Evaluation of the Education Benefit Program of PNAFN in
Transcription
Evaluation of the Education Benefit Program of PNAFN in
République Tunisienne Ministère des Affaires Sociales Evaluation of the Education Benefit Program of PNAFN in Tunisia VISA du Conseil National de la Statistique N° 002/2014 EVALUATION REPORT (01/08/2013 – 06/30/2014) Version 2.0 30 September 2014 Jan Ostermann, PhD, Duke University, USA Martine Bellanger, PhD, EHESP Paris, France Volker Grzimek, PhD, Berea College, USA Andrew Weinhold, MPH, Duke University, USA Amy Hobbie, MPH, Duke University, USA Hosni Nemsia, ISTIS, Tunisie Tom Ricketts, PhD, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, USA Nancy Hill, PhD, Harvard University, USA 1 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table of contents List of abbreviations ......................................................................................................................... 4 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 5 Executive summary ........................................................................................................................... 6 1. Context ..................................................................................................................................... 8 2. Introduction to the evaluation ................................................................................................ 10 3. Consistency with UNEG norms for evaluations ....................................................................... 12 4. Overview of methods ............................................................................................................. 13 5. Development of a poverty model ........................................................................................... 14 Summary ....................................................................................................................................... 14 Conceptual approach .................................................................................................................... 14 Model estimation .......................................................................................................................... 15 6. Sampling and data collection .................................................................................................. 20 Sampling of beneficiary households.............................................................................................. 20 Selection of comparison households ............................................................................................. 20 Key informant interviews .............................................................................................................. 21 Surveys with local decision makers ............................................................................................... 22 Household surveys ......................................................................................................................... 23 Focused review of other education-focused transfer programs ................................................... 24 7. Results - Part I: Relevance ....................................................................................................... 25 Relevance of a program to increase school enrollment and retention ......................................... 25 Relevance of a program that targets poor and vulnerable households........................................ 27 Summary of relevance ................................................................................................................... 30 8. Results - Part II: Implementation ............................................................................................ 31 Program administration and implementation .............................................................................. 31 Program eligibility and (non) conditionality of benefits................................................................ 32 Oversight and information flow .................................................................................................... 32 Capacity of local social welfare offices ......................................................................................... 35 Comparisons with other education-focused transfer programs ................................................... 36 Summary of program implementation ......................................................................................... 38 9. Results - Part III: Targeting ...................................................................................................... 39 The concepts of inclusion and exclusion error............................................................................... 39 2 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Program coverage ......................................................................................................................... 40 Assessment of program targeting by key informants ................................................................... 41 Local decision makers’ perception of program targeting ............................................................. 42 Characteristics of children in beneficiary households ................................................................... 46 Economic wellbeing of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households............................................ 51 Other characteristics of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households .......................................... 57 Estimates of exclusion error .......................................................................................................... 59 Targeting experiences from other cash transfer programs .......................................................... 60 Summary of program targeting .................................................................................................... 61 10. Results - Part IV: Impact .......................................................................................................... 62 Expectations of program impact among key informants.............................................................. 62 Social workers’ perception of program impact ............................................................................. 65 Recommendations by social workers to increase program impact .............................................. 66 Impact on household budgets and education expenses ............................................................... 70 School attendance and school performance ................................................................................. 74 School progression, grade repetition, and drop-out ..................................................................... 75 Estimates of impact from other cash transfer programs .............................................................. 80 Summary of program impact ........................................................................................................ 80 11. Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 81 Immediate recommendations ....................................................................................................... 81 Short-term recommendations ....................................................................................................... 83 Medium-term recommendations .................................................................................................. 84 12. Works cited ............................................................................................................................. 88 13. Appendix................................................................................................................................. 95 3 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT List of abbreviations AMG BCS BEPP BTS CCT CRES DGPS EPI ISTIS MAS MICS MOE P1 … P9 PNAFN PPAS S1 … S9 TDR UNESCO UNICEF UTSS WHO Assistance Médicale Gratuite Budget and Consumption Survey Bureau des Etudes, de la Planification et de la Programmation Back to school education benefit (annual) Conditional cash transfer program Centre de Recherches et des Etudes Sociales Direction Générale de la Promotion Sociale Expanded Programme on Immunization Institut de Sondage et de Traitement de l’Information Statistique Ministry of Social Affairs Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey Ministry of Education Primary School, levels 1-9 Programme d'aide aux familles nécessiteuses PNAFN programme d’allocations scolaires (monthly) Secondary School, levels 1-4 Termes de Référence de la mission United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization United Nations Children’s Fund Union Tunisienne de la Solidarité Sociale World Health Organization 4 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Introduction The objective of this report is to summarize the findings of an evaluation of a program that provides a monthly financial assistance for the education of children in families that are benefiting from Tunisia’s Programme National d'Aide aux Familles Nécessiteuses (PNAFN; National Program of Assistance to Needy Families). The objective of the evaluation was to assess the targeting of PNAFN’s Programme d’Allocations Scolaires (PPAS; PNAFN’s education benefit program), to estimate its impact on households’ investment in children’s education and children’s educational outcomes, and to provide practical recommendations for enhancing the program’s effectiveness. The evaluation was conducted between August 2013 and June 2014 by Duke University (North Carolina, USA) in collaboration with the Institut de Sondage et de Traitement de l’Information Statistique (ISTIS; Tunis, Tunisia) and partners at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Berea College, and Harvard University in the United States and the École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique (EHESP) in France. This report summarizes the evaluation activities, the methodological approach, and the findings and recommendations resulting from the program’s evaluation. o o o o o o o Section 1 provides a summary of the PPAS program and describes the context of the evaluation. Section 2 describes the logic model of the program and provides a general overview of the evaluation strategy. Sections 3 and 4 summarize the methodological approach, including the development of a poverty model that was used to describe the geographic variation in poverty and characterize the relative economic wellbeing of beneficiary households. Sections 5 and 6 describe the sampling strategy for household surveys with beneficiary households and matched non-beneficiary comparison households and the types of data collected from key informants, households, and local decision makers. Sections 7, 8, 9 and 10 describe the results of the evaluation with respect to the program’s relevance, implementation, targeting, and impact. Section 11 provides recommendations to improve the program’s effectiveness. Appendices include the Terms of Reference, the questionnaires used to collect the data, and a comparison of key characteristics of the PPAS program with other education-focused transfer programs. This evaluation’s findings and recommendations will enable policy makers in Tunisia to enhance the program’s implementation, targeting and effectiveness, in order to improve the educational outcomes of children in poor families. 5 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Executive summary In 2007 the Ministry of Social Affairs (MAS) launched a program intended to aid children from poor and disadvantaged families to receive schooling. The program provides a monthly financial assistance for the education of children in families that are benefiting from Tunisia’s Programme National d'Aide aux Familles Nécessiteuses (PNAFN). The PNAFN Programme d’Allocations Scolaires (PPAS) currently covers nearly 80,000 children from more than 40,000 families. This report summarizes the findings of an evaluation of the program’s relevance, targeting and impact, and provides recommendations to increase the program’s effectiveness. The multi-faceted, mixed-methods evaluation approach combined information from in-depth interviews with key informants about the program, household surveys with beneficiary households and comparison households that do not benefit from the program, surveys with local decision makers who determine households’ eligibility for the program, and administrative program data, census data, and nationally representative sample survey data. Below we summarize the results of the evaluation, and recommendations to strengthen the program and improve its effectiveness. Relevance: National survey data showing high rates of grade repetition and drop-out before the completion of a full course of primary schooling suggest a need for programs to improving educational performance and attainment of children in Tunisia. Substantial variation in educational outcomes suggests that efforts should be targeted at poorer families, those with other vulnerabilities such as disabled household members, those with lower education among the heads of households, and families residing in rural areas. Great variation in educational outcomes between rural and urban areas and by age and grade level, gender differences in drop-out rates at older ages, and sub-optimal educational outcomes even among children from middle-income families suggest that multiple different approaches may be needed to broadly improve grade progression and reduce rates of school drop-out. Implementation: The implementation of PPAS on the basis of the administrative infrastructure of the PNAFN program suggests low marginal cost of program administration, but also limits to the program’s scale, scope, and efficacy. Specifically, an exclusive focus on PNAFN households limits the program’s coverage rate, and exclude children in non-PNAFN households who may also be at risk of drop-out. Vague eligibility criteria and a lack of conditionality of PPAS benefits limit the program’s evaluability as well as efficacy. The evaluation identified substantial regional variation in program implementation, capacity constraints at local offices, and limited communication of local and national decision makers with other stakeholders in children’s education. Targeting: The lack of explicit eligibility criteria that determine a household’s eligibility for PPAS precludes a precise estimate of inclusion and exclusion errors. At present, the only consistently implemented eligibility restriction is a household’s eligibility for PNAFN. On average, households benefiting from PPAS tend to be poorer than the national average and poorer than neighboring households who do not benefit from financial assistance for their children’s schooling; however, there is substantial geographic variation in the extent to which the program appears to target the poorest populations, and in the extent to which beneficiaries of monthly benefits differ from households who receive only annual back-to-school benefits. Broadly defined eligibility criteria such as having a child age 6-24 in the household imply inclusion errors among beneficiary households of 6 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 10.5%, while the program’s limit of 3 beneficiary children per household results in an exclusion error of 23.6% of the program budget. If program eligibility were limited to children enrolled in school and continued benefit receipt were dependent on children’s continued enrollment in school, an estimated 23.4% of beneficiary households would not be eligible for the program, whereas the exclusion error decreases to 10.6% of the budget. Any additional restrictions imposed on households or children to be eligibility for PPAS benefits are associated with a substantial increase in the estimates of inclusion error and a concurrent decrease in exclusion error. The program’s objectives need to be clarified in order to optimize program targeting. Impact: Interviews with program stakeholders indicated little or no expectations of a measurable impact of PPAS on educational outcomes. While analyses of household survey data generally support this expectation, there is some indication of positive program effects on households’ investment in education and potentially on children’s educational outcomes. In simple comparisons, beneficiary households indicated lower educational expenditures and poorer educational outcomes than non-beneficiary comparison households. This finding is consistent with the program’s focus on poorer and disadvantaged households, who face greater barriers to education and educational achievement. However, detailed econometric analyses indicate that, after controlling for households’ economic characteristics, attitudes toward child education, education of the head of household, geographic variation, and other characteristics, beneficiary households actually spent more money on education for each child that is currently enrolled in school, and there were trends towards a positive effect of program benefits on educational outcomes. However, the effect was small, occurred only during the year in which the household first received benefits, and did not continue over time; instead there are indications that children in beneficiary households continue to fare worse than children in other households, with respect to educational expenditures and educational outcomes. On the basis of the findings from the key informant interviews, surveys with local social welfare offices, household surveys with beneficiary households and comparison households, and a review of literature on other education-focused cash transfer programs we derived a variety of immediate, short-term, and medium-term recommendations to strengthen the program’s implementation and effectiveness. Among the recommendations are the following: • • • • • • • • Clarification of the program's objectives, especially the disambiguation between educational outcomes vs. poverty reduction Sensitization of beneficiary households to the objectives of the program Clarification of eligibility criteria, and regular re-certification and enforcement of eligibility Greater standardization of information flow and oversight, and closer collaboration between MAS and the Ministry of Education (MOE), including the development of a joint information system to track eligibility and educational performance Re-evaluation of the program's relationship with other national programs, and of the program’s exclusive focus on children in PNAFN households Alignment of program benefits with the objectives, including potentially varying benefit amounts for different levels of schooling, by geographic region, or by household need Alignment of program resources with the objectives, to ensure that the scale and scope of the program are supported by adequate resources and capacity at local social welfare offices Orientation on successfully implemented cash transfer programs in other countries 7 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 1. Context PNAFN was initiated in 1987, and now covers approximately 235,000 families across Tunisia. The program provides 110 dinars per month to each eligible family (1 Tunisian Dinar equals approximately 0.60 US Dollars and 0.45 Euro). In order to be eligible for PNAFN, a family must provide proof that the head of the household is unable to work due to old age or disability. Eligibility is assessed by social specialists based in delegation-level offices of the Direction Regionale de la Promotion Sociale (Regional Directorate for Social Promotion). Local and regional committees review applicant profiles and hand down final decisions on PNAFN enrollment. Household eligibility is reviewed every two years, while beneficiaries are required to visit their local office annually for official renewal of benefits. Families that receive PNAFN support also automatically receive an Assistance Médicale Gratuite (AMG-II; Free Medical Care) card that entitles them to subsidized health care at public health centers. In addition to PNAFN, in 2007 the Ministry of Social Affairs (MAS) launched a program intended to aid children from PNAFN families to receive schooling in order to improve children’s educational outcomes and reduce drop-out. The program provides monthly monetary transfers worth 10 dinars per child enrolled in school for up to three children per family. This transfer is the program around which the current evaluation is centered. In this evaluation report, the program is referred to as the PNAFN Programme d’Allocations Scolaires (PPAS). This acronym was created by the evaluation team for the sake of clarity within this report. PPAS has grown steadily in recent years. In 2011, benefits were paid for 60,365 children from 31,593 PNAFN households; as of December 2013 the program reached 79,613 children from 41,482 PNAFN households. Aside from photo verification and proof of PNAFN enrollment, each child must have proof of previous grade completion or enrollment in a new grade level when first applying for PPAS. Thereafter, updated documents or the child’s birth certificate may be used to renew eligibility. On paper, PPAS eligibility criteria include school enrollment; in practice, the option to use a birth certificate for re-certification makes the program more of a means-tested transfer program, since continued school enrollment or attendance are neither tracked nor required. The monthly education benefit complements another existing aid program that focuses on enabling needy students from PNAFN families and other low-income households to purchase school supplies. In this evaluation report we refer to this program as the back-to-school (BTS) program. Prior to 2011, BTS provided in-kind support, whereas since 2011, the BTS assistance has taken the form of direct monetary transfers in the amount of 30 Dinars per child enrolled in school, also for up to three children per family. Rather than monthly, this benefit is allocated at the beginning of the school year, when one-time expenses for school supplies tend to be high. This benefit also applies to university students, who receive 100 Dinars per year. For the 2013-2014 school year, 309,805 of these transfers were distributed, representing a total budget of almost 9.3 million Dinars. The application period for this back-to-school aid includes July and August, a period during which time each child must provide proof of enrollment and proof of need (PNAFN enrollment or a home visit from a social specialist). According to these eligibility criteria, every child that qualifies for the monthly cash transfer should also qualify for the back-to-school transfer. Other interventions are also implemented nationally by ministerial structures to assist needy students with in-kind aid such as the national campaign to collect books, free transportation in rural areas, school lunch assistance, 8 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT and others. While the PPAS evaluation was conducted in the context of these other programs and interventions, it was not designed to separately estimate the relative efficacy of those interventions on school drop-out. As part of the cooperation program between the Ministry of Social Affairs and UNICEF for the period of 2012-2013, in the area of "Strengthening the system of social protection of children in Tunisia," the Ministry of Social Affairs (Bureau of Studies, Planning and Programming) commissioned a study to evaluate the impact of PNAFN’s education benefit program, and to make recommendations for enhancing the effectiveness of this program. This study was conducted by Duke University (North Carolina, USA) with technical and financial support from UNICEF. It was overseen by a steering committee consisting of the following members: o o o o o o o Bureau des Etudes, de la Planification et de la Programmation (BEPP; Mr Hafedh Bouktif, Mme Maha Mezrioui et Mr Hassen Chedly) Direction Générale de la Promotion Sociale (DGPS; Mr Mohamed Zribi et Mme Najet Dkhil) Centre de Recherches et des Etudes Sociales (CRES; Mr. Nidhal Ben Cheikh et Mr. Adnan Lassoued) Ministère de l’Education (Mr Hedi Saidi et Mme Ahlem Bouchiba) Ministère de la Femme et de la Famille (Mr Sami Yahiaoui) Institut National de la Statistique (Mr Taha Khsib) Bureau UNICEF Tunis (Mr Georges Gonzales et Mr Samir Bouzekri) In May 2013, two Duke faculty members met with the steering committee and other informants to assess the evaluability of the PPAS program, outlined an evaluation plan, and submitted an evaluation proposal. A multi-disciplinary team, including local and international partners, implemented the PPAS evaluation between August 2013 and June 2014. The evaluation team consisted of the following members: o o o o o o o o Jan Ostermann, PhD, Duke University, North Carolina, USA Martine Bellanger, PhD, EHESP Paris, France Andrew Weinhold, MPH, Duke University, North Carolina, USA Amy Hobbie, MPH, Duke University, North Carolina, USA Volker Grzimek, PhD, Berea College, Kentucky, USA Hosni Nemsia, MS, ISTIS, Tunis, Tunisia Tom Ricketts, PhD, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA Nancy Hill, PhD, Harvard University, Massachusetts, USA This version of the report incorporates detailed comments and requests for revisions from a peer review committee appointed by the steering committee for the PPAS evaluation. At Duke University, the evaluation was conducted with support from the Center for Health Policy and Inequalities (CHPIR) and the Duke Global Health Institute (DGHI). 9 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 2. Introduction to the evaluation To guide the evaluation, we developed a logic model for the program that describes the situation that the program is intended to address, the inputs and outputs of the program, and the expected results. The logic model is shown in Figure 1. The evaluation addressed each component of this logic model. Figure 1. Program logic model The assessment of program relevance addresses the issue of whether there is a need for a program to improve the educational outcomes of children from poor households. Specifically, it answers questions such as: • When do children drop out of school? • What is the relationship between poverty and educational outcomes? The assessment of inputs describes the implementation of the program and assesses its targeting. It answers questions such as: • Who benefits from the program but should not? • Who should benefit from the program, but does not benefit? The assessment of program outputs assesses questions such as: • What is the impact of the education benefit on households’ budgets? • How does the benefit amount compare to the cost of children’s education? Finally, the assessment of results describes whether the program has an impact on children's education. It answers questions such as: • Are children in beneficiary households more likely to go to school? • Are children in beneficiary households more likely to drop out of school? 10 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT To answer these questions, we implemented a multi-faceted, mixed-methods evaluation approach. As shown in Figure 2, the evaluation approach combined information from: • • • • • • in-depth interviews with key informants about the program, household surveys with beneficiary households and comparison households that do not benefit from the program, surveys with local decision makers who determine households’ eligibility for the program, administrative program data, census data, and nationally representative sample survey data. We also conducted a focused literature review of other education-related cash transfer programs. Figure 2. Combining a variety of data sources to assess program relevance, targeting and impact Enquêtes beneficiaires Enquêtes nonbeneficiaires Recensement Enquête sur le budget et consommation Pertinence Ciblage Impact Entretiens avec décideurs locaux Entretiens avec parties prenantes MICS, Enquête l’emploi PNAFN données 11 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 3. Consistency with UNEG norms for evaluations Every effort was made to ensure that the evaluation conforms to the guidelines from the United Nations Evaluation Group (UNEG): “Norms for Evaluation in the UN System.”1 Consistent with the UNEG norms, the evaluation took on a broad focus, including examining relevance (“Are we doing the right thing”), considering effectiveness (“Are we doing it right”), and identifying options for improvement (“Are there better ways of achieving the results?”). The evaluation team was made up of independent professionals with multidisciplinary expertise and evaluation experience, without vested interest in the results of the evaluation. The evaluation was impartially planned, and implemented with methodological rigor. A mixed methods approach, including qualitative and quantitative data collection and primary and secondary data analyses of a variety of sources, was used for the evaluation. Divergent views among interested parties are reflected in the evaluation report, and every effort was made to present evidence, findings, conclusions, and recommendations in a balanced way. The evaluation process was inclusive, involving relevant government agencies and other stakeholders; it used transparent methodological approaches; and was conducted in a way that fostered local evaluation capacity building. A pre-evaluation mission was used to meet key stakeholders, to assess evaluability, and to plan the design of the evaluation. A capacity building workshop was held at the end of the evaluation to share evaluation methods and findings with stakeholders, policy makers and other interested parties. To ensure sensitivity to beliefs, manners and customs of the social and cultural environments in which the evaluation was conducted, an established local survey company implemented household surveys and surveys with local decision makers. Approval for the evaluation methodology and implementation was obtained from Tunisia’s National Statistics Council. To protect participant identities, all data were anonymized prior to analysis. De-identified data are available for secondary analysis to key stakeholders. Adequate financial and logistical resources were provided to allow for the evaluation to operate effectively and with due independence, and regular communication with an evaluation steering committee, representatives of relevant government agencies, and other stakeholders ensured an enabling environment for the evaluation. The final report accounts for comprehensive feedback received on an interim report from a peer-review committee. 12 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 4. Overview of methods Figure 3 provides an overview of the methods employed in this evaluation; detailed methods are described in the following sections. First, we used nationally representative survey data from the 2011/12 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) and the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey (BCS) to assess the relevance for a program to improve the educational outcomes and reduce dropout of children in poor families in Tunisia. Next, we used Tunisia’s 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey (BCS) data to develop a poverty model that would allow us to estimate the relative economic wellbeing of households, as well as geographic variation in the distribution of poverty. The BCS was designed only to provide regional estimates; however, the evaluation required estimates of poverty at lower levels of geographic aggregation. In Tunisia, regions are split into gouvernorates, which are composed of delegations. To develop poverty estimates at the gouvernorate and delegation levels we also incorporated data from the 2004 Census, the 2005 BCS, and the 2010 Employment survey. Third, we combined delegation-level estimates of poverty with administrative data from PPAS to randomly select 50 delegations for household surveys. To develop the survey instruments we used information from key informant interviews and existing household surveys in Tunisia, and reviewed the literature on education-focused transfer programs. We then conducted household surveys with 20 beneficiary households and 20 non-beneficiary households in each delegation. In addition we conducted surveys with local decision makers in each delegation. Finally, we combined the data collected from administrative and survey data, key informant interviews, beneficiary and non-beneficiary household surveys, and surveys with local decision makers to evaluate program implementation, targeting, and impact. Figure 3. Overview of methods 13 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 5. Development of a poverty model The evaluation of program targeting depends on an accurate characterization of households’ economic status. At the individual household level, only an accurate definition of each household as either “poor” or “not poor” would allow for a precise determination of inclusion error among beneficiary households and exclusion error among non-beneficiary households. However, predictions at the individual household level are subject to error. Therefore, instead of attempting to classify each household as either poor or not poor, this evaluation created a continuous measure of households’ relative economic wellbeing. The continuous measure allows for better comparisons of the economic wellbeing of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, relative to each other and relative to other households. It also allows for the comparison of the relative economic wellbeing across different geographic areas. Summary Consistent with Tunisia’s official method for establishing poverty thresholds, this evaluation used a household’s “estimated per-capita annual expenditures, minus extraordinary expenses” as a measure of economic status. However, unlike the official method, this evaluation does not classify individual households as either poor or not poor. Poverty is not an easily-defined construct, and any individual-level binary poverty estimate is likely to misclassify a substantial number of poor households as not poor, and vice versa. Instead, the approach employed here retained the full variability in economic wellbeing in national survey data and among households who participated in this evaluation. We used national survey data to develop a poverty model that describes the associations between various observable household characteristics and annual per-capita expenditures. The poverty model was subsequently applied to any data that did not contain expenditure data, to estimate each household’s economic wellbeing relative to other households. The approach implies that this evaluation relies on a ranking of households rather than an absolute determination of poverty, with the advantage that the measure is not likely to be sensitive to changes in the official definition of poverty, or other changes, such as inflation for staple goods, that may have similar effects on all households’ expenditures. Conceptual approach The goal was to use nationally representative “reference data” to develop a robust statistical model that describes a household’s economic wellbeing as a function of a variety of characteristics. The poverty model is subsequently applied to “target data” that do not contain a poverty measure but contain other characteristics that Figure 4. Conceptual approach for the poverty model allow for an estimate of each household’s economic status. To accomplish this goal, we developed a model of annual per-capita expenditures that included only variables that are available in both the reference and target data. The approach is illustrated in Figure 4. 