Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to

Transcription

R E F E R E N C E D A T A S E R I E S No. 1
July 2006
Energy,
Electricity
and
Nuclear Power
Estimates
for the Period
up to 2030
REFERENCE DATA SERIES No. 1
ENERGY, ELECTRICITY
AND NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES
FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
July 2006 Edition
INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY
VIENNA, 2006
ENERGY, ELECTRICITY AND
NUCLEAR POWER ESTIMATES
FOR THE PERIOD UP TO 2030
IAEA, VIENNA, 2006
IAEA-RDS-1/26
ISBN 92–0–107006–3
ISSN 1011–2642
Printed by the IAEA in Austria
July 2006
CONTENTS
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Grouping of countries and areas. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
Table 1.
Figure 1.
Table 2.
Table 3.
Figure 2.
Table 4.
Figure 3.
Table 5.
Figure 4.
Table 6.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Table 7.
Table 8.
Table 9.
Table 10.
Figure 7.
Table 11.
Nuclear power reactors in the world
(end of 2005) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12
Nuclear share of total electricity
generation in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Number of countries with nuclear
power reactors in operation or
under construction (end of 2005) . . . . . . . . 15
Estimates of total and nuclear
electrical generating capacity . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Total and nuclear electrical generating
capacity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
Estimates of total electricity generation
and contribution by nuclear power . . . . . . . 21
Percentage of electricity supplied
by nuclear power. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Estimates of total energy requirement
(EJ), percentage used for electricity
generation, and percentage supplied
by nuclear energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Estimates of total energy requirement . . . . 26
Total energy requirement (EJ) by fuel type
in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
Total energy requirement by fuel type
in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Breakdown of world total energy
requirement during the period
1970–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Fuel shares (%) of total energy
requirement in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Fuel use (EJ) for electricity
generation by fuel type in 2005 . . . . . . . . . 36
Percentage contribution of each
fuel type to electricity generation
in 2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37
Estimates of population growth by region. . 39
Population estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40
Estimates of total energy and electricity
requirement per capita . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43
Figure 8. Total energy requirement per capita . . . . . .
Figure 9. Total electricity requirement per capita . . . .
Table 12. Average annual growth rates during the
period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Figure 10.Average annual growth rates during the
period 1995–2005 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Table 13. Estimates of average annual
growth rates during the period
2005–2030 (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
44
46
49
50
53
INTRODUCTION
Reference Data Series No. 1 is an annual publication —
currently in its twenty-sixth edition — containing estimates
of energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to the
year 2030.
Nuclear data presented in Table 1 are based on actual
statistical data collected by the IAEA’s Power Reactor
Information System (PRIS). Energy and electricity data for
2005, however, are estimated, since the latest available
information from the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs of the United Nations is for 2003. Population data
originate from the World Population Prospects (2003
Revision), published by the Population Division of the UN
Department of Economic and Social Affairs, and the 2005
values are estimates.
The future growth of energy, electricity and nuclear
power up to the year 2030 is presented as low and high
estimates in order to encompass the uncertainties associated with the future. These estimates should be viewed
as very general growth trends whose validity must constantly be subjected to critical review.
The energy forecasts carried out in increasing numbers
over the last years by international, national and private
organizations are based on a multiplicity of different
assumptions and different aggregating procedures,
which make their comparison and synthesis very difficult.
The basic differences refer to such fundamental input data
as:
— World and regional scenarios of economic development;
— Correlation of economic growth and energy consumption;
— Assumptions on physical, economic and political
constraints applying to energy production and consumption;
— Future prices of different energy sources.
5
The projections presented in this booklet are based on
a compromise among:
— National projections supplied by each country for a
recent OECD/NEA study;
— Indicators of development published by the World
Bank in its World Development Indicators;
— Estimates of energy, electricity and nuclear power
growth continuously carried out by the IAEA in the
wake of recent global and regional projections made
by other international organizations.
The nuclear generating capacity estimates presented in
Table 3 are derived from a country by country ‘bottom-up’
approach. They are established by a group of experts participating each year in the IAEA’s consultancy on Nuclear
Capacity Projections and based upon a review of nuclear
power projects and programmes in Member States.
