Luxury Goods

Transcription

Luxury Goods

LUXURY GOODS
Who buys where:
Decrypting cross-border Luxury Demand Flows
8 JULY 2016 at 07:45*
Luca Solca
(+44) 203 430 8503
[email protected]
Melania Grippo
(+39) 02 89 63 1724
[email protected]
Guido Lucarelli
(+39) 02 89 63 1726
[email protected]
ContactLab
Marco Pozzi
(+39) 02 28 31 181
[email protected]
Francesca Borgonovo
(+39) 02 28 31 181
[email protected]
We continue to explore the “real nature” of luxury goods in this note, the third instalment of this series
(please see LUXURY GOODS: Myths and Reality of Luxury Demand – Investment implications going
into 2016 as well as LUXURY GOODS: Entry Price Points and the real Nature of Luxury Goods). We
focus this time on the nagging question of who actually buys luxury goods products and where they
come from, in an effort to complement what we consider to be less-than-ideal industry disclosure,
largely limited to geography of sales. We leverage data from digital and physical retail with
ContactLab to create a “first” in luxury analysis: a detailed breakdown by nationality of luxury spend
in all geographies worldwide.
We leverage data from digital and physical retail to dovetail the geography and nationality of
luxury sales
We record the % of sales in every country, from both domestic and foreign customers. At the same
time, we ascertain where exactly in the world each nationality buys luxury goods products. We track
the nationality vs. geography of luxury demand over the past three years. This is relevant: in 2015
30% of luxury goods products were bought abroad– with huge interchange between Asia and
Europe. We identify five clusters: 1) the USA, Japan and Korea have relatively limited interchange
with the ROW; 2) Europe – France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK – benefit from massive
inflows and low outflows; 3) Hong Kong and Macau are like Europe on steroids; 4) EMs are the
largest contributors to international luxury sales, while benefitting from very limited inflows; 5) the
UAE and the Gulf in general are in a unique position, with both relatively large inflows and outflows.
The good news is that international luxury spending seems to be holding up
Our analysis suggests that international luxury goods spend is not as bad as feared. Overall, the
data in our sample point to a 5% rise in domestic and overseas luxury spend in the first four months
of 2016. Chinese overseas spend decreased by 5%, but domestic spend increased by 5% – leaving
a net positive balance. Hong Kong and Macau were net losers vs. Japan, Korea and Europe.
* Date and time (London Time) on which the investment recommendation was finalised. It may differ from the date and time of broad
dissemination on the website.See Appendix (on p27) for Analyst Certification, Important Disclosures and Non-US Research Analyst disclosures.
Contents
Executive Summary ______________________________________ 3
Who buys Where : Decrypting cross-border Luxury Demand Flows _ 5
Appendix _____________________________________________ 22
Exane – presentation ____________________________________ 26
ContactLab presentation _________________________________ 26
Exane BNP Paribas Research & ContactLab
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 2
Executive Summary
We continue to explore the “real nature” of luxury goods in this note, the third instalment
of this series (please see: LUXURY GOODS: Myths and Reality of Luxury Demand –
Investment implications going into 2016 as well as LUXURY GOODS: Entry Price Points
and the real Nature of Luxury Goods). We focus this time on the nagging question of who
actually buys luxury goods products and where they come from, in an effort to
complement what we consider to be less-than-ideal industry disclosure, largely limited to
geography of sales. We leverage data from digital and physical retail with ContactLab to
create a “first” in luxury analysis: a detailed breakdown by nationality of luxury spend in
all geographies worldwide.
We leverage data from digital and physical retail to dovetail the geography and
nationality of luxury sales
We record the % of sales in every country, from both domestic and foreign customers.
At the same time, we ascertain where exactly in the world each nationality buys luxury
goods products. We track the nationality vs. geography of luxury demand over the past
three years. This is relevant, as 30% of luxury goods products were bought abroad in
2015 – with huge interchange between Asia and Europe. We identify five clusters:
1. The USA, Japan and Korea have relatively limited interchange with the ROW
Japanese and USA nationals make more than 90% of their luxury purchases in their
respective countries – the proportion is 80% when we look at the South Koreans.