14 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Model estimation We used household data from Tunisia’s 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey (BCS) and both variance-weighted least squares (VWLS) and quantile regression (QR) methods to estimate the association between households’ annual per-capita expenditures, minus extraordinary expenses, as the dependent variable and a variety of household assets, household composition, and other household characteristics as covariates. The public release version of the 2010 BCS data, provided by Tunisia’s National Institute of Statistics, contained the variables necessary for this analysis. The following variables entered the poverty model: • Presence of household assets o Radio recorder, television, satellite dish, bookshelf, refrigerator, freezer, stove, washer, dishwasher, air conditioner, computer, internet, fixed-line phone, mobile phone, car, motorcycle, bicycle • Physical characteristics of the household o Type of house (villa/apartment/studio vs. all others) o Number of rooms (1, 2, 3, 4, or 5+ rooms) o Connection to water (Sonede) and natural gas o Flush toilet o Bathroom with hot water o Kitchen with sink o Electric heating • Household composition o Number of children ages 0-17 (1, 2, 3, 4, 5+) o Number of young adults ages 18-24 (0, 1, 2, 3+) o Number of adults ages 25-59 (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5+) o Number of adults ages 60+(0, 1, 2+) • Characteristics of household members o Number of adults ages 18-59 unable to work o Average # of months worked, per person o Head of family has secondary education (yes/no) • Indicator variables for each region The dependent variable was transformed using the natural log. Separate models were estimated for urban (communal) and rural (non-communal) areas. We compared the distribution of actual expenditures with the distributions of predicted values of annual per-capita expenditures obtained from simultaneous-quantile regressions centered on the 15th, 25th, and 50th percentiles, as well as VWLS models (see Figure 5). In VWLS models, residuals from ordinary least squares regression models were used as weights in subsequently estimated variance-weighted regression models with the same specification. Household weights included with the public release dataset were used to ensure the national representativeness of estimates. The resulting distributions suggest that quantile regressions tend to predict a greater concentration of households at the lower end of the expenditure distribution, i.e., the curves are shifted to the left and tend to over-estimate poverty rates. By contrast, VWLS tends to predict a lower concentration of households at the lower end of the expenditure distribution, i.e., the curve is shifted to the right and tends to underestimate poverty rates. Note that the 50th percentile curve and the VWLS curve overlap in Figure 5. 15 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 5. Comparison of variance-weighted least squares and quantile regression models Non-communal .001 .0015 Communal 0 .0005 15th percentile 25th percentile 50th percentile VWLS Actual expenses 0 2000 4000 6000 0 Predicted annual per-capita expenditures, in Dinars 2000 4000 6000 Predicted annual per-capita expenditures, in Dinars After comparing the distributions of estimated per-capita expenditures from each model with the actual per-capita expenditures we decided on the use of VWLS estimates as a conservative (low) estimate of poverty (blue line in Figure 6), whereas quantile regressions centered on the 25th percentile of expenditures were used as a loose (high) estimate of poverty (black line in Figure 6). Analyses that used poverty as an explanatory variable were repeated with both measures of poverty to ensure that the estimated conclusions are robust to the specification of the poverty model. Figure 6. Bracketing poverty estimates with variance-weighted least squares and quantile regressions Non-communal .0006 .0008 .001 Communal 0 .0002 .0004 Predictions: Quantile regression Predictions: VWLS regression Actual per-capita expenditures 0 2000 4000 6000 0 Predicted annual per-capita expenditures, in Dinars 2000 4000 6000 Predicted annual per-capita expenditures, in Dinars Parameter estimates from the poverty models are shown in Tables 1: separately for rural and urban areas and for VWLS (Table 1a), and quantile regressions (Table 1b). The parameter estimates describe the estimated contribution of each covariate to households’ per-capita expenditures. Green shading indicates a positive contribution whereas red shading indicates a negative contribution. Darker shading indicates a greater contribution. An individual parameter estimate β could be interpreted as follows: (eβ-1)*100 is the estimated percentage difference in annual per-capita consumption for a one-unit difference in the explanatory variable. 16 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 1a. Parameter estimates from VWLS poverty models Communal β p Non-communal β p Assets Radio recorder Television Satellite dish Bookshelf Refrigerator Freezer Stove Washer Dishwasher Air-conditioner Computer Internet Phone_Mobile Car Motorcycle Bicycle Housing Villa/apartment/studio 2 rooms 3 rooms 4 rooms 5+ rooms Connected to Sonede Connected to natural gas Flush toilet Bathroom with hot water Kitchen with sink Electric heating # of children, ages 0-17 1 2 3 4 5+ # of young adults, ages 18-24 1 2 3+ # of adults, ages 25-59 1 2 3 4+ # of adults, ages 60+ 1 2+ # of adults ages 18-59 who are unable to work # of months worked, per person (average) Head of family has secondary education Region Nord Est Nord Ouest Centre Est Centre Ouest Sud Est Sud Ouest 0.070 0.061 0.051 0.075 0.146 0.114 0.041 0.123 0.180 0.125 0.101 0.089 0.152 0.166 0.077 0.043 0.055 0.058 0.130 0.207 0.234 0.089 0.095 0.069 0.093 0.084 0.046 -0.126 -0.294 -0.451 -0.613 -0.636 -0.045 -0.163 -0.247 -0.210 -0.356 -0.422 -0.557 -0.082 -0.173 -0.051 0.022 0.070 -0.103 -0.172 0.003 -0.174 -0.072 -0.185 0.069 0.065 0.030 0.107 0.139 0.033 0.087 0.098 0.200 0.094 0.075 0.062 0.185 0.224 0.152 0.128 0.024 0.087 0.162 0.258 0.310 0.071 0.032 0.067 0.068 0.105 0.108 -0.135 -0.282 -0.473 -0.561 -0.725 -0.027 -0.097 -0.196 -0.146 -0.262 -0.281 -0.425 -0.123 -0.222 -0.090 0.023 0.027 0.006 -0.089 0.004 -0.063 -0.125 -0.217 N R-square 4,753 0.6368 17 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.024 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 2,619 0.5460 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.004 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.041 <0.001 0.211 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 1b. Parameter estimates from quantile regression poverty models (25th percentile) Communal β p Non-communal β p Assets Radio recorder Television Satellite dish Bookshelf Refrigerator Freezer Stove Washer Dishwasher Air-conditioner Computer Internet Phone_Mobile Car Motorcycle Bicycle Housing Villa/apartment/studio 2 rooms 3 rooms 4 rooms 5+ rooms Connected to Sonede Connected to natural gas Flush toilet Bathroom with hot water Kitchen with sink Electric heating # of children, ages 0-17 1 2 3 4 5+ # of young adults, ages 18-24 1 2 3+ # of adults, ages 25-59 1 2 3 4+ # of adults, ages 60+ 1 2+ # of adults ages 18-59 who are unable to work # of months worked, per person (average) Head of family has secondary education Region Nord Est Nord Ouest Centre Est Centre Ouest Sud Est Sud Ouest 0.059 0.050 0.070 0.095 0.129 0.064 0.035 0.119 0.132 0.114 0.091 0.074 0.156 0.186 0.095 0.068 0.036 0.061 0.147 0.201 0.261 0.083 0.086 0.097 0.076 0.099 0.058 -0.143 -0.295 -0.438 -0.630 -0.640 -0.050 -0.170 -0.236 -0.229 -0.348 -0.441 -0.602 -0.101 -0.186 -0.074 0.027 0.064 -0.118 -0.213 -0.005 -0.201 -0.066 -0.215 0.072 0.056 0.042 0.094 0.141 0.092 0.105 0.068 0.156 0.002 0.139 -0.075 0.217 0.225 0.135 0.165 0.077 0.088 0.169 0.273 0.291 0.028 0.026 0.051 0.087 0.122 0.023 -0.124 -0.267 -0.460 -0.574 -0.764 -0.001 -0.080 -0.200 -0.081 -0.164 -0.230 -0.348 -0.080 -0.215 -0.132 0.018 0.020 -0.045 -0.157 -0.096 -0.135 -0.188 -0.234 N R-square 4,753 0.6341 18 <0.001 0.334 0.031 <0.001 0.005 0.033 0.054 <0.001 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.002 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.005 0.026 0.165 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.156 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.025 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.007 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.012 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.832 <0.001 0.012 <0.001 2,619 0.5391 0.008 0.284 0.175 0.048 <0.001 0.231 <0.001 0.030 0.150 0.969 0.029 0.536 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.003 0.031 0.038 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.290 0.748 0.166 0.100 <0.001 0.788 0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 <0.001 0.986 0.019 <0.001 0.301 0.035 0.005 <0.001 0.005 <0.001 0.002 0.003 0.542 0.475 0.013 0.137 0.032 0.007 0.001 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Parameter estimates from the poverty models can be applied to any data that contains information on the household characteristics included in the model; the result is an estimate of the household’s relative economic wellbeing, as expressed by the estimated annual per-capita expenditures. In combination with another poverty model using the 2005 Budget and Consumption Survey, the 2004 Census data, and data from the 2010 Employment survey, estimates from the poverty model can also be used to describe gouvernorate-level and delegation-level variation in annual per-capita expenditures. The distribution of this measure across the delegations in Tunisia was used a) to ensure an adequate representation of poor delegations in the household sample and b) to analyze the representativeness of sampling areas relative to the national distribution (details available upon request). A sample map describing the geographic distribution of the 25th percentile of estimated per-capita expenditures is shown in Figure 7. The different colors represent quintiles, i.e., delegations are split into 5 equally-sized groups according to their estimated economic wellbeing. The darkest shade represents the 20% of delegations with the lowest annual per-capita expenditures; the lightest shade represents the 20% of delegations with the highest annual percapita expenditures. Figure 7. Geographic variation in estimated per-capita annual expenditures, by quintile among delegations 19 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 6. Sampling and data collection Sampling of beneficiary households The objective of the sampling approach was to enroll a nationally representative sample of households who benefited from the monthly school allowance, and an appropriate comparison sample to allow for an assessment of the program’s targeting and impact. A stratified two-stage cluster-randomized sampling approach was used to select beneficiary households. In the first stage, two delegations were randomly selected from each of Tunisia’s 24 gouvernorates, for a total of 48 delegations. Each delegation’s estimated poverty level was used as a weight in the randomization,1 in order to maximize the evaluation’s chances of identifying program impact, if present. To compensate for an under-representation of delegations with high population density and delegations with high growth in program coverage, two additional delegations were randomly selected from all delegations scoring at least 2 standard deviations above the mean on either of these measures. In total, the evaluation included 19% of Tunisia’s 262 delegations. In the second stage, 20 PPAS beneficiary households were randomly selected from each delegation. In total, 1,000 beneficiary households were selected from all 11,848 PPAS beneficiary households residing in these 50 delegations and received benefits from the program in July of 2013. The 1,000 sampled beneficiary households represent 8.4% of all beneficiary households in the 50 delegations. In each delegation, 20 additional beneficiary households were randomly selected to compensate for surveyors’ inability to locate households, non-response, or refusals to participate in the evaluation. Selection of comparison households For two reasons, a random sample of non-PPAS households was not considered an appropriate comparison group. First, randomly selected households differ from beneficiary households with respect to many observable and unobservable characteristics other than the monthly benefit. Some of these differences (e.g., better parental Figure 8. EPI selection of neighbors education, higher income, distance to the nearest school) may be correlated with children’s schooling and could mask the program’s impact. Second, a random selection of households is unlikely to include a sufficiently large number of poor and very poor households to allow for an assessment of exclusion error, i.e. households who should receive benefits from the program but who do not. In this evaluation, we took advantage of the fact that households who are close to Source: WHO (2008). Training for mid-level managers. Module 7: The EPI coverage survey each other have many characteristics in common (e.g., distance to the nearest 1 The 25th percentile of estimated annual per-capita expenditures, minus extraordinary expenses, was used to describe each delegation’s poverty level. Poverty was used as a weight in the randomization by multiplying a random number for each delegation’ with the natural log its estimated poverty value. Delegations with fewer than 50 beneficiary households were excluded from the randomization. 20 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT school), and are more likely than other households to share other characteristics (e.g., a neighbor of a poor household is also more likely to be poor household.) For purposes of this evaluation, therefore, a beneficiary household’s nearest neighbor was considered to be an appropriate comparison household to analyze the program’s targeting and impact. Thus, after the enrollment of a beneficiary household, the WHO’s Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) methodology was used to sequentially approach each beneficiary household’s neighboring households until an eligible comparison household was identified. EPI methodology defines the next household to be the household whose front door is closest to the previously contacted household (Figure 8). Two additional factors had to be considered in the selection of the comparison group. First, PPAS benefits are intended for households with children who are enrolled in school. Therefore, only neighboring households with at least one child ages 5-17 were eligible for the comparison group. Second, the evaluation of the monthly benefit program was conducted in the context of the back-toschool (BTS) program, another, larger program which provided an annual financial benefit for children’s schooling to large numbers of households throughout the country. Stakeholders in the evaluation, when asked to prioritize the focus of the impact evaluation on either a) the impact of monthly vs. annual benefits or b) the impact of monthly vs. no benefits, requested that both objectives be met, if possible. Therefore, a comparison sample had to be selected that includes both a sufficient number of comparison households who received annual benefits and a sufficient number of comparison households who received no benefits. However, the number and distribution of households with annual vs. no benefits was not known a priori. Therefore, the selection approach was modified to ensure adequate enrollment of both types of households. The goal was to maximize the statistical power for the analyses by splitting the comparison sample as equally as possible between households who received no benefits and those who received annual benefits. Within each delegation, an ‘alternating selection’ approach was implemented, i.e., after enrolling a beneficiary household, surveyors alternated between the two types of comparison households. First, up to three neighboring households with age-eligible children were sequentially contacted in order to enroll a household who received no benefits. When two neighboring households did not meet this criterion, the third household was eligible regardless of whether they received any benefits. Once such a household was enrolled, the objective for the next comparison household was one who received the annual (BTS) benefit. Again, when two neighboring households did not meet this criterion, the third household was eligible regardless of whether they received the annual BTS benefit. The process was repeated until 20 beneficiary and 20 comparison households were enrolled in the delegation. Key informant interviews Ten key informant interviews were conducted in the fall of 2013 to document the opinions and attitudes of high-level decision makers regarding the cash transfer for education program. The individuals who participated played various roles in the administration and implementation of the cash transfer program. Participants mostly represented offices within the Tunisian government, including the Bureau for the Study of Planning and Programming, the Ministry of Social Affairs, the Ministry of Women and Children, the Ministry of Education, the General Directorate of Social Promotion, and one Regional Directorate of Social Promotion. Government-associated interviewees 21 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT represented two offices: an NGO involved in the program’s distribution logistics, and a social research agency with expertise in studying the country’s social assistance system. The research team compiled a purposive sample of available contacts from ministries and offices relevant to this evaluation. Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted in French and English with one designated respondent, but occasional input from other co-workers who were present was also collected. The interviews aimed to outline the respondent’s role in the administration of PPAS, as well as his/her opinions on the program’s objectives, administrative structure, targeting and eligibility, implementation, impact, and room for improvement. The second round of interviews additionally included respondents’ basic numeric rating of the program in terms of targeting, scale, implementation, impact, monitoring and evaluation, efficiency, and the appropriateness of transfer amounts. The Key Informant Survey instrument is included as Appendix 2. The ideas and suggestions provided at this stage were used to begin gauging the feasibility, appropriateness, and utility of potential changes to the cash transfer program. Interviews were each thoroughly reviewed multiple times. After initial readings, the first round of the analytical process consisted of adding investigator remarks (memos) on quotes, themes, patterns, and observations. Next, codes were developed and applied across all transcripts to label concepts of interest to the evaluation team and/or the interviewees. This allowed the team to search for and compile response excerpts with specific reference to social workers, benefit timing, or policy suggestions, to name a few. The analytic product of this was a narrative focusing mostly on the program's relevance, targeting, impact, and potential steps for improvement. Illustrative quotes, included in text boxes, have been added to relevant sections of this evaluation report. Surveys with local decision makers To assess the implementation of PPAS at the local level we conducted surveys with local decision makers in each of the delegations in which household surveys were conducted. One or more staff from the responsible delegation-level offices of the Direction Regionale de la Promotion Sociale (hereafter referred to as “social workers”) were asked questions that covered the following domains: o o o o o o o Staffing and resources, including the number of personnel, their education, computer literacy, and time allocation between in-office and out-of-office activities Staff ratings of office resources, familiarity with the education benefit program, and effectiveness in meeting the needs of the population Outreach activities and interactions with other organizations Perceived needs for the school benefit program and eligibility determination Challenges and barriers faced on the job Perceived effectiveness of the program Suggestions for improvement The full local office survey is included in Appendix 3. In total, 48 surveys were returned, one per delegation, with one or more local office staff jointly responding to these questions. Data were analyzed descriptively; results are presented alongside the results from the key informant interviews and the surveys with beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, in the implementation, targeting, and impact sections of this evaluation. 22 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Household surveys Household surveys with beneficiary and non-beneficiary households covered a wide variety of domains. These domains are summarized in Figure 9. Questionnaires captured the composition of and socio-economic status of households and the characteristics of household members, as well as elements of program implementation, targeting, and impact. Specific sections included: o o o o o o o o o o Economic status and living conditions Household composition Characteristics of all household members, including employment status and disability Characteristics of children Detailed education history of all children including school enrollment, grade progression, grade repetition, drop-out Current school attendance and performance Household expenses on children’s education and other household expenses Household support, including PNAFN, AMG-2, and financial and in-kind support for schooling Knowledge, attitudes and experiences with PNAFN and the education benefit program Parental attitudes towards child education The full household questionnaire is included in Appendix 4. In total, 1986 households participated in the assessment, including 994 beneficiary households and 992 neighboring households. Figure 9. Conceptual schema of the household questionnaire 23 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Focused review of other education-focused transfer programs To place the structure, targeting and impact estimates of PPAS in the context of experiences from other countries, we conducted a focused literature review of national-level education-focused cash transfer programs. The objective was to assess various characteristics of other cash transfer programs with educational components and draw comparisons to the program in Tunisia. The two main sets of search terms were: 1) (cash transfer) AND (education OR school) and 2) (cash transfer) AND nation* AND poverty. These terms were entered in the online databases at PAIS International, Columbia International Affairs Online, Web of Science, PubMed, SocIndex, PopLine, Sociological Abstracts, EconLit, Political Science Complete, Scopus, and Social Care Online, returning a total of 501 unique articles and reports. Further narrowing occurred based on predetermined exclusion criteria, omitting entries that: • • • • • • • • were published before 2009 were written in a language other than English focused on the United States, United Kingdom, or Australia described old-age, disability, pension, or in-kind aid programs described studies or programs conducted at the sub-regional level investigated biomedical topics or physical development as the only outcomes mentioned cash transfer as a recommendation only, or focused on different topics (i.e. farming, ATMs, and crime) Supplemental searches returned relevant documents via Google Scholar, the World Bank, Oxford Policy Management, and the Overseas Development Institute, among others. Of the resulting list of 261 total documents, 118 referred to specific cash transfer programs and contributed to the generation of Appendix 5.2-119 The remaining entries from the literature search that covered other topics of possible interest (i.e. conditional cash transfers in general, effects on household dynamics, macroeconomic contextual factors, etc.) were kept for further reference in this report and for further inquiries from stakeholders. It is worth noting that the literature search did not return any documents pertaining to Tunisia’s educationally targeted cash transfer program. This may be in part due to the language restriction, but it still underscores the need for further study and visibility of this particular program. An effort was made to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information on each of these cash transfer programs. Still, it should be noted that governments often modify transfer amounts and conditions based on the economy and feedback from ongoing evaluations. Appendix 5 represents the most recent available information at the time of this report’s publication. In cases where discrepancies arose between sources, the research team used their discretion to either include all findings or to select the most recent information available. When literature published between 2009 and the present did not exist or did not contain needed details about a program, information was gleaned from the World Bank’s online database of cash transfer programs 120. This country-level information draws mainly from Fiszbein and Schady’s 2009 World Bank research report, "Conditional Cash Transfers: Reducing Present and Future Poverty" 121. 24 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 7. Results - Part I: Relevance In this section we describe the relevance of a program to support the education of children in poor and needy families. We use data from the 2011/12 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to analyze school performance and rates of drop-out among children from poor and non-poor families, and among children in households facing other vulnerabilities. Relevance of a program to increase school enrollment and retention The United Nations’ second Millennium Development Goal is to achieve universal primary education. The specific target is to “ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling.” Progress toward this goal is assessed by three indicators: • • • 2.1 Net enrolment ratio in primary education 2.2 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach the last grade of primary education 2.3 Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men Tunisia has made dramatic progress with respect to school enrollment over the past few decades, with rates of people who did not attend school steadily declining (Figure 10). According to the World Bank and the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, Tunisia’s net enrolment ratio in primary education has met or exceeded 99% each year since 2008.2 Figure 10. Highest level of schooling completed in 2011/2012, by year of birth 100% Highest education completed None 80% Primaire Preparatoire Higher 60% 40% 20% 0% 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Year of birth However, youth literacy among 15 to 24 year olds was estimated at only 97% in 2010; 3 and 2008 estimates of primary school completion rates suggest that the country falls short on indicator #2.2., with only 95% of pupils who start grade 1 reaching the last grade of primary school.4 2 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.NENR http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.ADT.1524.LT.ZS 4 http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SE.PRM.PRSL.ZS 3 25 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT The latter numbers may be optimistic: Analyses of data from the 2011/12 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) suggest that a large proportion of Tunisian children do not complete a full course of primary school (Figure 11). Among children ages 19-24, only 83% had completed primary school grade 6; only 61% completed all 9 grades of primary school. Figure 11. Education gap: Highest grade levels completed by 19-24 year olds, 2011/2012 % des enfants 100% 97% 97% 95% 94% 91% 83% 74% 80% 67% 61% 60% 40% 20% 0% P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Niveau d’instruction accompli P7 P8 P9 Source: MICS, Tunisia 2011/2012 There is a marked increase in the rate of children who are not in school starting around age 13 (Figure 12). In 2011/12, fewer than 2% of children below age 13 were not enrolled in school. By contrast, for older children, the rate increased rapidly with every year of age, reaching 29% among 17 year olds, and 46% among 19 year olds. Figure 12. Percent of children who are not in school, by child age % des enfants en dehors de l’école 100% 80% 60% 43% 46% 40% 12% 20% 18% 24% 29% 0% 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Âge de l'enfant Source: MICS, Tunisia, 2011/12 Increasing dropout rates are reflected in lower rates of grade progression. Grade progression describes the extent to which a child moves from one grade level to the next grade level. In the ideal scenario each child progresses one grade level with each year of age after he or she enters school. Temporary or permanent drop-out reduces rates of grade progression by the number of years that a child is not enrolled in school. The deviation from this ideal scenario is shown in Figure 13. On average, by age 15, each child has “lost” nearly 0.8 grade levels relative to his/her age. On average, the 9th grade level is completed only at age 17, at which time a child is 1.7 years behind in schooling. 26 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Grade levels Figure 13. Grade progression slows with age Dropout is only one reason for the lack of grade progression. Another reason is high # of grade levels completed 12 rates of grade repetition among children. In # of grade levels "lost" fact, rates of grade repetition are much 10 higher than rates of drop-out. Figure 14 8 shows MICS data on rates of grade repetition and drop-out between the school years of 6 2009/10 and 2010/11. Similar to drop-out, rates of repeated grade levels increase over 4 2.5 time, and may be precursors to children 1.7 2 dropping out of school. As expected, the 0.8 1.3 number of children who stopped schooling 0 increased after the 6th grade of primary 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Child age school, i.e., completion of enseignement Source: MICS, Tunisia, 2011/12 primaire. However, many more children repeated that grade level than dropped out. Rates of grade repetition were largest in the 7th grade of primary school and remained high thereafter. Rates of grade repetition started increasing at age 13, followed by an increase of dropout at age 14. Across all students enrolled in primary school grades 1 through 8 in school year 2009/10, 10.4% repeated the grade level in school year 2010/11 and 1.7% dropped out of school. Figure 14. Drop-out and grade repetition between 2009/10 and 2010/11 by grade level and by age Source: MICS, 2011-12 Relevance of a program that targets poor and vulnerable households PPAS is targeted specifically at children in poor and needy families. Substantial prior evidence, including data from Tunisia, suggests that children in poor and vulnerable households are more likely to drop out of school. Thus, a program for poor and vulnerable households may in fact be appropriate in order to reach those who are at particularly high risk of drop-out. To test this assumption, we analyzed the extent to which educational outcomes in Tunisia vary with poverty. 