The low and high estimates reflect contrasting but not
extreme underlying assumptions on the different driving
factors that have an impact on nuclear power deployment.
These factors, and the ways they might evolve, vary from
country to country. The estimates presented provide a
plausible range of nuclear capacity growth by region and
worldwide. They are not intended to be predictive nor to
reflect the whole range of possible futures from the lowest
to the highest feasible.
In the low estimates, the present barriers to nuclear
power development are assumed to prevail in most countries during the coming three decades:
— Low economic and electricity demand growth rates in
OECD countries;
— Public opposition to nuclear power, leading to policy
decisions not to consider the nuclear option in spite of its
competitive costs and potential contribution to reducing
environmental impacts from electricity generation;
— Institutional and financing issues preventing the
implementation of previously planned nuclear programmes, in particular in countries in transition and in
developing countries;
6
— Inadequate mechanisms for nuclear technology
transfer and nuclear project funding in developing
countries.
The high estimates reflect a moderate revival of nuclear
power development that could result in particular from a
more comprehensive comparative assessment of the
different options for electricity generation, integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects. They are
based upon a review of national nuclear power programmes, assessing their technical and economic
feasibility. They assume that some policy measures would
be taken to facilitate the implementation of these programmes, such as strengthening of international cooperation, enhanced technology adaptation and transfer,
and establishment of innovative funding mechanisms.
These estimates also take into account the global concern
over climate change caused by the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and the signing of the recent Kyoto Protocol.
The data on electricity produced by nuclear power
plants is converted to joules based on the average efficiency of a nuclear power plant, i.e. 33 per cent; data on
electricity generated by geothermal heat is converted to
joules based on the average efficiency of a geothermal
power plant, i.e. 10 per cent. The conversion to joules of
electricity generated by hydropower or by the other nonthermal sources such as wind, tide, and solar is based on
the energy content of the electricity generated (the equivalent of assuming a 100 per cent efficiency).
The total energy requirement has been calculated by
summing the primary energy production, the net energy
trade minus changes in international bunkers and domestic stocks.
The values shown in Table 9 refer to primary energy
used for the generation of electricity. Owing to differences
in conversion efficiencies, the percentage values are different from the shares of electricity generation presented
in Tables 1 and 5.
7
Energy Units
1 MW(e) = 106 watts
1 GW(e) = 1000 MW(e) = 109 watts
1 GJ = 1 gigajoule = 109 joules
1 EJ = 1 exajoule = 1018 joules
1 EJ = 23.9 megatonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE)
1 TW·h = 1 terawatt-hour = 109 kW·h = 3.6 × 10–3 EJ
8
GROUPING OF COUNTRIES AND AREAS
The countries and geographical areas
included in each grouping are listed below
(IAEA Member States are denoted by an asterisk)
North America
Canada*
United States of America*
Latin America
Anguilla
Antigua and Barbuda
Argentina*
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Belize*
Bermuda
Bolivia*
Brazil*
Cayman Islands
Chile*
Colombia*
Costa Rica*
Cuba*
Dominica
Dominican Republic*
Ecuador*
El Salvador*
Grenada
Guadeloupe
Guatemala*
Guyana
Haiti*
Honduras*
Jamaica*
Martinique
Mexico*
Montserrat
Netherlands Antilles
Nicaragua*
Panama*
Paraguay*
Peru*
