËÕ«à“®– àßº≈∫«°µàÕ√“¬‰¥â§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡¢Õß KTB „π√–¬–ª“π°≈“ß
∂÷ß¬“«
41
BUY
‡ß‘π∑ÿπ ∏π™“µ‘
NFS / NFS.BK
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 14.80 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 22.00 ∫“∑
Profit from operation
% growth y-y
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
Par (Bt)
‡ß‘π∑ÿπ
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
P/E ·≈– P/BV µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ
2002 2003*
2,108 3,649
10.8 73.1
1,723 2,669
1.29 2.00
250.5 54.9
0.50 0.80
13.6 14.4
1.5 1.8
10.1 14.3
11.0 8.3
1.0 1.2
3.5 4.8
1,333.2 1,333.2
10.0 10.0
2004E
4,394
20.4
3,028
2.27
13.4
0.91
15.0
1.7
15.4
6.5
1.0
6.1
1,333.2
10.0
* Based on unauditted financial statement
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Contact person:
Tel : 0-2646-9965
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√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ªï 2547 ∑’Ë 22 ∫“∑ ·π–π”´◊ÈÕ SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π√“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï
2547 ¢Õß NFS ∑’Ë 22 ∫“∑ (P/E 10 ‡∑à“ P/BV 1.5 ‡∑à“) Ÿß°«à“√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß NFS
∑’Ë 14.80 ∫“∑ ∂÷ß 48% ‚¥¬√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß NFS ∑’Ë 14.80 ∫“∑ ¡’ P/E ·≈– P/BV ∑’ËµË”
‡æ’¬ß 6.6 ‡∑à“·≈– 1 ‡∑à“ µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ ®÷ß·π–π”´◊ÈÕ
P/E ·≈– P/BV µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ „πªï 2546 NFS
¡’°”‰√ 2 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ ·≈– BV/share 14.4 ∫“∑ ´÷Ëß√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß NFS ∑’Ë 14.80 ∫“∑ ¡’ P/E
∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ß 7.4 ‡∑à“‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫°”‰√ªï 2546 ·≈–§“¥«à“®–≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õ 6.6 ‡∑à“‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫
§“¥°“√≥å°”‰√ªï 2547 ∑’Ë 2.27 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ NFS ¡’ P/BV ∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ßª√–¡“≥ 1 ‡∑à“ µË”∑’Ë ÿ¥
‡¡◊ËÕ‡∑’¬∫°—∫∫ß. ¢π“¥„À≠à ·≈–∏π“§“√Õ◊ËπÊ
§“¥®à“¬ªíπº≈ 0.80 ∫“∑ Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 5.4% „πªï 2545 NFS ®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈
0.50 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈®à“¬ 39% ¢Õß°”‰√ ”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2546
SYRUS §“¥«à“ NFS ®–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„πÕ—µ√“ 40% ¢Õß°”‰√À√◊Õ 0.80 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“
‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 5.4% ®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π À√◊ÕÀ“°ª√–‡¡‘π·∫∫√–¡—¥√–«—ßªíπº≈®à“¬‰¡à§«√
πâÕ¬°«à“ªï 2545 §◊Õ 0.50 ∫“∑ ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π¢—ÈπµË” 3.4%
‡µ√’¬¡§«∫√«¡°—∫ NBANK ‡ªìπ∏π“§“√„Àâ∫√‘°“√∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π§√∫«ß®√ NFS °”≈—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π
™à«ß°“√¥”‡π‘π°“√§«∫√«¡°—∫∏π“§“√∏π™“µ‘ (NBANK) ´÷Ëß·¡â°“√√«¡°‘®°“√°—∫ NBANK
®–‰¡à¡’º≈µàÕ°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π¡“°π—°∑—Èß„π¥â“π∫«° ·≈–≈∫ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°ªí®®ÿ∫—π°≈ÿà¡∏π™“µ‘¡’°“√
∫√‘À“√ß“π‡ªìπ°≈ÿà¡∏ÿ√°‘® ·≈–∑“ß¥â“πªØ‘∫—µ‘°“√ (back office) ‰¥â¡’°“√·¬°ÕÕ°¡“·≈â«
√«¡∂÷ß NFS ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„π NBANK 98.89% ´÷Ëß„π°“√√“¬ß“π∑“ß∫—≠™’ ‰¥âπ”º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π
¡“√«¡°—π ·µàÀ“°æ‘®“√≥“„π≈—°…≥–°≈ÿà¡∏ÿ√°‘® NFS π—∫«à“¡’°“√„Àâ∫√‘°“√∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π§√∫
«ß®√ ‚¥¬ “¡“√∂„Àâ∫√‘°“√∑—Èß∑“ß¥â“π ‘π‡™◊ËÕ√“¬¬àÕ¬ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∏ÿ√°‘® «“≥‘™∏π°‘® √«¡∂÷ß∂◊Õ
Àÿâπ„π∫≈. ∏π™“µ‘ 100% „π∫®.∏π™“µ‘ª√–°—π¿—¬ 70% „π∫®.∏π™“µ‘´Ÿ√‘°ª√–°—π™’«‘µ 50%
·≈–„π ∫≈®.∏π™“µ‘ 75%
ªï 2546 °”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡ 73% °”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡ 55% „πªï 2546 NFS ¡’°”‰√®“°
°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π (°”‰√°àÕπ ”√Õßœ °”‰√®“°‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ ·≈–¿“…’) ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 73% ®“°ªï 2545
¢≥–∑’Ë°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡ 55% ®“°ªï 2545 ‚¥¬‡©æ“–‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ∑’Ëºà“π¡“°”‰√®“°°“√
¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡∂÷ß 48% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·≈–°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡∂÷ß 26% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ´÷Ëß¡’ “‡Àµÿ®“°°“√‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ¢Õß∑—Èß√“¬‰¥â¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘ √“¬‰¥â§à“π“¬Àπâ“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬
À≈—°∑√—æ¬å ·≈–√“¬‰¥â§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡
‘π∑√—æ¬å‡æ‘Ë¡„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß ®“°°“√‡√àß¢¬“¬≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ… ‘π∑√—æ¬åªí®®ÿ∫—π Ÿß„°≈â‡§’¬ß BOA
‘π∑√—æ¬å¢Õß NFS ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ß√«¥‡√Á« ‚¥¬„πªï 2546 ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ 34% ®“°ªï 2545 ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡
¢÷Èπ‡∑à“µ—«®“°ªï 2543 ´÷Ëß¡’ “‡Àµÿ®“°π‚¬∫“¬°“√¢¬“¬≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ„π‡™‘ß√ÿ° ‚¥¬≈Ÿ°Àπ’È
‡™à“´◊ÈÕ„πªï 2545 ‡æ‘Ë¡ 116% ®“°ªï 2544 ·≈– 9 ‡¥◊Õπ·√°¢Õßªï 2546 ≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ‡æ‘Ë¡
61% ®“°ªï 2545 ≥ ‘Èπªï 2546 °≈ÿà¡∫√‘…—∑∏π™“µ‘¡’ ‘π∑√—æ¬å 167,748 ≈∫. Ÿß„°≈â‡§’¬ß
BOA ·≈– Ÿß°«à“ DTDB
·¡â≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ‚µ°â“«°√–‚¥¥ ·µà “¡“√∂√—°…“√–¥—∫ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘ ‚¥¬∂÷ß·¡â
NFS ®–„™â°≈¬ÿ∑∏å∑“ß¥â“π√“§“„π°“√¢¬“¬≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ ·µà∫√‘…—∑ “¡“√∂∫√‘À“√µâπ∑ÿπ
∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π„Àâ≈¥≈ß àßº≈„Àâ “¡“√∂√—°…“√–¥—∫ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘ ‚¥¬ à«πµà“ßÕ—µ√“
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬ ÿ∑∏‘‡©≈’Ë¬„πªï 2546 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 3.07% „°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫ 3.04% „πªï 2545
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
42
‡ß‘π∑ÿπ ∏π™“µ‘
NFS / NFS.BK
●
●
●
Syrus
à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥¥â“ππ“¬Àπâ“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬À≈—°∑√—æ¬å‡æ‘Ë¡µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ∂÷ß·¡â«à“√“¬‰¥â®“°∏ÿ√°‘®π“¬Àπâ“
´◊ÈÕ¢“¬À≈—°∑√—æ¬å¢Õß NFS „πªí®®ÿ∫—π®–¡’ —¥ à«π‡æ’¬ßª√–¡“≥ 10% ¢Õß√“¬‰¥â√«¡ ·µà
à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥¥â“ππ“¬Àπâ“´◊ÈÕ¢“¬À≈—°∑√—æ¬å¢Õß NFS ‡æ‘Ë¡µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß®“° 2.20% „π‰µ√¡“ 1/2546 ‡ªìπ 2.59% „π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 (2.46% ”À√—∫∑—Èßªï 2546) π—∫«à“‡ªìπæ—≤π“°“√∑’Ë¥’
ªï 2547 µâÕß®à“¬¿“…’‡µÁ¡ ·µà§“¥°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡ 24% ·≈–°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘¬—ß§ß
‡æ‘Ë¡ 12% ®“°ªï 2546 „πªï 2547 ¥â«¬°“√ª√–¡“≥°“√·∫∫√–¡—¥√–«—ß SYRUS §“¥«à“
≈Ÿ°Àπ’È‡™à“´◊ÈÕ¢Õß NFS ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ18,000 ≈∫. À√◊Õª√–¡“≥ 30% ®“°ªï 2546 ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ√–¥—∫
∑’Ë≈¥≈ß®“°ªï 2546 ∑’Ë§“¥«à“®–‡æ‘Ë¡ª√–¡“≥ 24,000 ≈∫. ·≈–§“¥«à“°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π
®–‡æ‘Ë¡ 24% ®“°ªï 2546 ∑—Èßπ’È „πªï 2547 NFS ®–µâÕß‡√‘Ë¡®à“¬¿“…’ „πÕ—µ√“‡µÁ¡ (25%
”À√—∫°”‰√ 300 ≈∫. ·√° ·≈– 30% ”À√—∫°”‰√∑’Ë‡°‘π 300 ≈∫.) ®“°Õ—µ√“¿“…’„πªï 2546
Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ëª√–¡“≥ 10% Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡§“¥«à“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘¬—ß§ß®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπª√–¡“≥ 12% ‡ªìπ 2.27
∫“∑/Àÿâπ
§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß : ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬¢÷Èπ°√–∑∫‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„πµ√“ “√Àπ’È NFS ‰¥â‡ª≈’Ë¬π‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„πµ√“ “√
Àπ’È∫“ß à«π‡ªìπ‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ√–¬–¬“« ¥—ßπ—ÈπÀ“°¥Õ°‡∫’È¬„πµ≈“¥µ√“ “√Àπ’È¢÷ÈπµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß º≈
¢“¥∑ÿπ∑’Ë‡°‘¥®–‰¡à°√–∑∫ß∫°”‰√¢“¥∑ÿπ ·µà®–À—°®“° à«π¢ÕßºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ ´÷Ëß SYRUS ‰¥â§”π÷ß
∂÷ß„πª√–¡“≥°“√·≈â« ‚¥¬§“¥«à“·¡â „πªï 2546 °”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ NFS ®–‡æ‘Ë¡ 12% ·≈–¡’ ROE
15.4% ·µà BV/share ¢Õß NFS ®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡æ’¬ß 4% ‡ªìπ 15 ∫“∑
43
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 5.05 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 6.50 ∫“∑
æ—≤πå°≈
PATKL / PATK.BK
‰¢âÀ«—¥π°...æ≈‘°«‘°ƒµ‘‡ªìπ‚Õ°“ Yr-end
Norm profit (Bt mn)
Net profit
Norm EPS (fully dilute) (Bt)
EPS (fully dilute) (Bt)
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA/share (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
YE no. of shares
Par (Bt)
2002 9m03 2003E 2004E
86 94 125 145
95 121 152 145
8.14 8.87 11.84 0.61
8.98 11.39 14.36 0.61
20.5 52.4 60.0 (95.8)
2.00 0.00 1.50 0.18
39.9 49.5 52.5 3.3
7.2 10.9 10.2 8.8
25.9 33.8 31.1 21.5
2.2 1.8 1.7 1.1
14.8 15.1 20.0 1.0
8.5 5.1 9.3 8.9
4.2 12.1 6.8 8.3
0.9 1.4 1.8 1.5
5.3 0.0 1.5 3.6
10.6 10.6 10.6 238.5
10 10
10
1
●
●
●
●
●
●
Contact person:
Tel : 0-2646-9965
‡§√◊ËÕß¡◊Õ ·≈–‡§√◊ËÕß®—°√
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
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æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ¢Õß PATKL ∑’Ë 6.50 ∫“∑ ¡’√–¥—∫ P/E §‘¥®“°§“¥°“√≥åº≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï
2547 ‡∑à“°—∫ 10.7 ‡∑à“ √“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß PATKL ∑’Ë 5.05 ∫“∑ ¡’ P/E ∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ß 8.3 ‡∑à“
·≈–µË”°«à“√“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π 29% ·π–π”´◊ÈÕ
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µ.§. 2546
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Õ“∑‘‡™àπ°“√‡¢â“‰ª¢¬“¬µ≈“¥„π∫—ß§≈“‡∑» ´÷Ëßæ∫«à“¡’§«“¡µâÕß°“√∑“ß¥â“π∏ÿ√°‘®π¡ ·≈–
∏ÿ√°‘®Õ“À“√∑–‡≈·™à·¢Áß„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß
§“¥°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2547 ‡æ‘Ë¡ 16% °”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘≈¥ 5% ¥â«¬°“√ª√–¡“≥°“√≥å
·∫∫√–¡—¥√–«—ß SYRUS §“¥«à“ PATKL ®–¡’√“¬‰¥â „πªï 2547 ‡æ‘Ë¡ª√–¡“≥ 15% ®“°ªï
2546 (√“¬‰¥âªï 2546 ‡æ‘Ë¡ 20% ®“°ªï 2545) Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡§“¥«à“Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ®–≈¥≈ß
®“°√“§“«—µ∂ÿ¥‘∫ (‡À≈Á°, ‡µπ‡≈ ) ∑’Ë Ÿß¢÷Èπ √«¡∂÷ßπ‚¬∫“¬√ÿ°µ≈“¥œ ¢Õß∫√‘…—∑ ´÷Ëß®– àßº≈
„Àâ°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π‡æ‘Ë¡ª√–¡“≥ 16% ¢≥–∑’Ë „πªï 2546 PATKL ¡’√“¬°“√æ‘‡»…
°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È ·≈–°≈—∫√“¬°“√Àπ’È Ÿ≠‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥â√«¡ª√–¡“≥ 25 ≈∫.