27 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT The Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey assigns households to 5 wealth groups, allowing us to evaluate the association between households’ economic wellbeing and rates of drop-out. In Figure 15 we combined the two middle groups as well as the two richer groups of households. In 2011/12, children in the poorest households were most likely to drop out of school, and drop out earlier, while children from the wealthiest households were most likely to remain in school. % of children estimated to remain in school Figure 15. Children from poor households are less likely to be in school 100% 90% Le plus pauvre Moyen 80% Le plus riche 70% P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 Niveau d’instruction accompli Source: MICS, 2011-12 Similarly, children in poorer households exhibited higher rates of grade repetition (“redoublement”) throughout primary school, suggesting poorer school performance (Figure 16), which is an important precursor to drop-out. Importantly, elevated rates of repeated grade levels and drop-out in the “middle group”, relative to the two richest groups of households, suggest that the dropout problem in Tunisia is not limited to the poorest households Figure 16. Children from poor households are more likely to repeat grade levels % of children who repeated the grade level 30% 20% Le plus pauvre Moyen 10% Le plus riche 0% P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 Niveau d’instruction accompli Source: MICS, 2011-12 Several other factors are associated with poorer school performance and elevated rates of drop-out. Figure 17 shows that the education level of the head of household is strongly associated with the educational attainment of children and young adults. Among 19-25 year old participants in MICS, those whose head of household only had a primary school education or less were much more likely 28 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT to drop out of school before preparatory school and secondary school than children whose heads of household had secondary education or higher. Figure 17. Highest grade level among 19-24 year olds, by education of the head of household education des enfants (%) 100% 80% Secondary + 60% Preparatoire Primaire 40% None 20% 0% Néant Primaire Secondaire Supérieur Education du chef de ménage Source: MICS, 2011-12 Similar results were obtained using data from the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey, in which each household’s per-person expenditures were used to classify the household as either poor or not poor. At very young ages, children in poor households were less likely to be in school. Between the ages of 6 and 10, rates of school enrollment were comparable between both groups. Differences in the rates of dropout started emerging around age 11 and subsequently increased with age (Figure 18). Differences were also observed when comparing households with or without disabled adults; households with disabled heads of household are an important focus of the PNAFN program. Figure 18. Elevated rates of drop-out in poor households and those with disabled adults Source: 2010 Enquête sur le budget et consommation When comparing the drop-out rates of boys and girls, there appear to be no differences until around age 15, after which more boys than girls started to drop out of school (Figure 19). We also observed 29 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT large geographic differences in drop-out rates, with much higher rates of drop-out in rural vs. urban areas. Figure 19. Rates of drop-out by gender and in rural vs. urban areas Source: 2010 Enquête sur le budget et consommation Summary of relevance High rates of grade repetition and high rates of drop-out before the completion of a full course of primary schooling suggest a need for programs to improve educational performance and attainment of children in Tunisia. Analysis of variation in educational outcomes suggests that efforts should be targeted at poorer families, those with other vulnerabilities such as disabled household members, those with lower education among the heads of households, and families residing in rural areas. Additional characteristics of households and children most likely to benefit from such program are described in other sections of this report. Great variation in educational outcomes between rural and urban areas and by age and grade level, gender differences in drop-out rates at older ages, and sub-optimal educational outcomes even among children from middle-income families suggest that multiple different approaches may be needed to broadly improve grade progression and reduce rates of school drop-out. The widespread prevalence and diverse causes of drop-out suggest that a program limited to PNAFN beneficiary households, despite that program’s large beneficiary base and inclusion of many needy families, may not be sufficient to create measurable, country-wide improvements in Tunisia’s performance on key MDG indicators. For such improvements, the scale of PPAS must be expanded. Finally, as described in other sections of the report, a substantial portion of program funds currently appears to support children beyond compulsory primary school education. The scope of PPAS, specifically its relative emphasis on complimentary, yet different, objectives such as poverty reduction, reducing drop-out among children from poor families, maximizing education attainment of individual children, and/or measurable improvements in MDG indicators that focus on primary school education, will have to be clarified. 30 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 8. Results - Part II: Implementation This description of program implementation compiles information obtained from key informants, program documents, discussions with program stakeholders and stakeholders in the evaluation, interviews with local decision makers, and household beneficiary surveys. These data represent the evaluators’ current understanding of the program’s administration and implementation. Program administration and implementation As a benefit program developed specifically for PNAFN households, PPAS is implemented on the basis of the administrative infrastructure, including offices, information system, payment mechanisms, and staff, of the PNAFN program. Only families enrolled in PNAFN are eligible for PPAS benefits. Households that are new to PNAFN must present a series of documents and follow several steps in order to start receiving benefits. The documents include an enrollment request form, two pictures for identification, a photocopy of their government-issued identification card, and a certificate of non-affiliation with the national social security fund (CNSS). Once these forms are presented to their delegation’s local social welfare office, a social worker conducts a home visit and checks that nobody in the household is enrolled in either CNSS or CNRPS (for retirees). The application is then reviewed before a local commission comprising a member of the local social welfare office, a representative of CNSS, and a social worker. The regional commission—composed of the head of the local office, a gouvernorate-level official, and one delegate each from CNSS and CNRPS—then reviews the application. Once approved, applicants may pick up their free health care card (AMG-1), at which point their data are saved electronically at the regional office and in paper form at the local office. PNAFN payments begin approximately one month thereafter. PNAFN beneficiaries must visit the social welfare office every year for a stamp on their free health care card. The card and their PNAFN status can be revoked at this point if the social worker deems that the household is no longer eligible. The social worker can then begin the process of adding a member of the waiting list to the PNAFN list. If a family enrolled in PNAFN wants to benefit from the PPAS program they need to bring the parents’ government-issued ID, their AMG-1 card, and the child’s school enrollment form. Enrollment certificates (for the current school year) or completion certificates (for the prior school year) may alternatively be used to document a child’s school enrollment. After eligibility is determined, monthly payments of 10 Dinars per child are made for up to three children per household and sent to the PNAFN beneficiary, on behalf of the target child(ren). There were reports of benefits being extended to other children in the household, regardless of school enrollment, e.g., in the case of disability of other children. Importantly, the program’s information system contains information on benefit amounts paid to each household (identified by the government ID number of the PNAFN beneficiary); however, no information was available indicating for which children these benefits were paid. Key informants emphasized the potential for a new, shared database and unique identification system, which they believe could address many of the issues currently faced by the program. 31 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Program eligibility and (non) conditionality of benefits There was no indication of clear guidelines or decision rules regarding eligibility restrictions or benefit termination once a child drops out of school or graduates. Alternative age cut-offs were mentioned as eligibility criteria for benefit receipt, ranging from mandatory primary school age to age 24. The lack of clearly specified program eligibility criteria and the lack of clear decision rules for the continuation or discontinuation of benefits represented particular challenges for the evaluation of PPAS. The evaluation sought to account for ambiguity in eligibility criteria and/or enforcement by presenting alternative scenarios for the estimation of inclusion and exclusion errors. “If you don’t have crystal clear eligibility criteria and people are asking for assistance, you don’t have reasonable grounds to deny them that assistance.” We clarify that in this report the term eligibility refers to characteristics of an individual household and/or child associated with participation in the PPAS program. The primary PPAS eligibility criterion is the presence of a child of school-eligible age in a PNAFN household. To account for variation in stated age eligibility across participants, a variety of different age ranges were analyzed. Because the program’s stated focus was on reducing school dropout, and the (often not enforced) requirement that parents demonstrate a child’s school enrollment in order to start receiving benefits, children ever having attended “It is a problem with school was considered an additional eligibility criterion. In our the eligibility recommendations we suggest that eligibility criteria be enforced criteria, rather than (by verifying the presence of school-eligible and/or in-school errors of inclusion.” children in the household) as well as expanded (by dropping the program’s exclusive focus on PNAFN households). Conditionality of program benefits refers to a specific behavior or action that leads to continued receipt of the program benefits. At present the program is implemented as an unconditional cash transfer program. In this report we recommend that children’s continued school enrollment, and potentially school attendance, should be considered as conditions for continued benefit receipt. Oversight and information flow Discussions with top-level key informants included many comments on the transfer program’s administrative structure. The coordination of work between ministries and offices was commonly seen as a key area for potential improvement. This would address current inefficiencies in communication, information sharing, and monitoring and evaluation practices. Multiple complaints indicated that communication regarding program changes and issues was inadequate. Key informants explained that “This program is not communication typically took the form of memos structured in an effective way originating in the national office, and that these memos as regards the circulation of essentially represented the entire regulatory system. It information either upward or was also noted that government officials conducted downward.” internal monitoring and evaluation activities only in reaction to issues or discrepancies as they arose. 32 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT According to several respondents, a more systematic and scheduled method of program oversight would help to prevent issues from arising in the first place, while also providing more real-time updates on the program’s performance and impact. The same points arose from analyses of surveys with local social welfare offices. Offices reported limited interactions with other stakeholders (Figure 20). Importantly, while nearly all respondents reported annual or more frequent interactions with school administrators, only half of the offices reported ever interacting with teachers, and fewer than half reported interacting with school outreach workers or NGOs. Figure 20. Limited interactions with other stakeholders in children’s education Frequency of interactions with ... Teachers School outreach workers School administrators Regional decision makers National decision makers NGOs Other social workers Monthly Quarterly Annually Never There appears to be limited interaction of local offices with regional decision makers, with only half of respondents reporting annual or more frequent interactions. Further, while nearly 90% of local offices reported a visit from the central or regional office during 2013, the reasons for these visits varied “There should be a better greatly across offices (Figure 21), suggesting lack of a exchange of information that is standardized protocol or inconsistent implementation regular and systematic—not of local capacity building and maintenance, quality reactionary.” control, and program standardization and oversight. 33 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 21. In 2013, was your office visited by officials from the central/regional office for any of the following reasons? (% of offices responding affirmatively, multiple responses possible) Training 22% Compliance/quality control 40% Program updates 32% Data management and reporting 16% Personnel issues 16% Regular check-in 8% Other 18% No visit during 2013 14% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% There was evidence of large geographic variation of the role of the regional administration in eligibility determination. Local social welfare offices were asked what percentage of eligibility decisions were overturned at the regional level. The rates of overturned decisions at the delegation level ranged from 0 to 80 percent; when averaged within regions the rates of overturned decisions ranged from 9 to 25 percent (Figure 22). Figure 22. In 2013, approximately what share of this office’s PNAFN eligibility decisions were overturned at the regional level? (%, average across sampled delegations within each region) 34 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Capacity of local social welfare offices The number of staff at the local offices ranged from 2 to 15 with a median of 5 staff. When asked what role an additional staff member, if available, should fill, the most common roles included home visits for participants’ eligibility determination and re-certification (each 38% of offices), and identification of potential new beneficiaries (32%). In total, two thirds indicated that an additional staff member should fill an out-ofoffice role. “There are not enough social workers to meet demand.” Overall, local office staff rated their offices highly on most aspects of their work, except for staff motivation and qualifications (Figure 23). Figure 23. Self-ratings of local social welfare offices on their knowledge and capacity Familiarity with PNAFN regulations Familiarity with PPAS regulations Linking eligible children to PPAS Verifying continued eligibility Connecting with other agencies Office management and reporting Staff motivation Staff training & qualifications Low or very low Medium High or very high Lack of resources, in particular transportation, a high work load, and lobbying by applicants were cited most frequently as challenges faced by social welfare workers (Figure 24). 35 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 24. Barriers and challenges reported by local social welfare workers Which challenges do you face as a part of your job? Lack of resources 85% Transportation 83% Lobbying by applicants 79% Workload too high 63% Lack of coordination 31% Lack of guidance 23% Bureaucracy/inefficiency 21% Data management 19% Other 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Comparisons with other education-focused transfer programs Appendix 5 summarizes key characteristics of the PPAS program and compares PPAS to 32 other cash transfer programs that should be relevant to decision-makers in Tunisia and the MENA region who are in the process of developing and refining education-focused cash transfer programs. Most of these programs operate on the national level, while some were included to represent regional, pilot, or experimental study programs. Reviewing this table provides useful insight into the range of transfer amounts, coverage, distribution strategies, targeting protocols, conditions, performance, and guidelines across programs. The selected programs show a striking amount of variation in key elements. National-level programs vary in the size of their beneficiary pool, from around 5,000 households in Tanzania to approximately 11 million children in Brazil and South Africa. The primary objectives of these programs varyingly address poverty alleviation and human capital development, in addition to educational quality, performance, and access. Payments of cash transfers are distributed monthly, every two months, quarterly, every four months, twice a year, or annually, depending on the program. The programs also employ different strategies for delivering transfers. Some deliver the transfer on a per-child basis, while others deliver by household. There are programs that set different transfer amounts for boys and girls. Other programs deliver larger amounts as a child progresses from primary to secondary and post-secondary school. While it is difficult to assess the impact these structural characteristics have on program success, it remains important for decision makers in Tunisia to be aware of the existing options. The table also provides a rough estimate of the percentage of per capita household consumption expenses that are covered in one month’s equivalent of each transfer. A quick analysis of this information indicates that cash transfers to individual children in these programs amount to a median of 3.1% of monthly per capita consumption expenses, while transfers to households represent a median of 6.1% of monthly per capita consumption expenses. While this does not specifically represent educational expenses, it does indicate that Tunisia’s monthly transfer amount is comparatively low (1.2% of monthly per capita consumption expenses). The gross amount of 36 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT cash transfers vary widely, ranging from $1.45 per household per month in Bangladesh to $70.67 per child per month in Singapore. The median monthly amount of transfers distributed to households was $15, while payments made on a per-child basis had a monthly median amount of $10.50. Of the 33 programs analyzed, 29 contain a conditional cash transfer (CCT) component, while the other four are unconditional cash transfers (UCT). Of the CCT programs, 23 require both school enrollment and attendance, and 18 of those define attendance as an explicit percentage of school days present (checked monthly or bimonthly). Ten of these set the attendance threshold at 85%, six at 80%, and two at 90%. These standard practices provide useful guidelines for any country attempting to integrate attendance conditionality into a cash transfer program. Additional conditions cover a wide range of topics, from educational performance (grades, end-of-year exam results) to community participation (parenting and capacity building workshops), the child’s health (vaccinations, clinic visits), and family health behavior (growth monitoring, prenatal check-ups). Looking at the list of countries sampled in Appendix 5, it is important to note which programs could be the most relevant to Tunisia and its fellow MENA members. The most obvious among these are Yemen and Morocco, based on their geography and cultural backgrounds. The program in Yemen (the Basic Education Development Project) focuses on girls only, and is currently in the second round of a World Bank pilot. It uses geographic targeting and focuses strongly on school performance— maintaining passing grades, completing each grade level, and passing end-of-year exams—in determining eligibility and transfer amounts. It appears to have increased the enrollment levels of girls, but hasn’t shown evidence of closing the large gender gap in Yemen 122. The Tayssir pilot program in Morocco, which ran from 2008-10, provides insight into an alternative option to conditionality. An impact evaluation first compared labeled cash transfers (LCT) with conditional cash transfers (CCT) within this program. To qualify as an LCT, a program places no conditions on beneficiaries, but instead provides an explicit suggestion, or “label,” to encourage them to use the money for a specific purpose. In the case of Tayssir, the label was used to “nudge” households to spend the cash transfer on educational expenses. Specifically, this encouragement was based on the principle that schools would serve as the primary location of program enrollment. The evaluation found that the LCT component of the pilot was generally more cost effective and, in some cases, even encouraged higher rates of educational participation than its CCT counterpart. In addition, the LCT reduced the dropout rate by around 70% among students enrolled at baseline, increased re-entry by 85% among those who had dropped out before baseline, and cut the share of never-schooled by 43% 5. The value of cognitively linking a cash transfer to its objective (in this case, education) among its recipients has been demonstrated in the Tayssir program, which could serve as an example to its neighbors in the MENA region. It is important to note that the Tayssir program employed geographic targeting; its specific focus on highly disadvantaged rural areas and the schoolwide implementations of the program were likely instrumental to its success, and differentiate Tayssir substantively from PPAS’ nation-wide focus on specific disadvantaged households. A handful of other countries in Appendix 5 are economically similar to Tunisia, and would also warrant attention in the search for relevant exemplary cash transfer programs. Ecuador, Jamaica, Colombia, and Peru are all ranked similarly to Tunisia in terms of GDP per capita; Nicaragua, the Philippines, and Ghana are close to Tunisia in terms of the GINI coefficient of inequality 6,7. Additionally, there are a handful of cash transfer programs with notable programmatic similarities to 37 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Tunisia’s PPAS program. The labeled cash transfer of Morocco’s Tayssir program is probably the closest to Tunisia’s in terms of implementation. Mozambique’s Basic Social Subsidy combines selftargeting with means testing to deliver an unconditional transfer to labor-constrained households. Chile’s government internally funds a small unconditional transfer called Solidario, which is delivered based on each household’s Social Protection Card score. The LEAP program in Ghana is similar in size to Tunisia’s cash transfer program, and uses school enrollment as its only condition. Finally, Singapore’s School Pocket Money Fund shares a focus on educational resource-focused objectives while delivering transfers to children conditional on their school enrollment and living situation. Summary of program implementation The implementation of PPAS on the basis of the administrative infrastructure of the PNAFN program suggests that the marginal administrative cost of the education benefit program is likely small compared to the cost of an independently implemented program. At the same time, PPAS inherits key characteristics of the PNAFN program, including its focus on specific beneficiary populations, limits to the program’s scope of coverage, and characteristics of program implementation and administration. These characteristics have significant implications for the program’s coverage rate, limit the program’s focus on children in non-PNAFN households who may also be at risk of drop-out, and may contribute to the program’s dual focus on children’s school vs. poverty reductions, as indicated by vague or non-existing eligibility criteria and the lack of conditionality of PPAS benefits. These points are explored in detail in the targeting and impact sections, below. The evaluation noted the efficient use of existing resources for the eligibility determination, benefits distribution and program administration. The evaluation also identified substantial regional variation in program implementation, limits to the resources and capacity of local offices to identify additional eligible households and link them to benefits, limited communication with teachers, NGOs and other stakeholders in children’s education, and variable and/or limited information flow and oversight by regional offices. Recommendations, described in detail in Section 11, include a re-evaluation of the program’s limitation to PNAFN beneficiary households, greater standardization of information flow and oversight, an improved information management system that allows for the tracking of eligibility and benefits for individual children, and improved communication, coordination and integration of PPAS with school-based and other (e.g., NGO-based) education support programs and efforts to reduce drop-out. Additional efforts should ensure that the scale and scope of the program is supported by adequate capacity at local social welfare offices, including for outreach, eligibility determination and verification, eligibility re-certification, and information management. 38 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 9. Results - Part III: Targeting In this section we characterize the beneficiary population of PPAS, and the extent to which the program reaches the population it intends to reach. We provide the results of surveys with key informants, local decision makers, beneficiary households, and non-beneficiary households, and give estimates of inclusion and exclusion errors, i.e., the extent to which the intended target populations, and only the intended target populations, participate in the program. The concepts of inclusion and exclusion error Conceptually, targeting of a program describes the extent of overlap between a program’s beneficiary population and the intended or eligible target population (Figure 25). The appropriateness of targeting is described by two concepts: inclusion error and exclusion error. The concept of inclusion error describes households who are currently benefiting from the program but who do not meet eligibility criteria and should not be receiving benefits. The concept of exclusion error describes the characteristics of households who should benefit from the program but do not. Figure 25. The concept of targeting Calculations of inclusion and exclusion errors depend on the availability of explicit eligibility criteria. Considering the program’s reliance on PNAFN eligibility determination, the use of both subjective and objective criteria to determine a household’s eligibility for PNAFN, and the dual focus of PPAS on poverty and schooling, this evaluation takes a more pragmatic approach and assesses a) economic and demographic characteristics of PPAS beneficiary households b) what share of potentially eligible households receives benefits from the program; and c) whether beneficiary households are more appropriate recipients of financial support than non-beneficiary households. 39 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Program coverage In July 2013, PPAS covered 40,592 households. Within these households, benefits were paid for 77,705 children. Beneficiary households represent 18.6% of all PNAFN households, and may represent as many as 50% of the estimated 80,000 PNAFN households with children. The 2004 Census counted just over 1 million households with approximately 2.2 million children ages 6 to 17. A simple comparison between the number of beneficiary households and children and the total number of households and children in Tunisia would suggest an estimated coverage rate of 3.8% of households and 3.5% of children. There was great geographic variation in rates of PNAFN households benefiting from PPAS (Figure 26), ranging from 7% to 41% across delegations, and from 11% to 29% across gouvernorates. Similar variation was found in the estimated share of children who were covered by the program, ranging from 3% to 23% of all children ages 6 to 17 residing in the delegation. Figure 26. Geographic variation in PPAS coverage among PNAFN beneficiaries and children Coverage by PNAFN and PPAS increased dramatically over the past few years. Between 2010 and 2013, the number of PNAFN families increased by 65%; the number of families benefiting from PPAS increased by 45%, and the number of children covered by the program increased by 46%. There was also substantial geographic variation in program growth rates (not shown). 40 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Assessment of program targeting by key informants Program targeting and eligibility criteria were important components of the interviews with key informants. While most of the key informants had a grasp of the program’s general requirements and connection to PNAFN, substantial variety in responses suggests a need to universally define the target population “People know the and which criteria they must meet to receive PPAS. Overall, respondents indicated that no clear or agreed-upon set of criteria very well, and eligibility criteria existed at the time of the interviews. It they profit from the fact appears that both the interpretation of and adherence to that they are vague.” any existing eligibility criteria were seen to vary across offices. For instance, there was some concern that social workers and local staff often allowed familiarity with clients to influence decisions about eligibility. On the one hand, closeness with clients provided a more thorough picture of households’ needs profiles. At the same time, however, conflicts of interest (especially when working in small towns and/or the hometown of the staff member) could interfere with the fairness and efficiency of the program’s targeting. Importantly, respondents expressed a need for the eligibility criteria to target not only households living in poverty, but also those just above the poverty threshold and those otherwise struggling to provide for their children. On the other “Better targeting is needed hand, errors of inclusion (those receiving benefits who should not be) hurt the efficiency of the program, but to save money, to supply could be objectively addressed via a thorough eligibility better protection, and to review. This could potentially save the program money improve efficiency.” by redirecting program funds to legitimate existing beneficiaries or those currently left out as errors of exclusion. While the program currently provides monthly transfers on a mostly unconditional basis (no requirement of a specific action/behavior for continued receipt of benefits after initial enrollment), key informants believed that PPAS was at a critical point in terms of decision-making. Conditional cash transfer programs have received heightened attention recently in both research literature and the media. Some of the key informants believed that conditionality could play a role in maximizing the impact of Tunisia’s cash transfer for education strategy. Although proof of a child’s enrollment is required to initially sign up as a beneficiary household, this documentation is currently only required once; a birth certificate suffices for renewal. Some interviewees mentioned that a shift toward conditionality via continued monitoring of enrollment (yearly, via school certificates) or “Based on what it is right now, attendance (daily, via classroom records) could it should be called “aid for focus the program’s impact more closely on improved educational outcomes. According to one families taking care of kids,” key informant, such changes would likely require instead of “aid for families better record keeping, in addition to the full with kids in school.” cooperation of teachers and the Ministry of Education (Key Informant #5). Other potential 41 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT conditions discussed were academic performance and behavior in school. Both ideas were said to warrant particular caution though, since they could place undue psychological burden on struggling students while potentially requiring significant amounts of time and effort to implement. Along these lines, conditionality as a whole only received mixed support among respondents. Some pointed out that adding conditions could effectively act to exclude the worst-off portion of the target population, while others insisted that adding multiple conditions would lead to redundancies in the targeting process. Local decision makers’ perception of program targeting Social workers from local social welfare offices were asked a variety of questions about the program’s targeting criteria. Respondents were nearly evenly split when asked whether current criteria were acceptable, too flexible, or too strict (Figure 27). Figure 27. Social workers' perceptions of the appropriateness of current PNAFN eligibility criteria 30.86% Criteria are acceptable Criteria are too flexible Criteria are too strict 44.44% 24.69% Several questions in the local office survey asked for opinions on which eligibility criteria should be included or excluded for PNAFN and PPAS (See Table 2). The responses provide a picture of how social workers think eligibility should be defined for these programs. It is also noteworthy that several answers (starred) indicate that the local level implementation of PPAS may not match the program's eligibility criteria as they exist on paper. 42 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 2. Social workers’ suggestions for changes to program targeting criteria Consider… Don’t consider… PNAFN • Income • Emotions • Degree of disability • Favoritism • Support (family or institutions) • Housing situation • Family size • Family support • Ability to work • Social security status • Orphans • Objective criteria PPAS • Household assets • Emotions • Income • Favoritism • Timing of employment • Social security status • School attendance • Number of children • Social security status • School performance* • Distance from school • Dropout* • Enrollment* Social workers reported moderate amounts of inclusion error. Figure 28 shows social workers’ estimates of the share of PNAFN beneficiaries they would expect to not be eligible if they were to apply newly today. While half of the delegations reported no inclusion error for PNAFN, in 3 delegations the estimated inclusion error was expected to be 50% or higher. These numbers are consistent with the long ‘tail’ in the distributions in estimated per-capita expenditures among beneficiary households (see Figure 36, below). Figure 28. Social workers' estimate of inclusion error for PNAFN What % of those households in your district currently receiving PNAFN benefits would not be eligible if they were to apply newly today? 