Foreigners account for only 5–15% of luxury goods sales in Japan, South Korea and the
USA. This is even though luxury goods purchases by Chinese nationals in Japan and
Korea have risen in recent years, on the back of favourable FX. The USA accounts for
31% of the global luxury goods market, while Japan is at 8% and South Korea 4%.
2. Europe – France, Italy, Spain, Switzerland and the UK – benefit from massive
inflows and little outflows
French, Italian and Spanish consumers buy 85-95% of their luxury goods in their
respective countries. But foreigners account for the bulk of luxury sales in those
countries, ranging from 70–80%. These countries have benefitted materially in recent
years from a weakening EUR. France accounts for 7% of the global luxury goods market,
Italy is at 7% and Spain c.1%. The UK and Switzerland resemble Southern Europe – but
are a little less extreme. Swiss and British consumers buy 80–85% of their luxury goods
in their respective countries, while foreigners account for 50–55% of luxury sales in
Switzerland and the UK. Switzerland accounts for less than 1% of the global luxury goods
market, and the UK 6%.
3. Hong Kong and Macau are like Europe on steroids
Hong Kong and Macau are the most extreme in benefiting from inflows. More than 80%
of domestic luxury demand stays in Hong Kong & Macau, while foreigners represent 90%
of luxury goods sales in Hong Kong & Macau. This despite Hong Kong & Macau suffering
a fall in their share of global luxury goods sales made to foreigners worldwide from c.37%
in 2013 to c.25% in 2015, as Chinese demand moved elsewhere. Chinese consumers
were spending 70% of their luxury goods dollars in Hong Kong in Jan-Apr 2014 vs. 35%
in January–April 2016. Hong Kong & Macau combined account for 3% of the global luxury
goods market.
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 3
4. EMs are the largest contributors to international luxury sales, while benefitting
from very limited inflows
Russia is the most extreme: 2/3 of Russian luxury spend goes abroad, while inflows
account for just over 5% of luxury sales in the country. China is next: >40% of Chinese
luxury goods purchases are made abroad, while China sees virtually zero inflows. Brazil,
India, Mexico and Taiwan are in the same ballpark, albeit less extreme: 2/3 of luxury
spend stays at home, while inflows account for 5–15% of luxury goods sales in each
country. China accounts for c.7% of the global luxury market, Russia and Brazil for 1%
each, while India, Mexico and Taiwan combined represent 4%.
5. The UAE and the Gulf are in a unique position, having both relatively large
inflows and outflows
Half of luxury goods sales in the UAE and the Gulf are made to overseas consumers. At
the same time, UAE and Gulf nationals buy approximately 50% of their luxury goods
abroad. Russian and Chinese nationals are the most important luxury goods spenders
in the UAE, while Middle Eastern consumers spend a significant amount of their luxury
goods dollars in Europe. The UAE and the Gulf represent a combined 3% of global luxury
sales.
Our analysis suggests that international luxury goods spend is not as bad as feared.
Overall, the data in our sample point to a 5% rise in domestic and overseas luxury spend
in the first four months of 2016. Chinese overseas spend decreased by 5%, but domestic
spend increased by 5% – leaving a net positive balance. Hong Kong and Macau were
net losers vs. Japan, Korea and Europe.
Interestingly, Chinese spend in Europe appears to be rising – possibly because our data
captures a portion of Daigou spending (i.e., spend in Europe by Chinese students, whose
visas don’t allow tax refunds, and which are therefore not captured by Global Blue
statistics). If this is what we saw in the wake of the November 2015 Paris terrorist attacks,
then 2H16 could reasonably expected to be even more positive = this should comfort
luxury goods investors.
Important Caveat Our analyses are based on a sample of luxury goods companies
which may not represent the whole market.
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 4
Who buys Where :
Decrypting cross-border Luxury Demand
Flows
We continue to explore the “real nature” of luxury goods in this note, the third instalment
of this series (please see: LUXURY GOODS: Myths and Reality of Luxury Demand –
Investment implications going into 2016 as well as LUXURY GOODS: Entry Price Points
and the real Nature of Luxury Goods). We focus this time on the nagging question of who
actually buys luxury goods products and where they come from, in an effort to
complement what we consider to be less-than-ideal industry disclosure, largely limited to
geography of sales. We leverage data from digital and physical retail with ContactLab to
create a “first” in luxury analysis: a detailed breakdown by nationality of luxury spend in
all geographies worldwide.