¥—ßπ—Èπ§“¥«à“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘®–≈¥≈ßª√–¡“≥ 5% ‡ªìπ 0.61 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ (æ“√å 1 ∫“∑)
·µ°æ“√å®“° 10 ‡ªìπ 1 ∫“∑ ·®°Àÿâπªíπº≈ «Õ·√π∑å ·≈–®à“¬ªíπº≈‡ß‘π ¥ ®–™à«¬·°â
ªí≠À“¥â“π ¿“æ§≈àÕß „π‡¥◊Õπ¡.§. ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ PATKL ‰¥â·µ°æ“√å®“° 10 ∫“∑ ‡ªìπ 1 ∫“∑
·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ„Àâ°—∫ºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ‡¥‘¡√«¡∂÷ß·®°«Õ√å·√π∑å —¥ à«π 4 Àÿâπ‡¥‘¡ : 1 Àÿâπ„À¡à (√“§“ 1
∫“∑) : 2 «Õ√å·√π∑å æ√âÕ¡·®°Àÿâπªíπº≈ —¥ à«π 1 Àÿâπ‡¥‘¡ : 1 Àÿâπªíπº≈ ·≈–®à“¬ªíπº≈
‡ß‘π ¥Õ’° 0.15 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ (æ“√å 1 ∫“∑) ‚¥¬¢÷Èπ‡§√◊ËÕßÀ¡“¬ XD ·≈– XR «—π∑’Ë 23 ¡.§. 2547
´÷ËßÀ≈—ß®“°°“√‡ª≈’Ë¬π·ª≈ß¥—ß°≈à“« ®”π«πÀÿâπ¢Õß PATKL ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ®“° 106 ≈â“πÀÿâπ
(æ“√å 10 ∫“∑) ‡ªìπ 2,385 ≈â“πÀÿâπ (æ“√å 1 ∫“∑) ‚¥¬§“¥«à“Àÿâπªíπº≈ ·≈–Àÿâπ‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ®–
‡¢â“¡“‡∑√¥„π™à«ßª≈“¬‡¥◊Õπ °.æ. 2547 ´÷Ëß®–™à«¬·°âªí≠À“∑“ß¥â“π ¿“æ§≈àÕß¢ÕßÀÿâπ∑’Ë
À¡ÿπ‡«’¬π„π°√–¥“π
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
44
æ—≤πå°≈
PATKL / PATK.BK
°“√‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ¢Õß PATKL
Àÿâπ‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ (≈â“πÀÿâπ)
106.0
26.5
53.0
28.5
°“√®—¥ √√
Àÿâπªíπº≈ —¥ à«π 1 Àÿâπ‡¥‘¡ : 1 Àÿâπªíπº≈
‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ —¥ 4 Àÿâπ‡¥‘¡ : 1Àÿâπ„À¡à √“§“ 1 ∫“∑
√Õß√—∫°“√„™â ‘∑∏‘«Õ√å·√π∑å∑’Ë „Àâ°—∫ºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„À¡à —¥ à«π ®Õß´◊ÈÕ 1 Àÿâπ„À¡à ‰¥â 2 «Õ√å·√π∑å (Õ“¬ÿ
3 ªï √“§“„™â ‘∑∏‘ 5 ∫“∑)
¢“¬‡©æ“–‡®“–®ß√“§“‰¡àµË”°«à“ 80% ¢Õß√“§“µ≈“¥‡©≈’Ë¬ 10 «—π°àÕπ°“√¢“¬
∑’Ë¡“ : Setsmart
●
∏ÿ√°‘®¢Õß PATKL PATKL ‡ªìπºŸâπ”µ≈“¥œ „π∏ÿ√°‘®ÕÕ°·∫∫·≈–º≈‘µ√–∫∫∑”§«“¡‡¬Áπ
·≈–‡§√◊ËÕß®—°√º≈‘µÕ“À“√ ‚¥¬∫√‘…—∑Õ¬Ÿà „π∏ÿ√°‘®¡“π“π∂÷ß 38 ªï (°àÕµ—Èßªï 2508) ∏ÿ√°‘®¢Õß
∫√‘…—∑·∫àß‡ªìπ 5 ¥â“π‰¥â·°à 1) ‡§√◊ËÕß∑”§«“¡‡¬Áπ ”À√—∫Õÿµ “À°√√¡Õ“À“√ 2) ‡§√◊ËÕß∑”
πÈ”·¢Áß 3) ΩÉ“¬Õ“À“√·≈–π¡ 4) ΩÉ“¬«‘»«°√√¡·ª√√ŸªÕ“À“√ 5) ΩÉ“¬‚§√ß°“√§√∫«ß®√
(Turn key)
∏ÿ√°‘®¢Õß PATKL
º≈‘µ¿—≥±å
‡§√◊ËÕß∑”§«“¡‡¬Áπ ”À√—∫
Õÿµ “À°√√¡Õ“À“√
≈Ÿ°§â“ / à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ
—¥ à«π√“¬‰¥â (%)
- ∫√‘…—∑™—Èππ”„π∏ÿ√°‘®Õ“À“√Õ“∑‘‡™àπ SSF, TUF, CPF à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ
28
60 - 70%
- ∏ÿ√°‘® Hyper Market à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ 40 - 50%
‡§√◊ÕË ß∑”πÈ”·¢Áß
‚√ßπÈ”·¢Áßµà“ßÊ „πª√–‡∑» à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ 80 - 90%
30
∫√‘…—∑ ATLAS ´÷Ëß§√Õß à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ 100% „π¡“‡≈‡™’¬ ·≈–¡’°“√¢¬“¬µ≈“¥œ
‰ªª√–‡∑»Õ◊Ëπ ‡™àπÕ‘π‚¥π’‡™’¬, øî≈‘ªªîπ å
ΩÉ“¬Õ“À“√·≈–π¡
à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥œ ª√–¡“≥ 70 - 80% ”À√—∫∂—ßπ¡ ≈Ÿ°§â“‡™àπ ‡ √‘¡ ÿ¢
25
‰∑¬πÈ”∑‘æ¬å, Dutch mill, CP Meji, Foremost, TIPCO, Hynegen, °–∑‘™“«‡°“–
ΩÉ“¬«‘»«°√√¡·ª√√ŸªÕ“À“√ ≈Ÿ°§â“‡™àπ ÿ°’È MK, »Ÿπ¬å¢“¬µ‘Ë¡´”¢Õß ÿ√æ≈øŸ¥ å
10 - 15
∑’Ë¡“ : PATKL
Syrus
45
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 13.50 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 20.00 ∫“∑
æ√äÕæ‡æÕ√åµ’È ‡æÕ√å‡ø§
PF / PF.BK
ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¥’·µàÕ“®¡’·√ß¢“¬®“°Àÿâπ∑’Ë·ª≈ßÀπ’È‡ªìπ∑ÿπ°¥¥—π√“§“
(Bt mn)
Normalized profit
Norm EPS-fully diluted (Bt)
Net profit
EPS (Bt)- fully diluted
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Normalized ROA (%)
Normalized ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA/shr (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Norm PE-fully diluted (x)
Dividend yield (%)
No. of share-fully diluted
Par (Bt)
2002 9m03 2003E 2004E
534 594 869 1,320
0.67 0.74 1.09 1.65
2,342 617 1,112 1,320
2.93 0.77 1.39 1.65
(46.2) 67.2 (64.2) 18.7
0.00 0.0 0.00 0.49
32.54 5.2 6.00 6.17
35.4 11.50 14.5 15.3
155.7 42.0 36.2 30.9
8.1 11.1 11.3 15.3
35.5 40.5 28.3 30.9
1.8 1.7 1.2 0.7
29.64 1.04 1.51 1.72
2.3 8.3 13.9 10.7
0.3 10.2 7.6 8.2
0.3 2.7 2.3 2.3
13.8 14.1 12.9 8.5
0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5
78 602.4 602.4 800.1
800 800 800.1 800.1
10 10 10 10
●
●
●
Quarterly forecast
4Q02 3Q03 4Q03E % q-q % y-y
Total revenues
2,419 948 1,353 42.7 (44.1)
Total expenses
488 717 1,075 49.9 120.4
EBIT
1,931 231 278 20.3 (85.6)
Interest expense
0
2
3 32.9 nm
Net profit
1,973 229 495 116.4 (74.9)
Normalize profit
209 229 275 20.2 31.3
EPS-fully diluted
2.47 0.29 0.62 116.4 (74.9)
ROE
311.6 29.3 54.7
BV/share
32.5 5.2 6.0
# shares-fully diluted 800 800 800
Gross mar (%)
41.4 33.5 34.0
EBITDA mar (%)
79.9 24.6 20.7
Net profit mar (%) 81.6 24.1 36.6
Net D/E
1.8 1.7 1.2
Source: Company data, Syrus estimates
Contact person:
Research: Satit Buachoo
Tel: 0-2646-9963
email: [email protected]
●
●
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§«“¡ “¡“√∂„π°“√®à“¬ªíπº≈ ‚¥¬π‚¬∫“¬ªíπº≈„πªí®®ÿ∫—π®–®à“¬ªíπº≈„πÕ—µ√“‰¡à‡°‘π 50%
¢Õß°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘
∞“π–∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π·¢Áß·°√àß∑—π∑’À≈—ßª√—∫Àπ’È®∫ ‡√“§“¥«à“°√–∫«π°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È¢Õß
PF ®–®∫ ‘Èπ„π‰µ√¡“ 1/47 π’È ´÷Ëß„π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ‰¥â¡’°“√µ’∑√—æ¬å™”√–Àπ’È FRN (Floating
Rate Note) ‰ª 1.1 æ—π≈∫. ®“°Àπ’È¡’ª√–°—π„πß∫¥ÿ≈®”π«π 1.56 æ—π≈∫. ‚¥¬ à«π∑’Ë‡À≈◊Õ‰¥â
∂Ÿ°·ª≈ß‡ªìπ∑ÿπ®”π«πª√–¡“≥ 47 ≈â“πÀÿâπ (‡¢â“¡“„π§√—Èßπ’È¥â«¬) µ“¡‡ß◊ËÕπ‰¢°“√ª√—∫
‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È¡’À≈—°ª√–°—π´÷ËßÀ“°¡Ÿ≈§à“Àπ’È‡°‘πÀ≈—°ª√–°—π®–µâÕß·ª≈ß à«π∑’Ë‡°‘π‡ªìπ∑ÿπ ‚¥¬
À≈—ß®“°°“√µ’∑√—æ¬å™”√–Àπ’È·≈â«§“¥«à“Õ—µ√“ à«πÀπ’È ‘π ÿ∑∏‘µàÕ∑ÿπ (Net D/E) ≥ ‘Èπ‰µ√¡“ 1/47 ®–≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õ‡æ’¬ß 1.2 ‡∑à“®“° 1.8 ‡∑à“„πªï 45 àßº≈„Àâ∞“π–∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π·¢Áß·°√àß¢÷Èπ
∑—π∑’
√“¬‰¥â·≈–°”‰√‡µ‘∫‚µÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ‡√“§“¥«à“„πªï 46 PF ®–¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘®”π«π 1.1 æ—π
≈∫. (1.85 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ·µàÀ“°‰¡à√«¡√“¬°“√æ‘‡»…§◊Õ°”‰√®“°°“√µ—¥√“¬°“√¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®à“¬
≈à«ßÀπâ“ ∑’Ë‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ„π°“√µ’∑√—æ¬å™”√–Àπ’È®”π«π 220 ≈∫. ·≈â«®–¡’°”‰√ª°µ‘‡∑à“°—∫ 869 ≈∫.