Puerto Rico
S.Georgia & S.Sandwich Islands
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia
Saint Pierre and Miquelon
Saint Vincent & the Grenadines
Suriname
Trinidad and Tobago
Turks and Caicos Islands
Uruguay*
Venezuela*
Western Europe
Andorra
Austria*
Belgium*
Cyprus*
Denmark*
Finland*
France*
Germany*
Gibraltar
Greece*
Greenland
Holy See*
Iceland*
Ireland*
Italy*
Liechtenstein*
Luxembourg*
Malta*
Monaco*
Netherlands*
Norway*
Portugal*
San Marino
Spain*
Svalbard and Jan Mayen Islands
Sweden*
Switzerland*
Turkey*
United Kingdom*
9
Eastern Europe
Albania*
Armenia*
Azerbaijan*
Belarus*
Bosnia and Herzegovina*
Bulgaria*
Croatia*
Czech Republic*
Estonia*
Georgia*
Hungary*
Kazakhstan*
Kyrgyzstan*
Latvia*
Lithuania*
Poland*
Republic of Moldova*
Romania*
Russian Federation*
Serbia and Montenegro*
Slovakia*
Slovenia*
Tajikistan*
The Frmr.Yug.Rep. of Macedonia*
Turkmenistan
Ukraine*
Uzbekistan*
Africa
Algeria*
Angola*
Benin*
Botswana*
Burkina Faso*
Burundi
Cameroon*
Cape Verde
Central African Republic*
Chad *
Comoros
Congo
Côte d'Ivoire*
Democratic Rep. of the Congo*
Djibouti
Egypt*
Equatorial Guinea
Eritrea*
Ethiopia*
Gabon*
Gambia
Ghana*
Guinea
Guinea-Bissau
Kenya*
Lesotho
Liberia*
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya*
Madagascar*
10
Malawi
Mali*
Mauritania*
Mauritius*
Mayotte
Morocco*
Mozambique
Namibia*
Niger*
Nigeria*
Reunion
Rwanda
Saint Helena
Sao Tome and Principe
Senegal*
Seychelles*
Sierra Leone*
Somalia
South Africa*
Sudan*
Swaziland
Togo *
Tunisia*
Uganda*
United Republic of Tanzania*
Western Sahara
Zambia*
Zimbabwe*
Middle East and South Asia
Afghanistan*
Bahrain
Bangladesh*
Bhutan
British Indian Ocean Territory
Cocos (Keeling) Islands
French Southern Territories
Heard Island & McDonald Islands
India*
Iran, Islamic Republic of*
Iraq*
Israel*
Jordan*
Kuwait*
Lebanon*
Nepal
Oman
Pakistan*
Qatar*
Saudi Arabia*
Sri Lanka*
Syrian Arab Republic*
T.T.U.T.J. of T. Palestinian A.
United Arab Emirates*
Yemen*
South East Asia and the Pacific
Australia*
Brunei Darussalam
Cook Islands
Fiji
Indonesia*
Kiribati
Malaysia*
Maldives
Marshall Islands*
Micronesia (Fed. States of)
Myanmar*
New Zealand*
Niue
Norfolk Islands
Northern Mariana Islands
Palau
Papua New Guinea
Pitcairn Islands
Samoa
Singapore*
Solomon Islands
Thailand*
Timor Leste
Tokelau
Tuvalu
US Minor Outlying Islands
Vanuatu
Wallis and Futuna Islands
Far East
Cambodia
China*
Dem. P.R. of Korea
Japan*
Korea, Republic of*
Lao P.D.R.
Macau, China
Mongolia*
Philippines*
Taiwan, China
Vietnam*
11
12
7
4
59
17
1
9
10
5
23
1
4
6
4
Eastern Europe
Armenia
Bulgaria
Czech Republic
Hungary
2
2
2
18
104
Number of Units
Western Europe
Belgium
Finland
France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Latin America
Argentina
Brazil
Mexico
North America
Canada
United States of America
Group and Country
376
2722
3368
1755
5801
2676
63363
20339
449
7588
8910
3220
11852
935
1901
1310
12599
99210
Total MW(e)
In Operation
TABLE 1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN THE WORLD (end of 2005)
2
1
1
Number of Units
1906
1600
692
Total MW(e)
Under Construction
2.5
17.3
23.3
13.0
45.3
22.3
430.9
154.6
3.8
54.7
69.5
22.1
75.2
6.4
9.9
10.8
86.8
780.5
42.7
44.1
30.5
37.2
55.6
32.9
78.5
31.0
3.9
19.6
44.9
32.1
19.9
6.9
2.5
5.0
14.6
19.3
Electricity Supplied by Nuclear
Power Reactors in 2005
Per cent of
TW.h
Total Electricity
13
443
369552
6572
47839
16810
425
2
9
56
20
3040
1800
1185
655
21743
2442
656
13107
Total MW(e)
15
2
1
1
31
6
1
15
Number of Units
27
3
1
21811
3000
866
3602
915
300
1900
2
8
1
1
655
3775
Total MW(e)
1
4
Number of Units
Under Construction
Notes:
(a) Including the following data in Taiwan, China:
— 6 units in operation with total capacity of 4904 MW(e); 2 units under construction with total capacity of 2600 MW(e);
— 38.4 TW.h of nuclear electricity generation, representing 20.3% of the total electricity generated.