We leverage data from digital and physical retail to dovetail the geography and
nationality of luxury sales
We record the % of sales in every country, from both domestic and foreign customers.
At the same time, we ascertain where exactly in the world each nationality buys luxury
goods products. We track the nationality vs. geography of luxury demand over the past
three years. This is relevant, as 30% of luxury goods products were bought abroad in
2015 – with huge interchange between Asia and Europe. We identify five clusters:
Figure 1: 30% of luxury goods products were bought abroad in 2015 (+3.5% vs 2014)
% of Home Country vs Abroad purchases of luxury goods (2015)
Abroad
Purchases
ca. 30%
Home Country
Purchases
ca. 70%
Source: ContactLab Analysis, World Travel Tourism Council
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 5
1. The USA, Japan and Korea have relatively limited interchange with the ROW
Japanese and USA nationals make more than 90% of their luxury purchases in their
respective countries – the proportion is 80% when we look at the South Koreans.
Foreigners account for only 5–15% of luxury goods sales in Japan, South Korea and the
USA. This is even though luxury goods purchases by Chinese nationals in Japan and
Korea have risen in recent years, on the back of favourable FX. The USA accounts for
31% of the global luxury goods market, while Japan is at 8% and South Korea 4%.
Figure 2: The USA, Japan and Korea have limited interchange with the ROW
% of luxury revenues - 2015
Source: ContactLab analysis
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 6
Figure 3: Foreigners account for only 5–15% of luxury goods sales in Japan,
South Korea and the USA
Revenues split by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
% DOMESTIC CLIENTS
% FOREIGN CLIENTS
Figure 4: Japan inflows are mostly from China. Outflows are mostly to the US and the European heritage
countries
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 7
Figure 5: Japanese luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
US
2013
2014
HERITAGE COUNTRIES EU
HK/MACAU
2015
OTHER
Figure 6: Inflows into the US are decreasing and fragmented across many Latin and Asian countries, while
outflows are focused toward Europe
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 8
Figure 7: US luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
MEXICO
2014
PUERTO RICO/BARBADOS/…
2015
CANADA
OTHER
Figure 8: Korea is mostly an outgoing traveller country with some limited but growing inflows from China
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 9
Figure 9: Korean clients’ luxury purchases abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
US
2014
JAPAN
HK/MACAU
2015
GULF
OTHER
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 10
2. Europe – F, I, E, CH and the UK – benefit from massive inflows and little outflows
French, Italian and Spanish consumers buy 85-95% of their luxury goods in their
respective countries. But foreigners account for the bulk of luxury sales in those
countries, ranging from 70–80%. These countries have benefitted materially in recent
years from a weakening EUR. France accounts for 7% of the global luxury goods market,
Italy is at 7% and Spain c.1%. The UK and Switzerland resemble Southern Europe – but
are a little less extreme. Swiss and British consumers buy 80–85% of their luxury goods
in their respective countries, while foreigners account for 50–55% of luxury sales in
Switzerland and the UK. Switzerland accounts for less than 1% of the global luxury goods
market, and the UK 6%.
Figure 10: Europe – F, I, E, CH and the UK – benefit from massive inflows and little outflows
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 11
Figure 11: French, Italian and Spanish consumers buy 85-95% of their luxury
goods in their respective countries
Revenue split by nationality (2015)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
% revenues abroad
Americans (US)
Japanese
Europeans
Swiss
British
Koreans
Hong Kongers
Taiwanese
Mexicans
Indians
Brazilian
Chinese
Gulf
Rus/Kaz/Azer
0%
% revenues in home country
Figure 12: France, Italy and other European countries have benefitted materially in recent years from a
weakening EUR
WW Foreign Luxury revenues by country (% -2015)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
HK/MACAU
2013
ITALY
FRANCE
US
UK
2014
JAPAN
UAE
2015
OTHER (2/3 from other European countries)
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 12
3. Hong Kong and Macau are like Europe on steroids
Hong Kong and Macau are the most extreme in benefiting from inflows. More than 80%
of domestic luxury demand stays in Hong Kong & Macau, while foreigners represent 90%
of luxury goods sales in Hong Kong & Macau. This despite Hong Kong and Macau
suffering a fall in their share of global luxury goods sales made to foreigners from c.37%
in 2013 to c.25% in 2015, as Chinese demand moved elsewhere. Chinese consumers
were spending 70% of their luxury goods dollars in Hong Kong in Jan-Apr 2014 vs. 35%
in January-April 2016. Hong Kong & Macau combined account for 3% of the global luxury
goods market.