(1.44 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß 63% ®“°ªï 45 ∑—Èßπ’È‡π◊ËÕß®“°§“¥«à“ªï 46
®–¡’°“√√—∫√Ÿâ√“¬‰¥â®”π«π 3.75 æ—π≈∫. À√◊Õ‡µ‘∫‚µ∂÷ß 106.5% ¢≥–∑’Ë§“¥«à“¬Õ¥√—∫√Ÿâ√“¬‰¥â
„πªï 47 ®–¬—ß§ß‡µ‘∫‚µÕ’°°«à“ 58.2% ‡ªìπ 5.94 æ—π≈∫. ®“°°“√‡ªî¥‚§√ß°“√„À¡à∂÷ß 1.24
À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. àßº≈„Àâ°”‰√ª°µ‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 1.3 æ—π≈∫. §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß°”‰√ª°µ‘∑’Ë
Ÿß∂÷ß 52%
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
46
PF / PF.BK
§“¥°“√≥å¬Õ¥¢“¬ ·≈– ¬Õ¥√—∫√Ÿâ√“¬‰¥â¢Õß PF
(Btmn)
Presales
Recognize
Backlog
Growth (%)
Presales
Recognize
2001
2002
2003E
2004E
2005E
897.0
593.9
1,972.0
1,817.1
500.0
3,500.0
3,753.0
247.0
6,125.0
5,937.9
434.0
6,737.5
6,695.6
476.0
119.8%
205.9%
77.5%
106.5%
75.0%
58.2%
10.0%
12.8%
Source: PF, Syrus estimates
●
●
∑’Ë¥‘π‡°à“æ—≤π“µàÕ‰¥â∑—π∑’...∑’Ë¥‘π„À¡à‡æ‘Ë¡∑”‡≈„°≈âµ—«‡¡◊Õß ªí®®ÿ∫—π PF ¡’∑’Ë¥‘π„π¡◊Õ (Land
bank) ®”π«π 2.1-2.2 æ—π‰√à ‡ªìπ¡Ÿ≈§à“‚§√ß°“√ª√–¡“≥ 2.7 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. ´÷Ëß à«π„À≠àÕ¬Ÿà„π
‚´π√—µπ“∏‘‡∫»√å„°≈â°—∫‚§√ß°“√‡°à“∑’Ë¥”‡π‘πß“πÕ¬Ÿà ¥—ßπ—ÈπÀ“°ªî¥°“√¢“¬„π‚§√ß°“√‡°à“‰¥â
°Á®– “¡“√∂‡ªî¥‚§√ß°“√µàÕ‡π◊ËÕß‰¥â∑—π∑’ ¢≥–∑’Ëªí®®ÿ∫—π‰¥â´◊ÈÕ∑’Ë¥‘π‡æ‘Ë¡‡µ‘¡„π∑”‡≈„À¡à‡™àπ
“∏√µ—¥„À¡à √—µπ“∏‘‡∫»√å æ√–√“¡ 5 ·≈– æ—≤π“°“√‡æ‘Ë¡‡µ‘¡ ‚¥¬§“¥«à“®– √â“ß‡ªìπ¡Ÿ≈§à“
‚§√ß°“√√«¡∑—Èß∑’Ë¥‘π‡°à“ ·≈– „À¡à ‰¥â Ÿß∂÷ß 3.8 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. ´÷Ëß‡æ’¬ßæÕ„πÕ’° 5 ªïÀπâ“
∫√‘…—∑√à«¡‡µ‘∫‚µ¥’‡µ√’¬¡‡¢â“µ≈“¥œ„πªïπ’È ∫®. °√ÿß‡∑æ∫â“π·≈–∑’Ë¥‘π (Krungthep land) ´÷Ëß
‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑√à«¡∑’Ë PF ∂◊ÕÀÿâπÕ¬Ÿà 30% π—Èπ¡’°“√¢¬“¬µ—«Õ¬à“ß√«¥‡√Á«‚¥¬„πªï 46 ‰¥â‡ªî¥¢“¬
∫â“π‡¥’Ë¬«‚§√ß°“√ √“™æƒ°…å ‡°…µ√π«¡‘π∑√å ¡Ÿ≈§à“ 750 ≈∫. ·≈– ‚§√ß°“√ Exclusive
Multiplex √“¡§”·Àß 250 ≈∫. ·≈– „πªï 47 π’È®–‡ªî¥µ—«Õ’° 3 ‚§√ß°“√ ¡Ÿ≈§à“√«¡ 2.45
æ—π≈∫. ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“„πªï 46 ®–¡’√“¬‰¥â®“° à«π·∫àß°”‰√®“°‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ®”π«π 39.3 ≈∫. (0.06
∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ·≈– 92.4 ≈∫. (0.12 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) „πªï 47 πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß¡’·ºππ”°√ÿß‡∑æ∫â“π
·≈–∑’Ë¥‘π‡¢â“®¥∑–‡∫’¬π„πµ≈“¥œ„πªïπ’È ´÷Ëß®–°àÕ„Àâ‡°‘¥¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ
‚§√ß°“√¢Õß°√ÿß‡∑æ∫â“π·≈–∑’Ë¥‘π
Project
2003
Ratchapleuk-Kaset Navamin
Exclusive Multiplex (Ramkamhaeng)
Total
2004
Ratchapleuk-Sukhumvit 103
Ratchapleuk-Wongwan Petchakasem
Saranrom Ladprao
Total
Future project
Petchabuti Rd.
Sukhumvit Rd.
Rama II Rd.
Source: PF
Syrus
Type
Project value (Btmn)
SDH
SDH
1,000
750
250
SDH
SDH
TH
2,450
800
1,200
450
Condominium
Condominium
SDH
na
na
na
47
PF / PF.BK
●
·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé ·µà√–«—ß·√ß¢“¬√–¬– —Èπ ‡√“‰¥âª√—∫√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
ª≈“¬ªï 47 ®“°‡¥‘¡∑’Ë 22.5 ∫“∑ ≈ß‡ªìπ 20 ∫“∑ µ“¡«‘∏’ DCF
´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ target PE ªï 47 ∑’Ë 12.1 ‡∑à“ ‚¥¬‰¥â≈¥Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ
¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬≈ß®“°§“¥°“√≥å‡¥‘¡ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°°“√·¢àß¢—π∑’Ë¡’·π«‚πâ¡ Ÿß
¢÷Èπ ´÷Ëß√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬„À¡àπ’È „Àâº≈µÕ∫·∑π®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß
40% ‚¥¬®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“ à«π PE ·≈– PBV ªï 46 ∑’Ë
µË”‡æ’¬ß 7.6 ·≈– 2.3 ‡∑à“µ“¡≈”¥—∫ ¢≥–∑’Ë PE-fully diluted ¢Õßªï
46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 12.9 ‡∑à“ ·µà§“¥«à“®–≈¥‡ªìπ 8.5 ‡∑à“„πªï 47 Õ¬à“ß‰√
°Áµ“¡°“√‡¢â“¡“¢Õß≈Ÿ°Àÿâπ 112.4 ≈â“πÀÿâπ (18.6% ¢Õß®”π«πÀÿâπ
ªí®®ÿ∫—π) ´÷Ëß¡’µâπ∑ÿπµË”‡æ’¬ß 10 ∫“∑ πà“®–¡’º≈°√–∑∫µàÕ√“§“µ≈“¥
„π™à«ß —Èπ®÷ßµâÕßÕ“»—¬§«“¡√–¡—¥√–«—ß„π°“√‡¢â“´◊ÈÕ
Syrus
48
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 7.05 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 9.00 ∫“∑
·æ√π¥â“ ®‘«‡«≈√’Ë
PRANDA / PRAN.BK
§“¥®à“¬ªíπº≈ 0.70 ∫“∑ Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß∂÷ß 9.9%
Yr-end
Normalized profit
% growth y-y
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E
EBITDA/shr (Bt)
EV/EBITDA
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
Par (Bt)
2002 9m03 2003E 2004E
324 24.9 361 358
33.7 20.0 11.2 (0.7)
379 20.4 297 358
1.89 0.94 1.31 1.58
(7.5) (27.5) (30.6) 20.6
0.50 0.50 0.70 0.70
7.7 7.3 7.7 9.2
13.3 10.6 10.9 13.5
27.6 19.1 18.1 18.7
0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1
1.85 0.46 1.80 1.79
5.2 8.7 5.3 4.3
2.7 7.6 5.6 4.5
0.7 1.0 1.0 0.8
9.8 7.0 9.5 9.9
200 226 226 226
1
1
1
1
●
●
●
●
●
Contact person:
Research: Nidda Toolcharoen
Tel: 0-2646-9971
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
Õ—≠¡≥’ ·≈–‡§√◊ËÕßª√–¥—∫
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
‰µ√¡“ 4 ®–‡ªìπ‰µ√¡“ ∑’Ë°”‰√¥’∑’Ë ÿ¥...§“¥°”‰√∑—Èßªï 1.33 ∫“∑ µ“¡ª°µ‘·≈â« PRANDA
®–¡’¬Õ¥¢“¬·≈–°”‰√¥’∑’Ë ÿ¥„π‰µ√¡“ 4 ¢Õß·µà≈–ªï ‡π◊ËÕß®“°‡ªìπ™à«ß∑’Ë¡’‡∑»°“≈§√‘ ¡“ µå
·≈–ªï „À¡à ‚¥¬¬Õ¥¢“¬·≈–°”‰√„π™à«ß§√÷ËßÀ≈—ß¢Õßªïµ“¡ª°µ‘®–¡’ —¥ à«πª√–¡“≥ 60%
¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬·≈–°”‰√∑—Èßªï ∑—Èßπ’È „π‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 PRANDA ¡’°”‰√°àÕπ¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“
·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π‡æ‘Ë¡∂÷ß 89% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 2/2546 ·≈–°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ∂÷ß 54% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 2/2546 ®“°°“√ª√–¡“≥°“√≥å·∫∫√–¡—¥√–«—ß SYRUS §“¥«à“°”‰√°àÕπ¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“
·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡≈Á°πâÕ¬„π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ·µà‡π◊ËÕß®“°§à“‡ß‘π∫“∑‡√‘Ë¡∑√ßµ—«®÷ß§“¥«à“®–
¡’¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π≈¥≈ß ®÷ß§“¥«à“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘„π‰µ√¡“ 4/2546 ®–‡æ‘Ë¡ª√–¡“≥
21% ®“°‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ·≈–§“¥«à“°”‰√°àÕπ¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π∑—Èßªï 2546 ®–
Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 361 ≈∫. (1.59 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ) ·≈–°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 297 ≈∫. (1.31 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ)
§“¥Õ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π Ÿß∂÷ß 9.9% SYRUS §“¥«à“ PRANDA ®–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈
”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2546 Õ¬à“ßµË” 0.70 ∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π®“°
√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 7.05 ∫“∑ Ÿß∂÷ß 9.9% ‚¥¬ SYRUS §“¥«à“ PRANDA ®–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈
„πÕ—µ√“ª√–¡“≥ 50% ¢Õß°”‰√ ®“°π‚¬∫“¬¢Õß∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë®–®à“¬‰¡à‡°‘π 60% ¢Õß°”‰√ ·≈–
§“¥«à“®–ª√–°“»®à“¬„π™à«ßµâπªï 2547 ·≈–¢÷Èπ‡§√◊ËÕßÀ¡“¬ XD „π™à«ß‡¥◊Õπ ¡’.§. 2547 ∑—Èßπ’È
”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π 2545 PRANDA ®à“¬ªíπº≈ 0.50 ∫“∑ ·≈–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈æ‘‡»…„π
™à«ß‡¥◊Õπ .§. (XD 22 .§.) ∑’Ëºà“π¡“Õ’° 0.30 ∫“∑
√“¬‰¥â¬—ß§ß‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ·¡â‡ß‘π∫“∑·¢Áß§à“ µ≈“¥À≈—°¢Õß PRANDA Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë À√—∞œ ·≈–¬ÿ‚√ª ‚¥¬
¡’ —¥ à«π√«¡°—πª√–¡“≥ 75% ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬√«¡ ¢≥–∑’Ë¬Õ¥¢“¬„πª√–‡∑»¡’ —¥ à«πµË”°«à“
15% ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬√«¡ ∑—Èßπ’È ”À√—∫°“√ àßÕÕ° PRANDA ®–°”Àπ¥√“§“‡ªìπ‡ß‘π °ÿ≈
¥Õ≈≈à“√å À√—∞œ ´÷Ëß∂÷ß·¡â«à“§à“‡ß‘π¥Õ≈≈à“√å À√—∞œ ®–ÕàÕπ§à“Õ¬à“ß¡“°„πªï 2546 π’È ·µà