55% 60% 50% 40% 30% 21% 20% 10% 11% 6% 6% 0% No-one 1 to 9 percent 10 to 24 percent 25 to 49 percent 50 percent or more There appeared to be some systematic geographic variation in social workers’ estimates of inclusion error, with higher rates in the South, East and Grand Tunis, and lower rates in the West (Figure 29). 43 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 29. Social workers' estimates of inclusion error for PNAFN (%, averaged within each region) Social workers indicated high rates of applicants who lied about their eligibility, either during the initial eligibility determination or for re-certification (Figure 30). More than one third of respondents indicated that half or more applicants lied. Importantly, these numbers do not necessarily characterize errors of inclusion, as they likely include large numbers of households whose applications were ultimately rejected at the local or regional level. However, they indicate the limited value of self-reports for evaluating eligibility for social assistance programs. Figure 30. Social worker reported accuracy of household eligibility reporting 30% 25% 20% When applying for benefits or re-certification, in your opinion what is the percentage of households that have lied about their eligibility? 28% 23% 16% 16% Less than 10 percent 10 to 24 percent 16% 15% 10% 5% 0% 25 to 49 percent 44 50 to 74 percent 75 percent or more Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Social workers listed a variety of reasons that result in errors of exclusion (Figure 31). More than half of respondents indicated that low benefit amounts and lack of information among potential beneficiary households constitute barriers to enrolling eligible families into PPAS. Administrative hurdles were mentioned by one quarter of respondents; one in ten mentioned stigma associated with participation in the program. Figure 31. Social worker reported sources of exclusion error Do any of the following constitute barriers to enrolling eligible families into the PPAS program? Insufficient benefit amount 73% Lack of information among eligible families 56% Geographic dispersion 54% Narrow application window 33% Difficult application process 25% Conditionality on school enrollment 17% Stigma associated with program participation 10% Other 6% 0% 10% 45 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Characteristics of children in beneficiary households Figure 32 shows the age distribution of children and young adults ages 6 to 24 among sampled PPAS beneficiary households. Importantly, children ages 20 to 24 accounted for approximately 38% of all children in beneficiary households; only half of all children were between the ages of 6 to 17. Figure 32. Age distribution of children and young adults ages 6-24 among beneficiary households 24 7% Age 6 7 2% 2% 23 7% 8 3% Age 6 7 9 3% 10 3% 8 9 11 4% 22 7% 10 11 12 5% 12 13 14 21 8% 13 6% 15 16 17 14 5% 18 19 20 10% 15 5% 19 4% 18 7% 16 6% 17 7% 20 21 22 23 24 Despite the program’s focus on school-age children, eligibility criteria did not explicitly specify an age limit for households or children to receive monthly program benefits. Therefore we describe in Figure 33 the percentage of households that would meet specific upper age cut-offs for program eligibility. The figure indicates that eleven percent of PPAS beneficiary households did not have any children ages 6 to 24 in the household; these households represent clear inclusion error. For other households the definition of inclusion error depends on the age limit imposed, if any. Only 72% of beneficiary households had any children ages 6 to 19. By contrast, 80% of households who received monthly program benefits had at least one child between the ages of 13 to 24 (not shown). The share of households who would meet other age cut-offs for program eligibility can be identified using this figure. 46 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT % of households meeting an upper age cut-off Figure 33. Percentage of beneficiary households who would meet age-based program eligibility criteria with an upper age limit 100% 84% 78% 80% 69% 87% 89% 81% 72% 63% 56% 60% 50% 44% 39% 40% 33% 28% 22% 18% 20% % of households without any children ages 6-24 (11%) 14% 8% % of households who would meet an upper age cut-off 3% 0% 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Potential upper upper or lower age cut-offs for program eligibility Figure 34 shows the estimated effect of alternative upper and lower age cut-offs for estimates of inclusion error in the program. The X axis describes a range of scenarios for the lower age cut-off for program eligibility; the Y axis describes a range of scenarios for the upper age cut-off. The color at the intersection of the two scenarios describes the current estimated inclusion error if the eligibility criteria were imposed today. For example, the dark blue areas in Figure 34, Panel A, show that inclusion error is below 20% if eligibility is based on the presence of any children between ages 5-21, or an even wider age range, in the household. When tighter age-related eligibility criteria are imposed, either by lowering the upper age threshold or raising the lower age threshold, estimates of inclusion error increases rapidly. If at least one child ages 6-19 must be present in the household in order to be eligible for monthly program payments, inclusion error is estimated at 28%; the error increases to 37% if children ages 6-17 must be present in the household. Given the program’s focus on reducing drop-out, we also analyzed how these estimates of inclusion error change if program benefit receipt were dependent on school enrollment. Figure 34, Panel B, shows rates of inclusion error among PPAS beneficiary households if eligibility for monthly benefit receipt in July 2013 were based on children’s ages and on children’s school enrollment in either of the last two school years. A loose, two-year criterion was used because qualitative process assessments with local decision makers indicated that either school enrollment certificates (for the current school year) or completion certificates (for the prior school year) may be used to document a child’s school enrollment for initial or continued receipt of PPAS benefits. Comparisons between Panels A and B indicate that due to a large number of children who are not enrolled in school, the estimated rates of inclusion error would be even higher if program eligibility or benefit conditionality included school enrollment and exceed 20% regardless of age-based eligibility criteria. 47 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 34. Estimates of inclusion error based on alternative age-based eligibility restrictions, without (Panel A) and with (Panel B) additional eligibility restrictions based on school enrollment 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Panel A. Inclusion error based on age eligibility only Upper age limit for program eligibility 0%-20% 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Lower age limit for program eligibility 20%-40% 40%-60% 60%-80% 80%-100% 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 Panel B. Inclusion error based on age eligibility and school enrollment in the past 2 years 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Lower age limit for program eligibility 48 Upper age limit for program eligibility 0%-20% Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT PPAS rules stipulate that monthly payments are made for up to three children per household. To assess over- and/or under-coverage by the program, our analysis of beneficiary households compares the number of children in the household, the number of children enrolled in school, and the number of children for whom benefits were paid. Unfortunately, lack of clarity with respect to age restrictions and other eligibility criteria made it difficult to determine the optimal reference group, and different eligibility criteria lead to dramatically different conclusion regarding inclusion and exclusion error (Table 3). We therefore considered 4 different scenarios: Panel A describes inclusion and exclusion error if the program is intended to benefit all children of school-eligible age (broadly defined as ages 6-24); Panel B describes inclusion and exclusion error if the program eligibility includes only children ages 6-24 who have ever attended school; Panel C describes inclusion and exclusion error if program benefits are only intended for children ages 6-24 who were recently enrolled in school. Finally, Panel D further limits eligibility only to children of primary school age, ages 6-17, who were recently enrolled in school. If PPAS payments to PNAFN households are intended to benefit children of school-eligible age (Panel A), broadly defined to include ages 6-24, without consideration of actual enrollment in school, the coverage levels indicate an inclusion error of 12.8% of funds in 2013. This number includes 10.5% of beneficiary households who had no age-eligible children and families who received payments for more than the number of age-eligible children in the household. At the same time, the program limit of 3 children indicates that many children cannot benefit from PPAS, because 18% of beneficiary households had 4 or more children between the ages of 6-24. In addition, some households with 2 or 3 children received benefits for fewer than the number of age-eligible children residing in the household. This exclusion error amounts to 23.6% of the total program funding level in 2013. Combining both inclusion error (households with no age-eligible children or too few age-eligible children) and exclusion error (households with more age-eligible children than benefit recipients) indicates that an additional 18.1% of funds would be needed to cover all age-eligible children residing in current beneficiary households. If tighter eligibility criteria are applied (e.g., if program benefits are only payable for children ages 624 who ever attended school), the estimated inclusion error increases while the estimated exclusion error decreases (Panel B). In 2013, an estimated 19% of beneficiary households reported no children ages 6-24 who ever attended school. At the same time, 7.1% of beneficiary households had 4 or more children who ever enrolled in school. Comparisons of the number of children (ages 6-24, ever went to school) residing in the household with the number of children receiving benefits results in estimates of an inclusion error of 27.8% and an exclusion error (eligible children for whom no benefits were received) of 10.7%. If funds could be perfectly targeted to include only children ages 624 who ever enrolled in school, 15.9% of program funds could be re-allocated to expand program coverage or increase benefit amounts. Panel C describes inclusion and exclusion error for the case where program eligibility is based on child age and recent school enrollment. More than 23% of beneficiary households had no children ages 6-24 who were in school during the current or previous school year. Additional households received benefits for more than the number of children (ages 6-24, enrolled in school in the past 2 years) residing in the household. This amounts to an inclusion error equivalent to 32.6% of program 49 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT funds. Six percent of households had more than 3 children enrolled in school in either of the past two years; in total the number of households who had more eligible children than benefit recipients amounted to an estimated exclusion error of 9.6%. In this scenario, eliminating both inclusion and exclusion error would allow for 22% of program funds to be re-allocated toward expansion of benefits or coverage. Finally, in Panel D we describe the scenario where benefit eligibility is limited to children ages 6 to 17 who are or were recently enrolled in school. In this scenario, the estimated inclusion error exceeds 53%, with only 4.5% exclusion error. More than 40% of beneficiary households had no children who met these eligibility criteria. In this scenario, elimination of inclusion and exclusion error would allow for nearly half of all program funds to be used for an expansion of coverage to additional children or an increase in benefit amounts among eligible beneficiaries. Table 3. Relationship between the number of children residing in the household and benefit receipt among beneficiary households Nombre d'enfants pour lesquels le paiement a été fait durant 2013/14 Estimates of inclusion and exclusion error 1 2 3 Total Aucun 1 2 3 4 ou plus Total 7.8% 16.0% 8.8% 4.3% 1.0% 37.9% 1.7% 3.2% 15.6% 6.8% 5.1% 32.4% 1.0% 1.6% 3.9% 11.2% 12.1% 29.7% 10.5% 20.8% 28.2% 22.2% 18.3% 100.0% Inclusion error 12.8% Exclusion error 23.6% Net effect on budget -18.1% Panel B. Nombre d'enfants âgés de 6-24 qui ont fréquenté l'école Aucun 1 2 3 4 ou plus Total 12.9% 19.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.1% 37.9% 3.3% 7.3% 16.3% 4.5% 0.9% 32.4% 2.7% 5.1% 7.2% 8.7% 6.1% 29.7% 19.0% 31.5% 27.9% 14.5% 7.1% 100.0% Inclusion error Exclusion error Net effect on budget 27.8% 10.7% 15.9% Panel C. Nombre d'enfants âgés de 6-24 inscrits à l'école dans l'une des deux dernières années Aucun 1 2 3 4 ou plus Total 14.8% 18.1% 3.9% 1.0% 0.1% 37.9% 5.0% 7.8% 14.7% 4.0% 0.8% 32.4% 3.5% 5.3% 7.3% 8.5% 5.1% 29.7% 23.4% 31.2% 25.9% 13.5% 6.1% 100.0% Inclusion error Exclusion error Net effect on budget 32.6% 9.6% 22.0% Panel D. Nombre d'enfants âgés de 6-17 inscrits à l'école dans l'une des deux dernières années Aucun 1 2 3 4 ou plus Total 22.3% 12.2% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% 37.9% 10.9% 8.1% 11.2% 2.1% 0.1% 32.4% 8.5% 8.9% 6.2% 4.4% 1.9% 29.7% 41.6% 29.2% 19.9% 7.2% 2.0% 100.0% Inclusion error Exclusion error Net effect on budget 53.6% 4.5% 48.9% Panel A. Nombre d'enfants âgés de 6-24 dans le ménage 50 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT There was substantial regional variation in the estimated rates of inappropriate benefit receipt (based on the definition in Panel C). Rates of inappropriate benefit receipt appeared to be lowest in the Nord Est and Sud Est regions; the largest apparent rates of inclusion error were observed in the Centre West and Sud West regions (Figure 35). Figure 35. Regional variation in rates of inappropriate benefit receipt % of beneficiary households 100% More children in school than benefits 80% Same benefits as children in school 60% More benefits than children in school 40% No children in school 20% No children 0% Grand Nord Est Nord Tunis West Centre Centre Sud Est Est West Sud West Total While the numbers in Table 2 and Figure 35 are large and suggest an urgent need for a clear definition and enforcement of PPAS eligibility criteria, they are not fully unexpected. Two characteristics of the PPAS program have likely contributed to these numbers: PPAS’ reliance on PNAFN eligibility suggests that beneficiary households are more likely to have older children; and the lack of regular eligibility re-certification suggests that many children in beneficiary households may have aged out of the eligible age range, but benefits continued. Recommendations include 1) a reevaluation of the optimal age range for program eligibility 2) a re-evaluation of the program’s restriction to PNAFN beneficiaries, and 3) a regular re-certification of program eligibility. Economic wellbeing of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households As a part of PNAFN, PPAS is intended to benefit poor and needy families. To assess targeting with respect to poverty, we compared whether beneficiary households, on average, are more likely than non-beneficiary households to be poor. Beneficiary and non-beneficiary households’ economic status was estimated on the basis of a poverty model (see Section 4). The poverty model was developed using data from the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey; it describes the association between a household’s composition, characteristics of household members, a variety of household assets, other characteristics of the household, and the household’s average annual per-capita expenditures. The poverty model is used 51 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT to estimate each beneficiary household’s and each non-beneficiary household’s relative economic status: higher predicted expenditures are indicative of a lower likelihood of poverty, whereas lower expenditures represent a higher likelihood of poverty. Figure 36. Distribution of estimated per-capita annual expenditures in PPAS beneficiary households and in the entire population in Tunisia 250000 Estimated total number of households with children ages 6-24 # of households 200000 150000 Estimated number of eligible households who benefit from the program 100000 50000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000+ Figure 36 shows the distribution of beneficiary households and the general population with respect to their estimated annual per capita expenditures; Table 4 compares the characteristics of eligible beneficiary households (households with at least one child age 6-24 enrolled in school who received program benefits in the 2013/2014 school year) with the characteristics of all Tunisian households with children and young adults ages 6-24, as estimated from the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey. On most indicators, eligible beneficiary households were worse off than the national average. The only exception was the number of children in the household: beneficiary households had fewer children, on average, than the national average. This observation may be explained by a) PNAFN’s primary focus on older caregivers, b) the (sometimes not enforced) requirement that at least one child had to be in school at enrollment; and c) the fact that many beneficiary “children” are in fact already above age 18. All would tend to result in larger number of siblings above age 18, either within or outside the household. Somewhat smaller differences were observed between beneficiary households and comparison households (Table 5), supporting the notion that neighbors of a poor household are also more likely to be poor. On average, beneficiary households were worse off than neighboring households that did not receive any benefits, and, with respect to many characteristics, also worse off relative to households that received back-to-school (BTS) benefits only. On average, PPAS beneficiary households’ annual per-capita expenditures were 660-808 Dinars below the national average, 239288 Dinars below that of neighboring households who received no benefits, and 34-61 Dinars below those who received back-to-school benefits only. 52 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 4. Comparison of beneficiary households with a representative sample of households from the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey Household characteristics Characteristics of eligible beneficiary households Characteristics of households in the 2010 Budget & Consumption Survey Mean (SD) or percent Mean (SD) or percent Difference in mean or % Assets Radio recorder Television Satellite dish Bookshelf Refrigerator Freezer Stove Washer Dishwasher Air-conditioner Computer Internet Mobile phone Car Motorcycle Bicycle 27% 95% 83% 2% 75% 1% 20% 18% 0% 3% 5% 3% 70% 0% 5% 4% 42% 97% 88% 13% 94% 5% 65% 60% 2% 17% 22% 12% 92% 16% 14% 7% 15% 2% 6% 11% 20% 4% 46% 43% 2% 14% 17% 9% 22% 16% 9% 2% *** * *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** * Housing Villa/apartment/studio # of rooms Connected to Sonede Connected to natural gas Flush toilet Bathroom with hot water Kitchen with sink Electric heating 21% 2.2 (1.1) 74% 8% 48% 5% 20% 1% 25% 3.2 (1.8) 83% 10% 52% 27% 68% 6% 5% 0.9 9% 1% 4% 22% 48% 5% ** *** *** (1.4) (0.9) (1.6) (0.2) 0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 *** *** *** *** 1.4 (1.5) 9% 3.0 (2.0) 34% 1.6 25% *** *** 1196.0 (445.2) 922.9 (345.8) 2004.8 (1136.0) 1583.2 (886.7) 808.8 660.4 *** *** Household # of children ages 0-17 # of young adults ages 18-24 # of adults ages 25-59 # of adults unable to work Average # of months worked, per person Head of family has secondary education Predicted per-capita expenditures (VWLS) Predicted per-capita expenditures (Q25) Number of households 1.5 1.2 3.7 0.4 789 (1.2) (1.0) (1.9) (0.7) 1.8 0.9 3.4 0.1 7438 Colors represent estimated associations with annual per-capita expenditures: 53 positive negative * *** *** *** Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 5. Comparisons of PPAS beneficiary households with neighboring households Household characteristics Assets Housing Household Difference of neighboring households relative to beneficiary households Characteristics of program beneficiary households Households with back-to-school benefits Households receiving no benefits Mean (SD) or percent Difference in mean or % Difference in mean or % Radio recorder Television Satellite dish Bookshelf Refrigerator Freezer Stove Washer Dishwasher Air-conditioner Computer Internet Phone_Mobile Car Motorcycle Bicycle 27% 95% 83% 2% 75% 1% 20% 18% 0.0 (0.0) 3% 5% 3% 70% 0% 5% 4% 9% 2% 6% 3% 5% 1% 6% 2% 0.0 0% -1% -1% 1% 2% 5% 3% Villa/apartment/studio # of rooms Connected to Sonede Connected to natural gas Flush toilet Bathroom with hot water Kitchen with sink Electric heating 21% 2.2 (1.1) 74% 8% 48% 5% 20% 1% 0% 0.3 -3% -4% -6% 2% -6% 1% # of children ages 0-17 # of young adults ages 18-24 # of adults ages 25-59 # of adults unable to work Average # of months worked, per person Head of family has secondary education Estimated per-capita expenditures (VWLS) Estimated per-capita expenditures (Q25) Number of households 1.5 1.2 3.7 0.4 ** ** ** * ** ** * ** * * 9% 3% 8% 7% 11% 2% 15% 21% 1% 8% 9% 8% 9% 11% 7% 6% *** ** *** *** *** ** *** *** ** *** *** *** *** *** *** *** 12% 0.3 5% 4% 11% 10% 9% 6% *** *** * * *** *** *** *** (1.2) (1.0) (1.9) (0.7) 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 -0.2 *** *** *** *** 0.8 -0.5 -0.7 -0.2 *** *** *** *** 1.4 (1.5) 9% 0.4 7% *** ** 0.8 18% *** *** 288.5 239.4 *** *** 1196.0 (445.2) 922.9 (345.8) 789 -60.7 -33.7 354 Colors represent estimated associations with annual per-capita expenditures: 54 * 616 positive association negative association Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT PPAS beneficiary households’ higher rates of poverty are also indicated by differences in the distributions of per-capita expenditures across beneficiary and non-beneficiary households (Figure 37). Distributions further to the left are reflective of poorer populations, whereas distributions further to the right are reflective of wealthier populations. The red beneficiary curve is substantially shifted to the left compared with the general population (gray curve), and to some extent relative to neighbors who do not receive any benefits (green curve). There appears to be a (comparatively small) group of beneficiary households who are well off and likely should not benefit from PPAS, which is intended for children in poor households. Figure 37. PPAS beneficiary households tend to be poorer than the general population .001 .0015 Predicted annual per-capita expenditures, in Dinars Density Program beneficiaries Neighbors, BTS benefit Neighbors, no benefits 0 .0005 National distribution 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 There was evidence of substantial geographic variation in the economic status of PPAS beneficiaries relative to non-beneficiaries and other households. While, on average, beneficiaries were economically worse off, the extent of economic targeting appeared to vary between regions (Figure 38). Beneficiaries were poorer than the comparison populations in the Nord Est, Center Est and Sud West regions. However, in Grand Tunis, Sud Est, and Center West, neighboring households who benefited from the periodic BTS education support at the beginning of the school year were worse off than those who received PPAS support. In the Nord West and Centre West regions, by contrast, there was no discernable difference in the economics status of beneficiaries relative to non-beneficiary neighbors, those who received annual support, or the general population. However, in the latter two regions, all populations were more likely to be poor. If the program intends to target the poorest nationally, a greater focus toward poor areas may be needed. If the program intends to target the poorest within each region, different targeting criteria may be needed for different geographic areas. 55 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 38. Regional variation in the relative economic wellbeing of beneficiary households (Estimated Dinars per person per year) 2000 3000 4000 5000 1000 2000 3000 .0005 .001 .0015 4000 5000 .0005 .001 .0015 Centre Est 0 0 .0005 .001 .0015 Nord West 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 4000 5000 Centre West 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 1000 2000 3000 .0005 .001 .0015 Sud West Program beneficiaries Neighbors, BTS benefit Neighbors, no benefits 0 0 .0005 .001 .0015 Sud Est 0 .0005 .001 .0015 1000 0 0 Nord Est 0 .0005 .001 .0015 Grand Tunis 0 0 Density .0005 .001 .0015 All households 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 National distribution Notes: Predictions are based on a poverty model from the 2010 Budget and Consumption Survey. Distributions are for households with children ages 5-17; predicted expenditures are capped at 5000 Dinars in this graph. 56 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Other characteristics of beneficiary and non-beneficiary households Several other differences exist between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Children in PPAS beneficiary households are older, on average, have a larger number of older siblings, and are more likely to live without either their mother or their father, compared with children in nonbeneficiary households (Table 6). These observations are consistent with the focus of PNAFN on the elderly and on single-parent households. Table 6. Characteristics of children in PPAS beneficiary and non-beneficiary households Non Child characteristics Bénéficiaires bénéficiaires Average age Mother died or absent Father died or absent # of older siblings Child labor, past week 13.6 4% 36% 2.0 6% 11.9 2% 6% 1.5 6% N 1390 2132 *** ** *** *** *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001 levels, respectively UNICEF defines child labor as 28 hours or more of any work, youth younger than age 12 working for financial compensation, or youth aged 12 or older working 14 or more hours per week for pay. According to this definition, among beneficiary households and non-beneficiary households, six percent of children ages 5-17 were engaged in child labor, with girls (8.4%) more than twice as likely than boys (3.9%) to be engaged in child labor. 57 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 7. Decision-making about schooling and school-related needs in PPAS beneficiary and nonbeneficiary households Non Bénéficiaires bénéficiaires Qui dans votre foyer décide si l’enfant va à l’école ou pas? Père Mère Enfant Grands-parents Quelqu'un d'autre 55% 57% 9% 1% 1% Qui dans votre foyer décide quand un enfant doit arrêter d’aller à l’école? Père 48% Mère 47% Enfant 22% Grands-parents 1% Quelqu'un d'autre 1% 86% 45% 5% 1% 1% *** *** ** 78% 34% 14% 1% 1% *** *** *** Pour l’un de vos enfants actuellement inscrits à l’école, quels sont les éléments manquants pour des contraintes financières? Cartable d’école 27% 23% * Livres scolaires 50% 43% ** Cahiers et autres fournitures scolaires 54% 49% * Transport scolaire 35% 26% *** Uniforme scolaire 56% 52% Leçons particulières et études 75% 76% Frais de scolarité, droit d’inscription 27% 22% * Autres 17% 13% * No contact with school officials in the past year 42% 27% *** *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001 levels, respectively Decision-making about children’s school enrollment and continuance in school differs between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, likely in part due to higher rates of paternal absence (Table 7). Children in PPAS beneficiary households are more likely to participate in the decisionmaking process, but overall rates are low. Beneficiary households have slightly higher rates of unmet school-related needs, including for school transport, school supplies, and fees. More than 40% of all beneficiary households reported no contact with school officials during the previous school year. 58 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Estimates of exclusion error The program, as currently structured, can cover approximately 3.8% of households and 3.5% of children in Tunisia. Thus, unless strict criteria limit program eligibility to a very small share of the population, the program is likely subject to substantial exclusion error. By definition, PPAS can only benefit PNAFN households, and 40,000 program beneficiary households may represent as many as 50% of all PNAFN households with children. However, it is not clear how these households compare with other poor households, and how children in beneficiary families compare to other children at risk of poor school performance and drop-out. Direct one-to-one comparisons between PPAS beneficiary households and the neighboring households who do not benefit from the program suggest that there is substantial variation in beneficiary households’ relative economic wellbeing. Figure 39 shows the distribution of differences in estimated annual per-capita expenditures between the respective neighbors. The distribution of differences is shown separately relative to neighboring households receiving annual back-to-school benefits and relative to neighboring households who received neither monthly nor annual benefits. A positive difference indicates that the beneficiary household is better off than its nearest neighbor; a negative difference indicates that the beneficiary household is worse off than the neighbor. If all PPAS beneficiary households were worse off than their neighbors, the curves would be right-censored (truncated) at zero. Difference to neighbors (back-to-school benefits only) Difference to neighbors (no benefits) 0 .0002 Density .0004 .0006 .0008 .001 Figure 39. Distribution of differences in estimated per-capita expenditures between PPAS beneficiary households and their nearest neighbors (Dinars per person per year) -8000 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 The results suggest that most beneficiary households are worse off than their neighboring households who received no benefits (blue line); however, on average, PPAS beneficiary households do not seem to be better or worse off than other households who received only the annual back-toschool benefits (red line). Thus, a program that provides school support only to PNAFN households, while reaching many poor, likely misses many other poor households, and sometimes poorer households, that do not benefit from PNAFN. 