Sustainable Infrastructure and Asset Management

Transcription

Sustainable Infrastructure and Asset Management
Sustainable Infrastructure and
Asset Management
Kiyoshi KOBAYASHI
What is Asset Management?
„
The optimal allocation of the scare
budget between the new arrange-ment
of infrastructure and
rehabilitation/maintenance of the existing
infrastructure to maximize the value of
the stock of infrastructure and to realize
the maximum outcomes for the citizens
Asset management
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Pavement management (highway, runway)
Railway management
Bridge management
Facility management
Tunnel management
Water supply system management
Port facility management
Embankment management
Slope management
River facility/Dam facility management
Forest management
Dam Facility Management
„ Long-term Sustainable Infrastructure
„ Comprehensive management of
sedimentation systems
( environmental change, ecological impacts, riverbed degradation,
river morphology change, and coastal erosion )
„ Large-scale risks
( socio-economic change, volatility in sedimentation, green house effects )
Dam facilities based on renewal
duration and management points
Renewal
duration
Short
Several yrs Several 10 yrs
Facilities
Management
Others
points
Reduction of total Improvement of service
cost of Inspection,
level
Maintenance,
Technical Innovation
Repair and
Renewal
Long Life
Renewal duration will be
Reduction of Life
expanded by proper
Cycle cost
countermeasures
Mechanical
Electrical
Architectural
Long
Several 10 yrs Several 100 yrs
Reservoir
(Sedimentatio
n)
Extra long
Dam body
Occasional
Reservoir slope Inspection
Land slide
Immediate action
Earthquake
Reduction of
Inspection and
Maintenance cost
Risk assessment
No Renewal will be
necessary for extra long
duration and present value
of the renewal can not be
evaluated
Respond up to certain level
during construction period
Hierarchical asset management cycles
Plan
Do
Budget allocation
benchmarking
innovation
See
Plan
R/M
strategies
See
Do
Plan
R/M activities
See
Do
Probabilistic analysis of reservoir sedimentation
4000
Specific sediment
3
2
yield(m / km / year)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
0
1967
500
Year
KAWAMATA dam (Tone River)
„ Annual
record of specific
sediment yield can be plotted on
log-normal probability paper
using Weibull plot.
F(xi)=i/(N+1)
Non-exceeding probability F(%)
99.9
4500
99
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
1
0.1
0.01
1
10
102
103
104
105
Specific sediment yield
(m3/km2/year)
Expected gross storage capacity change
without sedimentation management
3
Capacity(100million )m
350
300
250
200
Total storage
capacity
Total
sedimentation
Existing storage
capacity
Without new dams
Sedimentation rate
0.24%/ yr
150
100
50
0
1900
Year
1950
2000
Japan
2050
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1900
Capacity(100millionm3)
All new proposal and under
construction projects included
2100
Total st orage
capacit y
Total
sedimentation
Without new dams
Sedimentation rate
0.42%/yr
Year
1950
2000
2050
Chubu Region
2100
Reservoir sedimentation in Sakuma dam
J-Power (EPDC)
1956 Power generation
Gravity concrete Height=155.5 m
320
平岡ダム
300
新豊根発電所放水口
280
201yr
260
101yr
クレスト敷高
EL246.5m
240
豊川用水
取水口
220
200
佐久間ダム建設前の河床高
昭和55年度最深河床高
0
5
10
180
予備放流水位
常時満水位
堆砂101年後
堆砂201年後
建設前河床勾配の1/ 2勾配で堆砂(泰阜ダムの実績値)
建設前河床勾配の1/ 3.2勾配で堆砂(平岡ダムの実績値)
平岡地区護岸高
天竜中学校構内
平岡PS放水位
佐久間発電所
取水口
15
20
ダムからの距離(km)
25
30
160
140
120
100
35
標高(ELm)
Future estimation of reservoir
sedimentation in Sakuma dam