Figure 13: Hong Kong and Macau are like Europe on steroids
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 13
4. EMs are the largest contributors to international luxury sales, while benefitting
from very limited inflows
Russia is the most extreme: 2/3 of Russian luxury spend goes abroad, while inflows
account for just over 5% of luxury sales in the country. China is next: >40% of Chinese
luxury goods purchases are made abroad, while China sees virtually zero inflows. Brazil,
India, Mexico and Taiwan are in the same ballpark, albeit less extreme: 2/3 of luxury
spend stays at home, while inflows account for 5-15% of luxury goods sales in each
country. China accounts for c.7% of the global luxury market, Russia and Brazil for 1%
each, while India, Mexico and Taiwan combined represent 4%.
Figure 14: EMs are the largest contributors to international luxury sales, while benefitting from very limited
inflows
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 14
Figure 15: 2/3 of Russian luxury spend goes abroad, while inflows account for just over 5%
Figure 16: Russian luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
GULF
2014
HERITAGE COUNTRY CH
2015
OTHER
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 15
Figure 17: >40% of Chinese luxury goods purchases are made abroad, while China sees virtually zero inflows
Figure 18: Chinese luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
HK/MACAU
2013
2014
JAPAN
US
2015
GULF
OTHER
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 16
Figure 19: c.2/3 of Brazilian luxury spends stays at home while inflows account for c.5% of luxury goods sales
Figure 20: Brazilians’ luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
US
2014
2015
OTHER
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 17
5. The UAE and the Gulf are in a unique position, having both relatively large
inflows and outflows
Half of luxury goods sales in the UAE and the Gulf are made to overseas consumers. At
the same time, UAE and Gulf nationals buy approximately 50% of their luxury goods
abroad. Russian and Chinese nationals are the most important luxury goods spenders
in the UAE, while Middle Eastern consumers spend a significant amount of their luxury
goods dollars in Europe. The UAE and the Gulf represent a combined 3% of global luxury
sales.
Figure 21: The UAE and the Gulf are in a unique position, having both massive inflows and material outflows
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 18
Figure 22: Russians and Chinese nationals are the most important luxury goods spenders in the UAE, while
Middle Eastern consumers spend a significant amount of their luxury goods dollars in Europe
Figure 23: Gulf countries luxury spending abroad by country
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
2014
UK
SWITZERLAND
2015
US
OTHER
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 19
Our analysis suggests that international luxury goods spend is not as bad as feared.
Overall, the data in our sample point to a 5% rise in domestic and overseas luxury spend
in the first four months of 2016. Chinese overseas spend decreased by 5%, but domestic
spend increased by 5% – leaving a net positive balance. Hong Kong and Macau were
net losers vs. Japan, Korea and Europe.
Interestingly, Chinese spend in Europe appears to be rising – possibly because our data
captures a portion of Daigou spending (i.e., spend in Europe by Chinese students, whose
visas don’t allow tax refunds, and which are therefore not captured by Global Blue
statistics). If this is what we saw in the wake of the November 2015 Paris terrorist attacks,
then 2H16 could reasonably expected to be even more positive = this should comfort
luxury goods investors.
Important Caveat Our analyses are based on a sample of luxury goods companies
which may not represent the whole market.