PRANDA ¬—ß¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬‡¡◊ËÕ§”π«≥‡ªìπ‡ß‘π∫“∑ „π™à«ß 9 ‡¥◊Õπ·√°¢Õß
ªï 2546 ª√–¡“≥ 4% ·≈–„π‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ™à«ß∑’Ë‡ß‘π∫“∑·¢Áß§à“Õ¬à“ß¡“° Õ—µ√“
°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬‡¡◊ËÕ§”π«≥‡ªìπ‡ß‘π∫“∑Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 0.8%
Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ ·¡â√“§“∑Õß ·≈–‡ß‘π‡æ‘Ë¡ Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ¢Õß PRANDA ‡æ‘Ë¡¡“
Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 39.3% „π™à«ß 9 ‡¥◊Õπ·√°¢Õßªï 2546 ‚¥¬‰µ√¡“ 3/2546 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 39.2% ¢≥–∑’Ëªï
2545 Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 38.5% ∂÷ß·¡â«à“√“§“∑Õß·≈–‡ß‘π´÷Ëß‡ªìπµâπ∑ÿπ¢Õß PRANDA ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ„π™à«ß
∑’Ëºà“π¡“·µà PRANDA ®–∫«°Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ°àÕπ∑’Ë®”°”Àπ¥√“§“¢“¬ ∑”„Àâ “¡“√∂√—°…“
√–¥—∫°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ‰¥â ‚¥¬ PRANDA °≈à“««à“√“§“¡’º≈µàÕ°“√µ—¥ ‘π„®¢Õß≈Ÿ°§â“πâÕ¬°«à“°“√
ÕÕ°·∫∫ ·≈–√–¬–‡«≈“„π°“√ àß¡Õ∫ ‘π§â“
¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π‡°‘¥®“°‡ß‘π∫“∑∑’Ëº—πº«π À“°‡ß‘π∫“∑∑√ßµ—« ®–‰¡à¡’°”‰√À√◊Õ
¢“¥∑ÿπ ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π ”À√—∫¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈–‡ª≈’Ë¬π∑’Ë‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ„π™à«ß 9 ‡¥◊Õπ
·√°¢Õßªï 2546 π—Èπ ‡°‘¥®“°°“√„Àâ‡§√¥‘µ°—∫≈Ÿ°§â“√–¬–‡«≈“ª√–¡“≥ 60 «—π ´÷ËßÀ“°
‡ß‘π∫“∑·¢Áß§à“¢÷Èπ„π™à«ß√–¬–‡«≈“¥—ß°≈à“« PRANDA ®–¡’√“¬°“√¢“¥∑ÿπ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°
‡ª≈’Ë¬π ·µàÀ“°‡ß‘π∫“∑∑√ßµ—« ®–‰¡à¡’°”‰√ À√◊Õ¢“¥∑ÿπ ®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π
49
·æ√π¥â“ ®‘«‡«≈√’Ë
PRANDA / PRAN.BK
●
●
●
●
µ—Èß∫√‘…—∑≈Ÿ°√ÿ°µ≈“¥®‘«‡«≈√’Ë„πª√–‡∑»®’π ‡ªìπ‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ®”π«π 250,000 ‡À√’¬≠¥Õ≈≈“√å
À√—∞ ‚¥¬ PRANDA ‡ªìπºŸâ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„À≠à∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ∑—Èßπ’È „π√–¬–‡√‘Ë¡·√°®–¡’°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ∑’Ë
120,000 ™‘Èπ „™â·√ßß“π®”π«π 60 §π ·≈–§“¥«à“„πªï∑’Ë 9 ®–¡’°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ∂÷ß 700,000
™‘Èπ ·≈–„™â®”π«π·√ßß“π 400 §π ·≈–§“¥º≈µÕ∫·∑π¢Õß‚§√ß°“√ 10.63% µàÕªï µ≈Õ¥
√–¬–‡«≈“ 9 ªï ‚¥¬§“¥«à“®–‡√‘Ë¡¡’°”‰√®“°°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π„πªï∑’Ë 3 §◊Õªï 2549 πÕ°®“°π’È
‡√“¡Õß«à“ °“√≈ß∑ÿπ¥—ß°≈à“«®–‡ªìπ°“√‡ªî¥µ≈“¥°“√§â“‡§√◊ËÕßª√–¥—∫Õ—≠¡≥’ ·∫√π¥åµà“ßÊ
¢Õß PRANDA Ÿà®’π ´÷Ëß¡’ª√–™“°√Õ¬Ÿà®”π«π¡“° √«¡∑—Èß‡ªìπ°“√ √â“ß√“°∞“π¢Õß∫√‘…—∑œ „π
µ≈“¥∑’Ë¡’·π«‚πâ¡¢¬“¬µ—«„π√–¥—∫ Ÿß¢Õß¿Ÿ¡‘¿“§π’È
§“¥Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ‡©≈’Ë¬¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 12.0% „πªï 2547 ®“°º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π„π
™à«ß∑’Ëºà“π¡“ PRANDA ¡’Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ‡©≈’Ë¬¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 10.0% µàÕªïÕ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡
„πªï 2547 ºŸâ∫√‘À“√µ—Èß‡ªÑ“Õ—µ√“°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß¬Õ¥¢“¬Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 12.0% ®“°°“√‡ªî¥µ≈“¥Õ—≠¡≥’
µ—«‡√◊Õπ‡ß‘π„πª√–‡∑»‡¬Õ√¡—π ·≈–ª√–‡∑»Õâß°ƒ… πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß¡’°“√¢¬“¬∞“π≈Ÿ°§â“„π
µ≈“¥Õ—≠¡≥’µ—«‡√◊Õπ∑Õß„πª√–‡∑» À√—∞Õ‡¡√‘°“ ‚¥¬¡’‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ‡æ◊ËÕ¢¬“¬ß“π„πªï 2547 ∑—Èß
‘Èπ®”π«π 150 ≈â“π∫“∑
√“§“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“πªï 2547 ‡∑à“°—∫ 9 ∫“∑ ‚¥¬¡’√–¥—∫‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ P/E ∑’Ë 5.7 ‡∑à“ ·≈–
P/BV 0.97 ‡∑à“ ´÷Ëß√–¥—∫‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ P/E ∑’ËµË”‡æ’¬ß 5.7 ‡∑à“ ‡π◊ËÕß®“°À“°√«¡°“√„™â ‘∑∏‘¢Õß
PRANDA-W1 (173.6 ≈â“πÀπà«¬ √“§“„™â ‘∑∏‘ 2.80 ∫“∑ À¡¥Õ“¬ÿ 2 æ.§. 2550) ®–∑”„Àâ
®”π«πÀÿâπ‡æ‘Ë¡®“° 226 ≈â“πÀÿâπ „πªí®®ÿ∫—π ‡ªìπ 400 ≈â“πÀÿâπ ·≈– ‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ P/E (fully
dilute) ®–‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπª√–¡“≥ 10 ‡∑à“
∏ÿ√°‘®¢Õß ∫¡®. ·æ√π¥â“®‘«‡«≈√’Ë (ª√–‡∑»‰∑¬) ∫√‘…—∑¥”‡π‘π∏ÿ√°‘®À≈—°º≈‘µ·≈–®—¥®”Àπà“¬
‡§√◊ËÕßª√–¥—∫Õ—≠¡≥’∑’Ëµ—«‡√◊Õπ∑”¥â«¬‚≈À–∑Õß§”·≈–‡π◊ÈÕ‡ß‘π‡æ◊ËÕ°“√ àßÕÕ° ‚¥¬¡’ ‚√ßß“π
º≈‘µ 4 ·Ààß Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë ∫“ßπ“ ‚§√“™ ‡«’¬µπ“¡ ·≈– Õ‘π‚¥π’‡´’¬ ·≈–¡’∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë¥”‡π‘π°“√®—¥
®”Àπà“¬ ·≈– µ—«·∑π°“√®”Àπà“¬ µ—ÈßÕ¬Ÿà „πª√–‡∑»∑’Ë‡ªìπ≈Ÿ°§â“ ”§—≠ ‡™àπ À√—∞Õ‡¡√‘°“
Õ—ß°ƒ… ·≈– Ω√—Ëß‡» ªí®®ÿ∫—π ∫√‘…—∑¡’ —¥ à«π√“¬‰¥â®“°°“√ àßÕÕ°Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 85% ¢Õß√“¬‰¥â
∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ·≈–¡’µ≈“¥À≈—° 2 ·ÀàßÕ¬Ÿà∑’Ë À√—∞Õ‡¡√‘°“ ·≈–¬ÿ‚√ª ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ —¥ à«π 75% ¢Õß
¬Õ¥¢“¬ ·≈–¡’¬Õ¥¢“¬„πª√–‡∑»Õ¬ÿà∑’Ë 15%
Syrus
50
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 36.50 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 53.00 ∫“∑
™‘π ·´∑‡∑‘≈‰≈∑å
SATTEL / SATT.BK
IPSTAR ‡ªìπ·À≈àß√“¬‰¥â∑’Ë ”§—≠„πÕπ“§µ
(Bt mn)
Normalized profit
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
% EPS growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA/share (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
Par (Bt)
2002 9m03 2003E 2004E
1,418 721 1,021
613
1,411 818 1,021
613
3.22 1.87 2.33 1.40
(9.7) (29.5) (27.7) (39.9)
0.00 0.00 0.50 0.55
16.4 18.7 18.0 18.8
7.0 4.4
4.4
2.8
19.6 13.8 14.2
7.4
1.8 2.0
2.0
1.9
5.0 4.4
5.7
5.1
11.1 9.3
9.6 10.6
11.3 14.6 15.7 26.1
2.2 2.0
2.0
1.9
0.0 0.0
1.4
1.5
438 438 438
438
10
10
10
10
●
●
●
●
●
Contact person:
Research: Jitra Amornthum
Tel: 0-2646-9966
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
◊ÕË “√
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
§“¥°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ªï 2546 ≈¥≈ß 27.6% ‡√“§“¥«à“º≈ª√–°Õ∫°“√¢Õß SATTEL „π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ®–„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫‰µ√¡“ 3/46 §◊Õ¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ 202.7 ≈â“π∫“∑ ‚¥¬§“¥«à“Õ—µ√“°“√„™â
°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ§àÕπ¢â“ß„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—π ‡π◊ËÕß®“° DOS ¬◊¥‡«≈“°“√‡™à“„™â¥“«‡∑’¬¡µàÕ‰ª®π∂÷ß
‘Èπªï 2546 ∑—Èßπ’È Utilisation Rate ‡©≈’Ë¬¢Õß¥“«‡∑’¬¡∑—Èß 3 ¥«ß ≥ ‘Èπ‰µ√¡“ 3/46 ‡∑à“°—∫
86% πÕ°®“°π’È §“¥«à“µâπ∑ÿπ·≈–§à“„™â®à“¬µà“ßÊ ®–§àÕπ¢â“ß§ß∑’Ë ´÷Ëß∑”„Àâ SATTEL ¡’°”‰√
ÿ∑∏‘ 202.7 ≈â“π∫“∑ ·≈–∑”„Àâ°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘∑—Èßªï 2546 ‡ªìπ 1,020.9 ≈â“π∫“∑ (2.33 ∫“∑/Àÿâπ)
≈¥≈ß 27.6% ®“°ªï 2545
°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß√“¬‰¥â®“°‰∑¬§¡§àÕπ¢â“ß®”°—¥·µà¡—Ëπ§ß Õ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ¢Õß‰∑¬§¡
∑—Èß 3 ¥«ßª√—∫µ—«¥’¢÷ÈπÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß®“° 75% ‘Èπªï 2545 ‡ªìπ 86% ≥ ‘Èπ‰µ√¡“ 3/46
·¡â«à“®–‡°‘¥ªí≠À“°—∫‰∑¬§¡ 3 „π™à«ßµâπªï∑’Ëºà“π¡“´÷Ëß∑”„Àâ®”π«π∑√“π ªÕπ‡¥Õ√å∑’Ë„™âß“π
‰¥â≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õ‡æ’¬ß 5 ™àÕß®“°∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ 14 ™àÕß —≠≠“≥ ·µà∫√‘…—∑°Á ‰¥â√—∫‡ß‘π§à“™¥‡™¬´÷Ëß
“¡“√∂π”‰ª„™â‡ªìπµâπ∑ÿπ„π°“√®—¥À“∑√“π ªÕπ‡¥Õ√å „Àâ≈Ÿ°§â“‰¥âÀ“°¡’≈Ÿ°§â“„À¡à‡¢â“¡“
Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ ¥â«¬Õ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ„πªí®®ÿ∫—π´÷Ëß‡√’¬°‰¥â«à“‡°◊Õ∫‡µÁ¡·≈â« ∑”„Àâ°“√
‡µ‘∫‚µ¢Õß√“¬‰¥â®“°‰∑¬§¡∑—Èß 3 ¥«ß„πÕπ“§µ§àÕπ¢â“ß®”°—¥ ·µà°Á‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥â∑’Ë¡—Ëπ§ß®“°
¡Ÿ≈§à“ —≠≠“ US$244.2 ≈â“π À√◊Õª√–¡“≥ 8,945.0 ≈â“π∫“∑µ≈Õ¥√–¬–‡«≈“ 10 ªï¢â“ßÀπâ“