World Total (a)
Far East
China
Japan
Korea, Republic of
India
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Pakistan
Africa
South Africa
Lithuania
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovakia
Slovenia
Ukraine
Group and Country
In Operation
TABLE 1. NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN THE WORLD (end of 2005) — continued
2625.9
50.3
280.7
139.3
2.4
15.7
12.2
10.3
5.1
137.3
16.3
5.6
83.3
15.5
2.0
29.3
44.7
2.8
2.8
5.5
69.6
8.6
15.8
56.1
42.4
48.5
Electricity Supplied by Nuclear
Power Reactors in 2005
Per cent of
TW.h
Total Electricity
78.5
FRANCE
69.6
LITHUANIA
SLOVAKIA
56.1
BELGIUM
55.6
48.5
UKRAINE
SWEDEN
44.9
KOREA R.
44.7
BULGARIA
44.1
ARMENIA
42.7
SLOVENIA
42.4
37.2
HUNGARY
32.9
FINLAND
32.1
SWITZERLAND
GERMANY
31.0
CZECH R.
30.5
29.3
JAPAN
UK
19.9
SPAIN
19.6
USA
19.3
15.8
RUSSIAN FED.
14.6
CANADA
8.6
ROMANIA
ARGENTINA
6.9
SOUTH AFRICA
5.5
MEXICO
5.0
3.9
NETHERLANDS
INDIA
2.8
PAKISTAN
2.8
BRAZIL
2.5
CHINA
2.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
Nuclear Share (%)
80.0
FIGURE 1. NUCLEAR SHARE OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY
GENERATION IN 2005
14
100.0
15
11
Far East
In Operation
Notes:
(1) May include countries having reactors already in operation.
(2) Total number of countries in each group that have nuclear power reactors in operation, or under construction.
223
27
World Total
57
25
Eastern Europe
Africa
29
27
Western Europe
2
45
Latin America
Number of Countries in Group
North America
Country Group
2
3
12
31
3
4
1
1
4
2
1
10
9
3
Under Construction (1)
Countries with Nuclear Power Reactors
Total (2)
TABLE 2. NUMBER OF COUNTRIES WITH NUCLEAR POWER REACTORS IN OPERATION OR UNDER CONSTRUCTION (end of 2005)
2
32
4
3
1
10
9
3
BLANK
17
466
104
300
146
822
Eastern Europe
Africa
Far East
Nuclear
369.6
76.1
3.5
1.8
48.0
124.2
4.1
111.8
GW(e)
2005
9.0
9.3
1.2
1.7
10.3
16.5
1.5
8.9
%
4314
4633
854
987
165
176
338
365
111
125
469
489
782
818
305
339
1289
1335
Total Elect.
GW(e)
381
390
81
83
10
11
1.8
1.8
48
50
122
124
4.1
4.3
114
116
GW(e)
2010 (a)
Nuclear
9
8.4
9
8
2.9
3.0
1.6
1.4
10
10
16
15
1.4
1.3
9
9
%
4943
5920
1003
1371
208
258
439
547
138
191
505
596
864
953
385
526
1400
1478
Total Elect.
GW(e)
Note:
(a) Nuclear capacity estimates take into account the scheduled decommissioning of the older units at the end of their lifetime.
4117
751
Western Europe
Low Estimate
High Estimate
276
Latin America
World Total
1252
Total Elect.
GW(e)
North America
Country Group
TABLE 3. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL GENERATING CAPACITY
423
520
119
145
0.9
17
27
2.1
4.1
68
76
91
129
6.3
7.3
120
131
GW(e)
2020 (a)
Nuclear
8.6
8.8
12
11
0.3
3.8
4.9
1.5
2.2
14
13
10
14
1.6
1.4
9
9
%
5709
7622
1169
1867
258
374
568
800
175
292
543
724
964
1121
485
802
1546
1643
Total Elect.
