Liberals and PQ tied in Quebec

 MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Liberals and PQ tied in Quebec Tight PQ majority possible TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
TORONTO MARCH 5th, 2014 ‐ In a random sampling of public opinion among 951 Quebec voters taken by The Forum Poll™ the evening of the day on which the Quebec provincial election was called, equal proportions, about 4‐in‐10, will vote for  Equal proportions, about 4‐
in‐10, will vote for the the Liberals (40%) or the Parti Quebecois (38%) which represents a statistical tie on Liberals (40%) or the Parti this sample size. The Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ) takes a tenth of the vote (12%), Quebecois (38%) which somewhat fewer opt for Quebec Solidaire (QS ‐ 7%) while very few will vote for the represents a statistical tie on Green Party (2%) or for any other (1%). this sample size.
The Liberal party is especially popular with the oldest (52%), the less wealthy ($20K  If these results are projected to $40K ‐ 46%), Anglophones (91%) and Allophones (83% ‐ caution; small sample), in up to seats in a 125 seat Quebec City (46%) and among those who oppose independence for Quebec (60%). National Assembly, the PQ are destined to capture 63, The PQ draws support especially from Boomers (55 to 64 ‐ 46%), regions of the or a one set majority.
province outside Montreal and Quebec City (44%), on the North Shore (45%) and among those who support independence (75%).  All three major party leaders draw the approval of about CAQ draws support from the youngest (20%), the wealthier ($80K to $100K ‐ 18%, one third of voters (Marois ‐ $100K to $250K ‐ 20%) and in Quebec City (22%). 34%, Couillard ‐ 34%, Legault Of note, 4‐in‐10 past CAQ voters will vote Liberal this time (39%), while one seventh ‐ 32%), but Pauline Marois will vote PQ (15%). Just 4‐in‐10 will vote CAQ again this time (41%). has the most negative net favourable (approve minus Possibility of tight PQ majority disapprove) at ‐ 24, If these results are projected up to seats in a 125 seat National Assembly, the PQ are compared to ‐13 for Philippe destined to capture 63, or a one seat majority. The Liberals would claim 58 seats, Couillard and ‐17 for Francois while CAQ and QS would take just 2 seats each. Legault.
Marois has lowest favourables All three major party leaders draw the approval of about one third of voters (Marois ‐ 34%, Couillard ‐ 34%, Legault ‐ 32%), but Pauline Marois has the most negative net favourable (approve minus disapprove) at ‐ 24, compared to ‐13 for Philippe Couillard and ‐17 for Francois Legault. 1 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
One third support independence for Quebec One third of voters (34%) say yes when asked "Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country?", a question derived from the original Scottish Independence Referendum question. Support for independence is especially common to the youngest (41%), Francophones (39%), PQ voters (71%), QS supporters (71%) and on the South Shore (39%). Opposition to independence (66% in total) is especially characteristic of the oldest (71%), mid‐income groups ($40K to $60K ‐ 71%), Anglophones (95%) and Allophones (77%), Liberal supporters (96%), CAQistes (85%) and in Quebec City (73%). Of note, 3‐in‐10 PQ voters do not support independence (29%) whereas just one twentieth of Liberal voters (4%) and one seventh of CAQ voters do (15%). “At this point, this is anybody's race. The leaders are tied in voter preference, and practically tied in seats. The successful party in this campaign will be the one with the best ground war," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff. Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at [email protected] or at (416) 960‐9603. 2 TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
HIGHLIGHTS:
 One third of voters (34%) say yes when asked "Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country?", a question derived from the original Scottish Independence Referendum question.
 “At this point, this is anybody's race. The leaders are tied in voter preference, and practically tied in seats. The successful party in this campaign will be the one with the best ground war," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.