59 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Targeting experiences from other cash transfer programs The compilation of literature in Appendix 5 presents a range of targeting strategies used in education-focused transfer programs. Five main types of program are represented: means tests, geographic targeting, community-based targeting, categorical targeting, and self-targeting. Means tests are used to evaluate the economic status of a given household. Standard means tests typically collect information on household income and/or wealth, and can be either verified or unverified, depending on whether the information is checked against official records or from selfreport only. A verified means test is regarded as the gold standard of targeting strategies, but also costs the most and takes the longest to perform 125. Tunisia’s cash transfer program uses an unverified means test (PNAFN eligibility assessment) to determine household economic status, but this leaves room for misreporting that could severely impact the makeup of program beneficiaries. One solution gaining popularity among social policymakers is the proxy means test. This type of test usually assesses a (verified) list of various goods, appliances, and aspects of the dwelling, producing a score that approximates a household’s economic status. Fourteen of the programs in Appendix 5 utilize a proxy means test, indicating that there is growing experience and support for it as an efficient targeting method. Programs in Chile, Colombia, and Ecuador, for example, have established national indices or score-based welfare cards based on proxy means tests to indicate the degree of a household’s poverty. If policymakers in Tunisia deem it necessary to improve the targeting process of PPAS, formal proxy means testing may represent the next step in this direction. Geographic targeting, typically conducted on the national level, assesses available aggregate data about factors such as poverty, health, literacy, or education. It links this information to administrative areas (i.e. region, gouvernorate, or school district) and thus informs the selection of priority areas for the cash transfer. Some documents imply that there may have been regional-level geographic targeting earlier in the PNAFN’s history 126, but there are no indications that this has continued apart from variation in regional quotas for the program. In the studies presented in Appendix 5, only smaller programs used geographic targeting exclusively, while a handful of larger programs used it as a complement to other strategies. Community-based targeting can take several different forms. In principle, it relies on the knowledge of local schools, committees, social workers, or others to identify households that should receive a transfer. While this strategy utilizes valuable first-hand experience of local leaders, its subjectivity allows room for bias and small-scale corruption. Hossain describes one particularly negative experience with community-based targeting in the Bangladesh Primary Education Stipend. She blames the failures of this program on the local-level bias and corruption rooted in its beneficiary selection process, arguing that teachers often chose students as beneficiaries based on merit rather than poverty 67. This example shows why successful community-based targeting often requires clear communication of program objectives and strong checks on those making selections. Categorical targeting and self-targeting, respectively, represent the purest top-down and bottom-up approaches. Categorical targeting involves a review of existing government records to generate a list of those who match a firm set of inclusion criteria such as age, gender, or enrollment in a certain grade range. This method is primarily used for programs that are universally targeted (i.e. to all children), when national-level records are considered complete and accurate, or to expedite the 60 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT targeting of programs that are aimed towards a subset of the population (e.g. girls). Self-targeting occurs when a program establishes eligibility criteria and depends on potential beneficiaries to identify themselves. This is one part of the targeting strategy used in Tunisia, since the beneficiary household typically initiates the application processes for PNAFN as well as PPAS. Coady et al. 125 provide an overview of the range of targeting strategies used worldwide, concluding that interventions using means testing, geographic testing, or self-selection tend to yield the best targeting performance. They also conclude that using more targeting methods results in better targeting performance. Many countries have implemented multiple targeting strategies: 14 of the 33 programs reviewed used two different strategies, and one (Peru) used three strategies. Not all of the programs in this sample appear to have undergone targeting evaluations. Of those whose targeting has been evaluated, most are described in only a short paragraph or section embedded within a larger impact evaluation. A vast majority of these describe targeting as positive or effective, with exceptions in Bangladesh, Mozambique, and some regions of Chile 63,67,127. Summary of program targeting The lack of explicit eligibility criteria that determine a household’s eligibility for PPAS precludes a precise estimate of inclusion and exclusion errors. At present, the only consistently implemented eligibility restriction is a household’s eligibility for PNAFN. Errors of inclusion and exclusion for the PNAFN program could not be evaluated in this study. Households benefiting from PPAS tend to be poorer than the national average and poorer than neighboring households who do not benefit from financial assistance for their children’s schooling. However, there is substantial geographic variation in the extent to which the program appears to target the poorest populations, and in the extent to which beneficiaries of monthly benefits differ from non-beneficiary households and households who receive only annual back-to-school benefits. The lack of a clear focus of the program is reflected in inadequate targeting performance: while the program tends to benefit poorer households with children of school-eligible age, loose eligibility criteria would suggest that PPAS is currently subject to a large error of exclusion, whereas a tighter specification of eligibility criteria, such as a focus on only children enrolled in school or only on the poorest, would suggest that the program is currently subject to a large error of inclusion. Further, limiting PPAS eligibility only to PNAFN households precludes many poor non-PNAFN households from accessing these benefits. The key recommendation is that the program’s objectives be clarified in order to optimize program targeting. Clear eligibility criteria, consistent with the program’s objectives, need to be identified and enforced, in order to ensure that program benefits reach the intended target populations. Multiple targeting methods may need to be employed, and different eligibility criteria may need to be considered in different areas, to ensure that the program reaches those most in need, however, efforts to minimize exclusion and inclusion error need to take into consideration the cost of confirming and monitoring eligibility. Sources of geographic variation in targeting should be explored (and addressed), and the extent to which the program is intended to reduce within-area inequalities vs. between-area inequalities needs to be clarified. Experiences from education-related cash transfer programs in other countries may help inform the optimal re-design of targeting strategies for PPAS. Specific recommendations are provided in Section 11. 61 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 10. Results - Part IV: Impact This section describes the extent to which PPAS reached its objectives, including both short-term and longer-term objectives: o o o to improve households’ economic status, to increase households’ investment in children’s education, and to improve children’s school enrollment, attendance, performance and retention. We first describe key informants’ expectations of program impact, followed by an analysis of data from the surveys with local decision makers and with beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Expectations of program impact among key informants Key informants were asked about their opinions of the program’s impact on beneficiary households’ education expenses, on school enrollment, and on dropout rates of recipients. Informants were also asked, on a scale of 1 (bad) to 5 (very good), how they would rate the current performance of the program on various categories, including targeting, the appropriateness of the benefit amount, and its impact. Figure 40 summarizes these ratings. While targeting was perceived as neither good nor poor, on average, the appropriateness of the benefit amount was rated poor and opinions regarding the program’s impact were worst. Figure 40. Average ratings of stakeholders Several ideas raised in key informant interviews suggested that the benefit structure of the cash transfer program should vary based on certain non-behavioral criteria. As it exists now, this national program delivers an equal amount of aid to each child living in an eligible household (up to 3 “Living with DT 500 children per household). Interviewees almost all suggested that in Gabés is not the increased PPAS benefit amounts would make more of a difference same as living with than the current amount in terms of educational outcomes. DT 500 in Tunis.” Characteristics such as region, urbanicity, poverty level, and school level could be used to tailor benefit amounts to reflect each 62 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT household’s specific circumstances. Of particular interest was the idea that cash transfer amounts should mirror the changes to schooling costs that occur as students progress to higher grade levels. There was some disagreement, however, around whether geography should play a role in the benefit amount. Several informants pointed out that the cost of living varies considerably between urban and rural areas, while Key Informant #1 pointed out that even designating a household as urban or rural is not always easy. This informant also noted that an urban/rural parameter influencing benefit amounts could create a gradient between locations that some would likely perceive as unfair. Respondents also recommended that evaluators and program “Other programs officials consider modifying the timing and delivery of the aid have failed due to transfers. Several respondents pointed out that the scheduling of benefits can affect how households perceive and ultimately use the isolation and money they receive. Careful coordination with (or around) other failure to work payments such as PNAFN, back to school benefits, and regular together.” paychecks could subtly remind families that the monthly cash transfers are separate from other sources of income and intended for use on educational expenses. There was also discussion about whether the transfers have more impact on spending behaviors in smaller, monthly payments (the current strategy), or if it would be better to lump these together and distribute them less frequently. Another topic covered was the idea of in-kind aid (namely school supplies) as a more direct way of offsetting educational costs for households. Even in the form of a voucher/card system, respondents saw logistical challenges to implementing this idea as a part of the current transfer program. Still, it was noted that a non-transferrable voucher system with a proper identification system could optimize the program’s impact while directly supporting local markets for school supplies. One respondent felt that in-kind aid is a “thing of the past” as far as this program is concerned, and that it instead falls into the realm of NGOs, charities, and other government-run assistance strategies. Others were still open to the idea of in-kind support once a year and/or in combination with the existing transfers for education. One should note that Union Tunisienne de la Solidarité Sociale (UTSS) and the Ministry of Women and Children, both key stakeholders in the transfer program, still work to deliver in-kind aid to poor and vulnerable children. A clear divide remains among all stakeholders regarding the proper role of in-kind aid: left alone as a remnant of the past regime, entrusted to NGOs and civil society, or formally utilized in conjunction with cash transfers. While the key informant interviews intended to explore awareness of the existence of the cash transfer for education program, respondents focused mostly on the idea that few members of the public share an accurate understanding of PNAFN and PPAS. Social workers, word of mouth, and some multimedia advertising currently serve as the key conduits for information. It was expressed in interviews that virtually everyone in Tunisia is familiar with the program, but not everyone has a correct grasp of the details. This information includes not only eligibility criteria or where to enroll in the program, but also the core principles that the program exists independently of PNAFN and intends to help offset household educational expenses. Interviewees believed that awareness of these key facts can be reinforced through attempts to enhance cognizance among household leaders. Key Informant #1 commented specifically on households making the psychological link 63 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT between education and payments: “make sure people are thinking about it, and this would probably improve the impact” (September, 2013). Proposed methods for increasing this form of awareness among households ranged from explicit reminders (e.g., national advertising, social worker communication) to subtle changes in scheduling (e.g., aligning payments with the beginning of each academic trimester). Several respondents expressed that a simultaneous focus on making both monetary and psychological impact at the household level is the key for improving the overall educational impact of the cash transfer system. Each respondent shared the belief that social workers and outreach staff play key roles in the success of this program. As the main point of contact with beneficiaries, they bear much of the responsibility for following up with their clients. Several key informants see them as critical players in the “protection” of children from the harms of poverty and dropout, and recommended that further efforts be made to ensure regular (at least annual) home visits—not just when issues arise. Although the scale of the program seems to be manageable for the current outreach workforce, several respondents mentioned a need for more logistical support for these personnel. Specifically mentioned were barriers resulting from the need to share computers or automobiles with colleagues in order to thoroughly fulfill their duties. Social workers were also said to possess an important combination of knowledge and power regarding program awareness and eligibility. This power can be harnessed to improve impact and monitoring on the household level, but it could also backfire in the form of personal bias, familiarity, or political clientelism. Either way, social workers are in a unique position to observe the household as a whole (rather than just in terms of financial and demographic statistics) and gather subjective information that is otherwise difficult to obtain. If effective, a social worker is seen as having the potential to identify all of a household’s needs and connect them to the appropriate services. Finally, respondents provided input on both internal and external evaluation efforts relating to the cash transfer program. In terms of monitoring and evaluation by program administrators, interviews revealed a clear need for more regular, continuous, and systematic efforts to track the status and progress of the program. As it stands, the monitoring and evaluation system is said to depend mostly on site visits and the circulation of memos, but these tend to happen only when problems arise. Key Informant #5 also mentioned that internal evaluation would benefit from increased collaboration with diverse organizations throughout civil society (September 2013). Respondents’ overall interest in the current external evaluation focused mostly on 1) the program’s impact on educational spending, 2) efficiency in targeting and delivery, and 3) effectiveness in terms of communication and awareness. One informant specifically expressed the expectation that the evaluation would provide a much-needed evidence-based figure for benefit amounts, which appear to have been chosen somewhat arbitrarily. Another notable area of interest was the impact on the child itself; one individual wondered how much of the money provided actually benefits the children rather than just the parents, while another expressed a desire to know more about the long-term impact of the cash transfer program as a way to prevent a child’s future need for social assistance. As these individuals will likely be involved in the program’s next steps, it is important to take into account their experiences and perspectives. 64 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Social workers’ perception of program impact Social workers perceived a limited impact of the PPAS program on the educational outcomes of children. While a narrow majority felt that the benefit amount was sufficient to impact households’ educational expenses, one third indicated no impact at all and fewer than 20% felt that the program had a positive impact on school enrollment, school performance, and/or school attendance (Figure 41). Figure 41. Social workers’ perception of the adequacy of the benefit amount In your opinion, is the benefit amount sufficient to have a positive impact on… Education expenses 52% School attendance 13% School performance 17% School enrollment/dropout 23% None of the above 35% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Asked about the most appropriate monthly payment amount, more than half of respondents indicated that the amount should be more than doubled, with one quarter of respondents suggesting that the amount be increased to more than 30 Dinar per child per month (Figure 42). Figure 42. Social workers’ perception of the optimal benefit amount In your opinion, what would be the most appropriate monthly payment amount for this program? (Dinar per month per child) 50% 43% 40% 30% 26% 23% 20% 10% 9% 0% 10 Dinar or less 11-20 Dinar 21-30 Dinar More than 30 Dinar Social workers had diverse perceptions of schooling attendance among PPAS beneficiaries. Consistent with the findings on program targeting, only a minority (40%) of social workers thought that all children who benefit from the program regularly go to school (Figure 43, Panel A); however, approximately half of the respondents felt that at least some beneficiary children who regularly go to school would not go to school without the program (Figure 43, Panel B). 65 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 43. Social workers’ perceptions of the program’s impact on children’s schooling PANEL A. Of 10 random children who currently receive PPAS payments, how many do you believe regularly go to school? 60% 40% 40% 20% 30% 17% 6% 6% 0-4 5-7 0% 8-9 10 Don't know PANEL B. Of 10 random children who currently receive PPAS payments, how many would not go to school without the benefit? 40% 32% 30% 23% 19% 20% 19% 6% 10% 0% None 1-2 3-5 6-10 Don't know Recommendations by social workers to increase program impact In addition to the appropriateness of the benefit amounts, local social welfare workers were asked about ways in which the program could be modified to increase its impact. Responses were split when social workers were asked whether program benefits should be paid monthly, quarterly, or at the beginning of the school year (Figure 44). Figure 44. To have the greatest impact on school enrollment, attendance, and performance, when should PPAS benefits be paid? 33% 38% Monthly Quarterly At the beginning of the school year 29% 66 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Social welfare workers’ opinions also varied on the optimal re-certification interval for PPAS benefits (Figure 45). When asked how often households should re-certify their children’s eligibility, the most frequent response was quarterly re-certification; nearly two thirds of respondents preferred either quarterly or monthly re-certification to maintain PPAS benefits. Figure 45. To have the greatest impact on school enrollment, attendance, and performance, how often should households re-certify their children’s eligibility for PPAS benefits? 2% Monthly, 13% At the beginning of the school year, 33% Monthly Quarterly At the beginning of the school year Less frequently Quarterly, 52% This finding suggests a preference among social workers for a program that provides benefits conditional on maintaining school attendance in addition to children’s annual re-enrollment in school. Further support for a conditional transfer program is provided by the answers to a question about the expected impact of conditionality on school enrollment, attendance, and performance. Figure 46 indicates that the majority of respondents expected a greater impact of the program if benefits were tied to presence of the children in school and not only to children’s enrollment. Figure 46. Expected impact of conditionality on school enrollment, attendance, and performance If benefits were bound to presence in school, do you think the impact of the program on school enrollment, attendance and performance would be the same, slightly higher, or much higher? Much higher impact, 35% Same impact, 40% Slightly higher impact, 25% 67 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT In total, approximately two thirds of social workers preferred that continued receipt of benefits be conditional on incurring educational expenses (52%), children’s school attendance (38%), and/or children’s school performance (15%; Figure 47). Figure 47. Social workers’ perceptions regarding conditionality of PPAS benefits In your opinion, should the continuation of monthly benefits be dependent on… Education expenses 52% School attendance 38% School performance School enrollment 15% 0% None of the above 33% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Importantly, when asked to choose between cash payments to households and in-kind assistance as a means of improving children’s school enrollment, attendance and performance, the majority of respondents preferred the provision of in-kind assistance through schools to the direct financial assistance to households (Figure 48). Figure 48. Social workers’ preferences for cash vs. in-kind provision of school support In-kind assistance to children through schools, 59% Cash assistance to households, 41% Further, and conceptually related: one third of respondents felt that PPAS beneficiaries cognitively link PPAS and PNAFN benefits, i.e., that most beneficiaries consider PPAS benefits as a regular part of PNAFN. By contrast, 45% indicated that most beneficiary families think that PPAS payments are specifically for the education of their children. These findings are in line with responses from key informants that indicate that at present, there is no direct link of program benefits to children’s education. 68 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Variation in benefit amounts was a common topic in interviews with key informants. Social workers were asked about 18 different characteristics of households and/or children, and whether the benefit amount should vary with these characteristics. Social workers broadly supported variation in benefits, for a minimum of 3, mean of 10, and maximum of 16 criteria across respondents. Economic characteristics and household composition were most frequently mentioned, followed by children’s school enrollment and attendance (Figure 49). Respondents generally opposed varying benefit levels with children’s gender or grade level, or school performance. Figure 49. Social welfare workers’ attitudes toward variation in the PPAS benefit amounts Please tell us about your agreement with the following statements: “The monthly benefit amount for a child should depend on ...” Disagree Neutral / undecided Household income Agree 91% 6% Household assets 10% 85% Number of children in the family 9% 87% Parental employment 13% Child’s school enrollment 83% 15% Child’s school attendance 79% 11% Land ownership 80% 15% 72% Disability of a household member 21% 68% Cost of living 25% 69% Eligibility for other social programs 20% Distance of child’s residence to school 27% Child’s health status 54% 38% Rural vs. urban residence 52% 46% 39% Gender of the head of household 52% Child’s school performance 33% 32% 55% Parents’ engagement in school activities 55% Child’s grade level Child’s gender 70% 19% 66% 15% 85% 100% 50% 69 0% 50% 100% Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Impact on household budgets and education expenses Household surveys assessed educational expenditures, in order to compare them with the PPAS monthly benefit amount and with expenditures for food and other household expenses. Table 8 shows the average household-reported expenditures on children’s education in primary school and in colleges and lycées. Expenditures are shown per child in order to assess economies of scale. Table 8. Household expenditures for children’s education PANEL A. Expenses per child in écoles publiques d'enseignement primaire 1 enfant 2 enfants 3 enfants Moyenne Dépenses le mois dernier : 46 40 29 42 31 3 11 28 2 10 22 2 5 29 3 10 496 387 264 442 173 111 103 2 108 133 85 86 1 83 79 64 72 2 48 152 99 95 1 95 repas à l'école transport scolaire cours particuliers Dépenses totales pendant année scolaire : frais de scolarité (inscription, cours particuliers,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repart, …) PANEL B. Expenses per child en collèges et lycées publics 1 enfant 2 enfants 3 enfants Moyenne Dépenses le mois dernier: 75 63 51 70 38 16 21 32 16 16 28 12 11 36 16 19 Dépenses totales pendant année scolaire: 638 458 401 573 frais de scolarité (inscription, cours particuliers,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repart, …) 220 137 131 5 146 143 112 98 13 92 106 94 98 9 93 191 127 119 8 128 repas à l'école transport scolaire cours particuliers Note: Numbers represent self-reports from beneficiary and non-beneficiary households; numbers are rounded to the nearest Dinar. The column on the right shows the average expenditures per child in primary (Panel A) or secondary (Panel B) school, respectively. The data suggest substantial monthly and annual costs, and differences between the costs of primary and secondary school. In primary school, the program’s 10 Dinars per month per child amount covers nearly 25% of the monthly cost of schooling; in secondary school only one-seventh of the monthly cost is covered by the program. The largest householdreported monthly cost of education related to school meals. When comparing the cost of schooling to the monthly payment of 10 Dinars per child for up to 3 children, the program payments seem to be small but not negligible. 70 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT There are substantial annual costs for children’s schooling: enrollment fees constitute the largest cost, followed nearly equally by school supplies, uniforms and other items. It is plausible that these annual costs constitute significant barriers to schooling among the poorest students. “The aid amount needs to reflect the responsibility we’re putting on the parents to get or keep their kids in school.” Aggregating the monthly cost of schooling across all children who currently attend primary or secondary school, households’ self-reported educational expenses appeared to constitute a substantial portion of households’ overall budgets (Table 9). Without attempting to validate individual households’ responses, the self-reported education expenses may be as high as one-half of households’ monthly food expenses and more than one-quarter of households’ total monthly expenses. Table 9. Household expenditures for children’s education, nutrition, and total expenses 1 enfant 2 enfants 3 enfants Moyenne Dépenses mensuelles du ménage Dépenses totales Dépenses pour la nourriture 376 210 388 221 406 233 387 219 67 644 122 971 196 1329 117 922 Dépenses pour l'éducation primaire et secondaire Dépenses mensuelles Dépenses annuelles Note: Numbers represent self-reports from beneficiary and non-beneficiary households; numbers are rounded to the nearest Dinar. Monthly household expenditures on education varied greatly across households (Figure 50), and there was little difference between PPAS beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. The plurality of households spent between 25 and 50 Dinars per month per child on educational expenses. Figure 50. Distribution of monthly expenses for primary and secondary education in beneficiary households and their nearest neighbors 40% 35% 30% 25% Beneficiary households 20% Neighbors 15% 10% 5% 0% 0 - 24 25 - 49 50 - 74 75 - 99 100 - 124 125+ Dépenses mensuelles pour l'éducation primaire et secondaire, par enfant 71 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Similar variation was observed in the distribution of annual expenditures, with the plurality of households spending between 250 and 500 Dinars per year per child (Figure 51). Figure 51. Distribution of annual expenses for primary and secondary education in PPAS beneficiary households and their nearest neighbors 40% 30% Beneficiary households Neighbors 20% 10% 0% 0 - 249 250 - 499 500 - 749 750 - 999 1000 - 1249 1250 - 1499 1500+ Dépenses annuelles pour l'éducation primaire et secondaire, par enfant When directly comparing the educational expenditures of PPAS beneficiary and non-beneficiary households, non-beneficiary households had greater educational expenditures (100 Dinars per month) than beneficiary households (63 Dinars per month). Similarly, annual education expenses were higher in non-beneficiary households (890 Dinars) than beneficiary households (550 Dinars). Once we control for the number of children in school, however, the differences disappear, with beneficiary households (60 Dinars per child per month, 539 Dinars per child per year) and nonbeneficiary households (56 Dinars per child per month, 522 Dinars per child per year) spending similar amounts. Table 10 shows adjusted differences in educational expenditures between beneficiary households and non-beneficiary households. The dependent variable represents total monthly (left column) and annual (right column) expenditures on education; each expense was transformed using the natural log. Positive parameters indicate higher spending associated with the variables listed on the left, whereas negative parameters indicate lower spending. As expected, household expenses increase with additional children in school, and they increase more for children in secondary school than for those in primary school. Households’ economic status (expressed by estimated per-capita annual expenditures, total monthly expenditures, and food expenditures) are strongly associated with increased monthly expenditures for schooling, but less so with annual expenditures. Distance to school is associated with higher monthly expenditures, whereas urban residence is associated with higher annual schooling-related expenses. Effects estimates can be obtained by exponentiating the estimated coefficients; the coefficient of 0.101 for beneficiary households indicates that, controlling for other characteristics, households receiving PPAS, on average, spent 10.6% more each month for their children’s primary and secondary education than households that do not receive these benefits. There was no difference in annual expenditures. 72 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 10. Estimated effect of the program on households’ expenses for children’s education Estimated effect on households' expenditures for children's education Log(monthly expenses) beta (se) Beneficiary household Log(annual expenses) beta (se) 0.101 (0.045) * -0.002 (0.040) Per-capita annual expenditures (log) 0.316 (0.061) *** Monthly nutrition expenditures (log) 0.156 (0.064) * -0.058 (0.057) Monthly total expenditures (log) 0.172 (0.075) * 0.21 (0.066) ** 1 0.432 (0.057) *** 0.376 (0.051) *** 2 0.843 (0.068) *** 0.689 (0.060) *** 3 0.917 (0.106) *** 0.774 (0.093) *** 1 0.79 (0.053) *** 0.647 (0.047) *** 2 1.282 (0.066) *** 0.907 (0.059) *** 3 1.441 (0.118) *** 1.1 (0.103) *** 0.377 (0.076) *** # of children in primary school # of children in secondary school Urban residence 0.072 (0.086) Distance to nearest primary school 0.034 (0.011) Distance to nearest college -0.004 (0.005) Distance to nearest lycess 0.007 (0.003) ** 0.049 (0.054) 0.005 (0.010) -0.008 (0.004) * -0.001 (0.003) Notes: Estimates are derived from linear regression models of monthly (left) and annual (right) household expenditures for children’s primary and secondary education. Dependent variables were transformed using the natural log. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001 levels, respectively. 73 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT In Table 7 we described the households’ self-reported unmet needs for children’s education. Asked how much money would be needed to meet all of their children’s education needs in the current school year, most households mentioned amounts that substantially exceed the cumulative annual benefit amount provided by PPAS (Figure 52). More than half of the households reported unmet needs exceeding 500 Dinar for the current school year. There were few differences between beneficiary and non-beneficiary households. Figure 52. Unmet needs of PPAS beneficiary and non-beneficiary households for children’s schooling % of households De combien d’argent supplémentaire avez-vous besoin pour fournir les éléments manquants pour tous vos enfants au cours de cette année scolaire? (Dinars par an) 35 30 25 20 15 Beneficiaries 10 Non-beneficiaries 5 0 <100 100-199 200-299 300-499 500-749 750-999 1000+ School attendance and school performance Past-week school attendance for those in school was high: 95.5% among beneficiary households and 94.5% among non-beneficiary households; the difference was not statistically significant. Household surveys asked about each child’s performance relative to other children in the same class. The results suggest that, on average, children in beneficiary households performed worse than children in non-beneficiary households (Figure 53). This result is not surprising, as these households are poorer, on average, and children in these households have likely faced and are still facing many difficulties that affect school performance. Figure 53. Children’s school performance in comparison with their peers Par rapport à son/ses camarades de classe, comment est sa performance à l'école? 100% Supérieure 80% Similaire 60% Inférieure 40% 20% 0% Non bénéficiaires Bénéficiaires 74 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Importantly, there were significant differences in parents’ expectations regarding the minimum amount of schooling for children in beneficiary vs. non-beneficiary households. PPAS beneficiaries were less likely to feel that their children should get post-secondary education (Figure 54). Figure 54. Au minimum, un garçon / une fille devrait rester scolarisé jusqu’à quel niveau d’études? 