GW(e)
414
679
130
187
0.9
4.8
23
46
2.1
10.3
78
107
48
149
6.0
18
126
158
GW(e)
2030 (a)
Nuclear
7.3
8.9
11
10
0.3
1.3
4.1
5.8
1.2
3.5
14
15
5
13
1.2
2.2
8.2
10
%
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
GW(e)
1000
800
600
400
200
North
America
2030
2020
2010
2005
0
Latin
America
Western
Europe
FIGURE 2. TOTAL AND NUCLEAR ELECTRICAL
GENERATING CAPACITY
18
Eastern
Europe
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
Total Capacity - High Estimate
Total Capacity - Low Estimate
Nuclear Contribution - High Estimate
Nuclear Contribution - Low Estimate
Far East
19
BLANK
21
2995
1723
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Low Estimate
High Estimate
16930
4087
630
1240
2625.9
508.7
18.1
12.2
314.0
878.4
27.0
867.3
%
15.5
12.4
1.5
2.4
18.2
29.3
2.4
18.7
Nuclear
TW.h
2005
17818
19391
4280
4958
717
746
1346
1518
570
607
1797
1917
3177
3325
1187
1326
4743
4993
Total Elect.
TW.h
Nuclear
2782
2842
554
570
59
65
14
14
314
329
898
910
31
32
912
921
TW.h
2010
16
15
13.0
11.5
4.4
4.3
2.5
2.4
17.4
17.1
28.3
27.4
2.6
2.4
19.2
18.5
%
21242
27133
5231
7578
915
1064
1789
2407
740
961
2076
2629
3464
4280
1613
2103
5414
6111
Total Elect.
TW.h
Nuclear
3102
3803
820
1006
6
103
166
17
34
461
510
683
972
47
54
971
1056
TW.h
2020
15
14
15.7
13.3
0.5
5.8
6.9
2.3
3.5
22.2
19.4
19.7
22.7
2.9
2.6
17.9
17.3
%
25087
38191
6328
11303
1138
1510
2313
3672
931
1509
2358
3789
3756
5535
2206
3442
6057
7430
Total Elect.
TW.h
Nuclear
3074
5043
919
1325
6
31
150
299
18
85
545
748
374
1146
45
136
1017
1273
TW.h
2030
12
13
14.5
11.7
0.5
2.1
6.5
8.1
1.9
5.6
23.1
19.7
10.0
20.7
2.1
4.0
16.8
17.1
%
(*) The nuclear generation data presented in this table and the nuclear capacity data presented in Table 3 cannot be used to calculate average annual capacity factors for nuclear plants,
as Table 3 presents year-end capacity and not the effective capacity average over the year.
World Total
Far East
510
1116
Latin America
Africa
4631
Total Elect.
TW.h
North America
Country Group
TABLE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ELECTRICITY GENERATION AND CONTRIBUTION BY NUCLEAR POWER (*)
35
30
25
(%)
20
15
10
5
North
America
2030
2020
2010
2005
0
Latin
America
Western
Europe
FIGURE 3. PERCENTAGE OF ELECTRICITY SUPPLIED
BY NUCLEAR POWER
22
Eastern
Europe
Nuclear Low Estimate
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
Nuclear High Estimate
Far East
23
BLANK
25
56.2
29.7
48.5
22.6
Eastern Europe
Africa
473.5
2005
32.7
35.9
29.1
30.3
15.5
36.2
36.5
22.8
34.6
6.0
5.4
0.4
0.4
6.1
13.6
1.0
8.4
506
537
112
121
25
27
55
59
32
35
59
62
73
75
35
37
116
122
% Used for % Supplied Total Energy
Elect. Gen. by Nuclear Consumption
2010
32
33
34
37
30
29
29
31
16
16
36
36
37
38
22
23
35
35
6.0
5.8
5.4
5.1
1.2
1.2
0.5
0.5
5.8
5.8
13.4
13.2
1.0
0.9
8.6
8.3
589
700
137
172
31
39
70
85
40
47
67
79
77
84
44
56
124
140
2020
33
35
35
40
31
29
30
33
17
19
36
39
37
43
23
24
37
37
5.7
5.9
6.5
6.4
0.2
1.6
2.1
0.5
0.8
7.5
7.0
9.6
12.7
1.2
1.1
8.6
8.2
683
907
164
237
38
53
89
121
47
62
75
98
82
94
55
83
133
159
Note:
(*) Total energy requirement is estimated as production of primary energy plus net trade (import – export) minus international bunkers and stock changes.