Sedimentation management dams in Japan
Classification
Reducing sediment
flowing into
reservoirs
Place
Reduction of sediment production by hillside and valley works
Regulation of reservoirs and sediment by erosion control dams
and slit dams
Reduction of discharged sediment and river course stabilization
by channel works
End of
reservoirs
Sediment check
dam
End of
reservoirs
Sediment bypass
Asahi Dam, Miwa Dam, Koshibu Dam, Matsukawa
Dam, Yokoyama Dam
Sediment
sluicing
Sabaishigawa Dam
Dashidaira Dam-Unazuki Dam (Coordinated sluicing )
Inside
reservoirs
Density current
venting
Sediment flushing
Examples in Japan
Upstream
reservoirs
Sediment routing
Sediment
management
Details of sediment control measures
Inside
reservoirs
Regurally excavating and recycling for
aggregate or sediment supply to
downstream river
Sabo area, Changing from sediment check dams to
sediment control dams (slit dams)
Miwa Dam, Koshibu Dam, Nagashima Dam,
Matsukawa Dam, Yokoyama Dam 57dams
Non-gate botom outlets
(natural flushing)
Masudagawa Dam
Botom outlets for flood control
Koshibu Dam, Futase Dam, Kigawa Dam
Non-gate conduits with curtain wall
Katagiri Dam
Selective withdrawal works
Yahagi Dam
Drawdown
flushing
Sediment flushing outlet
Dashidaira Dam-Unazuki Dam (Coordinated flushing
)
Partial flushing
without
drawdown
Sediment scoring gate
Senzu Dam, Yasuoka Dam
Sediment scoring pipe
Ikawa Dam
Excavating &
Dreging
Recycling for concrete aggregate
Miwa Dam, Koshibu Dam, Sakuma Dam, Hiraoka Dam,
Yasuoka Dam
Soil improving material, Farm Land
filling, Banking material
Miwa Dam, Yanase Dam
Sediment replacing inside reservoir
Sakuma Dam
Sediment supplying to downstream rivers
Akiba Dam, Futase Dam, Miharu Dam, Nagayasuguchi
Dam, Nagashima Dam
Reservoir sedimentation
Upstream→
Coarse sediment
Fine sediment
←Dam body
Excavated and utilized
for Kobe Airport
Development of efficient and environmentally
compatible sediment management techniques
„ "Take", "Transport" and "Discharge"
-
-
Sediment flushing/sluicing and sediment bypassing
should be introduced more.
The sediment trucking and supply, and the
Hydro-suction Sediment Removal System (HSRS) are
needs to be improved furthermore and introduced as
supplementary measures.
Asset management
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„
Life cycle cost (LCC) minimization
Rehabilitation and Maintenance
from proactive maintenance to preventive
maintenance
Operation, Replacement, Expansion, Removal,
Real Option
Asset management technology 1
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Inspection technology
Inventory Database
Tool box
Performance curve (Markov matrix)
LCC evaluation (Markov decision model)
Computer systems
Asset management
technology 2
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Process evaluation/reengineering
Policy evaluation (outcome/output/input)
Performance-based asset management
contract
Citizen participation
Two-staged project
t0
Cost
t1
30
30 billion JPY
70 billion JPY
Benefit
three scenarios
1/3 18 billion JPY
1/3
1/ 3
90 billion JPY
0 billion JPY
70
t2
100 billion JPY
Cost-benefit analysis
B = (1/3) 180 + (1/3) 90 + (1/3) 0 = 90
C =
100
B - C = 90 -100 =
- 10
decline
Real Option
Additional cost 70 billion JPY
B – C = 180-70 = 110
Scenario 1
B – C = 90 – 70 =
20
Scenario 2
B – C = 0 - 70 = - 70
Scenario 3
decline
(1/3) 110+ (1/3) 20 + (1/30) 0 =43.3
Real Option = 43.3- 30 = 13.3 > 0
investment
Life cycle course decision making as a
real option
university
occupation
spouse
・・・・・
・・
integrity
responsibility
accountability