LNG demand

Prix du gaz en Europe
Catherine Verdier – Direction Marchés
AFG – Bilan & perspectives gazières – 8 mars 2012
Plan
Aujourd’hui coexistent 2 mécanismes de prix en Europe, les contrats
LT et le spot. Pourquoi ?
Situation difficile pour de nombreux acheteurs
Volonté de l’Europe de créer un grand marché européen du gaz
C’est difficile. Pourquoi ?
La vision TOTAL de l’évolution du marché gaz européen
2 - GEN/SMI/EM/MEP
Coexistence of 2 pricing systems in Europe
A European market historically characterized by :
 long-term contracts between producers and gas distribution companies
 prices based on non-gas indices
Deregulation in Europe and the gas « bubble », expected to facilitate
the emergence of a new type of transaction with :
 a shift from long-term contracts towards more spot short-term transactions
 a gas-to-gas competition
 the emergence of liquid and transparent gas indices
3 AFG – 8 mars 2012
European Prices: forward Gas Year
Current Market
Gas Year 2009
Gas Year 2010
15.6
Arab Spring
90
14.0
80
12.5
70
10.9
60
9.4
50
7.8
Japan earthquake &
Germany moratorium
40
6.2
Oil-Indexed
4 AFG – 8 mars 2012
NBP (UK Gas)
Coal Equivalent Europe
Jan-12
Oct-11
Jul-11
Apr-11
Jan-11
Oct-10
Jul-10
Apr-10
Jan-10
Oct-09
Jul-09
Apr-09
Jan-09
3.1
Oct-08
20
Jul-08
4.7
Apr-08
30
Jan-08
p/Th
Gas Year 2011
$/MMBtu
Gas Year 2008
100
Strong growth in global gas demand : +2.5% per year
between 2010-2020
North America
Europe
Bcf/d
90
Gas demand
+1.5% CAGR
Asia
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
90
90
Gas demand
+6.2% CAGR
Gas demand
+1.8% CAGR
60
60
60
30
30
30
10
20(e)
10
Domestic supply
Increase of gas consumption
in the North American
energy mix, moderated by
energy efficiency programs
LNG imports/exports
to remain marginal
5 AFG – 8 mars 2012
20(e)
Pipeline imports
10
20(e)
Existing LNG contracts
 Demand driven by power
generation, especially in
Eastern Europe and Turkey
 Gas, best alternative to meet
increasing energy needs
 China as a new driver
of LNG demand
 Real but limited global
impact of Fukushima
accident
LNG demand : +5% per year between 2010-2020,
tightening markets
Global LNG supply / demand
Mt/y
600
~100
~50
Other
demand
Strong LNG demand in both
traditional and emerging markets
400
~15
Complexity of LNG projects
increasing tensions on supply
200
Asian
demand
Tightening markets supportive
of gas prices in Europe and Asia
2005
2010
2015(e)
LNG nominal capacities
Existing facilities
Approved projects
2020(e)
2025(e)
2030(e)
LNG supply
LNG supply based on
other identified projects
LNG demand may be constrained by supply
6 AFG – 8 mars 2012