Lao Telecom ¬—ß§ß®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„ÀâÕ¬à“ßµàÕ‡π◊ËÕß ”À√—∫°‘®°“√„π≈“« Lao Telecom LTC (SATTEL ∂◊Õ 49.0% Õ’° 51% ∂◊Õ‚¥¬√—∞∫“≈≈“«) ‰¥â√—∫ —¡ª∑“π 25 ªï ( ‘Èπ ÿ¥ªï 2564)
‡æ◊ËÕ„Àâ∫√‘°“√‚∑√»—æ∑åæ◊Èπ∞“π ‚∑√»—æ∑å¡◊Õ∂◊Õ ‚∑√»—æ∑å “∏“√≥– ‡æ®‡®Õ√å ·≈–Õ‘π‡µÕ√å‡πÁµ
º≈°”‰√¢Õß∫√‘…—∑¢¬“¬µ—«Õ¬à“ß√«¥‡√Á«µ“¡®”π«πºŸâ „™â∫√‘°“√®π “¡“√∂®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„Àâ°—∫
SATTEL ‰¥âµ—Èß·µàªï 2543 ”À√—∫ªï 2545 ∑’Ëºà“π¡“ SATTEL ‰¥â√—∫‡ß‘πªíπº≈®“° LTC 62.7
≈â“π∫“∑ ‡√“§“¥«à“„πªï 2546 ‡ß‘πªíπº≈‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 66.5 ≈â“π∫“∑ ªí®®ÿ∫—π LTC ¡’∞“π≈Ÿ°§â“
ª√–¡“≥ 2 · π√“¬ §√Õß à«π·∫àßµ≈“¥‡ªìπÕ—π¥—∫ 1 ¥â«¬ —¥ à«π 80% ¢Õßµ≈“¥√«¡
πÕ°®“°π’È SATTEL ¬—ßª√– ∫§«“¡ ”‡√Á®„π°“√‡®√®“¢Õª√—∫Õ—µ√“§à“∫√‘°“√‚¥¬Õ‘ß°—∫‡ß‘π
¥Õ≈≈“√å À√—∞·∑π‡ß‘π°’∫ ‡æ◊ËÕÀ≈’°‡≈’Ë¬ßªí≠À“§à“‡ß‘π°’∫∑’ËÕàÕπµ—« ´÷Ëß‡ªìπº≈¥’°—∫∫√‘…—∑ ∑—Èßπ’È
‡√‘Ë¡„™âµ—Èß·µà«—π∑’Ë 1 æ.¬. 2546
§“¥«à“ Camshin ®–¡’°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥‡ªìπ∫«°‡ªìπªï·√° ”À√—∫°‘®°“√„π°—¡æŸ™“„πªï∑’Ëºà“π¡“
‰¥â√—∫º≈°√–∑∫®“°°“√®≈“®≈„π™à«ßµâπªï ·≈–ªí≠À“°“√‡¡◊Õß∑’Ë¬—ß‰¡à¡—Ëπ§ßπ—° √«¡∑—Èß ¿“æ
‡»√…∞°‘®¿“¬„πª√–‡∑»∑’Ë¬—ßµâÕß„™â‡«≈“øóôπøŸ ¥—ßπ—Èπ §“¥«à“√“¬‰¥â®“° Camshin „πªï 2546
®–‡µ‘∫‚µ‰¡à Ÿßπ—°§◊Õ 17.6% ·µà®–¡’°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥‡ªìπ∫«°‡ªìπªï·√° §‘¥‡ªìπ EBITDA
margin 35.0% ‡∑’¬∫°—∫ LTC ∑’Ë¡’Õ—µ√“ 67.0% ·µà°”‰√∑’Ë ‰¥â®–§◊πÀπ’È‡ªìπ à«π„À≠à ·≈–§“¥
«à“®–‡√‘Ë¡®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ ”À√—∫º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 2547 ‡ªìπµâπ‰ª
‡µ√’¬¡π” CSL ‡¢â“µ≈“¥œ „π‰µ√¡“ 1/47 ´’‡Õ ≈ÁÕ°´Õ‘π‚ø (CSL) ‡ªìπ°“√√«¡°‘®°“√
°—π√–À«à“ß CS Internet °—∫ Loxinfo ‡¡◊ËÕ‡¥◊Õπ ¡’.§. 2546 ªí®®ÿ∫—π∂◊Õ‰¥â«à“ CSL ‡ªìπºŸâ „Àâ
∫√‘°“√Õ‘π‡µÕ√å‡πÁµ√“¬„À≠à∑’Ë ÿ¥„πª√–‡∑»µ“¡ —¥ à«π√“¬‰¥â ªí®®ÿ∫—π¡’®”π«π ≈Ÿ°§â“°«à“
366,000 √“¬ SATTEL ¡’ —¥ à«π°“√∂◊ÕÀÿâπºà“π∫√‘…—∑¬àÕ¬Õ¬Ÿà 50.02% ®ÿ¥·¢Áß¢Õß CSL
πÕ°®“°®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë°“√‡ªìπºŸâπ”µ≈“¥·≈â« ‡§√◊Õ¢à“¬¬—ß„™â¢Õß ADVANC ´÷Ëß¡’ ‚§√ß¢à“¬¡“°
∑’Ë ÿ¥∑—Ë«ª√–‡∑» ·¡â«à“°“√·¢àß¢—π®– Ÿß‚¥¬‡©æ“–„πµ≈“¥Õß§å°√¢π“¥„À≠à ·µà‡¡◊ËÕ∏ÿ√°‘®
Broadband „πª√–‡∑»‰∑¬¢¬“¬µ—«¡“°¢÷Èπ °Á®–‡ªìπ‚Õ°“ ”À√—∫ CSL πÕ°®“°π’È À≈—ß®“°
CSL ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π„πªï∑’Ëºà“π¡“ ∫√‘…—∑æ√âÕ¡∑’Ë®–‡¢â“µ≈“¥À≈—°∑√—æ¬åœ ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“
®–‡ªìπ‰µ√¡“ 1/47
51
™‘π ·´∑‡∑‘≈‰≈∑å
SATTEL / SATT.BK
●
●
●
●
●
CSL ´◊ÈÕ TMC ‡æ◊ËÕ‡ √‘¡∏ÿ√°‘®„πÕπ“§µ °“√∑’Ë CSL ‡¢â“‰ª´◊ÈÕÀÿâπ ∫®°. ‡∑‡≈Õ‘π‚ø ¡’‡¥’¬
(TMC) 63.25% ®“° SHIN 38.25% ·≈– ∫®°. ‘ß‡∑≈ Õ‘π‡µÕ√å·Õ§∑’ø 25% „π√“§“ 11.53
∫“∑/Àÿâπ (æ“√å 10 ∫“∑) √«¡‡ªìπ®”π«π‡ß‘π 506 ≈â“π∫“∑ ®–™à«¬‡ √‘¡·≈–°√–®“¬√“¬‰¥â „Àâ
°—∫ CSL ‡æ√“–∞“π¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈ ¡ÿ¥Àπâ“‡À≈◊Õß “¡“√∂π”¡“æ—≤π“„Àâ‡ªìπ E-Commerce Service
‰¥âÀ≈“¬√Ÿª·∫∫ (E-Directory, E-Advertising) ´÷Ëß®–™à«¬‡ √‘¡∫√‘°“√ Internet Service ¢Õß
CSL ‰¥â ·≈–™à«¬„π°“√‡¢â“∂÷ßºŸ∫â √‘‚¿§√“¬¬àÕ¬‰¥âß“à ¬ ·À≈àß¢Õß‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„π§√—ßÈ π’®È –¡“®“°°“√°Ÿâ
·≈–‡¡◊ÕË ∫√‘…∑— ‰¥â√∫— ‡ß‘π®“°°“√°√–®“¬Àÿπâ IPO ·≈â«®–π”¡“™”√–§◊πÀπ’∑È ß—È À¡¥ ´÷ßË ®–∑”„Àâ CSL
°≈“¬‡ªìπ∫√‘…—∑ª≈Õ¥Àπ’ÈÀ√◊Õ¡’πâÕ¬¡“°
§“¥ TMC °”‰√ªï≈– 180 - 200 ≈â“π∫“∑ TMC ‰¥â√—∫ —¡ª∑“π®“° ∑»∑. ‡ªìπ‡«≈“ 10 ªï
(2539 - 2548) „π°“√®—¥æ‘¡æå ¡ÿ¥Àπâ“‡À≈◊Õß·≈–Àπâ“¢“«∑—Ë«ª√–‡∑» √“¬‰¥âÀ≈—° 90% ¢Õß
TMC ¡“®“°°“√¢“¬æ◊Èπ∑’Ë ‚¶…≥“„π ¡ÿ¥Àπâ“‡À≈◊Õß ‚¥¬¡’√“¬‰¥âªï≈–‰¡àµË”°«à“ 700 ≈â“π∫“∑
∑’Ëºà“π¡“ TMC ¡’º≈¢“¥∑ÿπ¡“‚¥¬µ≈Õ¥‡æ√“–µâÕß®à“¬ à«π·∫àß√“¬‰¥â 200 ≈â“π∫“∑/ªï ·≈–
¡’µâπ∑ÿπ„π°“√®—¥æ‘¡æå ¡ÿ¥Àπâ“¢“«Õ’° 200 ≈â“π∫“∑/ªï ·µàπ—∫µ—Èß·µàµâπªï 2547 ‡ªìπµâπ‰ª
TMC ‰¡àµâÕß®à“¬ à«π·∫àß√“¬‰¥â·≈–‰¡àµâÕß®—¥æ‘¡æå ¡ÿ¥Àπâ“¢“« ®–‡À≈◊Õ‡æ’¬ß§à“„™â®à“¬„π
°“√®—¥∑”∞“π¢âÕ¡Ÿ≈ 5 ≈â“π∫“∑/ªï ®÷ß∑”„Àâµâπ∑ÿπ≈¥≈ß∑—π∑’ 395 ≈â“π∫“∑ ·≈– √â“ß°”‰√
‰¥â∑—π∑’ „πªï 2547 ´÷Ëß‡√“§“¥«à“®–¡’°”‰√ªï≈–ª√–¡“≥ 180 - 200 ≈â“π∫“∑ À√◊Õ§‘¥‡ªìπ 0.26
- 0.29 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß SATTEL (§‘¥µ“¡ —¥ à«π∑’Ë∂◊Õ§◊Õ 63.25%)
iPSTAR ‡ªìπ·À≈àß√“¬‰¥â∑’Ë ”§—≠„πÕπ“§µ iPSTAR ‡ªìπ¥“«‡∑’¬¡∑’Ë¡’¢π“¥„À≠à°«à“‰∑¬§¡
∑—Èß 3 ¥«ß√«¡°—π ‚¥¬¡’¢π“¥ (Capacity) 40 °‘Í°°–‰∫µå (40,000 ‡¡°°–∫‘µ) ‡À¡“–
”À√—∫°“√„™âß“π Broadband ªí®®ÿ∫—πµ—«¥“«‡∑’¬¡ √â“ß‡ √Á®‡√’¬∫√âÕ¬·≈â« ·≈–Õ¬Ÿà „π¢—Èπ
∑¥ Õ∫√–∫∫µà“ßÊ ∫√‘…—∑¬—ß‰¡à “¡“√∂°”Àπ¥«—π∑’Ë®–¬‘ß¥“«‡∑’¬¡¢÷Èπ Ÿà«ß‚§®√‰¥â ‡æ√“–µâÕß
¢÷ÈπÕ¬Ÿà°—∫§«“¡ ”‡√Á®¢Õß°“√∑¥ Õ∫ Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡ ‡√“§“¥«à“√“¬‰¥â®“° iPSTAR ®–‡√‘Ë¡‡¢â“
¡“„π„π™à«ß§√÷ËßªïÀ≈—ßªï 2547 ‚¥¬µ—Èß ¡¡µ‘∞“π°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ 10% „πªï·√° À√◊Õ§‘¥
‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥âª√–¡“≥ US$64 ≈â“π ´÷Ëß‡æ’¬ßæÕ∑’Ë®–∑”„Àâ iPSTAR ‰¡à¢“¥∑ÿπ„πªï·√° ·µàµâπ∑ÿπ
§à“„™â®à“¬·≈–§à“‡ ◊ËÕ¡∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ °Á¡“°æÕ∑’Ë®–©ÿ¥º≈ª√–°Õ∫°“√¢Õß∑—Èß°≈ÿà¡≈¥≈ß∂÷ß 39.9%
„πªï 2547
§“¥ Net D/E 2.0 ‡∑à“·¡âÕ¬Ÿà„π™à«ß≈ß∑ÿπ ªí®®ÿ∫—π SATTEL ™”√–§◊π‡ß‘π°Ÿâ∑’Ë‡°‘¥®“°¥“«‡∑’¬¡
¥«ßªí®®ÿ∫π— À¡¥·≈â« ‡ß‘π°Ÿ∑â ¡’Ë Õ’ ¬Ÿ‡à ªìπ‡ß‘π°Ÿ∑â ‡’Ë °‘¥®“° iPSTAR ´÷ßË ¡’®”π«πª√–¡“≥ US$330 ≈â“π
§“¥«à“ —¥ à«π Net D/E ªï 2547 ®–Õ¬Ÿà„π√–¥—∫ 2.0 ‡∑à“„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫ªí®®ÿ∫—π ·≈–∑”„Àâ¡’¿“√–
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®à“¬ªï≈–ª√–¡“≥ 250 ≈â“π∫“∑ ‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡∑à“µ—«®“°ªï°àÕπ ·µà EBITDA ∑’Ë§“¥«à“®–
∑”‰¥âªï≈– 2 - 3 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ ®÷ß‡æ’¬ßæÕ°—∫‡ß‘πµâπ·≈–¥Õ°‡∫’È¬∑’Ë¡’®”π«π 1.8 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑/ªï
®–‡ÀÁπ‰¥â«à“ ¿“æ§≈àÕß∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà„π‡°≥±å¥’·¡â«à“®–Õ¬Ÿà „π™à«ß¢Õß°“√≈ß∑ÿπ
‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ªï 2547 ‡∑à“°—∫ 53.00 ∫“∑ SATTEL ‰¡à „™àÀÿâπ∑’Ë¡’√“§“∂Ÿ°À“°æ‘®“√≥“„π·ßà PE
‡æ√“–§à“ PE ªï 2547 ®– Ÿß∂÷ß 26.1 ‡∑à“‡π◊ËÕß®“°‡ªìπªï·√°¢Õß°“√„Àâ∫√‘°“√ iPSTAR ·µà
‡¡◊ËÕª√–‡¡‘π¡Ÿ≈§à“°‘®°“√¢Õß¥“«‡∑’¬¡∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ 4 ¥«ßµ“¡«‘∏’°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥ (DCF) ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ«‘∏’∑’Ë
‡À¡“– ¡¡“°°«à“ ‚¥¬„ÀâÕ—µ√“ à«π≈¥ (WACC) 9.5% ®–‰¥â¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿâπ‡∑à“°—∫ 53.00 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬¥—ß°≈à“« Ÿß°«à“√“§“µ≈“¥ªí®®ÿ∫—πÕ¬Ÿà 45.2% ®÷ß·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé
Syrus
52
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 36.75 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 48.00 ∫“∑
™‘π §Õ√åªÕ‡√™—Ëπ å
SHIN / SHIN.BK
¡Ÿ≈§à“ NAV ‡∑à“°—∫ 48 ∫“∑ ... ¿“æ§≈àÕß Ÿß §«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ßµË”
(Bt mn)
Normalized profit
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
% EPS growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA/share (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
PER (x)
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
Par (Bt)
2002
4,788
5,218
1.80
87.3
0.50
9.1
10.3
19.8
0.2
0.8
15.3
20.4
4.0
1.4
2,937
10
9m03
7,782
7,782
2.65
110.4
0.75
10.5
17.8
33.7
0.02
0.6
9.4
10.4
3.5
2.0
2,937
1
2003E 2004E
9,495 8,696
9,495 8,696
3.22 2.95
79.3 (8.4)
1.20 1.25
11.1 12.8
18.3 15.6
29.1 23.1
0.03 0.01
0.7
0.9
9.0
9.6
11.4 12.4
3.3
2.9
3.3
3.4
2,945 2,945
1
1
●
●
°“√≈ß∑ÿπ„À¡àµàÕ¬Õ¥∏ÿ√°‘®‡¥‘¡‰¥â¥’ °“√√à«¡≈ß∑ÿπ„π∏ÿ√°‘® “¬°“√∫‘πµË”·≈–°“√∑”∏ÿ√°‘® ‘π
‡™◊ËÕ à«π∫ÿ§§≈„π™à«ß∑’Ëºà“π¡“ ‡ªìπ°“√°√–®“¬§«“¡‡ ’Ë¬ß·≈–∫√‘À“√æÕ√åµ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ∑’Ëªí®®ÿ∫—π
√“¬‰¥âÀ≈—°¬—ßÕ¬Ÿà∑’Ë “¬∏ÿ√°‘®‚∑√§¡π“§¡ ¢≥–‡¥’¬«°—π°Á‡ªìπ°“√µàÕ¬Õ¥∏ÿ√°‘® ‡æ√“–∑—Èß∏ÿ√°‘®
„À¡à·≈–∏ÿ√°‘®‡¥‘¡ “¡“√∂‡Õ◊ÕÈ ª√–‚¬™πå„Àâ·°à°π— ·≈–°—π‰¥â °≈à“«§◊Õªí®®ÿ∫π— ADVANC “¡“√∂
‡¢â“∂÷ß≈Ÿ°§â“‰¥â∂÷ß 13 ≈â“π√“¬ ‚¥¬„™â‡∑§‚π‚≈¬’ ‚∑√»—æ∑å¡◊Õ∂◊Õ‡ªìπ ◊ËÕ°≈“ß‡™◊ËÕ¡µàÕ°“√®Õßµ—Î«
“¬°“√∫‘π À√◊Õ„Àâ ‘∑∏‘æ‘‡»…¥â“π ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∫ÿ§§≈ πÕ°®“°π’È „πÕπ“§µ¬—ß¡’ ‚Õ°“ ∑’Ë SHIN ®–