Figure 24: The data in our sample point to a 5% rise in domestic and overseas luxury spend in the first four
months of 2016
WW foreign vs domestic shopping
WW Foreign vs Domestic Shopping
(€, Jan - Apr 2015-2016)
WW Foreign vs Domestic Shopping
(%, Jan-Apr 2015-2016)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
+5%
+5%
Jan - Apr 2015
Jan - Apr 2016
Domestic Shopping
30%
30%
70%
70%
Jan - Apr 2015
Foreign Shopping
Domestic Shopping
Jan - Apr 2016
% Foreign Shopping
Figure 25: Chinese overseas spend decreased by 5%, but domestic spend increased by 5% – leaving a net
positive balance
Chinese foreign vs domestic shopping
Chinese Foreign vs Domestic Shopping
(€, Jan-Apr 2015-2016)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-5%
+5%
Jan - Apr 2015
Domestic Shopping
Chinese Foreign vs Domestic Shopping
(%, Jan-Apr 2015-2016)
Jan - Apr 2016
Foreign Shopping
43%
40%
57%
60%
Jan - Apr 2015
% Domestic Shopping
Jan - Apr 2016
% Foreign Shopping
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 20
Figure 26: Hong Kong and Macau were net losers vs. Japan, Korea and Europe (1/2)
WW Foreign Shopping by Major Destination (%, Jan-Apr 2014-2016
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan - Apr 2014
HK+Macau
Far East
Jan - Apr 2015
Europe
USA
Jan - Apr 2016
UAE
Other
Figure 27: Hong Kong and Macau were net losers vs. Japan, Korea and Europe (2/2)
Chinese Foreign Shopping by Major Destination (%, Jan-Apr 2014-2016)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Jan - Apr 2014
HK+Macau
Far East
Jan - Apr 2015
Europe
UAE
Jan - Apr 2016
USA
Other
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 21
Appendix
Figure 28: Worldwide Foreign Luxury revenues by nationality (2013-2015)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013
2014
2015
FR/IT/DE/ES/…
RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN/AZERBAIJAN
BRAZIL/MEXICO/VENEZUELA
JAPAN
TAIWAN
OTHER
CHINA/HK/MACAU
US/CANADA
GULF
THAILAND/INDONESIA/MALAYSIA/SINGAPORE
KOREA
INDIA
Figure 29: Worldwide Foreign Luxury revenues by country (2013-2015)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
HK/MACAU
2013
ITALY
FRANCE
US
UK
2014
JAPAN
UAE
2015
OTHER (2/3 from other European countries)
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 22
Figure 30: Chinese travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=China)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
GULF
HK/MACAU
CHINA
US
JAPAN
HERITAGE
COUNTRIES
EU
Figure 31: Korean travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=Korea)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
HK/MACAU
GULF
US
KOREA
JAPAN
HERITAGE
COUNTRIES
EU
Figure 32: Brazilian travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=Brazil)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
US
BRAZIL
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 23
Figure 33: Gulf travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=Gulf)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
HERITAGE
COUNTRY CH
US
HERITAGE
COUNTRIES EU
HERITAGE
COUNTRY UK
GULF
Figure 34: Japanese travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=Japan)
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
HK/MACAU
JAPAN
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 24
Figure 35: Russian travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=Russia)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
UAE
HERITAGE COUNTRY
CH
HERITAGE
COUNTRIES EU
RUSSIA
Figure 36: US travellers’ average spending (Indexed to 100=USA)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
PR/BARBADOS
HERITAGE EU
CANADA
MEXICO
US
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 25
Exane – presentation
Specialising in European equities, Exane is active in three businesses:
– Cash Equities: under the brand name Exane BNP Paribas, Exane provides institutional investors with a range of services, such as research,
sale and execution on European equities;
– Equity Derivatives: Exane Derivatives has built a robust structured products franchise, based on its longstanding leadership in European
convertible bonds and options;
– Asset Management: Exane Asset Management is one of the leaders in long/short equity fund management in Europe.
The agreement between Exane and BNP Paribas, signed in 2004 and strengthened in 2010 and 2011, was renewed in its entirety in April 2015
for a five-year period, revolves around three core elements:
– An operational partnership in European cash equities where BNP Paribas conferred exclusivity on secondary equity brokerage and the
distribution of primary market activity to Exane under the Exane BNP Paribas brand;
– A balance sheet partnership, which is particularly well suited to our Equity Derivatives business, providing financing and support for our rating;
– A capital partnership uniting the strength of BNP Paribas with the independence of Exane.
