THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT THEORETICAL ROAD PRICING

THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT THEORETICAL ROAD PRICING

THE IMPACTS OF DIFFERENT THEORETICAL
ROAD PRICING SCHEMES IN BELGIUM
Inge Mayeres (VITO)([email protected])
Marie Vandresse (Federal Planning Bureau) ([email protected])
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
1
Outline
» PLANET model
» Long run transport projections for Belgium: reference scenario
» Passenger transport
» Freight transport
» Congestion and emissions
» Comparison between taxes and marginal external costs
» Evaluation of the impact of various theoretical pricing schemes
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
2
The PLANET model
» Characteristics
» Long run (time horizon 2030)
» Simultaneous modelling of passenger and freight transport
» Cost-benefit analysis of transport policies
» Does not include a network model
» Federal Planning Bureau & SPF Mobilité et Transports, Perspectives à long
terme de l’évolution des transports en Belgique: projection de référence,
Planning Paper 107 (www.plan.be).
» Federal Planning Bureau & SPF Mobilité et Transports, Analyse de l’impact
de différents schémas théoriques d’une taxe routière en Belgique, Working
Paper 14-09 (www.plan.be).
» Extension of model in LIMOBEL project (financed by Belgian Science
Policy)
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
3
Reference scenario - passengers(I)
100%
6%
4%
26%
80%
32%
Purpo
se
School
Work
Other
Total
2005
(pkm,
billion)
Evolution
between
2005 and
2030
8
34
83
+29%
+18%
+35%
125
+30%
60%
Moto
Bus, tram, metro
Covoiturage
40%
58%
Voiture en solo
Train
52%
Marche à pied/vélo
20%
6%
8%
0%
2005
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
2030
4
Reference scenario - freight (II)
100%
12%
80%
15%
13%
14%
3%
2005
(tkm, billion)
Evolution
between
2005 and
2030
National
Export
Import
Transit
31
14
14
10
+40%
+73%
+99%
+52%
Total
70
+60%
3%
60%
Rail
Navigation intérieure
Camionnette
Camion
40%
72%
67%
20%
0%
2005
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
2030
5
Reference scenario (III)
» Congestion:
reduction of average speed on road network:
» -31% between 2005 and 2030 in peak period
» -17% between 2005 and 2030 in off-peak period
Shift from peak to off-peak
140
» Emissions:
120
index 2005 =
100
100
CO
80
Gaz à effet de serre
NOx
PM
60
COVNM
SO2
40
20
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
2025
2030
6
Reference scenario (IV)
Taxes versus marginal external costs
Tax/external costs
2005
2020
2030
Peak
Car
Truck
Van
25%
18%
8%
10%
8%
3%
7%
6%
2%
Off-peak
Car
Truck
Van
133%
72%
42%
70%
51%
22%
50%
37%
15%
2005
Rail
Passengers
Freight
Inland navigation
2020
2030
Tax
External
cost
Tax
External
cost
Tax
External
cost
€/pkm
€/tkm
-4.6
-0.3
0.03
0.12
-4.4
-0.3
0.03
0.09
-4.4
-0.3
0.02
0.1
€/tkm
0
0.4
0
0.3
0
0.3
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
7
Internalisation scenario
Other modes
90
80
Accompanying
measures
eurocent/vkm
70
60
50
Truck
40
30
Van
20
Car
10
0
2020
2020
2030
2030
Peak
Off-peak
Peak
Off-peak
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
Environmental
tax freight rail
and inland
navigation
Abolishment
subsidies
public
passenger
transport
Abolishment
-Eurovignette
-Traffic tax
-Registration
tax
-Employers’
contribution
for public
transport
-Revenue
recycling
8
Alternative scenarios
For these 3 scenarios:
Abolishment for
concerned vehicles of
- Eurovignette
- Registration tax
-Traffic tax
35
30
eurocent/vkm
25
20
Peak
15
+ Revenue recycling
Off-peak
+ For the
HDV+LDV+CAR
scenario:
10
5
0
Truck
Van
Car
Scenario HDV
Scenario HDV+LDV
Scenario HDV+LDV+CAR
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
Abolishment of
- Subsidies public
passenger transport
- Employers’ contribution
for public transport
9
Impacts on passenger transport
(2030, % change w.r.t. reference scenario)
INTERNALISATION
HDV
HDV+LDV
HDV+LDV
+CAR
Passenger km
-4%
-5%
Peak
Off-peak
-6%
+2%
-7%
+3%
On foot/bicycle
Rail
Car solo
Car pool
Bus/tram/metro
Motor
+42%
-11%
-14%
+21%
-42%
+5%
+42%
-49%
-4%
+10%
-51%
+3%
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
10
Impacts on freight transport
(2030, % change w.r.t. reference scenario)
Scenario
INTERNALISATION
HDV
HDV+LDV
HDV+LDV
+CAR
Ton km
+3%
0%
+2%
+1%
Peak vkm
Off-peak vkm
-8%
-2%
-1%
+2%
-9%
+1%
-5%
-1%
Ton km
Truck
Van
Inland navigation
Rail
+3%
-6%
+7%
-1%
-2%
+2%
+4%
+2%
+1%
-2%
+5%
+3%
+1%
-3%
+2%
+1%
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
11
Impacts on congestion, environment, tax revenues
(2030, % change w.r.t. reference scenario)
Scenario
INTERNALISATION
HDV
HDV+LDV
HDV+LDV
+CAR
Peak road speed
Off-peak road speed
+48%
+3%
0%
0%
+3%
0%
+19%
0%
Marginal external congestion costs
Peak
Off-peak
-59%
-7%
-2%
+1%
-7%
+1%
-32%
-2%
Environmental damage
-6%
0%
0%
-2%
Transport tax revenue
Passenger transport
Freight transport
+239%
+203%
+423%
+6%
0%
+39%
+30%
0%
+182%
+117%
+104%
+184%
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
12
Impact on social welfare (NPV, mio euro2000)
300000
250000
Reduction labour taxes
200000
197759
150000
Tax revenue freight
transport
100000
Tax revenue passenger
transport
89677
Environment
50000
Producers
26404
4142
0
Consumers
-50000
Total welfare impact
-100000
INT
HDV
HDV+LDV
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
HDV+LDV+CAR
13
Conclusions (I)
» Internalisation of external costs leads to important welfare gains
» Positive effects:
» Reduction of congestion
» Environmental benefit (but relatively small)
» Additionnal tax revenues
» Negative effects:
» Welfare reduction for transport users
» Operational costs
» Full internalisation difficult to implement
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
14
Conclusions (II)
» Scenario HDV
» Small impact on congestion, small but negative impact on
environmental quality (shift to vans)
» Welfare impact is small and sign depends on use of revenues
» Scenario HDV+LDV
» Positive welfare impact, size depends on use of revenues
» Scenario HDV+LDV+CAR
» 45% of welfare gain of full internalisation
» Scenario includes lower exploitation subsidies for public passenger
transport in order to avoid capacity problems
» Use of revenues is important
09/12/2010
© 2010, VITO NV
15