100% Ne sait pas 80% Supérieur 60% 67% 75% 67% 77% 40% 20% Secondaire Collège Primaire 21% 17% 20% 18% Beneficiaries Non-beneficiaries Beneficiaries Non-beneficiaries 0% Males Females School progression, grade repetition, and drop-out The primary objective of PPAS is to improve children’s school performance and decrease rates of school drop-out. To evaluate the effect of the program on drop-out, we assessed the entire educational history of each child age 6-17 who had ever attended school. The analysis of not only the current year’s schooling but the entire schooling history allowed us to analyze children’s annual progression to the next grade level, grade repetition, and dropout, from the year in which they first enrolled in school until the current school year (Figure 55). Due to the lack of national data that would allow for comparisons of school performance across schools, annual rates of children’s progression to the next grade level were considered the primary measure of school performance. Figure 55. Example from the form used to assess each child’s schooling history (comparable data were collected for all school years from 1999/2000 to 2013/2014) 75 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Schooling histories were collected from PPAS beneficiary households and neighboring households for all children ages 6-24 who ever attended school. In total, schooling histories were collected for 2,583 children. For each school year after the child first enrolled in school until the current school year, we determined a) whether the child was enrolled in school, b) whether at the end of the school year the child progressed to the next higher grade level, c) whether the child repeated the current grade level, or d) whether the child dropped out of school. Because of extensive changes in the macro context in Tunisia over time, and in view of the fact that the education benefit program started only in 2007, the analyses presented below are limited to the school years from 2005/2006 until 2013/2014. Thus, for each child, school enrollment and grade level were observed up to 9 consecutive times, with educational outcomes of each school year (grade progression, grade repetition, or drop-out) observed up to 8 times. Because schooling decisions differ after the 9th grade level, only outcomes through the 8th grade of primary school were included in the analysis. Using these data, we created a panel dataset with one record per school year per child. In total the data included 13,485 observations on education outcomes, i.e. we observed for each of 13,485 school years whether the child continued to the next grade level, repeated the grade level, or dropped out of school. We linked each school year to administrative data from the education benefit program to determine whether the household benefited from the education benefit or not (yet). This information was analyzed in a multivariate regression framework, implemented in the form of a random effects model, which accounted for the effect of each child’s time-invariant characteristics on grade progression, grade repetition, and drop-out. To estimate the effect of program benefits on education outcomes we first used data from beneficiary households prior to the onset of benefits, and for all school years from neighboring households, to predict what would have happened in the absence of the program. Parameter estimates from separate models were estimated to predict for each child and each school year the probability of grade progression, grade repetition, and drop-out. The results of these models are shown in Table 11. The interpretation of the parameters is similar to those from a standard logistic regression model: an odds ratio greater than 1 indicates that a variable is positively associated with the outcome (higher rate of grade progression, higher rate of grade repetition, and higher drop-out); an odds ratio below 1 indicates that a variable is negatively associated with the outcome. Asterisks indicate the statistical significance of the association. The results of the models suggest that prior to PPAS benefit receipt, children in beneficiary households had worse educational outcomes than children in non-beneficiary households (an odds ratio for neighboring households greater than 1 for progression to the next grade level, and odds ratios below than 1 for grade repetition and drop-out). Children who currently repeat a grade level are unlikely to repeat the grade level again and have significantly elevated chance of dropping out. Female children, children whose parents expect them to reach a higher level of education, and children in economically better-off households, as well as children in households whose head has at least a secondary education, are more likely to continue to the next grade level, less likely to repeat a grade level, and less likely to drop out of school. Greater distance to the nearest college was associated with increased rates of drop-out (odds ratio greater than 1 for distance), and there appeared to be a trend toward higher rates of grade repetition over time (odds ratio greater than one for the time trend). 76 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 11. Estimates of random effects models of grade progression, repetition, and drop-out in the absence of PPAS Odds ratio Confidence interval Progression to the next grade level Child lives in a neighboring household Child is currently repeating a grade level Child is female Child expected is to reach "superior" level 1.38 1.74 2.01 2.16 *** *** *** *** [1.16 - 1.63] [1.41 - 2.14] [1.70 - 2.39] [1.79 - 2.61] Head of household has secondary education Log(predicted per-capita expenditures) Distance to the nearest primary school (km) Time trend (calendar years) 2.32 *** 2.89 *** 1.00 0.94 ** [1.75 - 3.09] [2.23 - 3.73] [0.98 - 1.01] [0.91 - 0.98] Child lives in a neighboring household Child is currently repeating a grade level Child is female Child expected is to reach "superior" level 0.81 0.24 0.54 0.58 ** *** *** *** [0.69 - 0.95] [0.18 - 0.32] [0.46 - 0.63] [0.49 - 0.70] Head of household has secondary education Log(predicted per-capita expenditures) Distance to the nearest primary school (km) Time trend (calendar years) 0.51 *** 0.43 *** 0.99 1.05 ** [0.39 - 0.66] [0.34 - 0.54] [0.98 - 1.00] [1.01 - 1.09] Child lives in a neighboring household Child is currently repeating a grade level Child is female Child expected is to reach "superior" level 0.68 7.73 0.70 0.45 ** *** ** *** [0.54 - 0.86] [6.09 - 9.81] [0.55 - 0.88] [0.35 - 0.57] Head of household has secondary education Log(predicted per-capita expenditures) Distance to the nearest primary school (km) Time trend (calendar years) 0.37 *** 0.41 *** 1.03 ** 0.99 [0.21 - 0.65] [0.29 - 0.60] [1.01 - 1.05] [0.93 - 1.06] Grade repetition Temporary or permanent drop-out Notes: Estimates from random effects logistic regression models of annual grade progression, repetition, and drop-out following grades P1 through P8. Models include the entire schooling history of all children ages 5-19, including 8,455 outcomes among 2,276 children in both non-beneficiary households and beneficiary households prior to benefit receipt. Models control for variation in grade progression between individual grade levels and over time, and for regional variation. *, **, and *** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05, 0.01, and 0.001 levels, respectively. Estimated associations between poverty and educational outcomes as well as other estimates were roughly identical for models based on quantile regressions and variance-weighted least squares models. 77 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Using parameter estimates from these models, we compared the educational outcomes of children in beneficiary households after the onset of benefits to what would be expected in the absence of benefits. Specifically, we included the predicted values of grade progression, grade repetition, and drop-out from the models shown in Table 11 as explanatory variables in a second set of random effects logistic regression models with the same outcome variables. The second set of models was only estimated for beneficiary households. Because applications for financial support may be the result of prior difficulties, which also may influence children’s educational outcomes, we assessed trends in children’s educational outcomes prior to and after the onset of benefit, relative to the year in which the household first started receiving benefits from the program. The results of these analyses are shown in Table 12 and displayed graphically in Figure 56. Table 12. Results of logistic regression models of progression to the next grade level, rates of repeating grade levels, and rates of drop-out prior to and after the onset of program benefits Progression to the next grade level Odds Confidence ratio interval Grade repetition Odds Confidence ratio interval Temporary or permanent drop-out Odds Confidence ratio interval School year relative to benefit onset 3 or more years prior 0.71 [0.36 - 1.41] 1.69 [0.88 - 3.27] 0.26 [0.03 - 2.06] 2 years prior 0.67 [0.37 - 1.21] 1.38 [0.75 - 2.55] 1.26 [0.45 - 3.54] 1 year prior 0.76 [0.46 - 1.26] 1.18 [0.70 - 1.99] 1.44 [0.63 - 3.29] Year of onset (ref) (ref) (ref) 1 year after 0.65 ** [0.48 - 0.89] 1.45 * [1.05 - 1.99] 1.26 2 years after 0.65 * [0.46 - 0.93] 1.24 [0.85 - 1.81] 1.57 [0.89 - 2.77] 3 years after 0.70 [0.47 - 1.04] 1.36 [0.91 - 2.04] 1.07 [0.55 - 2.06] 4 or more years after 0.76 [0.50 - 1.17] 1.27 [0.81 - 1.99] 0.98 [0.49 - 1.95] [0.74 - 2.16] Estimates from random effects logistic regression models controlling for the probability of grade progression, repetition, and drop-out, respectively. * and ** indicate statistical significance at the 0.05 and 0.01 levels. The results indicate a trend toward poorer educational outcomes of children in PPAS beneficiary households in all years except the school year in which the household started to receive benefits from the program. Conversely, there appears to be a temporary improvement in rates of grade progression, reduced rates of grade repetition, and reduced rates of drop-out, in the school year in which the household first received benefits from the program. For progression to the next grade level and grade repetition, these improvements were statistically significant. These results are consistent with an interpretation of a temporary positive effect on children’s educational outcomes. 78 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Figure 56. Graphical representation of the estimated effect of PPAS benefit receipt on progression to the next grade level, rates of repeating grade levels, and rates of drop-out 1.2 Repeated grades Grade progression Drop-out 1.8 Odds of Drop-out relative to onset of benefits 1 1.6 Odds of repeating a grade level Odds of continuing to the next grade level 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 0 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 The small, but likely positive, effect of the program is also reflected in responses from beneficiary households about the effect of the program benefit on their decision to keep a child in school. While one-third of households indicated that the program had influenced their decision, nearly one in four households indicated no effect, or probably no effect (Figure 57). Figure 57. Self-reported effect of PPAS on schooling Pour chacun de vos enfants, est-ce que les allocations ont influencé votre décision de l’envoyer ou ne pas l’envoyer à l’école? Bien sûr que non 16% Bien sûr que oui 35% Probablement pas 8% Bien sûr que oui Probablement Peut-être Probablement pas Bien sûr que non Peut-être 32% Probablement 9% 79 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Estimates of impact from other cash transfer programs The literature review summarized in Appendix 5 describes key results of the many impact evaluations of other educational-focused cash transfer programs. No two evaluations investigated the same combination of variables, so it helps to first look at the range of outcomes measured, including enrollment, attendance, dropout, re-entry, access to education, participation in education, test scores, grade repeats and progression, regular school performance, % never schooled, female to male ratio, poverty, child labor, age at marriage, spending on education, spending on household goods and food, and psychosocial factors such as self-confidence. While it is difficult to generalize across most variables, a majority of the programs saw increases in enrollment and attendance. This is not surprising, given that almost all cash transfers in this list are conditional on these two factors. Impacts on school performance were mixed, possibly due to the fact that they encourage the enrollment of students who had previously dropped out and/or had been absent for an extended period of time. Mexico’s Oportunidades and Brazil’s Bolsa Familia are commonly described as the most successful conditional cash transfer programs in the world 107, but it is generally difficult to compare programs across the varied contexts in which they exist. The rapid spread of educationfocused transfer programs over the past two decades, however, is no coincidence. Within their particular context, each of the evaluated programs demonstrated at least some positive impact. An important debate centers on the relative efficacy of conditional cash transfer (CCT) vs. unconditional cash transfer (UCT) programs. Akresh et al. found that CCTs and UCTs are generally equally effective, but that among marginal children (those who are initially not enrolled in school or are less likely to go to school) conditionality positively impacts educational outcomes.128 Similarly, a Cochrane systematic review by Baird et al. found that while differences between CCT and UCT programs overall are not significant, well-regulated conditional programs consistently lead to greater effects on school enrollment.20 Finally, in a major World Bank report, Fiszbein and Schady conclude that conditions should be applied to cash transfers when economically and politically appropriate: "In sum, when there is a strong rationale to redistribute, a CCT can be justified under two broad sets of conditions: first, when private investment in human capital among the poor is suboptimal from a social point of view and, second, when conditions are necessary for political economy reasons (that is, redistribution is politically feasible only when conditioned on good behavior)."121 Since both conditions likely apply in the Tunisian context, we recommend that an element of conditionality be added to PPAS, i.e., that benefits be based at a minimum on continued school enrollment and ideally on school attendance. Summary of program impact Interviews with program stakeholders indicated little or no expectations of a measurable impact of PPAS on outcomes. While analyses of household survey data generally support this expectation, there is some indication of positive program effects on households’ investment in education and potentially on children’s educational outcomes. In simple comparisons, beneficiary households indicated lower educational expenditures and poorer educational outcomes than non-beneficiary comparison households. This finding is consistent with the program’s focus on poorer and disadvantaged households, who face greater barriers to education and educational achievement. However, detailed econometric analyses indicate that, after controlling for households’ economic characteristics, attitudes toward child education, education of the head of household, geographic 80 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT variation, and other characteristics, beneficiary households actually spent more money on education for each child that is currently enrolled in school, and there were trends towards a positive effect of program benefits on educational outcomes. However, the effect was small, occurred only during the year in which the household first received benefits, and did not continue over time; instead there are indications that children in beneficiary households continue to fare worse than children in other households, with respect to educational expenditures, and educational outcomes. A variety of strategies, suggested by key informants, social workers and other successful transfer programs, hold potential to increase the impact of PPAS on educational outcomes of children. Benefit amounts that adequately reflect the priorities of the program, address household needs, and account for variation in the cost of education, geographically and over time, are a critical component of a successful program. While unconditional transfer programs have been shown to be effective, direct comparisons between conditional and unconditional programs point to a greater impact of conditional programs. Key informants and local social welfare workers shared such expectations of greater impact from a program that requires regular re-certification of benefits and is conditional on school attendance, in addition to school enrollment. 11. Recommendations On the basis of this evaluation we developed several recommendations for the strengthening of the program. While key informants identified multiple objectives for the program, the recommendations are based on the assumption that the primary purpose of the program is to improve educational outcomes among children in poor households and to reduce rates of drop-out. The recommendations are divided into immediate recommendations, short-term recommendations, and medium-term recommendations. The recommendations are described in detail below and summarized in Tables 13-15. Immediate recommendations 1) Regularly re-certify program eligibility – There is evidence of substantial inclusion error, even if very loose eligibility criteria are applied. At a minimum, the existence in the household of at least one child of schooleligible age should be confirmed. Benefit amounts should be adjusted accordingly if no children are documented, or if benefits are paid for more than the number of eligible children in the household. – While beneficiary households, on average, tend to be poorer than non-beneficiary households, some households do not appear to qualify as poor. However, very few households were ever required to re-certify their eligibility for PNAFN. Thus, we recommend a periodic re-evaluation of households’ economic eligibility. Given the cost of household visits, economic re-certification is recommended only every 2-5 years. – Appropriate resources (staff, transport) and clear guidelines must be available to local MAS offices to conduct the regular re-certification of households’ eligibility. 81 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 2) Make program benefits conditional – Given the program’s focus on educational outcomes we recommend that the benefit be made conditional on school enrollment, and that enrollment be re-certified annually. – Clear guidelines should be established and circulated describing when and how benefits are to be discontinued if the conditions or eligibility are no longer met. Potential repercussions for local social welfare office workers, teachers, and others involved in the eligibility determination and enforcement must be considered and accounted for in the development of these guidelines. 3) Drop the limit of 3 children per household – No clear reason was identified for limiting the education benefit to 3 children per household. If children can be uniquely identified and a child’s belonging to a specific household can be established by means of birth certificates or similar documentation, we recommend dropping the limit. The additional cost of the program’s expansion to all eligible children in the household is estimated to be significantly smaller than the current inclusion error, as long as eligibility is limited to children who were ever enrolled in school. The estimated cost will be even lower if other conditions (e.g., poverty, current school enrollment, and/or school attendance) are added and enforced. More than two-thirds of respondents to the local office survey supported dropping the limit, whereas 29% supported the limit. Table 13. Immediate recommendations RECOMMENDATION DESCRIPTION 1) Regularly re-certify program eligibility At the minimum, the existence in the household of at least one child of school-eligible age should be confirmed. Benefit amounts should be adjusted if no children are documented, or if benefits are paid for more than the number of eligible children in the household. Re-certification of households’ economic eligibility is recommended only once every 2-5 years. Appropriate resources (staff, transport) must be available to local MAS offices to conduct the regular re-certification of households’ eligibility. 2) Make program benefits conditional We recommend that the benefit be made conditional on school enrollment, and that enrollment be re-certified annually. Clear guidelines and procedures should be established that determine when and how benefits are to be discontinued if the conditions or eligibility are no longer met. 3) Drop the limit of 3 children per household No clear reason was identified for limiting the education benefit to 3 children per household. 82 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Short-term recommendations 1) Clarify the program’s objectives: Stakeholders and decision makers – At present the program has no clear objectives, and its present scale and scope are unlikely to result in measurable improvements in national education indicators. The program appears to simultaneously focus on poverty reduction and schooling, but as a result does not address either optimally. We recommend that SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant/realistic, and time-bound) objectives be identified, and if needed periodically revised, in order to guide the program’s design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. – Resources, program eligibility criteria, program implementation, and the program’s information system should be clearly matched to the program’s objectives. In the context of limited resource availability, a narrower focus on a specific objective (e.g., reducing drop-out from primary school) is more likely to result in measureable, programattributable outcomes improvements than the current program’s broad focus across the entire education spectrum. 2) Clarify the program’s objectives: Beneficiary households – The lack of clear program objectives is also evident among beneficiaries, who are not clear as to whether the program principally targets education vs. poverty. For the program to have meaningful effects on children’s schooling it is critical that beneficiary households recognize the program’s intent, and conditionality, if applicable. We recommend the sensitization of beneficiary families to the objectives of the program. Table 14. Short-term recommendations RECOMMENDATION DESCRIPTION 1) Clarify the program’s objectives: Stakeholders and decision makers We recommend that SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant/realistic, and time-bound) objectives be identified, and if needed periodically revised, in order to guide the program’s design, implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. 2) Clarify the program’s objectives: Beneficiary households We recommend the sensitization of beneficiary families to the objectives of the program. 83 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Medium-term recommendations 1) Make program benefits conditional on school attendance – Poor school performance, measured in this evaluation by grade repetition, is a critical precursor to drop-out. Thus, the success of a program to improve educational outcomes hinges on children attending school. We therefore recommend that program benefits be conditional on school attendance. – In household surveys, almost half of all beneficiary households had no contact with school officials in the past year. By encouraging parental involvement in schooling the program has an opportunity to positively impact children’s school performance. 2) Develop an information system – MAS administrative data can be used to track the distribution of benefit amounts to beneficiary households. However, at present, it is not possible to link benefits to individual children, or to track eligibility criteria or program outcomes as part of an integrated information system. We recommend that a system be developed that tracks program eligibility, enrollment in school, and children’s educational outcomes. 3) Ensure cooperation and information sharing between MAS and schools – MAS infrastructure is well-suited for determining households’ economic needs and households’ continued eligibility for PNAFN. However, MAS infrastructure is not wellsuited for determining children’s education needs and outcomes, to verify the continued enrollment of children in school, or to preemptively identify children at risk of drop-out. Local MAS offices, at present, do not have the resources to implement a regular recertification of school enrollment or attendance. Schools are better suited to implement these tasks. We therefore recommend a close collaboration between MAS and MOE (at the national level) and between the local social welfare offices and schools (at the local level), as well as the implementation of a shared information system. 4) Understand geographic variation – Our analyses indicate great geographic variation in children’s educational outcomes, as well as program implementation, program coverage, and rates of program growth. We recommend the regular analysis of all available data (administrative and census data, sample survey data, and education data) to identify sources of geographic variation. – It is critical to identify plausible and implausible variation, and to differentiate variation in need from variation in the implementation of the program (e.g., eligibility determination, enforcement of eligibility) in different areas. – The Ministry of Education has data that allow for the identification of schools and areas with particularly high rates of grade repetition and drop-out. A close cooperation between MAS and MOE will allow for the targeting of education benefits toward areas and populations with the greatest need. 84 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT 5) Reconsider the structure of the benefit – The analysis suggests great variation in the characteristics of household who are currently benefiting from the program, and large variation in beneficiary households’ resources and needs. We recommend re-evaluating benefit levels and the current onesize-fits-all approach of the program. – Households’ educational expenses vary with a number of characteristics, including households’ economic status, the number of children in school, primary vs. secondary schooling, rural vs. urban residence, and distance to school. We therefore recommend considering a « benefit scale « that allows for geographic variation in the benefit amount, and variation with household needs and/or other characteristics. The advantages of varying benefit amounts have to be weighed against the associated logistical and administrative cost. – Welfare theory suggests that the household will optimally allocate additional resources, which may or may not involve additional investment in children’s education. If the program’s goal is to increase household investment in education, we recommend exploration of vouchers or in-kind options to meet specific schooling-related needs of children, such as transport, meals, books, or supplies. 6) Re-evaluate the relationship of PPAS to other programs – We recommend an optimization of the program’s relationship with PNAFN and other programs. With its focus on the elderly, disabled, and single parent households, PNAFN targets several characteristics that are associated with an increased risk of school dropout. However, an exclusive focus on PNAFN households represents an important source of exclusion error if the goal is to broadly improve school enrollment and to reduce drop-out. Comparisons of the economic status of beneficiary households with neighboring households suggest that many non-PNAFN households are as poor as, or even poorer than, PNAFN households. – We also recommend integration, or at least coordination, of PPAS with BTS and other education support programs in order optimize targeting, and to maximize the programs’ impact on children’s educational outcomes. The extent to which PPAS and BTS function as substitutes or complements is currently not clear. 7) Learn from other cash transfer programs (see Appendix 5) – Comparisons with other transfer programs suggest the possibility of a proxy means test to determine eligibility. While this may require additional fieldwork, its results could be integrated within the new government data sharing system and used for other social programs. A thorough verified proxy means test may provide a more reliable measure of households’ economic status than the existing unverified means test used for PNAFN. This strategy could ultimately allow for the expansion of PPAS beyond PNAFN. An effective proxy means test also holds potential to reduce some of the paperwork and beneficiary burden currently required for applications and re-certifications. 85 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT – Changes to the payment structure could be modeled on programs in Singapore, Jamaica, Turkey, Colombia, Mexico, or Uruguay, which specify different benefit levels based on school level and other considerations. Only five programs in Appendix 5 place a limit on the number of children covered per household; consideration might be given to removing the three-child limit to reach out to larger (and often poorer) families. – Several other ideas to consider in Tunisia emerged from the sample of existing programs, such as school attendance thresholds if this is to be added as a program condition. One particular condition that could benefit PPAS comes from Panama’s Red de Oportunidades program. This transfer requires a parent from the beneficiary household to attend parent-teacher conferences, thus further connecting the cash transfer to their child’s education 13. In Honduras and Nicaragua, conditional payments have been made directly from the government to teachers, schools, or parent associations to directly reinforce educational improvements 54,78. Looking even deeper into the sample of programs, one could even learn more about existing re-certification timelines and strategies to keep beneficiary information up-to-date. 8) Consider the study in the context of other studies and data on drop-out – The findings in this report should be considered complementary to other studies and data on drop-out. For example, this study shares some recommendations with the 2014 OOSCI report, e.g., the improved communication among stakeholders, and attention to regional variation in needs, such as transportation in rural areas and school meals in disadvantaged areas. While the OOSCI study focused primarily on the education system, this evaluation focused on the needs of households. A successful program for improving school enrollment, attendance, performance, and retention will need to take into consideration both structural components (e.g., quality of schooling) and household needs and decision making. – OOSCI’s recommendation for decentralized education policies should be seen in the context of existing variation in the implementation of the PPAS program. Efforts should be made to ensure that decentralized education policies complement, but do not conflict with, national education goals and objectives. This evaluation highlights the need for appropriate oversight of the decentralized implementation of educationfocused programs. – We recommend that the optimal re-design of PPAS, including its benefit structure, eligibility determination, and re-certification be identified in one or more pilot tests, to avoid the full-scale implementation of a potentially ineffective or sub-optimal national program that requires multiple iterative revisions. 86 Evaluation of Tunisia’s Education Benefit Program of PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Table 15. Medium-term recommendations RECOMMENDATION DESCRIPTION 1) Make program benefits conditional on school attendance We recommend that program benefits be conditional on school attendance, and that the program encourage at least annual contact of parents or primary guardians with the school. 2) Develop an information system We recommend that a system be developed that tracks program eligibility, enrollment in school, and children’s educational outcomes. 3) Ensure cooperation and information sharing between MAS and schools We recommend a close collaboration between MAS and MOE (at the national level) and between the local social welfare offices and schools (at the local level), as well as the implementation of a shared information system. 4) Understand geographic variation We recommend the regular analysis of all available data to understand geographic variation in the implementation of the program, program coverage and educational outcomes, and to allow for the targeting of the education benefit program toward areas and populations with the greatest need 5) Reconsider the structure of the benefit We recommend re-evaluating benefit levels and the current onesize-fits-all approach of the program. We recommend considering a “benefit scale” that allows for geographic variation in the benefit amount, and variation with household needs and/or other characteristics. If the program’s goal is to increase household investment in education, we recommend exploration of vouchers or in-kind options to meet specific schooling-related needs of children. We recommend that the optimal re-design of the program be identified in one or more pilot tests. 6) Re-evaluate the relationship of PPAS to other programs We recommend re-evaluation of the program’s exclusive focus on PNAFN households, and integration, or at least coordination, of PPAS with other education support programs. 7) Learn from other cash transfer programs We recommend a careful review of approaches taken by other countries to evaluate what options could feasibly be implemented or adapted to the Tunisian context 8) Consider the study in the context of other studies and data on drop-out We recommend this evaluation be considered alongside other recent data on drop-out such as the MICS and the OOSCI report. 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Handa S, Park M, Osei Darko R, Osei-Akoto I, Davis B, Daidone S. Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty Program Impact Evaluation. University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill; February 2014. Hatta ZA, Sarkawi DT. The Poverty Situation in Indonesia: Challenges and Progress of the Marginalized Group. Asian Social Work & Policy Review. 2011;5(2):92-106. Hermosillo R, Gonzalez A, Ruesga C. Process Evaluation of the Community Based Conditional Cash Transfer Pilot Programme in Tanzania.: GESOC, AGENCIA PARA EL DESARROLLO, A.C.; October 30 2011. Hossain N. School Exclusion as Social Exclusion: the Practices and Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Programme for the Poor in Bangladesh. The Journal of Development Studies. Aug 2010 2010;46(7):1264-1282. Innerarity F, Risden CR. Social Safety Net Reform in Jamaica Experience of the Programme of Advancement through Health and Education (PATH). Social and Economic Studies. 2010;59(1-2):181-209. Jeni V. Proteção social no Brasil: o que mudou na assistência social após a Constituição de 1988. (Portuguese). Social protection in Brazil: what has changed in social assistance after the 1988 Constitution. (English). 2009;14(3):731-741. Krishnan A, Amarchand R, Byass P, Pandav C, Ng N. "No one says 'No' to money" - a mixed methods approach for evaluating conditional cash transfer schemes to improve girl children's status in Haryana, India. Int J Equity Health. 2014;13(1):11. Lalive R, Cattaneo MA. SOCIAL INTERACTIONS AND SCHOOLING DECISIONS. Review of Economics and Statistics. Aug 2009;91(3):457-477. Lavigne M. Social protection systems in Latin America and the Caribbean: Paraguay. 2012:38. Levy D, Ohls J. Evaluation of Jamaica's PATH conditional cash transfer programme. Journal of Development Effectiveness. 2010;2(4):421-441. Lora AC. Evaluating the impacts of Bolsa Escola programs on student performance in Brazil 2010. Lund F. 