Exane works primarily with institutional clients worldwide (pension funds, fund managers for banks and insurers and hedge funds), and markets
its derivatives products to a broader pool of clients comprising private asset managers and investment advisors. Exane has a workforce of c.900
employees operating from offices in Paris, London, Frankfurt, Geneva, Madrid, Milan, New York, Stockholm and Singapore. Exane BNP Paribas
equity research team covers over 591 companies. UK companies represent the biggest part of our coverage universe (26% of covered market
cap), followed by France (16%) and Germany (14%). Our research receives regular acclaim in leading industry surveys.
For further information, log on to our website at www.exane.com
Exane has worked in collaboration with ContactLab on this report and the sections provided by ContactLab are clearly highlighted. Marco Pozzi,
and Francesca Borgonovo from ContactLab have contributed to this report.
Contributors from ContactLab are not Research analysts and are not FCA or AMF registered. Contributors from ContactLab have only contributed
their expertise on clearly delineated sections of the report and did not have access to the full report or its conclusions prior to publication.
ContactLab presentation
ContactLab provides the leading engagement marketing platform for commerce-focused companies and fashion & luxury brands to
develop successfully digital communication programs that enable personalized marketing to unlock demand and build lasting customer
preferences. Founded in 1998, ContactLab is led by its founder Massimo Fubini, an internet industry veteran and opinion leader in the
marketing field since 1995.
Thanks to our own enabling PaaS technology and to the experience of our navigated professionals, we enable brands to achieve a deeper
understanding of customers, to deliver uniquely relevant messages at every touchpoint of the customer journey and to measure performances
with real-time dashboards that display all the relevant data. Our enterprise-grade platform is built with the highest security level, reliability,
management, scalability.
Our solutions enable brands to gain insights into the context of each customer and deepen the retail experience by delivering highly
individualized digital contact plans across channels based on events, preferences and product lifecycle.
Today, we work with more than 1000 clients in different industries across the world and serve most of the world-class brands in the
Luxury and Fashion sectors
Disclosures
All stock-specific commentary and recommendations in this report are solely based on Exane Research.
ContactLab
ContactLab does not make investment recommendations, in this report or otherwise, and nothing in this report should be interpreted as an opinion
by ContactLab either on market forecasts or on the prospects of specific companies.
This report and all of its content are strictly confidential. It may not be circulated or otherwise reproduced in whole or in part.
The analyses set out in the Report are the result of the aggregation of public materials and data coming from a sample of industry players.
Use of this report by any person for whatever purpose should not, and does not, absolve such third party from using due diligence and care in
verifying the report’s contents.
Any use which a person makes of this document, or any reliance on it, or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such person.
ContactLab, its affiliates and representatives accept no duty of care or liability of any kind whatsoever to any person, and no responsibility for
damages, if any, suffered by any person as the result of decision made, or not made, or actions taken, or not taken, based on this document..
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 26
DISCLOSURE APPENDIX
Analyst Certification
We, Melania Grippo, Guido Lucarelli, Luca Solca, (authors of or contributors to the report) hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect
our personal view(s) about the company or companies and securities discussed in this report. No part of our compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Non-US Research Analyst Disclosure
The research analysts named below were involved in preparing this research report. Research analysts at Exane Ltd and Exane SA are not associated persons of Exane
Inc. and thus are not registered or qualified in the U.S. as research analysts with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) or the New York Stock Exchange
(NYSE). These non-U.S. analysts are not subject to the NASD Rule 2241 and NYSE Rule 472 restrictions on communications with a subject company, public
appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.
Melania Grippo
Exane SA
Guido Lucarelli
Exane SA
Luca Solca
Exane SA
Exane SA is regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (AMF) in France, Exane Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United
Kingdom, and Exane Inc. is regulated by FINRA and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in the United States.
Research Analyst Compensation
The research analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report receive(s) compensation based upon various factors including overall firm revenues, which may
include investment banking activities.
Disclosure of the report to the company/ies
Companies
NONE
Disclosures
1 – Sections of this report, with the research summary, target price and rating removed, have been presented to the subject company/ies prior to its distribution, for the
sole purpose of verifying the accuracy of factual statements.
2 – Following the presentation of sections of this report to this subject company, some conclusions were amended.