World Total
Low Estimate
High Estimate
70.7
Western Europe
102.1
30.8
Latin America
Far East
112.9
Total Energy
Consumption
North America
Country Group
33
38
35
43
32
30
31
36
18
22
37
46
36
49
25
27
38
39
4.9
6.1
6.1
6.1
0.2
0.6
1.8
2.7
0.4
1.5
7.9
8.3
5.0
13
0.9
1.8
8.4
8.7
% Used for % Supplied
Elect. Gen. by Nuclear
2030
TABLE 5. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT (EJ), PERCEN TAGE USED FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION, AND PERCENTAGE
SUPPLIED BY NUCLEAR ENERGY (*)
240
220
200
180
160
140
EJ
120
100
80
60
40
20
North
America
2030
2020
2010
2005
0
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
FIGURE 4. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT
26
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
Total - High Estimate
Total - Low Estimate
Nuclear - High Estimate
Nuclear - Low Estimate
Far East
27
BLANK
29
26.55
11.06
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
159.69
29.38
9.57
18.67
121.83
52.27
4.27
11.62
5.90
11.78
10.01
1.15
24.84
Liquids
110.02
8.88
5.45
11.66
2.73
27.17
19.06
7.57
27.49
Gases
40.43
3.60
2.84
5.77
15.16
1.77
2.98
5.07
3.24
Biomass (b)
10.73
1.97
0.24
0.57
0.34
1.10
1.80
2.35
2.36
Hydro
Notes:
(*) Total energy requirement = production of primary energy plus net trade (import – export) minus international bunkers and stock changes.
(a) Solids do not include commercial wood.
(b) The column headed 'Biomass' includes commercial wood, combustible renewables, waste and other biomass products.
(c) The column headed 'Renewables' includes geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy and net electricity trade.
World Total
Far East
5.43
14.08
Africa
44.95
Latin America
Solids (a)
North America
Country Group
TABLE 6. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT (EJ) B Y FUEL TYPE IN 2005 (*)
28.65
5.55
0.20
0.13
3.43
9.58
0.29
9.46
Nuclear
2.15
0.50
0.22
0.02
0.02
-0.15
0.68
0.30
0.56
Renewables (c)
473.49
102.15
22.59
48.51
29.71
56.15
70.66
30.81
112.91
Total
120
100
80
EJ
60
40
20
0
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
FIGURE 5. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT B Y FUEL TYPE
IN 2005
30
Africa
Liquids
Solids
Gases
Hydro
Nuclear
Renewables
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
Biomass
Far East
31
500
450
400
350
300
EJ
250
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
Year
FIGURE 6. BREAKDOWN OF WORLD TOTAL ENERGY
REQUIREMENT DURING THE PERIOD 1970–2005
32
1990
Liquids
Solids
Gases
Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
1995
2000
2005
33
BLANK
35
42.39
28.76
33.73
Far East
World Total
25.73
51.17
18.89
23.94
19.85
20.98
14.16
3.73
22.00
Liquids
23.24
8.70
24.12
24.04
9.19
48.39
26.97
24.57
24.35
Gases
8.54
3.52
12.56
11.90
51.02
3.15
4.21
16.45
2.87
Biomass (b)
2.27
1.93
1.07
1.18
1.14
1.96
2.55
7.61
2.09
Hydro
Notes:
(*) Total energy requirement = production of primary energy plus net trade (import – export) minus international bunkers and stock changes.
(a) Solids do not include commercial wood.
(b) The column headed 'Biomass' includes commercial wood, combustible renewables, waste and other biomass products.