180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
Methodology The Forum Poll™ was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 951 randomly selected Québécois 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on March 5th, 2014. TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/‐ 3%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data. This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto. With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian‐owned Forum Research is one of the country’s leading survey research firms. This Forum Poll™and other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp 3 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Provincial Election Voting Preference ‐ Trending % MEDIA INQUIRIES:
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Liberal PQ CAQ QS Green ON Other th
Mar 5 , 2014 (n=951) Oct. 22nd, 2013 (n=1094) Sept. 13th, 2013 (n=1179) 2012 Election 40 38 42 31 38 36 35 32 12 13 12 27 7 8 7 6 2 2 2 1 0 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Seat Distribution ‐ Trending % th
Mar 5 , 2014 (n=951) Oct. 22nd, 2013 (n=1094) Sept. 13th, 2013 (n=1179) 2012 Election Liberal PQ CAQ QS 58 56 64 50 63 63 55 54 2 4 4 19 2 2 2 2 Quebec Independence Opinion – Trending Sample Yes % th
Mar 5 , 2014 Sep 26th, 2012 951 462 34 34 No 66 66 Quebec Provincial Party Leader Approval Rating Trending (% Approve) % th
951 Oct 22 , 2013 nd
1094 th
1179 Sep 13 , 2013 Marois 34 36 32 Sample Mar 5 , 2014 Couillard 34 35 42 Legault 32 30 33 4 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Vote Preference ‘Which party are you most likely to vote for in the provincial election on April 7?’ + ‘Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?’ [Decided / Leaning] Age / Gender % 910 40 38 18‐
34 104 26 31 35‐
44 143 44 33 45‐
54 193 40 42 55‐
64 230 37 46 12 20 16 11 7 2 0 1 20 3 0 1 3 3 0 1 4 2 0 1 S Shore 160 34 Total Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other MEDIA INQUIRIES:
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TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
65+ Male Female 240 52 37 438 38 40 472 41 37 9 8 13 12 4 1 0 2 2 1 0 0 6 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 Region / Language % Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other Total Mon QC ROC 910 40 439 42 144 46 327 34 N Shore 167 34 726 36 Non‐
Francophone 184 89 38 38 24 44 45 43 41 4 12 9 22 12 11 13 13 2 7 7 5 7 7 8 7 1 2 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 Francophone 5 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Household Income % MEDIA INQUIRIES:
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910 40 112 34 $20‐
$40K 179 46 38 36 36 41 40 37 38 22 12 13 10 13 6 18 20 5 7 12 7 5 7 9 5 16 2 4 1 1 3 1 3 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 Total <$20K Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other $40‐
$60K 162 41 $60‐
$80K 117 43 $80‐
$100K 82 35 $100‐
$250K 130 34 $250K+ 17 43 TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Past Vote % Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other Total PLQ PQ CAQ QS PVQ ON Other 910 40 38 12 7 2 0 1 321 87 5 7 0 1 0 0 271 9 80 5 5 1 0 0 141 39 15 41 2 2 0 1 No 49 12 25 8 53 1 0 0 20 9 56 0 4 26 0 5 13 17 66 16 0 0 0 0 22 34 21 14 15 6 0 10 Support for Independent Quebec % Total Yes Sample Liberal, or PLQ Parti Quebecois, or PQ Coalition Avenir Quebec, or CAQ Quebec Solidaire, or QS Green Party, or PVQ Option Nationale, or ON Other 910 40 38 12 7 2 0 1 289 621 4 60 75 17 6 16 13 3 2 2 0 0 1 1 6 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Approval of Pauline Marois ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pauline Marois is doing as premier?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Total 18‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Male Female 951 34 58 8 109 28 57 14 152 29 65 6 200 39 56 5 240 38 54 8 250 39 57 4 453 34 59 7 498 34 57 9 Region / Language % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 351 39 51 N Shore 179 43 44 S Shore 172 35 56 11 13 8 $40‐
$60K 167 31 64 $60‐
$80K 122 39 55 $80‐
$100K 86 38 51 $100‐
$250K 130 35 61 5 6 11 4 Total Mon QC ROC 951 34 58 447 31 62 153 31 65 8 7 3 765 40 51 Non‐
Francophone 186 8 88 9 5 Francophone Household Income % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 34 58 118 31 53 $20‐
