„Energiewende“ – Trois ans après

„Energiewende“ – Trois ans après
Prof. Dr. Marc Oliver Bettzüge
Table ronde, France Stratégie, October 2nd, 2014
1
Disclaimer
The following slides were used as part of a presentation at France Stratégie
in Paris on October 2nd, 2014.
They are incomplete without the oral commentary. They may only be quoted
after prior consent of EWI.
All copyrights are reserved.
L‘ „Energiewende“ ?
24/4/2014, Celle, Prof. Dr. Marc Oliver Bettzüge
Nuclear phasephase-out:
out: Unforced asset depreciation,
depreciation, and
creation of regional imbalance
What market prices look like:
What scarcity really looks like:
Ø Marginal
Cost:
37 EUR/MWh
Ø Marginal
Cost:
41EUR/MWh
Ø Marginal
Cost: 42
EUR/MWh
Frankreich
Source: EWI. Selected model results for 2022.
Ø Marginal
Cost:
42 EUR/MWh
Ø Marginal
Cost:
44 EUR/MWh
Frankreich
Source: EWI. Selected model results for 2022.
When keeping uniform bidding zone for Germany:
much closer cooperation with neighbouring countries required
Source: EWI (2014)
RESRES-E: expensive, and no reduction of GHGGHG-emissions
EEGEEG-differential cost (= FiT ./. Market Value)
Differential cost of existing RES-E [ct/kWh]
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Small Hydro
Biomass
Geothermal
Wind onshore
Wind offshore
Source: BDEW (2013): Erneuerbare Energien und das EEG: Zahlen, Fakten, Grafiken.
Photovoltaics
Myth:
Myth: „Levelized Cost of Electricity“
Electricity“ (LCOE)
Correlation between wind-/solar feed-in and market value
Source: Jägemann (2014)
Mitigation economics in the German power sector
Hypothetical results without import-/export effects
700
500
2012
450
600
400
500
350
TWh
250
300
200
€/t CO2
300
400
150
200
100
100
50
0
0
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Percentage reduction 2020 vs. 1990
Nuclear
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
Fuel Oil
Storage
Hydro
Wind
PV
Biomass
Other fuels
CO2 mitigation cost
7
Source: EWI (2014)
A tale of politically robust redistribution – for the time being
Political support for
RES-E state-aid in Germany
Levy
instead of
state
budget
Exemption
rules
for heavy
industry
Germanwide levy
instead of
individual
levies for
the federal
states
German
locations
instead of
EU
competition
Critical elements of „Energiewende“ agenda
1. Blending into EU energy policy for 2020-2030
•
EU-ETS, EU-RES-E-targets and support scheme
•
Leveraging intra-EU synergies in CO2 -mitigation
•
Cross-border „Bidding Zones“, incl. capacity mechanism design (if/how)
?
2. Drastically rethinking RES-E-Support (EEG)
•
RES E-targets „out of the money“ – but still not fundamentally revised
•
Reducing and refinancing difference cost (excess cost of RES-E-support)
•
Integrating RES-E into the European electricity market
( )
?
3. Improving generation adequacy where needed
•
No nationwide need for action
•
Regional situation partially critical, esp. in Southern Germany
?
4. Reducing state-induced price distortions
•
Avoiding economic inefficiency
•
Avoiding further redistributional effects
(?)
Thank you very much for your attention.