(c) The column headed 'Renewables' includes geothermal, wind, solar, tidal energy and net electricity trade.
18.27
19.69
Eastern Europe
38.49
37.58
Western Europe
45.70
Africa
39.81
Latin America
Solids (a)
North America
Country Group
TABLE 7. FUEL SHARES (%) OF TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT IN 2005 (*)
6.05
5.43
0.41
0.45
6.10
13.56
0.96
8.38
Nuclear
0.45
0.49
0.97
0.03
0.07
-0.27
0.96
0.98
0.50
Renewables (c)
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Total
36
120.74
28.52
6.64
5.55
28.65
10.73
0.20
0.13
3.43
9.58
0.29
9.46
Nuclear
1.97
0.24
0.57
1.10
1.80
16.36
Notes:
(a) The column headed 'Thermal' is the total for solids, liquids, gases, biomass and waste.
(b) The column headed 'Renewables' includes geothermal, wind, solar and tidal energy.
World Total
Far East
2.36
2.35
0.34
Hydro
4.50
17.51
Africa
15.09
Eastern Europe
4.41
Western Europe
27.71
North America
Thermal (a)
Latin America
Country Group
TABLE 8. FUEL USE (EJ) FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL TYPE IN 2005
2.12
0.50
0.21
0.01
0.03
0.01
0.48
0.32
0.56
Renewables (b)
36.54
7.09
17.14
5.01
22.05
26.95
7.37
40.09
162.23
Total
37
38.31
51.41
64.04
78.81
85.35
88.23
73.81
66.04
Western Europe
Eastern Europe
Africa
Far East
World Total
Notes:
(a) The column headed 'Thermal' is the total for solids, liquids, gases, biomass and waste.
(b) The column headed 'Renewables' includes geothermal, wind, solar and tidal energy.
66.48
Latin America
Thermal (a)
North America
Country Group
17.66
13.38
10.68
12.86
18.47
17.70
17.05
58.37
14.14
Hydro
15.51
12.45
1.46
2.40
18.22
29.33
2.42
18.73
Nuclear
TABLE 9. PERCENTAGE CONTRIBUTION OF EACH FUEL TYPE TO ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN 2005
0.79
0.36
1.08
0.32
0.31
0.04
2.22
0.90
0.65
Renewables (b)
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
100.00
Total
BLANK
39
888
Africa
6450
World Total
1.44
0.86
1.41
1.87
2.30
-0.17
0.44
1.50
1.04
(*) Projection figures are the arithmetic average between low and high estimates.
1719
405
Far East
1674
468
406
Eastern Europe
558
Latin America
Western Europe
332
2005
2010
2020
2030
6827
1778
428
1816
984
402
475
595
348
1.14
0.68
1.12
1.65
2.08
-0.20
0.29
1.26
0.94
7535
1872
469
2091
1188
393
484
659
379
0.99
0.52
0.91
1.42
1.90
-0.22
0.19
1.04
0.87
8123
1914
500
2325
1398
380
488
711
407
0.75
0.22
0.64
1.07
1.64
-0.35
0.09
0.76
0.71
Growth Rate (%/a)
Growth Rate (%/a)
Growth Rate (%/a)
Growth Rate (%/a)
Million Inhabitants
Million Inhabitants
Million Inhabitants
Million Inhabitants
2010 — 2020
2020 — 2030
1995 — 2005
2005 — 2010
North America
Country Group
TABLE 10. ESTIMATES OF POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION (*)
2500
2000
Millions of Inhabitants
1500
1000
500
North
America
2030
2020
2010
2005
0
Latin
America
FIGURE 7. POPULATION ESTIMATES
40
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
Africa
Far East
41
BLANK
43
33
29
56
59
73
Far East
World Average
138
Africa
151
Eastern Europe
55
Latin America
Western Europe
340
North America
Country Group
Energy
Requirement per
Capita (GJ/cap.)
2.6
2.4
1.6
0.7
0.6
4.2
6.4
2.0
13.9
Electricity
Requirement per
Capita (MW·h/cap)
2005
74
63
58
30
33
146
154
58
332
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
79
68
64
32
35
155
158
62
350
Energy
Requirement per
Capita (GJ/cap.)