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Appendix Appendix 1: TOR Appendix 2: Enquête avec parties prenantes Appendix 3: Enquête Niveau Local Appendix 4: Enquête beneficiaires et non-beneficiaires Appendix 5: Focused literature review of education-focused cash transfer programs 95 Appendix 1: TOR RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised UNITED NATIONS CHILDREN’S FUND (UNICEF) Wishes to invite you to submit a proposal for Une évaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie. Sealed Proposals should be delivered/placed in the Bid Box (located in the Reception area of the UNICEF office). Proposals forwarded by mail or courier services must contain written instructions on the external envelope that allows the receiving mail agents to place the envelope in the Bid Box. The address for Proposals is: UNICEF Tunisia 58 Avenue Tahar Ben Achour 1082, Mutuelleville Tunis – Tunisie Ne pas Ouvrir Attention: Mr Le Chargé des Opérations IMPORTANT – ESSENTIAL INFORMATION The reference “RFPS-TUN-2012-1101” Subject: ”Evaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie.” must be written/typed on the envelopes containing the Technical and on the envelope containing the Financial Proposals, as well as on the outer packaging containing both envelopes. Proposals must be submitted in one copy in a securely sealed envelope in accordance with the instructions to Institutions/Contractors attached to the RFP. The Proposal MUST be received at the above address by latest 15:00 p.m. Tunis local Time on Tuesday 18th March 2013 and will be opened on the same day. IMPORTANT: Proposals will be invalidated if received after the stipulated date and time or if mailed to different address or sent by e-mail, even if received before the stipulated deadline. Requests for any additional information should be directed in writing by email to Mehdi Molla, [email protected] Georges Gonzales, [email protected] Due to the nature of this Request for Proposal for Services, there will be no public opening of proposals. It is important that you read all of the provisions of the Request for Proposal for Services, to ensure that you understand UNICEF’s requirements and can submit a proposal in compliance with them. Note that failure to provide compliant proposals may result in invalidation of your proposal. Page 1 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised THIS REQUEST FOR PROPOSAL FOR SERVICES HAS BEEN: PREPARED BY: Date Samir Bouzekri (To be contacted for additional information) Email: [email protected] APPROVED BY Date Georges Gonzales Deputy Representative Page 2 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised INDEX INDEX ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 PROPOSAL FORM ................................................................................................................................................................... 4 1. PROCEDURES AND RULES ............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.10 1.11 1.12 1.13 1.14 2. 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3. ORGANIZATIONAL BACKGROUND; SPECIFIC PROJECT SITUATION ................................................................................... 5 PURPOSE OF THE RFPS ..................................................................................................................................................... 5 WORK ASSIGNMENTS AND TERM OF REFERENCE ............................................................................................................. 5 FORECAST SCHEDULE ....................................................................................................................................................... 5 RFPS RESPONSE FORMAT ................................................................................................................................................. 6 PROPOSER RESPONSE ...................................................................................................................................................... 6 CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION ......................................................................................................................................... 7 PROPOSAL OPENING ........................................................................................................................................................ 7 RIGHTS OF UNICEF............................................................................................................................................................ 8 PROPERTY OF UNICEF ....................................................................................................................................................... 8 VALIDITY ........................................................................................................................................................................... 8 GENERAL CONTRACTUAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS ........................................................................................................ 9 FULL RIGHT TO USE........................................................................................................................................................... 9 PAYMENT TERMS ............................................................................................................................................................. 9 INSTRUCTIONS TO PROPOSERS ....................................................................................................................................... 9 MARKING AND RETURNING PROPOSALS ........................................................................................................................ 9 TIME FOR RECEIVING PROPOSALS .................................................................................................................................... 9 WITHDRAWAL ................................................................................................................................................................ 10 CURRENCY OF PROPOSALS ............................................................................................................................................. 10 ERROR IN PROPOSALS .................................................................................................................................................... 10 REQUEST FOR INFORMATION ........................................................................................................................................ 10 PROPOSAL EVALUATION CRITERIA .............................................................................................................................. 10 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 EVALUATION PROCESS ................................................................................................................................................... 10 MANDATORY REQUIREMENTS ....................................................................................................................................... 11 OVERALL EVALUATION GRID .......................................................................................................................................... 11 TECHNICAL EVALUATION ............................................................................................................................................... 11 TECHNICAL PASS CRITERIA ............................................................................................................................................. 11 FINANCIAL EVALUATION ................................................................................................................................................ 11 VERIFICATION PROCESS ................................................................................................................................................. 12 UNETHICAL BEHAVIOUR ................................................................................................................................................. 12 CORRUPT AND FRAUDULENT PRACTICES ....................................................................................................................... 12 Page 3 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised PROPOSAL FORM THIS PAGE/PROPOSAL FORM must be completed, signed and returned to UNICEF. Proposal must be made in accordance with the instructions contained in this Request for Proposal for Services. TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF CONTRACT Any Contract resulting from this Request for Proposal for Services shall incorporate (a) relevant provisions of the UNICEF Generic General Terms and Conditions for Institutional Contracts for Services; and (b) any Specific Terms and Conditions detailed in this Request for Proposal for Services. INFORMATION The Undersigned, having read and understood RFPS-TUNA-2012-1101, and having accepted the terms and conditions set out in this Request for Proposal for Services, hereby offers to supply the services specified in the Appendices to this Request for Proposal for Services at the fee or fees quoted, in accordance with any specifications stated and subject to the Terms and Conditions set out or specified in this Request for Proposals for Services. Signature: _____________________________________ Date: _____________________________________ Name & Title: _____________________________________ Company: _____________________________________ Postal Address: _____________________________________ Tel. No.: _____________________________________ E-mail: _____________________________________ Validity of Offer _____________________________________ Currency of Offer: _____________________________________ (US dollars) No Price Proposal value details are to be included within this form. Please indicate, after having read UNICEF Payment Terms, which of the following Payment Terms are offered by you: 10 Days, 3.0%___ 15 Day, 2.5%__ 20 Days, 2.0%___ 30 Days, Net__Other Discounts: ____ Page 4 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 1. PROCEDURES AND RULES 1.1 ORGANIZATIONAL BACKGROUND; SPECIFIC PROJECT SITUATION UNICEF is the agency of the United Nations mandated to advocate for the protection of children’s rights, to help meet their basic needs and to expand their opportunities to reach their full potential. Guided by the Convention on the Rights of the Child UNICEF strives to establish children’s rights as international standards of behaviour towards children. UNICEF’s role is to mobilise political will and material resources to help countries ensure a “first call for children”. UNICEF is committed to ensuring special protection for the most disadvantaged children. UNICEF carries out its work through its headquarters in New York, eight regional offices and 125 country offices word-wide. UNICEF also has a research centre in Florence, a supply operation based in Copenhagen and offices in Tokyo and Brussels. UNICEF’s thirty-seven national committees in industrialised countries raise funds and spread awareness about the organisation’s mission. 1.2 PURPOSE OF THE RFPS The purpose of this Request for Proposal for Services (this “RFPS”) is to solicit proposals for Une évaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie. 1.3 WORK ASSIGNMENTS and TERM OF REFERENCE The work assignment and the Term of Reference is part of this RFP and included in the Annexe2 1.4 FORECAST SCHEDULE The schedule of the contractual process is as follows: A. RFP opened for bids March 18, 2013 B. Technical and Cost proposals received not later than (noon) 15:00 p.m, at UNICEF Tunis Country Office, Tunis, Tunisia. March 18, 2013 C. Opening of Bids received - Technical March 19, 2013 D. Opening of Bids received - Financial March 19, 2013 E. Internal review and selection process completed March 22, 2013 F. Award of contract March 22, 2013 G. Proposed commencement date April 01, 2013 H. Proposed completion date February 28, 2014 It is understood that UNICEF Tunis Country office reserve the right to alter this schedule according to its own needs. Page 5 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 1.5 RFPS RESPONSE FORMAT The contractors will be asked to make the bid in two parts: one will be the Technical proposal and the other will be the Financial/budget proposal. All proposals (Technical and Financial) must be prepared in English or French to ensure that the UNICEF Tunis Country office team can make fair assessment of the bidder’s ability to successfully carry out the contract. The reference “RFPS-TUN-2012-1101” Subject: ”Evaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie” must be written/typed on the envelopes containing the Technical and on the envelope containing the Financial Proposals, as well as on the outer packaging containing both envelopes. Any information that the Bidder considers proprietary should be clearly marked “proprietary”, next to the relevant part of the text. UNICEF Tunisia will treat such information accordingly. The contractors must submit the Technical Proposal and the Financial Proposal for evaluation purposes in one sealed envelope. Costs shall not appear in any part of the Technical Proposal. The contractors must provide sufficient information in the proposals to address each area of the evaluation criteria (see Annex 1), to ensure that the evaluation team can make a fair assessment of the consultancy firm based only on its proposals. The contractor should deliver one copy of the Technical and financial Proposals by a sealed envelope to the Operation Officer, at UNICEF, 58 avenue Taher Ben Achour, 1082 Mutuelleville – Tunis, Tunisie no later than 15.00 p.m. on the designated date, March 18, 2013. 1.6 PROPOSER RESPONSE A. Formal submission requirements The formal submission requirements as outlined in this RFPS must be followed, e.g. regarding form and timing of submission. B. Proposal Form The completed and signed Proposal Form must be submitted together with the Proposal to UNICEF Tunis Office, Bid Section at the address stated on the front page of this RFPS. C. Mandatory criteria All mandatory (i.e. “must”/”have to”/”shall”/”will”) criteria mentioned throughout this RFPS have to be addressed and met in the Proposal. D. Technical Proposal The Technical Proposal should address all aspects and criteria outlined in this Request for Proposal, especially in The Terms of Reference detailed in Annex 1 of this Request for Proposal. UNICEF welcomes new ideas and innovative approaches. Technical Proposals must be complete and provide all relevant support documentation to enable the RFP Evaluation Team to adequately assess and evaluate the Proposal At a minimum, the Technical Proposal must include: Page 6 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised Completed profile form provided in Annex 4 Physical Location of offices with telephone, fax and e‐mail address. Description of the services offered. Information on the expertise and capabilities of the organization submitting the proposal. Number of employees and organizational chart Please provide in a tabular form the number of teams you will form for this contract. Use a Gantt chart for each team to indicate the projected timeframe of, in what time you intend to complete the works Expertise and experience of proposed personnel CVs of key personnel to be involved in implementation of the Contract. List of current clients with particular emphasis on international and humanitarian organizations. Compliance with UNICEF General Terms and Conditions (signed Proposal Form, page 4 of RFP.) No price information shall be contained in the technical proposal. E. Fee Proposal The contractor’s financial proposal shall be prepared using the forms provided in Annex 2. It shall list all prices associated with the assignment, including remuneration for Personnel and travel expenses. All activities and items described in the Technical Proposal shall be assumed to be included in the price offered in the Financial Proposal. 1.7 CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION Any Information which the Proposer considers proprietary should be clearly marked, by including the word “Proprietary” in the left hand margin next to the relevant part of the text. The UNICEF evaluation team will treat such information accordingly. 1.8 PROPOSAL OPENING There will not be a public opening of the Technical Proposal. The Technical Proposals will be opened by a internal UNICEF Bidding Committee at the stipulated date and time mentioned above. Acknowledgments of Proposals from participating Institutions/Contractors will be communicated in writing by 19 March 2013. All Proposals will then be reviewed by a Technical Evaluation Panel. Following successful conclusion of the Technical Proposal, the Financial Proposals of Institutions/Contractors that have obtained the minimum qualifying points for their Technical Proposals will be invited to attend the public opening of the Financial Proposals currently planned for 10:00 a.m. on 19 March 2013. Qualifying institutions/Contractors may attend this public opening or send an authorized representative with appropriate identification to attend the public opening of the Financial Proposal. The Financial Proposals will be combined with the evaluation results of the Technical Proposal for a final adjudication to identify the Best and Final Offer (BAFO) no later than Thursday, 21 March 2013. Page 7 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 1.9 RIGHTS OF UNICEF UNICEF reserves the right to accept any Proposal, in whole or in part; or, to reject any or all Proposals. UNICEF reserves the right to invalidate any Proposal received from a Proposer which, in the opinion of UNICEF, has previously failed to perform satisfactorily or properly or to complete a contract on time, or any Proposal received from a Proposer which, in the opinion of UNICEF, is not in a position to perform the contract to be awarded as a result of this procurement action. UNICEF shall not be held responsible for any cost incurred by any Proposer in connection with this RFPS. The Proposer agrees to be bound by the decision of UNICEF as to whether its Proposal meets the requirements stated in this RFPS. Without limiting the generality of the rights set out above, UNICEF expressly reserves the right to, and by submitting its Proposal the Proposer expressly accepts UNICEF’s right to: contact any or all references supplied by the Proposer(s); request additional supporting or supplementary data (from the Proposer(s)); arrange interviews with any, some, or all of the Proposer(s), individually or collectively; reject any or all Proposals; accept any Proposal in whole or in part; negotiate with the Proposer or Proposers which has or have, as the case may be, attained the best rating/ranking in the evaluation of Proposals; award contracts to such number of Proposers as, in UNICEF’s opinion, is required to achieve the overall objectives of this RFPS. By submitting a Proposal, the Proposer agrees to accept the decision of UNICEF as to whether the Proposal meets the requirements stated in this RFPS. 1.10 PROPERTY OF UNICEF This RFPS, along with any responses thereto, shall be considered the property of UNICEF and the Proposals will not be returned to the Proposers. 1.11 VALIDITY Proposals should be valid for a period of not less than 90 days after proposal opening, unless otherwise specified in the Specific Terms and Conditions. Proposers are requested to indicate the validity period of their proposal, as UNICEF may issue contracts against the most responsive evaluated proposal if requests for identical services are received from our offices/divisions during the proposal validity period. UNICEF may also request the validity period to be extended. Page 8 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 1.12 GENERAL CONTRACTUAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS The UNICEF Generic General Terms and Conditions for Institutional Contracts for Services are attached [Annex 2]. The relevant provisions of these Generic General Terms and Conditions, together with any designated Special Terms and Conditions [Annex 2, will form part of any contract resulting from this RFPS. 1.13 FULL RIGHT TO USE The Proposer warrants that it has not and shall not enter into any agreement or arrangement that restrains or restricts UNICEF’s or any implementing partner’s rights to use, dispose of or, otherwise, deal with any of the goods that are the subject of this RFPS. 1.14 PAYMENT TERMS Payment will be made only upon UNICEF’s acceptance of the work performed in accordance with the contractual milestones. The terms of payment are payment of the uncontested part of any invoice “Net 30 days”, after receipt of invoice and proof of delivery. Payment will be effected by bank transfer in a local currency. Proposers may offer early payment discounts, i.e. payment within a specified period of time faster than UNICEF’s standard payment term of Net 30 days. 2. INSTRUCTIONS TO PROPOSERS 2.1 MARKING AND RETURNING PROPOSALS Proposals must be sent by 15.00 p.m [Tunis] time Date: [18.03.2013] as indicated on Page 1 of this RFPS. “RFPSTUN-2012-1101” : Subject: ”Evaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie” must be indicated on the front page of the Proposal. Proposers should note that Proposals sent by e-mail will be INVALIDATED. 2.2 TIME FOR RECEIVING PROPOSALS Proposals received prior to the stated closing time and date will be secured by Bid Section until the specified deadline for submission of Proposals, at which time the Officer of the Bid Section will open the Proposals and no Proposal received thereafter will be considered. UNICEF will accept no responsibility for the premature opening of a Proposal not properly addressed or identified. Modification of Proposals already submitted will be considered if received BY courier prior to the closing time and date. All modifications to and possible withdrawals of Proposals must be sent to UNICEF Tunisia 58 Avenue Tahar Ben Achour 1082, Mutuelleville Tunis – Tunisie Ne pas Ouvrir Attention: Mr Le Chargé des Opérations Page 9 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 2.3 WITHDRAWAL Proposals may be withdrawn at any time during the open period of the RFPS, but withdrawal of final submitted Proposals is not possible after the stated closing time of the RFPS. Negligence on the part of the Proposer confers no right for the withdrawal of the Proposal after it has been opened. 2.4 CURRENCY OF PROPOSALS Fee proposals must be stated in [US Dollars]. 2.5 ERROR IN PROPOSALS Proposers are expected to examine all schedules and all instructions pertaining to the work or Proposal. Failure to do so will be at the Proposer’s own risk. 2.6 REQUEST FOR INFORMATION All requests for formal clarification or queries on this RFPS must be submitted in writing to: Mehdi Moalla, [email protected] Georges Gonzales, [email protected] Only written inquiries will be entertained. Please make sure that the e-mail mentions the RFPS reference number. Please be informed that if the question is deemed of common interest to all possible Proposers, the answers will be shared with all invitees. 3. PROPOSAL EVALUATION CRITERIA 3.1 EVALUATION PROCESS The established evaluation process and steps for finalising this procurement are: (a) RFPS Mandatory Requirements. UNICEF will only evaluate Proposals complying with the four mandatory requirements set out in section 3.2 below. (b) Proposal Technical evaluation. Proposals passing the minimum technical pass score will continue into the Commercial evaluation. (c) Proposal Financial evaluation. The lowest fee Proposal will be awarded the full score assigned to the commercial proposal i.e. 30 points. (d) Recommendation. The recommendation for award of contract will be based on best combination of technical and price score. (e) Final award and contracts. Based on verified nominations, contracts negotiations will be initiated with one or more successful Proposer(s). The UNICEF evaluation team will be composed of technical staff from UNICEF. The evaluation team will first evaluate each Proposal for compliance with the requirements of this RFPS. Proposals deemed not to meet all of the mandatory requirements will be considered non-compliant and rejected at this stage without further consideration. Failure to comply with any of the terms and conditions contained in this RFPS, including provision of all required information, may result in a Proposal being disqualified from further consideration. Page 10 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 3.2 MANDATORY REQUIREMENTS A Proposal MUST meet the following requirements. Documents to support these requirements must be submitted with the Proposal. Legal Status The Contractor shall attach a copy of its letter of incorporation, or other such document, indicating its legal status, as well as any other document showing that it intends to associate, or it has associated with, the other associates who are submitting a joint proposal. In case the Consultant is a joint venture, letters of incorporation, or other such documents, shall be attached for all associates of the joint venture. Financial Criteria The Contractor shall provide evidence showing that its liquid assets and access to credit facilities are adequate for this RFPS. 3.3 OVERALL EVALUATION GRID Each Proposal will be evaluated against a weight allocation of [70%] for the technical proposals and [30%] for the fee proposal. The total maximum obtainable points is 100. Technical Proposal Fee Proposal [70] points [30] points The UNICEF evaluation team will select the Proposal which is of high quality, clear and meets the stated requirements and offers the best combination of technical and price score. 3.4 TECHNICAL EVALUATION The Technical evaluation is part of this RFP and included in the Annexe3 3.5 TECHNICAL PASS CRITERIA The minimum technical score required to pass is 80 points 3.6 FINANCIAL EVALUATION The maximum number of points will be allotted to the lowest price proposal that is opened and compared among those invited firms/institutions that obtain the threshold points in the evaluation of the technical component. All other price proposals will receive points in inverse proportion to the lowest price; e.g.: Max. score for price proposal * Price of lowest priced proposal Score for price proposal X = Price of proposal X All prices/rates quoted must be exclusive of all taxes as UNICEF is a tax-exempt organization. At this point, the most favorable proposals will be selected for short-listing. The proposers on the short list may be given the opportunity to give UNICEF an oral presentation in order to be asked detailed questions for clarification of their proposals Page 11 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 - Revised 3.7 VERIFICATION PROCESS It is expected that during the evaluation, UNICEF will be requesting clarifications from Proposers. UNICEF will not divulge nor discuss the Proposals and merits except with the Proposer who made the Proposal. To ensure fairness towards all Proposers, the established technical evaluation criteria will be the basis for the evaluation; however, it is envisioned that the final evaluation may contain conclusions not only deriving from the method grid. 3.8 UNETHICAL BEHAVIOUR UNICEF strictly enforces a policy of zero tolerance concerning unethical, unprofessional or fraudulent acts of UNICEF suppliers / contractors. Accordingly, any registered company that is found to have undertaken unethical, unprofessional or fraudulent activities will be suspended or forbidden from continuing business relations with UNICEF. 3.9 CORRUPT AND FRAUDULENT PRACTICES UNICEF requires that all suppliers / contractors associated with this Institutional/Corporate Contract observe the highest standard of ethics during procurement and execution of the work. In pursuance of this policy UNICEF (a) Defines for the purpose of this provision the terms set forth as follows: (i) 'corrupt practice' means the offering, giving, receiving or soliciting of anything of value to influence the action of a public official in the procurement process or in the execution of a contract, and (ii) 'fraudulent practice' means a misrepresentation of facts in order to influence a procurement process or the execution of a contract to the detriment of the client, and includes collusive practice among proposers (prior to or after bid submission) designed to establish bid prices at artificial non-competitive levels and to deprive the client of the benefits of free and open competition; (b) Will reject a proposal for award if it determines that the selected supplier / contractor have engaged in any corrupt or fraudulent practices in competing for the contract in question; (c) Will declare a supplier / contractor ineligible, either indefinitely or for a stated period of time, to be awarded a UNICEF-financed contract if at any time it determines that it has engaged in any corrupt or fraudulent practices in competing for, or in executing a UNICEF-financed contract. Page 12 of 12 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 STATEMENT OF WORK AND TERM OF REFERENCE Une évaluation du programme d’allocations scolaires en Tunisie. I. Contexte et justification Une étude menée par le Ministère de l’éducation sur une cohorte de 70.000 élèves a mis en exergue l’impact déterminant du faible statut socioéconomique et du faible niveau de scolarité des parents sur le phénomène d’abandon scolaire d’où l’importance des allocations monétaires pour alléger la privation de revenu des ménages pauvres et rompre la transmission intergénérationnelle de la pauvreté. La définition de la pauvreté des enfants qui sera retenue sera celle fixée par l’UNICEF pour qui la pauvreté des enfants est constituée par : « les enfants qui vivent dans la pauvreté [sont ceux qui] sont victimes de privation de ressources matérielles, spirituelles et affectives nécessaires à la survie, au développement et à la réussite, ce qui les laisse dans l’incapacité de jouir de leurs droits et d’atteindre pleinement leur potentiel ou même de participer dans la société en tant qu’individu à part entière » (UNICEF, 2005). Parmi les privations multiples auxquelles sont soumis les enfants, la privation d’une éducation de qualité est parmi les plus importantes. La politique sociale adoptée par la Tunisie n’a pas réussi durant les deux dernières décennies à réduire de manière suffisante la pauvreté, l’exclusion sociale et l’ampleur des inégalités. Un besoin urgent se manifeste pour concevoir une nouvelle politique sociale plus efficace dans la réduction de la pauvreté et des disparités interindividuelles, sociales et régionales. Parmi les axes proposés pour améliorer l’équité et l’efficacité de ces dispositifs, on souligne l’importance de l’évaluation des programmes actuels d’aide sociale et la révision des modalités de leurs fonctionnements. L’UNICEF de commun accord avec le Gouvernement s’est engagé dans le cadre du plan d’action en cours à appuyer le gouvernement dans l’évaluation et la révision du volet du programme de protection sociale en faveur des enfants. Cette action paraît de plus en plus importante pour vérifier la réussite des programmes mis en œuvre, et déterminer l’allocation la plus efficace des ressources publiques. II. Le programme d’allocations scolaires Outre le Programme National d’Aide aux Familles Nécessiteuses (PNAFN) initié en 1987 et qui couvre actuellement 235.000 familles, le Ministère des Affaires Sociales (MAS) a lancé depuis 2007 un dispositif d’aides destiné aux enfants scolarisés issus des familles nécessiteuses bénéficiaires du PNAFN qui consiste en des transferts monétaires mensuelles d’une valeur de 10 dinars par enfant scolarisé (dans la limite de 3 enfants par famille). Ce dispositif est venu s’ajouter à un programme d’aides déjà existant qui consiste à distribuer des fournitures scolaires aux élèves issus des familles nécessiteuses (bénéficiaires du PNAFN) et à revenus limités (bénéficiaires des cartes de soins à tarifs réduits essentiellement) à l’occasion de la rentrée RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 scolaire. Depuis 2011, cette aide prend la forme de transferts monétaires directs d’un montant de 30 dinars par enfant scolarisé (dans la limite de 3 enfants par famille) alloués à l’occasion de la rentrée scolaire. Pour l’année scolaire 2012-2013, 333.000 aides ont été distribuées aux familles pour une enveloppe globale de 10 millions de dinars. D’autres interventions sont également mises en place par d’autres structures ministérielles et nationales pour assister davantage les élèves nécessiteux telles que la campagne nationale de collecte de livres, le transport gratuit en milieu rural, les cantines scolaires… Les données issues de ce fichier qui caractérisent les profils socio-économiques des bénéficiaires sont confinés dans une base de données qui sera accessible pour la conduite de l’analyse. III. But de l’évaluation Le but ultime de cette consultation est d’évaluer les aspects d’incidence du programme d'allocations et d'aides financières aux ménages plus défavorisés, en complément des politiques et programmes éducatifs et autres programmes sociaux, sur la performance scolaire mais aussi de recommander des solutions efficaces en vue de renforcer ce programme, son système de collecte de données et de mettre en place un dispositif sur une plus grande période permettant d’examiner sur le long terme l’incidence des aides sociales ciblées sur l’investissement des familles bénéficiaires dans l’éducation de leurs enfants, en plus d'autres interventions. Cette analyse se fera en tenant compte de l'impact principal des politiques et programmes éducatifs, surtout ceux prévus dans les zones les plus défavorisées (tenant compte des disparités géographiques et plus des disparités socio-économiques) sur la performance scolaire. IV. Objectifs de l’évaluation Cette analyse fournira aux instances décisionnelles du gouvernement, aux acteurs du développement et au grand public des informations suffisantes pour: • Apprécier globalement et de manière indépendante les résultats du programme et formuler des recommandations pratiques pour le renforcement de l’efficacité de ce système d’aides scolaires, notamment pour les régions, milieux et familles les plus vulnérables ainsi que des indications en terme d’approches alternatives à adopter. • Produire des preuves empiriques qui aideront le gouvernement et autres parties prenantes non seulement dans la conception des politiques et des programmes visant à atteindre une plus grande équité, mais aussi des données requises pour un suivi et évaluation adéquats de tels programmes. • Analyser l’incident socio-économique du programme et déterminer les seuils et la variation des aides selon le groupe d’âge et le niveau d’enseignement, afin de pouvoir produire le meilleur impact sur la performance scolaire des enfants. A cet effet, l’analyse répondra aux critères et questions suivants : RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 A/ PERTINENCE 1/ Dans quelle mesure, cette aide vient-elle en complément ou de manière isolée dans le dispositif d’aide sociale du gouvernement à ces familles ? 