π”∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡àÊ ‡™àπ‚√ß·√¡À√◊Õ°“√∑àÕß‡∑’Ë¬«‡¢â“¡“‡ √‘¡∏ÿ√°‘®∑’Ë¡’Õ¬Ÿà
√“§“Àÿâπ¬—ßµË”°«à“ NAV ªí®®ÿ∫—πÕ¬Ÿà 18.1% ®“°√“§“µ≈“¥ªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß ADVANC SATTEL
·≈– ITV ∑”„Àâ¡Ÿ≈§à“ ‘π∑√—æ¬å¢Õß SHIN ‡∑à“°—∫ 132,176 ≈â“π∫“∑ (42.13 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß
SHIN) ·µàÀ“°‡∑’¬∫°—∫ Market Cap. ¢Õß SHIN ªí®®ÿ∫—π∑’Ë 108,241 ∫“∑ ®–‡ÀÁπ«à“√“§“
µ≈“¥¢Õß SHIN ¬—ßµË”°«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“ ‘π∑√—æ¬åª®í ®ÿ∫π— ∑’¬Ë ß— ‰¡à√«¡∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡à∑‡’Ë æ‘ßË ‡¢â“‰ª≈ß∑ÿπÕ¬Ÿà 18.1%
‚¥¬¡Ÿ≈§à“‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„πæÕ√åµ¢Õß SHIN À≈—°Ê ¡“®“°°‘®°“√‚∑√»—æ∑å¡◊Õ∂◊ÕÀ√◊Õ ADVANC ´÷Ëß
¡’πÈ”Àπ—°¡“°∑’Ë ÿ¥∂÷ß 80.7% ¢Õß¡Ÿ≈§à“‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ∑—ÈßÀ¡¥ ¢≥–∑’Ë¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß ITV §‘¥‡ªìπ 13.6%
·≈– SATTEL ‡∑à“°—∫ 6.2% ¥—ßπ—πÈ °“√‡§≈◊ÕË π‰À«¢Õß√“§“Àÿπâ ADVANC ®÷ß¡’πÈ”Àπ—°°—∫ SHIN
Õ¬à“ß¡“° ‚¥¬∑ƒ…Æ’·≈â«‡¡◊ÕË ADVANC ∫«°À√◊Õ≈∫ 1 ∫“∑ ®–∑”„Àâ√“§“Àÿπâ SHIN ‡ª≈’¬Ë π·ª≈ß
0.40 ∫“∑
NAV ∑’Ë§”π«≥®“°√“§“µ≈“¥¢ÕßÀÿâπ„πæÕ√åµ¢Õß SHIN ·≈–¬—ß‰¡à√«¡∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡à
ADVANC
SATTEL
ITV
Total value
Net debt (3Q03)
SHIN’s NAV
Per SHIN share
●
Contact person:
Research: Jitra Amornthum
Tel: 0-2646-9966
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
◊ÕË “√
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
●
%owned by SHIN
43.05%
51.53%
53.22%
Market price
84.50
36.50
21.70
Value to SHIN (Btm)
106,767
8,229
17,941
132,937
761
132,176
41.51
¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß ADVANC ∑’Ë SHIN ∂◊Õ‡∑à“°—∫ 40 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß SHIN ‡√“§”π«≥√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬
¢Õß ADVANC ‰¥â 95.00 ∫“∑ (PE 15 ‡∑à“) ´÷ËßÀ¡“¬§«“¡«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“ ‘π∑√—æ¬å∑’Ë SHIN ∂◊Õ„π
ADVANC ‡∑à“°—∫ 120,034 ≈â“π∫“∑ À√◊Õ§‘¥‡ªìπ 40 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß SHIN ¥—ßπ—Èπ ®–‡ÀÁπ«à“
√“§“Àÿâπªí®®ÿ∫—π¢Õß SHIN ∑’Ë 36.75 ∫“∑¬—ßµË”°«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß ADVANC ‡æ’¬ßÀ≈—°∑√—æ¬å‡¥’¬«
´÷Ëß¬—ß‰¡à ‰¥â –∑âÕπ∂÷ß°“√≈ß∑ÿπÕ◊ËπÊ π—∫‰¥â«à“√“§“Àÿâπ SHIN ªí®®ÿ∫—πµË”°«à“¡Ÿ≈§à“∑’Ë§«√®–‡ªìπ
Õ¬à“ß¡“°
∏ÿ√°‘® Low cost airline √â“ß¡Ÿ≈§à“‰¥â‰¡à¡“°π—°„πªï·√° SHIN ‰¥â√à«¡≈ß∑ÿπ„π Air Asia
‚¥¬„™â‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ 201 ≈â“π∫“∑‡æ◊ËÕ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ„π —¥ à«π 50.0% ‚¥¬ Air Asia ‰¥â‡√‘Ë¡‡ªî¥∫√‘°“√
‡¡◊ËÕ«—π∑’Ë 3 °.æ. 2547 ¥â«¬®”π«π‡§√◊ËÕß∫‘π 2 ≈”„π™à«ß·√° ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 10 ≈”¿“¬„π
‘Èπªïπ’È ‡§√◊ËÕß∫‘π·µà≈–≈”¡’¢π“¥ 148 ∑’Ëπ—Ëß ·≈–„Àâ∫√‘°“√∫‘π¿“¬„πª√–‡∑» 4 ‡ âπ∑“ß§◊Õ
°√ÿß‡∑æ-‡™’¬ß„À¡à °√ÿß‡∑æ-¿Ÿ‡°Áµ °√ÿß‡∑æ-À“¥„À≠à ·≈–°√ÿß‡∑æ-¢Õπ·°àπ √«¡ 8 ‡∑’Ë¬«∫‘π/
«—π„π™à«ß·√° Õ—µ√“§à“‚¥¬ “√ 900 - 1,200 ∫“∑/‡∑’Ë¬« ·≈–ª√–¡“≥ 20% ¢Õß·µà≈–‡∑’Ë¬«
∫‘π®–¡’µ—Î«√“§“∂Ÿ° 99 ∫“∑ ‡√“ª√–‡¡‘π«à“®–¡’°“√„™âÕ—µ√“°“√„™â°”≈—ß°“√º≈‘µ 60% „πªï·√°
53
™‘π §Õ√åªÕ‡√™—Ëπ å
SHIN / SHIN.BK
●
●
●
´÷Ëß‡∑à“°—∫«à“„Àâ∫√‘°“√‰¥â 8.4 · π§π ´÷Ëß§“¥«à“®–∑”„Àâ¡’√“¬‰¥â 866.9 ≈â“π∫“∑„πªï·√°
”À√—∫µâπ∑ÿπ°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π·≈–µâπ∑ÿπ∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π§àÕπ¢â“ßµË” µâπ∑ÿπÀ≈—°Ê §◊Õ§à“πÈ”¡—π·≈–
§à“‡™à“‡§√◊ËÕß∫‘π ‡√“ª√–‡¡‘πÕ—µ√“°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘µàÕ¬Õ¥¢“¬ (Net Profit Margin) ‰«â∑’Ë 10% ´÷Ëß
À¡“¬§«“¡«à“ Air Asia ®–¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ 58.7 ≈â“π∫“∑ ·≈–À“°°”Àπ¥„Àâ∫√‘…—∑¥—ß°≈à“«
´◊ÈÕ¢“¬∑’Ë 6 ‡∑à“¢Õß°”‰√ ´÷Ëß„°≈â‡§’¬ß°—∫ “¬°“√∫‘πÕ◊ËπÊ ∑’Ë´◊ÈÕ¢“¬∑’Ë PE 5 - 8 ‡∑à“ ¡Ÿ≈§à“
¢Õß‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ„π∏ÿ√°‘®π’È®–§‘¥‡ªìπ 176.2 ≈â“π∫“∑„πªï 2547 À√◊Õ 0.06 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ¢Õß SHIN
∏ÿ√°‘® ‘π‡™◊ËÕ à«π∫ÿ§§≈¡’»—°¬¿“æ„π°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß °“√‡¢â“√à«¡∑ÿπ°—∫ DBS ®“° ‘ß§‚ª√å
®—¥µ—Èß∫√‘…—∑ ·§ªªîµÕ≈ ‚Õ‡§ ®”°—¥ ‡æ◊ËÕª√–°Õ∫∏ÿ√°‘®„Àâ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ à«π∫ÿ§§≈ (Consumer
Finance) ‡™àπ°“√„Àâ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ‰¡à¡’À≈—°ª√–°—π à«π∫ÿ§§≈ °“√„Àâ ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∫—µ√‡§√¥‘µ °“√„Àâ
‘π‡™◊ËÕ‡æ◊ËÕ°“√‡™à“´◊ÈÕ ‘π§â“µà“ßÊ ‚¥¬∫√‘…—∑¥—ß°≈à“«¡’∑ÿπ®¥∑–‡∫’¬π 1,000 ≈â“π∫“∑ (æ“√å 10
∫“∑) SHIN ∂◊ÕÀÿâπ 60% À√◊Õ 600 ≈â“π∫“∑ ·≈– DBS ∂◊Õ 40% ‡π◊ËÕß®“°∏ÿ√°‘® ‘π‡™◊ËÕ
à«π∫ÿ§§≈¡’»—°¬¿“æ„π°“√‡µ‘∫‚µ Ÿß®“°°“√¢¬“¬µ—«¢Õß°“√„™â®à“¬¿“§‡Õ°™π ·≈–°“√∑’Ë
ADVANC ¡’∞“π≈Ÿ°§â“Õ¬Ÿà 13 ≈â“π√“¬π—∫‡ªìπ®ÿ¥‰¥â‡ª√’¬∫„π°“√‡¢â“∞“π∂÷ß≈Ÿ°§â“
¿“æ§≈àÕß∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π Ÿß π—∫µ—Èß·µàªï 2546 ∑’Ë ADVANC ‡√‘Ë¡™–≈Õ°“√≈ß∑ÿπ∑”„Àâ¡’°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥‡ªìπ∫«°‡ªìπªï·√° ·≈–®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈„πÕ—µ√“ª√–¡“≥ 60% ¢Õß°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ SHIN
®÷ß‰¥â√—∫‡ß‘πªíπº≈®“° ADVANC ªï≈–ª√–¡“≥ 4.7 - 5.0 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ ¢≥–∑’Ë SHIN ‡Õß
®à“¬‡ß‘πªíπº≈ªï≈–ª√–¡“≥ 3.5 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ (Õ—µ√“º≈µÕ∫·∑πµàÕªï 3.3% - 3.5%) ∑”„Àâ
‡À≈◊Õ‡ß‘π ¥·πàπÕπªï≈– 1.1 - 1.4 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ ‡¡◊ËÕ√«¡°—∫‡ß‘π ¥∑’Ë¡’Õ¬Ÿà„π¡◊Õªí®®ÿ∫—π ∑”„Àâ
§“¥«à“ SHIN ®–‡À≈◊Õ‡ß‘π ¥„π·µà≈–ªï ‰¡àµË”°«à“ 3 æ—π≈â“π∫“∑ ”À√—∫∏ÿ√°‘® Air Asia
·≈– Capital OK ∑’Ë„™â‡ß‘π≈ß∑ÿπ∑—ßÈ À¡¥„π‡∫◊ÕÈ ßµâπ 800 ≈â“π∫“∑ §‘¥‡ªìπ‡æ’¬ß 26% ¢Õß‡ß‘π ¥
∑’Ë¡’ À“°‰¡àª√– ∫§«“¡ ”‡√Á® ‡™◊ËÕ«à“®–‰¡à°√–∑∫°—∫∞“π–∑“ß°“√‡ß‘π·≈–·ºπ°“√®à“¬
‡ß‘πªíπº≈¢Õß SHIN
NAV ‡¡◊ËÕ√«¡∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡à‡∑à“°—∫ 48.00 ∫“∑ πÕ°‡Àπ◊Õ®“°∏ÿ√°‘®‚∑√§¡π“§¡·≈–∫—π‡∑‘ß∑’Ë
¡’Õ¬Ÿà ·≈–√«¡¡Ÿ≈§à“¢Õß∏ÿ√°‘® “¬°“√∫‘πµË”·≈– ‘π‡™◊ËÕ∫ÿ§§≈‡¢â“¡“ √“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬¢Õß SHIN
®–‡∑à“°—∫ 48.00 ∫“∑ Ÿß°«à“√“§“µ≈“¥ªí®®ÿ∫—π 30.6% πÕ°‡Àπ◊Õ‰ª®“°‡ß‘πªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π
ª√–¡“≥ªï≈– 3.3% - 3.5% ®÷ß·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé
NAV ¢Õß SHIN ∑’Ë√«¡∏ÿ√°‘®„À¡à∑’Ë‡æ‘Ëß‡¢â“‰ª≈ß∑ÿπ
ADVANC
SATTEL
ITV
Air Asia
Capital OK
Total value
Net debt (3Q03)
SHINûs NAV
Per SHIN share
%owned by SHIN
43.05%
51.53%
43.00%
Target price
95.00
53.00
26.00
50.00%
60.00%
Value to SHIN (Btm)
120,034
11,948
17,441
176
1,600
151,200
761
150,439
47.83
Syrus
54
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 2547 : 4.72 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 2547 : 6.90 ∫“∑
»ÿ¿“≈—¬
SPALI / SPAL.BK
§“¥°”‰√ªï 46 æÿàß 630% ®à“¬ªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 8.7%
(Bt mn)
Normalized profit
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
EPS (Bt)- fully diluted
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA/shr (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
Norm PER (x)
Norm PER (x)-fully diluted
PBV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
No. of share (fully dilute)
Par (Bt)
2002 9M03 2003E 2004E
141 379 1,026 805
949 460 1,226 895
1.46 0.67 1.68 1.23
0.73 0.35 0.94 0.69
(87.7) (23.8) 29.2 (27.0)
0.00 0.00 0.38 0.28
2.76 3.41 4.31 5.49
16.6 11.2 20.3 13.7
67.8 32.5 49.7 25.0
1.9
1.2 0.3
0.3
0.85 0.67 1.62 1.66
3.1
9.8 2.8
1.6
12.2
6.0 3.2
4.3
24.4 11.4 5.6
7.6
1.0
1.3 1.0
0.8
0.0
0.0 8.5
5.8
650 689 729 729
1299 1,299 1299 1299
1
1
1
1
●
●
●
●
Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ¬Õ¥‚Õπæÿàß àßº≈ªï 46 °”‰√ª°µ‘‡µ‘∫‚µ°«à“ 630% SYRUS §“¥«à“„πªï 46
SPALI ®–¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ 1.2 æ—π≈∫. (1.68 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ‡µ‘∫‚µ 29% ®“°ªï 45 ¢≥–∑’ËÀ“°‰¡à
√«¡°”‰√®“°√“¬°“√æ‘‡»…§◊Õ°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È 200 ≈∫. ·≈â«®–¡’°”‰√ª°µ‘ 1.0 æ—π≈∫.