2.6
2.4
1.7
0.7
0.6
4.5
6.7
2.0
13.6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.8
2.8
1.7
0.8
0.6
4.8
7.0
2.2
— 14.3
Electricity
Requirement per
Capita (MW·h/cap)
2010
78
73
65
34
33
170
160
66
326
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
93
92
82
41
39
202
173
84
368
2.6
2.4
1.7
0.7
0.6
4.5
6.7
2.0
13.6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.8
2.8
1.7
0.8
0.6
4.8
7.0
2.2
— 14.3
Electricity
Requirement per
Capita (MW·h/cap)
2020
Energy
Requirement per
Capita (GJ/cap.)
TABLE 11. ESTIMATES OF TOTAL ENERGY AND ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPI TA
84
86
75
38
34
197
169
77
326
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
112
124
106
52
44
258
193
116
391
3.1
3.3
2.3
1.0
0.7
6.2
7.7
3.1
14.9
4.8
—
—
—
—
—
4.7
5.9
3.0
1.6
1.1
— 10.0
— 11.3
—
— 18.2
Electricity
Requirement per
Capita (MW·h/cap)
2030
Energy
Requirement per
Capita (GJ/cap.)
400
300
GJ per capita
200
100
North
America
2030
2020
2010
2005
0
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
FIGURE 8. TOTAL ENERGY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
44
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
High Estimate
Low Estimate
Far East
45
20
18
16
14
10
8
6
4
2
2030
2020
2010
0
2005
MW·h per capita
12
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
Eastern
Europe
FIGURE 9. TOTAL ELECTRICITY REQUIREMENT PER CAPITA
46
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
2030
2020
2010
2005
High Estimate
Low Estimate
Far East
47
BLANK
49
1.3
World Average
1.9
1.4
2.3
0.9
-0.2
Eastern Europe
Africa
Far East
0.4
Western Europe
1.0
1.5
Latin America
Population
North America
Country Group
Total Energy
Requirement
1.2
2.2
3.4
3.3
4.3
4.9
0.4
1.2
2.3
3.0
6.0
4.1
4.7
3.9
0.8
2.0
3.6
1.8
Total Electricity
Requirement
TABLE 12. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 1995–2005 (%)
1.7
2.5
—
10.1
0.8
3.0
1.1
4.1
1.3
Nuclear Energy
Consumption
0.7
3.1
—
6.4
0
0.7
0.1
3.7
-0.4
Nuclear Capacity
Population
Total Energy Requirement
Total Electricity Requirement
Nuclear Energy Requirement
12
Annual Growth Rate (%)
6
0
-6
North
America
Latin
America
Western
Europe
FIGURE 10. AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES
DURING THE PERIOD 1995 –2005
50
Eastern
Europe
Africa
Middle East &
South Asia
South East Asia
& the Pacific
Far East
51
BLANK
53
0.9
1.3
World Average
1.8
0.8
-0.3
Eastern Europe
Africa
0.4
0.2
Western Europe
Far East
1.0
Latin America
0.8
Population
North America
Country Group
1.5
1.9
2.1
2.4
1.9
1.2
0.6
2.3
0.7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.6
3.4
3.5
3.7
3.0
2.2
1.2
4.0
1.4
Total Energy
Requirement
1.6
1.8
2.4
2.5
2.4
1.3
0.9
2.8
1.1
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.3
4.2
3.6
4.4
4.4
3.2
2.5
4.6
1.9
Total Electricity
Consumption
TABLE 13. ESTIMATES OF AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES DURING THE PERIOD 2005—2030 (%)
0.6
2.4
8.8
1.5
2.2
-3.4
2.1
0.6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.6
3.9
11.9
8.1
3.5
1.1
6.7
1.5
Nuclear Energy
Production
0.5
2.1
7.9
0.7
1.9
-3.7
1.5
0.5
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.5
3.7
10.9
7.2
3.2
0.7
6.0
1.4
Nuclear Capacity
I N T E R N AT I O N A L AT O M I C E N E R G Y A G E N C Y
VIENNA
ISBN 92-0-107006-3
ISSN 1011-2642

Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to

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