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Commitment to transparency on potential conflicts of interest: BNP Paribas
While BNP Paribas (“BNPP”) holds a material ownership interest in the various Exane entities, Exane and BNPP have entered into an agreement to maintain the
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The latest company-specific disclosures, valuation methodologies and investment case risks for all other companies covered by this document are
available on www.exane.com/toolbox/compliance.
Luxury Goods
8 July 2016
page 27
LONDON
Exane Ltd
1 Hanover Street
London W1S 1YZ
UK
Tel: (+44) 207 039 9400
Fax: (+44) 207 039 9440
PARIS
Exane S.A.
6 Rue Ménars
75002 Paris
France
Tel: (+33) 1 44 95 40 00
Fax: (+33) 1 44 95 40 01
FRANKFURT
Branch of Exane S.A.
Europa-Allee 12, 3rd floor
60327 Frankfurt
Germany
Tel: (+49) 69 42 72 97 300
Fax: (+49) 69 42 72 97 301
GENEVA
Rue du Rhône 80
1204 Geneva
Switzerland
Tel: (+41) 22 718 65 65
Fax: (+41) 22 718 65 00
MADRID
Calle Serrano 73
28006 Madrid
Spain
Tel: (+34) 91 114 83 00
Fax: (+34) 91 114 83 01
MILAN
Via dei Bossi 4
20121 Milan
Italy
Tel: (+39) 02 89 63 17 13
Fax: (+39) 02 89 63 17 01
NEW YORK
Exane Inc.
640 Fifth Avenue
15th Floor
New York, NY 10019
USA
Tel: (+1) 212 634 4990
Fax: (+1) 212 634 5171
SINGAPORE
Branch of Exane Ltd
20 Collyer Quay
#07-02 Tung Centre
Singapore 049319
Tel: (+65) 6212 9059
Fax: (+65) 6212 9082
PARIS
ContactLab France, Sarl
12 rue du Helder
75009 Paris
France
Tel: (+33) 1 42 46 28 18
Fax: (+33) 1 74 18 05 55
MUNICH
ContactLab Deutschland, GmbH
Landwehrstrasse 61
80336 Munich
Germany
el: (+49) 89 41 11 23 444
Fax: (+49) 89 41 11 23 111
STOCKHOLM
Representative office of Exane SA
Nybrokajen 5
111 48 Stockholm
Sweden
Tel: (+46) 8 5629 3500
Fax: (+46) 8 611 1802
CONTACTLAB
MILAN
ContactLab Italy, S.p.A
Via Natale Battaglia, 12
20127 Milan
Italy
Tel: (+39) 02 28 31 181
Fax: (+39) 02 70 03 02 69
All Exane research documents are available to all clients simultaneously on the Exane website (www.exanebnpparibas-equities.com). Most published research is
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Important notice: Please refer to our complete disclosure notice and conflict of interest policy available on www.exane.com/compliance
This research is produced by one or more of EXANE SA, EXANE Limited and Exane Inc (collectively referred to as “EXANE") . EXANE SA is authorized by the Autorité
de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and regulated by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers ("AMF"). EXANE Limited is authorized and regulated by the Financial
Conduct Authority (“FCA”). Exane Inc is registered and regulated by the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"). In accordance with the requirements of
Financial Conduct Authority COBS 12.2.3R and associated guidance, of article 313-20 of the AMF Règlement Général, and of FINRA Rule 2241, Exane’s policy for
managing conflicts of interest in relation to investment research is published on Exane’s web site (www.exane.com). Exane also follows the guidelines described in
the code of conduct of the Association Francaise des Entreprises d'Investissement ("AFEI") on managing conflicts of interest in the field of investment research. This
code of conduct is available on Exane’s web site (www.exane.com).
This research is solely for the private information of the recipients. All information contained in this research report has been compiled from sources believed to be
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upon it, and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy.
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the above, accepts responsibility for its contents.
BNP PARIBAS has acquired an interest in VERNER INVESTISSEMENTS the parent company of EXANE. VERNER INVESTISSEMENTS is controlled by the
management of EXANE. BNP PARIBAS’s voting rights as a shareholder of VERNER INVESTISSEMENTS will be limited to 40% of overall voting rights of VERNER
INVESTISSEMENTS.

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