$40K 186 37 59 8 15 5 Total <$20K $250K+ 18 16 66 19 Current Vote Preference % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Total PLQ 951 34 58 8 410 6 90 4 PQ 290 91 5 4 CAQ QS PVQ ON Other 93 10 82 8 50 26 64 10 30 13 72 15 12 37 44 20 25 14 64 23 7 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Support for Independent Quebec % Total Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 34 58 8 Yes MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
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416.960.9603
No TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
299 652 69 16 23 75 8 8 8 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Approval of Philippe Couillard ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the job Philippe Couillard is doing as Leader of the Opposition? [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Total 18‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Male Female 951 34 48 18 109 28 48 23 152 37 39 25 200 31 55 13 240 34 52 15 250 44 45 11 453 35 51 14 498 34 45 21 Region / Language % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 34 48 447 38 46 153 38 47 351 29 51 N Shore 179 28 56 18 17 15 20 17 23 $40‐
$60K 167 39 45 $60‐
$80K 122 29 54 $80‐
$100K 86 35 49 $100‐
$250K 130 23 61 16 17 16 16 Total Mon QC ROC S Shore 172 31 46 765 29 53 Non‐
Francophone 186 56 24 17 20 Francophone Household Income % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 34 48 118 40 36 $20‐
$40K 186 40 45 18 24 15 Total <$20K $250K+ 18 37 37 27 Current Vote Preference % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Total PLQ PQ 951 34 48 18 410 66 17 17 290 7 83 9 CAQ QS PVQ ON Other 93 28 52 20 50 12 65 23 30 30 44 27 12 34 60 6 25 28 46 25 9 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Support for Independent Quebec % Total Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 34 48 18 Yes MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
No TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
299 652 9 47 78 33 13 20 10 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Approval of Francois Legault ‘Do you approve or disapprove of the job Francois Legault is doing as Leader of the Coalition Avenir Quebec or CAQ?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Total 18‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Male Female 951 32 49 19 109 32 53 15 152 34 43 23 200 31 49 20 240 30 49 21 250 33 49 18 453 38 47 15 498 26 50 23 Region / Language % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 32 49 447 34 47 153 32 50 351 30 50 N Shore 179 27 54 19 19 18 20 19 Total Mon QC ROC S Shore 172 32 47 21 765 33 49 Non‐
Francophone 186 27 47 18 26 Francophone Household Income % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 32 49 118 27 50 $20‐
$40K 186 29 51 19 23 20 Total <$20K $40‐
$60K 167 39 42 $60‐
$80K 122 29 51 $80‐
$100K 86 41 46 $100‐
$250K 130 31 55 19 20 13 13 $250K+ 18 37 53 10 Current Vote Preference % Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know Total PLQ 951 32 49 19 410 32 49 19 PQ 290 20 64 15 CAQ QS PVQ ON Other 93 75 13 12 50 27 64 10 30 10 53 37 12 51 28 21 25 25 40 35 11 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Support for Independent Quebec % Total Sample Approve Disapprove Don't know 951 32 49 19 Yes MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
No TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
299 652 23 37 60 43 18 20 12 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com Support for Independent Quebec ‘Do you agree Quebec should be an independent country?’ [All Respondents] Age / Gender % MEDIA INQUIRIES:
Lorne Bozinoff, President
[email protected]
416.960.9603
TORONTO
March 5th, 2014
Total 18‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65+ Male Female Sample Yes No 951 34 66 109 41 59 152 30 70 200 32 68 240 32 68 250 29 71 453 35 65 498 32 68 Region / Language % Sample Yes No Total Mon QC ROC N Shore S Shore Francophone Non‐Francophone 951 34 66 153 27 73 351 37 63 447 33 67 179 35 65 172 39 61 765 39 61 186 10 90 Household Income % $20‐
$40K 186 34 66 Total <$20K Sample Yes No 951 34 66 118 35 65 $40‐
$60K 167 29 71 $60‐
$80K 122 38 62 $80‐
$100K 86 36 64 $100‐
$250K 130 36 64 $250K+ 18 29 71 Current Vote Preference % Sample Yes No Total PLQ PQ 951 34 66 290 71 29 410 4 96 CAQ QS PVQ ON Other 93 15 85 50 71 29 30 29 71 12 72 28 25 27 73 For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960‐9603 Fax: (416) 960‐9602 E‐mail: [email protected] 13 180 Bloor Street W., #1400
Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com