(1.4 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) ®“°°“√‚Õπ∑’Ë‡¢â“¡“‡ªìπ®”π«π¡“°∂÷ß 1.9 æ—π≈∫. „π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ‚¥¬
‡©æ“–®“°‚§√ß°“√ SUPALI Park 3 ∑’Ë √â“ß‡ √Á®„π‰µ√¡“ 4/46
Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ Ÿß®“°§Õπ‚¥¡’‡π’¬¡ „π‰µ√¡“ 4/46 π’È§“¥«à“Õ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ¢Õß SPALI
®– Ÿß∂÷ß 38.8% ∑—Èßπ’È‡π◊ËÕß®“°°“√√—∫√Ÿâ√“¬‰¥â∂÷ßª√–¡“≥ 45% ¢Õß√“¬‰¥â®“°°“√¢“¬®“°
‚§√ß°“√§Õπ‚¥¡’‡π’¬¡ SUPALI Park 3 ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ‚§√ß°“√‡°à“∑’Ë¡’µâπ∑ÿπµË” ¢≥–∑’Ë¡’°“√ª√—∫
√“§“¢÷Èπ¡“‚¥¬µ≈Õ¥ àßº≈„ÀâÕ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ Ÿß°«à“‚§√ß°“√ª°µ‘
§“¥®à“¬ªíπº≈ Ÿß...Õ—µ√“ªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π 8.7% ‡√“§“¥«à“ SPALI ®– “¡“√∂®à“¬ªíπº≈®“°
º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“πªï 46 „πÕ—µ√“ 0.38 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ®“° ¡¡µ‘∞“π dividend payout ratio ∑’Ë
25% µË”°«à“π‚¬∫“¬ªíπº≈¢Õß∫√‘…—∑∑’Ë°”Àπ¥‰«â ‰ ¡à‡°‘π 40% ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“‡ß‘πªíπº≈
µÕ∫·∑π∑’Ë Ÿß∂÷ß 8.7% ®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π ‚¥¬À“°æ‘®“√≥“∂÷ß°“√ªíπº≈µ“¡π‚¬∫“¬∑’Ë 40%
·≈â«®–‰¥â‡ß‘πªíπº≈µàÕÀÿâπ Ÿß∂÷ß 0.67 ∫“∑ ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπÕ—µ√“º≈µÕ∫·∑π®“°ªí®®ÿ∫—π∂÷ß 15.6%
‡ªî¥‚§√ß°“√„À¡à 5 ‚§√ß°“√ªï 47 ‡√‘Ë¡°≈—∫¡“∑”Õ“§“√ ”π—°ß“π „πªï 47 π’È SPALI ¡’·ºπ
‡ªî¥‚§√ß°“√„À¡à 5 ‚§√ß°“√‡ªìπ‚§√ß°“√∑’ËÕ¬ŸàÕ“»—¬√–¥—∫°≈“ß 4 ‚§√ß°“√ ¡Ÿ≈§à“√«¡ 3.45
æ—π≈∫. „π¢≥–∑’Ë¡’·ºπ®–π”‚§√ß°“√ SUPALI Grand tower ´÷Ëß‡ªìπ‚§√ß°“√∑’ËÀ¬ÿ¥‰ª„π
™à«ß«‘°ƒµ‡»√…∞°‘®¡“æ—≤π“µàÕ¡Ÿ≈§à“‚§√ß°“√ 2.5 æ—π≈∫.
Quarterly forecast
(Bt mn)
Total revenues
Total expenses
EBIT
Interest expense
Net profit
Normalize profit
EPS
ROE
BV/share
# shares
Gross mar (%)
EBITDA mar (%)
Net profit mar (%)
Net D/E
4Q02 3Q03 4Q04E % q-q % y-y
739 526 1,958 272.3 164.8
392 362 1,278 253.1 226.3
348 164 680 314.7 95.6
30 10
9 (10.1) (69.1)
346 188 767 307.7 121.7
167 128 669 424.4 300.3
0.53 0.28 1.05 281.7 1,875.9
81.0 32.7 108.6
2.8 3.4
4.3
650 683 729
31.7 37.1 38.8
49.6 33.9 35.1
48.4 37.7 39.3
1.6 0.9
0.3
New project for 2004
Type
Residential project
Sathorn suanplu
Asoke
Srinakarin
On-nuch
Total housing and condo
Office
Grand tower
Condo
Condo
TH
SDH
970
Office
Unit Project value Avg price
(Btmn)
(Btmn)
307
358
129
176
3,452
sq.m.
40,000
Launch
Complete
(E)
2Q05
2Q05
2Q05
4Q05
840
1,365
316
931
3.6
2.7
3.8
2.4
5.3
1Q04
2Q04
2Q04
3Q04
2,500
3Q04
4Q05
Source: SPALI, Syrus estimates
●
Contact person:
Research: Satit Buachoo
Tel: 0-2646-9963
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
§“¥°”‰√ªï 47 ≈¥≈ß ·µà PE ¬—ßµË”·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé ®“°¬Õ¥‚Õπ∑’Ë‡°‘¥¢÷Èπ Ÿß„π‰µ√¡“ 4/46
π—Èπ‡ªìπ°“√‚Õπ∑’Ë√«¥‡√Á«°«à“∑’Ë§“¥ àßº≈„Àâ „πªï 47 ¬Õ¥¢“¬®–≈¥≈ß®“°§“¥°“√≥å‡¥‘¡ ¥—ßπ—Èπ
®÷ß∑”„Àâ°”‰√ª°µ‘ ”À√—∫ªï 47 ≈¥≈ß‡ªìπ 805 ≈∫. (1.2 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ) Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡À“°§‘¥
‡ªìπ PE 04 ®“°√“§“ªí®®ÿ∫—π®–µË”‡æ’¬ß 3.5 ‡∑à“ ¢≥–∑’Ë PE-fully diluted µË”‡æ’¬ß 7 ‡∑à“
πÕ°®“°π’ÈÕ—µ√“ à«π PBV ∑—Èßªï 03 ·≈– ªï 04 °ÁµË”‡æ’¬ß 1.0 ‡∑à“ ·≈– 0.8 ‡∑à“µ“¡≈”¥—∫
ª√–°Õ∫°—∫Õ—µ√“ªíπº≈µÕ∫·∑π∑’Ë Ÿß ®÷ß§ß§”·π–π” ç´◊ÈÕé ‚¥¬¡’√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ª≈“¬ªï 47 ∑’Ë
6.9 ∫“∑ ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ PE-fully diluted ªï 47 ∑’Ë 10 ‡∑à“
55
BUY
√“§“ªî¥ 6 °.æ. 47: 37.50 ∫“∑
√“§“‡ªÑ“À¡“¬ ‘Èπªï 2547: 52 - 58 ∫“∑
∑’æ’ ‰Õ ‚æ≈’π
TPIPL / TPIPL.BK
‰¥â√—∫º≈¥’®“°Õÿµ “À°√√¡«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß ·≈–ªî‚µ√‡§¡’„π™à«ß¢“¢÷Èπ
(Bt mn)
Norm profit
Net profit
EPS (Bt)
Normalized EPS (Bt)
% growth y-y
Dividend (Bt)
BV/share (Bt)
ROA (%)
ROE (%)
Net D/E (x)
EBITDA
EBITDA/share (Bt)
EV/EBITDA (x)
P/E (x)
P/Normalize EPS (x)
P/BV (x)
Dividend yield (%)
YE no. of shares
Par (Bt)
2001 2002 2003 2004E
(1,647.4) (1,235.8) 2,850.4 4,286.7
2,522.1 (1,490.8) 4,783.3 8,059.5
5.0 (2.9) 9.4 10.0
(3.2) (2.4) 5.6 5.3
na (159.1) nm 68.5
30.0 24.8 43.6 51.3
3.6 (2.3) 6.7 10.2
16.6 (11.8) 21.6 19.5
3.5
4.2 2.2 0.7
3,365.0 3,046.1 6,208.3 7,662.2
6.6
6.0 12.2 9.5
23.6 25.9 12.0 9.2
10.5
nm 5.5 5.2
nm
nm 9.3 9.8
1.7
2.1 1.2 1.0
507.5 507.5 507.5 807.5
10
10 10 10
PO details
ºŸâÕÕ°À≈—°∑√—æ¬å
®”π«πÀÿâπ PO (≈â“πÀÿâπ)
√“§“‡ πÕ¢“¬ (∫“∑)
¡Ÿ≈§à“Àÿâπ∑’Ëµ√“‰«â (∫“∑)
√–¬–°“√®Õß´◊ÕÈ
«—π∑’Ë‡√‘Ë¡∑”°“√´◊ÈÕ¢“¬
ºŸâ®—¥°“√°“√®—¥®”Àπà“¬·≈–
√—∫ª√–°—π°“√®—¥®”Àπà“¬
∫¡®. ∑’æ’‰Õ ‚æ≈’π
300.00
37.00
10.00
15, 16, 19 ¡.§. 2547
26 ¡.§. 2547
∫≈. ∑‘ ‚°â
●
°àÕπª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß
À≈—ßª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß
®à“¬™”√–‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 5,000 ≈∫.
‡ß‘πµâπ§ß‡À≈◊Õ ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–
„π à«π∑’ºË ¥‘ π—¥
38,024.23
6,513.90
2,025.38
30,674.73
4,866.49*
1,515.92**
25,674.73***
4,866.49*
1,515.92**
Àπà«¬: ≈â“π∫“∑
√«¡
46,563.51
35,541.22
30,541.22
∑’Ë¡“: SYRUS estimates
* °”≈—ß‡®√®“¢Õ≈¥Àπ’È°â∫‡®â“Àπ’È
** ∑¬Õ¬√—∫√Ÿâ‡ªìπ√“¬‰¥â®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È‡ªìπ‡«≈“ 5 ªï
*** §“¥«à“®–‡®√®“‡æ◊ËÕ Re-finance °—∫ KTB
●
●
Analyst: Charnvut Taecha-amorntanakij
Tel : 0-2646-9964
‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ 1.1 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. ‡æ◊ËÕ®à“¬™”√–Àπ’Èµ“¡ —≠≠“ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß ”‡√Á® ≥ ‘Èπªï 46 TPIPL
¡’Àπ’È‡ß‘πµâπ, ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ·≈–¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–„π à«π∑’Ëº‘¥π—¥ √«¡°—π‡ªìπ 46,563 ≈∫.
À√◊Õª√–¡“≥ 1,164 ≈â“π‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞ ´÷ËßÀ≈—ß®“°‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ‚¥¬°“√ÕÕ°Àÿâπ¢“¬®”π«π 300
≈â“πÀÿâπ √“§“Àÿâπ≈– 37 ∫“∑ √«¡‡ªìπ‡ß‘π 1.1 À¡◊Ëπ≈∫. (´÷Ëß√“§“‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπµË”°«à“ BV/Share
≥ ªï 46 ∑’Ë 43.6 ∫“∑ ‰¡à¡“° ª√–°Õ∫°—∫‡ß‘π∑’Ë ‰¥â®“°°“√‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ®–π”‰ª™”√–Àπ’È ∑”„Àâ
√“§“Àÿâπ®–‰¡à dilute ¡“°π—°) ‚¥¬„π‡∫◊ÈÕßµâπ®–π”‰ª™”√–Àπ’Èª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß ®”π«π 6,400
≈∫. ´÷Ëß®–‰¥â√—∫ à«π¬°‡«âπ‡ß‘πµâπ, ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ·≈–¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–„π à«π∑’Ëº‘¥π—¥
∫“ß à«π √«¡‡ªìπ°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß 5,049 ≈∫. ·µà‡ß‘π®“°°“√‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπ„π§√—Èßπ’È ‰¥â
¡“°°«à“∑’Ë«“ß·ºπ‰«â ®÷ß¡’§«“¡‡ªìπ‰ª‰¥â Ÿß∑’Ë TPIPL ®–‡®√®“™”√–Àπ’È‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’°ª√–¡“≥ 5,000
≈∫. À√◊Õ 125 ≈â“π‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞ ∑”„ÀâÀπ’È ‘π∑—ÈßÀ¡¥¢Õß TPIPL ≈¥≈ß‡À≈◊Õª√–¡“≥ 25,000
≈∫. À√◊Õª√–¡“≥ 600 ≈â“π‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞ àßº≈„Àâ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®à“¬„πÕπ“§µ≈¥≈ßÕ’°ª√–¡“≥
250 ≈∫. Õ¬à“ß‰√°Áµ“¡„π°“√ª√–¡“≥°“√¢Õß SYRUS ¬—ß‰¡à√«¡º≈®“°°“√‡®√®“™”√–Àπ’È
‡æ‘Ë¡Õ’° 5,000 ≈∫ ¥—ß°≈à“«
®”π«πÀπ’È ‘π°àÕπ-À≈—ßª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß
∑’Ë¡“: Àπ—ß ◊Õ™’È™«π
Contact person:
«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß
16 °ÿ¡¿“æ—π∏å 2547
Õÿµ “À°√√¡«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß ·≈–ªî‚µ√‡§¡’Õ¬Ÿà„π™à«ß¢“¢÷Èπ TPIPL ¡’√“¬‰¥âÀ≈—°¡“®“°∏ÿ√°‘®
º≈‘µ·≈–®”Àπà“¬´’‡¡πµå (´’‡¡πµå·≈–§Õπ°√’µº ¡‡ √Á®) ·≈–∏ÿ√°‘®ªî‚µ√‡§¡’ ‚¥¬¡’ —¥ à«π
75% ·≈– 25% µ“¡≈”¥—∫ ªí®®ÿ∫—πÕÿµ “À°√√¡«— ¥ÿ°àÕ √â“ß‡µ‘∫‚µÕ¬à“ß¡“°®“°¡“µ√°“√
°√–µÿâπ‡»√…∞°‘®¢Õß¿“§√—∞œ ∑”„Àâ¿“§Õ —ßÀ“√‘¡∑√—æ¬å‡µ‘∫‚µ ª√–°Õ∫°—∫°“√µ—Èßß∫≈ß∑ÿπ∑—Èß
¿“§√—∞∫“≈ ·≈–‡Õ°™π‡°’Ë¬«°—∫°“√°àÕ √â“ß “∏“√≥Ÿª‚¿§¢—Èπæ◊Èπ∞“πµà“ßÊ ‡ªìπ®”π«π¡“°
πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß‰¥â√—∫º≈¥’®“°«—Æ®—°√¢“¢÷Èπ¢ÕßÕÿµ “À°√√¡ªî‚µ√‡§¡’ ∑’Ë§“¥«à“®–¢÷Èπ Ÿß ÿ¥„πªï 49
‡æ‘Ë¡°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ ºà“π°“√¢“¬„πª√–‡∑»‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ ªí®®ÿ∫—π TPIPL ¡’°“√®”Àπà“¬´’‡¡πµå„π
ª√–‡∑» 86% ·≈–µà“ßª√–‡∑» 14% ·µà‡π◊ËÕß®“°§«“¡µâÕß°“√„πª√–‡∑»∑’Ë‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ àßº≈„Àâ
√“§“ªŸπ´’‡ ¡πµå„πª√–‡∑»ª√—∫µ—«‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ „π¢≥–∑’Ë√“§“¢“¬ àßµà“ßª√–‡∑»¬—ß§ß∑√ßµ—«
‡π◊ËÕß®“°Õÿª∑“π¢ÕßªŸπ´’‡¡πµå„πµ≈“¥‚≈°¬—ß¡’Õ’°¡“° ¥—ßπ—Èπ TPIPL ®÷ß‡æ‘Ë¡ —¥ à«π°“√¢“¬
„πª√–‡∑»¡“µ“¡≈”¥—∫ ´÷Ëß®– àßº≈∫«°µàÕÕ—µ√“°”‰√¢—Èπµâπ
WWW.syrus.co.th
Syrus
56
∑’æ’‰Õ ‚æ≈’π
TPIPL / TPIPL.BK
●
●
●
Syrus
§“¥¡’°”‰√¢—ÈπµË”Õ’° 5,049 ≈∫. ®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È§√—Èßπ’È µ“¡ —≠≠“ª√—∫‚§√ß
√â“ßÀπ’È TPIPL µâÕß‡æ‘Ë¡∑ÿπÕ¬à“ßπâÕ¬ª√–¡“≥ 180 ≈â“π‡À√’¬≠ À√—∞ ‡æ◊ËÕ™”√–Àπ’È ·≈–®–
‰¥â√—∫¬°‡«âπ‡ß‘πµâπ ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ·≈–¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–„π à«π∑’Ëº‘¥π—¥ ´÷Ëß®–∑”„Àâ¡’°”‰√
®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È¢—ÈπµË”ª√–¡“≥ 5,049 ≈â“π∫“∑ (√—∫√Ÿâ‡≈¬ 3,453 ≈â“π∫“∑ ·≈–
∑¬Õ¬√—∫√Ÿâ „πÕ’° 5 ªï¢â“ßÀπâ“√«¡ 1,595 ≈â“π∫“∑) ·≈–§“¥«à“ —¥ à«πÀπ’È ‘π ÿ∑∏‘µàÕ∑ÿπ
(Net D/E) ®–≈¥≈ß®“° 2.2 ‡∑à“ „πªï 46 (°àÕπª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß) ‡ªìπ 0.7 ‡∑à“ „πªï 47 (À≈—ß
ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ß) πÕ°®“°π’È TPIPL °”≈—ß‡®√®“¢Õ≈¥ À√◊Õ·ª≈ßÀπ’È‡ªìπ∑ÿπ „π à«π¢Õß
¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√–·≈–§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡§â“ß®à“¬ à«π∑’Ë‡À≈◊ÕÕ’°ª√–¡“≥ 4.9 æ—π≈∫. ´÷ËßÀ“°‡®√®“
”‡√Á®®–¡’°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ°«à“ 10,000 ≈∫. ·≈– Net D/E ®–≈¥≈ß
‰¥âÕ’°
º≈ª√–°Õ∫°“√‰µ√¡“ 4/46 ‡ªìπ‰ªµ“¡§“¥ ‚¥¬°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘∑—Èßªï 46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 4,783 ≈∫.
À√◊Õ 9.4 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ „π¢≥–∑’Ë SYRUS §“¥°“√«à“°”‰√∑—Èßªï®–Õ¬Ÿà∑’Ë 4,588 ≈∫. À√◊Õ 9.04
∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ·≈–§‘¥‡ªìπ°”‰√ª°µ‘ (‰¡à√«¡°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È ·≈–°”‰√/¢“¥∑ÿπ
®“°Õ—µ√“·≈°‡ª≈’Ë¬π) 2,850 ≈∫. ‡√“¬—ß§“¥°“√µàÕ«à“À≈—ß®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È „πµâπ
ªï 47 ”‡√Á®®–∑”„Àâ¥Õ°‡∫’È¬®à“¬¢Õß TPIPL ≈¥≈ßª√–¡“≥ 300 ≈∫. ·≈–≈¥≈ßÕ’°„πªï
µàÕÊ ‰ª πÕ°®“°π’È¬—ß “¡“√∂∫—π∑÷°°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È ‰¥âÕ’° 5,049 ≈∫. ¥—ß°≈à“«
¢â“ßµâπ ∑”„Àâªï 47 ®–¡’°”‰√ ÿ∑∏‘ 8,059 ≈∫. À√◊Õ 9.98 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ ·≈–§‘¥‡ªìπ°”‰√ª°µ‘
(‰¡à√«¡°”‰√®“°°“√ª√—∫‚§√ß √â“ßÀπ’È) 4,286 ≈∫. À√◊Õ 5.3 ∫“∑µàÕÀÿâπ à«π EBITDA
®“°º≈°“√¥”‡π‘πß“π®√‘ß„πªï 46 ‡∑à“°—∫ 6,208 ≈∫. SYRUS §“¥«à“®–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 7,662 ≈∫.
„πªï 47 ·≈–‡æ‘Ë¡‡ªìπ 8,000 ≈∫. „πªï 48
√“§“∑’Ë‡À¡“– ¡ªï 47 52-58 ∫“∑ SYRUS ª√–‡¡‘π¡Ÿ≈§à“µ“¡ªí®®—¬æ◊Èπ∞“π¢Õß TPIPL
¥â«¬«‘∏’§‘¥≈¥°√–· ‡ß‘π ¥ (DCF) ‚¥¬„™â ¡¡µ‘∞“π WACC 10.6% ·≈–°”Àπ¥„Àâ ‚√ßß“π
4 ¢Õß TPIPL ‡√‘Ë¡¥”‡π‘π°“√„πªï 49 ‡π◊ËÕß®“°‡™◊ËÕ«à“‡ªìπ™à«ß∑’Ë§«“¡µâÕß°“√„™âªŸπ´’‡¡πµå
Ÿß°«à“ª√‘¡“≥∑’Ëº≈‘µ‰¥â „πª√–‡∑» ´÷Ëß‰¥â√“§“∑’Ë‡À¡“– ¡ 52.0 ∫“∑ ·≈–∂â“ TPIPL “¡“√∂
‡®√®“¢Õ≈¥Àπ’È „π à«π¢Õß¥Õ°‡∫’È¬§â“ß™”√– ·≈–§à“∏√√¡‡π’¬¡§â“ß®à“¬ à«π∑’Ë‡À≈◊Õ ®”π«π
4.9 æ—π≈∫. ‰¥â®–∑”„Àâ√“§“∑’Ë‡À¡“– ¡‡æ‘Ë¡¢÷Èπ‡ªìπ 58.0 ∫“∑ ´÷Ëß§‘¥‡ªìπ Price/Normalized
EPS 9.81 - 10.94 ‡∑à“
SYRUS’ Underwriting Services 2003
Sahacogen (Chonburi) Plc.
Quality Construction
Products Plc.
Chonburi Concrete Products
Plc.
Siam City Bank Plc.
Initial Public Offering
Baht 432 million
Baht 640 million
Baht 550 million
Public Offering by FIDF
Baht 8,399 million
Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
December 2003
December 2003
November 2003
November 2003
Thai Airways International
Plc.
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand)
Plc.
Univanich Palm Oil Plc.
Picnic Gas & Engineering Plc.
Public Offering
Baht 22,137.50 million
Baht 1,326.65 million
Baht 815.92 million
Public Offering
Baht 1,200 million
Underwriter
Lead Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
November 2003
November 2003
November 2003
November 2003
T.K.S.Technologies Plc.
Sikarin Plc.
Thai Olefins Plc.
Nakornthai Strip Mill Plc.
Baht 169.10 million
Private Placement
Baht 125 million
Baht 6,780 million
Public Offering
Baht 3,960 million
Underwriter
Sole Placement Agent
Underwriter
Underwriter
November 2003
October 2003
October 2003
October 2003
Krung Thai Bank Plc.
C.P. Seven Eleven Plc.
MFEC Plc.
Hemaraj Land and
Development Plc.
Public Offering by FIDF
Baht 29,325 million
Baht 3,003 million
Baht 190 million
Private Placement
Baht 960 million
Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
Placement Agent
October 2003
October 2003
October 2003
September 2003
Bank of Ayudhya Plc.
Advanced Information
Technology Plc.
Bangpakong Terminal Plc.
EGV Entertainment Plc.
IT City Plc.
Private Placement
Baht 10,000 million
Baht 140 million
Baht 360 million
Baht 300 million
Baht 200 million
Selling Agent
Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
Underwriter
August 2003
July 2003
July 2003
June 2003
May 2003
Syrus Securities Company Limited
9th, 12th, 15th, 17th, and 18th FL
Alma Link Building
25 Soi Chidlom, Ploenchit, Lumpini,
Patumwan, Bangkok 10330
Tel: 66(0) 2646-9999 Fax: 66(0) 2646-9889
www.syrus.co.th
The Innovative Premium Broker
http://www.syrus.co.th

Executive Talk.... Stock Market Outlook.... TOP 10 Favourite Stocks

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