2/ Dans quelle mesure le programme d’aide scolaire correspond-il à un besoin de la part des familles soutenues ? 3/ Quels sont les niveaux de transparence dans le choix des bénéficiaires, de la gouvernance du système, de la participation de certains acteurs à son établissement et à son fonctionnement, et de la décentralisation dans la prise de décision et dans quelles mesures ces facteurs jouent-ils dans le succès du programme d’allocations scolaires?4/ Le programme cible-t-il les familles réellement privées de leur droit à une éducation de qualité ? B/ INCIDENCE 5/ Dans quelle mesure contribuent-elles à aider les familles dans la scolarisation de leur enfants ? 6/ Est ce que les familles ciblées investissent significativement davantage dans l’éducation que les familles de même niveau social ne recevant pas d’aides dans la scolarité de leurs enfants ? 7/ Quelle est l’incidence des allocations sur la performance scolaire des enfants bénéficiaires ? 8/ Est-ce que le montant actuel des allocations scolaires permet d’assurer un impact significatif sur la performance scolaire ? IV. Tâches à mener Le consultant devra mener les tâches suivantes : • Description et analyse des mécanismes du programme d’allocations scolaires, et revue d’autres sources documentaires (études, évaluations, enquêtes, etc), en vue d’en ressortir les aspects à améliorer. • Développement d’une feuille de route technique présentant la méthodologie détaillée, itinéraire des travaux de terrain, et table des matières du rapport final. • Revue de données collectées dans le cadre du programme d’allocations scolaires et également des autres interventions en relation avec l’assistance des enfants scolarisés issus de familles nécessiteuses (cantine scolaire, transport gratuit,..)en vue d’en proposer une amélioration pour le suivi et l’évaluation future de son impact. RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 • Proposition de méthodologies appropriées et réalisation d’enquêtes de terrain, aussi bien qualitatives que quantitatives, afin de collecter les données requises pour répondre aux questions posées par cette évaluation. • Présentation, discussion et validation des résultats de cette étude lors d’un atelier organisé par le comité de suivi du projet (Ministères, UNICEF, autres intervenants). V. Méthodologie de l’étude Les méthodes et techniques d’analyse ainsi que le plan de rédaction seront présentées dans l’offre technique qui sera élaborée par le (s) consultant(s) impliqué(s). Ces éléments seront détaillés dans la feuille de route qui sera établie par le consultant sélectionné après le dépouillement de l’offre technique. La méthodologie de cette évaluation devra combiner des méthodes qualitatives et quantitatives à définir et détailler par le consultant dans son premier livrable, c’est-à-dire la feuille de route. Toutefois, le consultant devra prendre en compte les spécifications suivantes : Pour répondre aux questions liées à la pertinence du programme d’allocations scolaires, il sera nécessaire de faire une revue documentaire du programme (mécanismes, défis, gouvernance, transparence, etc) et complémenter celle-ci avec des consultations sous formes d’interviews avec le personnel du programme et les familles bénéficiaires (groupes de discussions ou interviews individuels). L’impact du programme pourrait être mesuré selon différentes méthodes que le consultant aura la charge de proposer. La revue des fichiers du PNAFN et d’autres sources de données permettra au consultant d’élaborer en détails la base du choix des techniques quasi-expérimentales les plus appropriées. Cette revue permettra aussi au consultant de faire des recommandations tangibles sur l’amélioration de la collecte des données pour un suivi et évaluation adéquats des programmes de protections sociales en Tunisie. Afin de renforcer l’analyse, les conclusions et les recommandations des différentes techniques empruntées lors de cette évaluation, il sera important de mener une enquête sur un échantillon représentatif du groupe d’élèves issus des familles bénéficiant des allocations scolaires et sur un échantillon comparatif n’en bénéficiant pas. Puisque certaines des techniques quantitatives et qualitatives requièrent des données (Baseline) relatives à la période d’avant 2011 (lorsque le programme d’allocations n’était pas sur place), le consultant devra reconstituer de telles données à partir du fichier PNAFN ou en posant des questions rétrospectives lors des enquêtes par échantillonnage mentionnées cidessus. VI. Sources de données potentielles. A titre indicatif, l’analyse d’incidence des différents programmes d’aides destinés aux familles pauvres et vulnérables ainsi que l’analyse de la qualité des acquis scolaires pourraient se baser en partie sur les données d’enquêtes disponibles auprès de l’institut national de statistique et du ministère de RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 l’éducation. Les enquêtes TIMSS fournissent des informations de qualité sur la distribution géographique des acquis scolaires et le lien entre les conditions de vie de l’enfant et ses performances scolaires. Par ailleurs, le module niveau de vie des ménages, administré parallèlement aux enquêtes quinquennales sur la consommation et le budget des ménages, pourrait être utilisé dans l’analyse d’incidence des aides scolaires et les programmes de transferts directs aux profits des familles pauvres. Ces micro-données permettent l’évaluation des erreurs d’inclusion et d’exclusion des enfants pauvres des programmes d’aides, étant données que la quasi-totalité des bénéficiaires actuels sont sélectionnées des familles bénéficiant des aides médicales gratuites (AMG 1 et AMG2). Cette même source de données permet d’effectuer des exercices de simulation des corrélations qui pourraient exister entre l’accès aux différentes aides directes et certains indicateurs de performance scolaire telle que l’assiduité scolaire. VII. Composition de l’équipe d’évaluation L’équipe d’évaluation sera composée d'un ou de plusieurs experts dont le consultant principal qui devra être titulaire d'un diplôme universitaire (BAC + 5) en sciences économiques ou sociales ou en méthodes quantitatives et avoir une expérience d'au moins quinze (15) ans dans l’évaluation des programmes de développement, surtout celles portant sur la protection sociale. Il devra avoir d’excellentes capacités de communication et maîtriser l’outil informatique. VIII. Calendrier des livrables L'expert devra présenter les livrables suivants, transmis en version papier (format A4) et sur support informatique en format Word, et en version SPSS pour les bases de données constituées : • Fin de Semaine no.2 : Une feuille de route dans laquelle le consultant sélectionné pour cette consultation présentera d’une façon détaillée l’approche, la méthodologie et le calendrier des travaux de terrain, d’analyse et de soumission des livrables. • Fin de Semaine no. 24 : Un aide-mémoire de 10 pages maximum (avec des annexes chiffrées basées sur les données existantes et celles nouvellement collectées) qui servira de base à la restitution des principales observations et conclusions relevées. Il doit être remis à la fin de la mission, 4 jours avant la séance de restitution qui sera organisée au MAS. • Fin de Semaine no.30 : Un rapport provisoire tenant compte des observations formulées lors de la réunion de présentation sera envoyé au plus tard 7 jours après la fin de la mission en Tunisie. A noter que le rapport ne devra pas dépasser 40 pages, y compris le résumé exécutif. • Fin de Semaine no. 40 : Un rapport final présentant les conclusions de l’évaluation, la méthodologie de travail, un examen de situation, l’évaluation, les leçons à tirer et les recommandations. IX. Modalités de paiement Le consultant sera rémunéré comme suit : RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 • 30% du budget total lui sera versé dès signature du contrat pour lui permettre une planification et mise en œuvre des éléments de sa feuille de route. • Le deuxième paiement (30%) se fera dès réception de l’aide-mémoire et la tenue de la séance de restitution. • Le paiement final (40%) sera fait dès réception du rapport final. Tout paiement sera conditionné au satisfecit donné par l’UNICEF et ses partenaires. X. Rôles et responsabilités Le consultant devra recruter au moins un membre de son équipe localement pour s'assurer d'une bonne maitrise de certains paramètres (connaissances des bases de données, des contacts clés, bonne coordination, connaissance technique approfondie du domaine à évaluer, etc). Par ailleurs, la réalisation de cette étude sera faite autour d’une collaboration entre plusieurs institutions nationales attitrées ayant l’expertise requise pour l’évaluation des programmes et politiques publiques tels que le CRES, la DGPS et le BEPP (MAS) et d’autres structures dépendant du Ministère de l’éducation tels que le BEPP (ME). Une assistance technique internationale sera mise à la disposition du projet par le bureau de l’UNICEF. Ce consultant international, supervisé par le Chef des Politiques Sociales de l’UNICEF, et aura la responsabilité de produire et soumettre les livrables ci-dessus selon le calendrier établi. Un comité technique national de pilotage et de suivi suivra le déroulement technique de l’évaluation, de l’élaboration de l’approche technique à la revue du rapport final. Ce comité technique facilitera les aspects logistiques et opérationnels de la collecte de nouvelles données, ainsi que l’accès aux données existantes, afin de supporter le consultant à mener à bien et à temps son travail. Les consultants devront, dans leur soumission d’offre technique, détailler les éléments précis qui nécessiteront l’appui du comité technique et en quoi consistera cet appui. XI. Questions éthiques Tous les produits (rapports, bases de données, questionnaires) seront accessibles sans restrictions à l’UNICEF, au Gouvernement de Tunisie et à tous les partenaires impliqués dans cet évaluations. Le consultant ne peut les partager sans la permission de l’UNICEF. XII. Spécifications de l’offre technique Toute offre technique postulant à cette évaluation devra être envoyée à l’adresse suivante : UNICEF Tunisie ; 58 Avenue Tahar Ben Achour 1082. Mutuelleville -Tunis –Tunisie Ne pas Ouvrir/ Attention: Mr Le Chargé des Opérations RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – revised - ANNEX 1 1. Profil du postulant (individuel ou équipe): qualifications, expérience en évaluation des systèmes de protection sociale et CV. 2. Vue d’ensemble des méthodologies/approches proposées pour répondre à chacune des questions de cette évaluation. Celles-ci pourront être ajustées/détaillés dans le premier livrable (feuille de route) une fois le consultant sélectionné. 3. Plan de travail couvrant tous les livrables et respectant les délais, avec une précision du nombre personne-jours requis pour chaque livrable. 4. Budget détaillé (sous plis fermé et séparé de l’offre technique). Le soumissionnaire sélectionné sera notifié par email. RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 UNICEF GENERAL TERMS AND CONDITIONS FOR INSTITUTIONAL/CORPORATE CONTRACTS 1. ACKNOWLEDGMENT COPY Signing and returning the acknowledgment copy of a contract issued by UNICEF or beginning work under that contract shall constitute acceptance of a binding agreement between UNICEF and the Contractor. 2. DELIVERY DATE Delivery Date to be understood as the time the contract work is completed at the location indicated under delivery Terms. 3. PAYMENT TERMS (a) UNICEF shall, unless otherwise specified in the contract, make payment within 30 days of receipt of the contractor's invoice which is issued only upon UNICEF's acceptance of the work specified in the contract (b) Payment against the invoice referred to above will reflect any discount shown under the payment terms provided payment is made within the period shown in the payment terms of the contract (c) The prices shown in the contract cannot be increased except by express written agreement by UNICEF. 4. LIMITATION OF EXPENDITURE No increase in the total liability to UNICEF or in the price of the work resulting from design changes, modifications, or interpretations of the statement of work will be authorized or paid to the contractor unless such changes have been approved by the contracting authority through an amendment to this contract prior to incorporation in the work. 5. TAX EXEMPTION Section 7 of the Convention on the Privileges and Immunities of the United Nations provides, inter alia, that the UN, including its subsidiary organs, is exempt from all direct taxes and is exempt from customs duties in respect of articles imported or exported for its official use. Accordingly, the Vendor authorizes UNICEF to deduct from the vendor's invoice any amount representing such taxes or duties charged by the Vendor to UNICEF. Payment of such corrected invoice amount shall constitute full payment by UNICEF. In the event any taxing authority refuses to recognize the UN exemption from such taxes, the Vendor shall immediately consult with UNICEF to determine a mutually acceptable procedure. Accordingly, the Contractor authorizes UNICEF to deduct from the Contractor's invoice any amount representing such taxes, duties, or charges, unless the Contractor has consulted with UNICEF before the payment thereof and UNICEF has, in each instance, specifically authorized the Contractor to pay such taxes, duties or Charges under protest In that event, the Contractor shall provide UNICEF with written evidence that payment of such taxes, duties or charges has been made and appropriately authorized. Page 1 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 6. LEGAL STATUS. The Contractor shall be considered as having the legal status of an independent contractor vis-a-vis UNICEF. The Contractor's personnel and sub-contractors shall not be considered in any respect as being the employees or agents of UNICEF. 7. CONTRACTOR'S RESPONSIBILITY FOR EMPLOYEES The Contractor shall be responsible for the professional and technical competence of its employees and will select, for work under this Contract, reliable individuals who will perform effectively in the implementation of the Contract, respect the local customs and conform to a high standard of moral and ethical conduct. 8. INDEMNIFICATION The Contractor shall indemnify, hold and save harmless and defend, at its own expense, UNICEF, its officials, agents, servants and employees, from and against all suits, claims, demands and liability of any nature or kind, including their costs and expenses, arising out of the acts or omissions of the Contractor or its employees or subcontractors in the performance of this Contract This provision shall extend, inter alia, to claims and liability in the nature of workmen's compensation, product liability and liability arising out of the use of patented inventions or devices, copyrighted material or other intellectual property by the Contractor, its employees, officers, agents, servants or sub-contractors. The obligations under this Article do not lapse upon termination of this Contract 9. INSURANCE AND LIABILITIES TO THIRD PARTIES (a) The Contractor shall provide and thereafter maintain insurance against all risks in respect of its property and any equipment used for the execution of this Contract (b) The Contractor shall provide and thereafter maintain all appropriate workmen's compensation and liability insurance, or its equivalent, with respect to its employees to cover claims for death, bodily injury or damage to property arising from the execution of this Contract The Contractor represents that the liability insurance includes sub-contractors. (c) The Contractor shall also provide and thereafter maintain liability insurance in an adequate amount to cover third party claims for death or bodily injury, or loss of or damage to property, arising from or in connection with the provision of work under this Contract or the operation of any vehicles, boats, airplanes or other equipment owned or leased by the Contractor or its agents, servants, employees or sub-contractors performing work or services in connection with this Contract. (d) Except for the workmen's compensation insurance, the insurance policies under this Article shall: (i) name UNICEF as additional insured; (ii) include a waiver of subrogation of the Contractor's rights to the insurance carrier against UNICEF; (iii) provide that UNICEF shall receive thirty (30) days written notice from the insurers prior to any cancellation or change of coverage. (iv) The Contractor shall, upon request, provide UNICEF with satisfactory evidence of the insurance required under this Article. 10. SOURCE OF INSTRUCTIONS The Contractor shall neither seek nor accept instructions from any authority external to UNICEF in connection Page 2 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 with the performance of its services under this Contract. The Contractor shall refrain from any action which may adversely affect UNICEF or the United Nations and shall fulfill its commitments with the fullest regard to the interests of UNICEF. 11. ENCUMBRANCES/LIENS The Contractor shall not cause or permit any lien, attachment or other encumbrance by any person to be placed on file or to remain on file in any public office or on file with UNICEF against any monies due or to become due for any work done or materials furnished under this Contract, or by reason of any other claim or demand against the Contractor. 12. TITLE TO EQUIPMENT Title to any equipment and supplies which may be furnished by UNICEF shall rest with UNICEF and any such equipment shall be returned to UNICEF at the conclusion of this Contract or when no longer needed by the Contractor. Such equipment when returned to UNICEF shall be in the same condition as when delivered to the Contractor, subject to normal wear and tear. 13. COPYRIGHT, PATENTS AND OTHER PROPRIETARY RIGHTS UNICEF shall be entitled to all intellectual property and other proprietary rights including but not limited to patents, copyrights and trademarks, with regard to documents and other materials which bear a direct relation to or are prepared or collected in consequence or in the course of the execution of this contract. At UNICEF's request, the Contractor shall take all necessary steps, execute all necessary documents and generally assist in securing such proprietary rights and transferring them to the UNICEF in compliance with the requirements of the applicable law. 14. CONFIDENTIAL NATURE OF DOCUMENTS (a) All maps, drawings, photographs, mosaics, plans, reports, recommendations, estimates, documents and all other data compiled by or received by the Contractor under this Contract shall be the property of UNICEF, shall be treated as confidential and shall be delivered only to the UN authorized officials on completion of work under this Contract. (b) The Contractor may not communicate any time to any other person, Government or authority external to UNICEF, any information known to it by reason of its association with UNICEF which has not been made public except with the authorization of the UNICEF; nor shall the Contractor at any time use such information to private advantage. These obligations do not lapse upon termination of this Contract with UNICEF. 15. FORCE MAJEURE; OTHER CHANGES IN CONDITIONS (a) In the event of and as soon as possible after the occurrence of any cause constituting force majeure, the Contractor shall give notice and full particulars in writing to UNICEF of such occurrence or change if the Contractor is thereby rendered unable, wholly or in part, to perform its obligations and meet its responsibilities under this Contract. The Contractor shall also notify UNICEF of any other changes in conditions or the occurrence of any event which interferes or threatens to interfere with its performance of the Contract. On receipt of the notice required under this Article, UNICEF shall take such action as, in its sole discretion, it considers to be appropriate or necessary in the circumstances, including the granting to the Contractor of a reasonable extension of time in which to perform its obligations under the Contract. Page 3 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 (b) If the Contractor is rendered permanently unable, wholly, or in part, by reason of force majeure to perform its obligations and meet its responsibilities under this Contract, UNICEF shall have the right to suspend or terminate this Contract on the same terms and conditions as are provided for in Article 14, 'Termination', except that the period of notice shall be seven (7) days instead of thirty (30) days. (c) Force majeure as used in this Article means acts of God, war (whether declared or not), invasion, revolution, insurrection or other acts of a similar nature or force. 16. TERMINATION If the Contractor fails to deliver any or all of the deliverables within the time period(s) specified in the contract, or fails to perform any of the terms, conditions, or obligations of the contract, or should the Contractor be judged bankrupt, or be liquidated or become insolvent, or should the contractor make an assignment for the benefit of its creditors, or should a Receiver be appointed on account of the insolvency of the contractor, UNICEF may, without prejudice to any other right or remedy it may have under the terms of these conditions, terminate the contract, forthwith, in whole or in part, upon thirty (30) days notice to the Contractor. UNICEF reserves the right to terminate without cause this Contract at any time upon thirty (30) days prior written notice to the Contractor, in which case UNICEF shall reimburse the Contractor for all reasonable costs incurred by the Contractor prior to receipt of the notice of termination. In the event of any termination no payment shall be due from UNICEF to the Contractor except for work and services satisfactorily performed in conformity with the express terms of this contract. Upon the giving of such notice, the Contractor shall have no claim for any further payment, but shall remain liable to UNICEF for reasonable loss or damage which may be suffered by UNICEF for reason of the default. The Contractor shall not be liable for any loss or damage if the failure to perform the contract arises out of force majeure. Upon termination of the contract, UNICEF may require the contractor to deliver any finished work which has not been delivered and accepted, prior to such termination and any materials or work-in-process related specifically to this contract. Subject to the deduction of any claim UNICEF may have arising out of this contract or termination, UNICEF will pay the value of all such finished work delivered and accepted by UNICEF. The initiation of arbitral proceedings in accordance with Article 22 'Settlement of Disputes' below shall not be deemed a termination of this Contract. 17. SUB-CONTRACTING In the event the Contractor requires the services of subcontractors, the Contractor shall obtain the prior written approval and clearance of UNICEF for all sub-contractors. The approval of UNICEF of a sub-contractor shall not relieve the Contractor of any of its obligations under this Contract. The terms of any sub-contract shall be subject to and in conformity with the provisions of this Contract. 18. ASSIGNMENT AND INSOLVENCY a. The Contractor shall not, except after obtaining the written consent of UNICEF, assign, transfer, pledge or make other dispositions of the Contract, or any part thereof, of the Contractor's rights or obligations under the Contract. Page 4 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 b. Should the Contractor become insolvent or should control of the Contractor change by virtue of insolvency, UNICEF may, without prejudice to any other rights or remedies, terminate the Contract by giving the Contractor written notice of termination. 19. USE OF UNITED NATIONS AND UNICEF NAME AND EMBLEM The Contractor shall not use the name, emblem or official seal of the United Nations or UNICEF or any abbreviation of these names for any purpose 20. OFFICIALS NOT TO BENEFIT The Contractor warrants that no official of UNICEF or the United Nations has received or will be offered by the Contractor any direct or indirect benefit arising from this Contract or the award thereof. The Contractor agrees that breach of this provision is a breach of an essential term of the Contract. 21. PROHIBITION ON ADVERTISING The Contractor shall not advertise or otherwise make public that the Vendor is furnishing goods or services to UNICEF without specific permission of UNICEF. 22. SETTLEMENT OF DISPUTES Amicable Settlement The Parties shall use their best efforts to settle amicably any dispute, controversy or claim arising out of, or relating to this Contract or the breach, termination or invalidity thereof. Where the parties wish to seek such an amicable settlement through conciliation, the conciliation shall take place in accordance with the UNCITRAL Conciliation Rules then obtaining, or according to such other procedure as may be agreed between the parties. Arbitration Any dispute, controversy or claim between the Parties arising out of this Contract or the breach, termination or invalidity thereof, unless settled amicably under the preceding paragraph of this Article within sixty (60) days after receipt by one Party or the other Party's request for such amicable settlement, shall be referred by either Party to arbitration in accordance with the UNCITRAL Arbitration Rules then obtaining. The arbitral tribunal shall have no authority to award punitive damages. In addition, the arbitral tribunal shall have no authority to award interest in excess of six percent (6%) and any such interest shall be simple interest only. The Parties shall be bound by any arbitration award rendered as a result of such arbitration as the final adjudication of any such controversy, claim or dispute. Page 5 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 2 23. PRIVILEGES AND IMMUNITIES The privileges and immunities of the UN, including its subsidiary organs, are not waived. 24. CHILD LABOUR UNICEF fully subscribes to the Convention on the Rights of the Child and draws the attention of potential suppliers to Article 32 of the Convention which inter alia requires that a child shall be protected from performing any work that is likely to be hazardous or to interfere with the child's education, or to be harmful to the child's health or physical, mental, spiritual, moral or social development. 25. ANTI-PERSONNEL MINES UNICEF supports an international ban on the manufacture of anti-personnel mines. Anti-personnel mines have killed and maimed thousands of people, of whom a large proportion are children and women. Anti-personnel mines present a serious obstacle to the return of populations displaced from their residences by fighting around their villages and homes. UNICEF has, therefore, decided not to purchase products from companies that sell or manufacture anti-personnel mines or their components. 26. AUTHORITY TO MODIFY No modification or change in this Contract, no waiver of any of its provisions or any additional contractual relationship of any kind with the Contractor shall be valid and enforceable against UNICEF unless provided by an amendment to this Contract signed by the authorized official of UNICEF. 27. REPLACEMENT OF PERSONNEL UNICEF reserves the right to request the Contractor to replace the assigned personnel if they are not performing to a level that UNICEF considers satisfactory. After written notification, the Contractor will provide curriculum vitae of appropriate candidates within three (3) working days for UNICEF review and approval. The Contractor must replace the unsatisfactory personnel within seven (7) working days of UNICEF's selection. If one or more key personnel become unavailable, for any reason, for work under the contract, the Contractor shall (i) notify the project authority at least fourteen (14) days in advance, and (ii) obtain the project authority's approval prior to making any substitution of key personnel. Key personnel are designated as follows: (a) Personnel identified in the proposal as key individuals (as a minimum, partners, managers, senior auditors) to be assigned for participation in the performance of the contract. (b) Personnel whose resumes were submitted with the proposal; and (c) Individuals who are designated as key personnel by agreement of the Contractor and UNICEF during negotiations. In notifying the project authority, the Contractor shall provide an explanation of circumstances necessitating the proposed replacement(s) and submit justification and qualification of replacement personnel in sufficient detail to permit evaluation of the impact on the engagement. Acceptance of a replacement person by the project authority shall not relieve the Contractor from responsibility for failure to meet the requirements of the contract. Page 6 of 6 RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 3 TECHNICAL EVALUATION Récapitulatif des formulaires d’évaluation des Propositions techniques Coefficien t de la note Note maximu m Société / Autre entité A 1. 2. 3. Expertise de la Société / Organisation soumissionnaire Projet de plan de travail et d’approche Personnel 35% 35 35% 35 30% 30 Total B C D E 100 Les formulaires d’évaluation des offres techniques figurent dans les deux pages suivantes. La note maximum spécifiée pour chacun des critères d’évaluation indique l’importance relative ou le coefficient de l’article dans le contexte du processus d’évaluation globale. Les formulaires d’évaluation de la Proposition technique sont : Formulaire 1: Expertise de la Société / Organisation soumissionnaire Formulaire 2: Projet de plan de travail et d’approche Formulaire 3: Personnel Formulaire d’évaluation de la Proposition technique -- Formulaire 1 Nbre de points maximum Compagnie/ Autre entité A B C D E Expertise de la Compagnie/ Organisation soumissionnaire 1.1 Réputation de l’Organisation et de son personnel (Compétence/Fiabilité) 10 1.2 Capacité organisationnelle générale susceptible d’affecter l’exécution (moyens humains, matériels) Procédures d’assurance de qualité, garantie Pertinence des connaissances spécialisées et expérience professionnelle surtout avec les organisations internationales. 10 1.3 1.4 8,5 6,5 35 Page 1 of 3 - TECHNICAL EVALUATION RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 3 Formulaire d’évaluation de la Proposition technique – Formulaire 2 Nbre de points maxim um Compagnie/ Autre entité A B C D E Projet de plan de travail et d’approche 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 Dans quelle mesure le soumissionnaire comprend-il bien la tâche ? Les aspects importants de la tâche ont-ils été traités de manière suffisamment détaillée ? La proposition est-elle basée sur les détails techniques des services requis ? Le cadre de travail proposé est-il approprié ? Le champ de la tâche est-il bien défini et correspond-il à la mission ? La présentation est-elle claire, et la succession des activités ainsi que la planification sont-elles logiques, réalistes et augurent-elles suffisamment d’une bonne exécution du projet? 4 4 4 6,5 10 6,5 35 Page 2 of 3 - TECHNICAL EVALUATION RFPS–TUN–2012-1101 – ANNEX 3 Nbre de points maximum Evaluation de la proposition technique -Formulaire 3 Compagnie/ Autre entité A 3.1 Qualification et effectif du personnel B C D E 15 Le personnel affecté est-il suffisant ? 7,5 Le personnel affecté est-il bien formé ? 7,5 Sous-total 3.2 Expérience du personnel Chef d’équipe 7,5 Autres membres de l’équipe 7,5 Sous-total Total Général Page 3 of 3 - 15 30 100 TECHNICAL EVALUATION SUPPLIER PROFILE FORM To be completed by Supplier and submitted to UNICEF Office 58 rue Avenue Tahar Ben Achour, Tel. (216) 71 802700, Fax: (216) 793001. Requested information is for UNICEF official use only and will be treated as confidential (Please TYPE or PRINT, attach additional pages if space provided is not enough for information) Please find below UNICEF General Terms and Conditions for reference Section 1: Supplier Profile Name of Company: Address: CP City Tél Country Fax email Contact Person Title Type of Organization State company Private company Offshore company Year Established Other RC ° (Please attach a copy of your Register of Commerce) Page 1 of 4 SUPPLIER PROFILE FORM UNICEF Tunisia Section 2: Activity category Manufacturer Trading Consulting Other Other (Please Specify) Number of Employees Name and title of principals: Name Title Bank details Bank name and address IBAN account N° for US dollars IBAN account N° for Tunisian Dinars Bank Swift Code Page 2 of 4 SUPPLIER PROFILE FORM UNICEF Tunisia Section 3: Activities Current year estimate (US$ _________________ ) Last year (US$ _________________ ) Gross annual turnover: Previous contracts (during the last 2 years) with United Nations/International or Governmental Organizations/Private Companies, for below products/services (provide at least three references): Date Value Product Organization Name/address 1 2 3 4 Main products/services offered (please provide product list or catalogue if available): Storage/warehousing capacity (in square meters): Transportation Yes (If yes, please specify number and capacity) No Section 4: Others Should your company have a Quality Assurance Policy, please indicate person(s) responsible together with title and telephone number: 1 2 Any other information (Check as applicable): Yes No (if yes, please specify. Use additional paper if needed) Page 3 of 4 SUPPLIER PROFILE FORM UNICEF Tunisia I hereby certify that the information provided above and in all the annexure is correct and that no person in any connection with this establishment, as a supplier for providing material, supplies or services, or as a principal or employee, is employed by UNICEF, or barred by UNICEF: Name Title Date Signature and Seal Page 4 of 4 SUPPLIER PROFILE FORM UNICEF Tunisia Appendix 2: Enquête avec parties prenantes TOP LEVEL INTERVIEW version 09-Sept-2013 A. Introductions B. Intro script Merci d’avoir pris le temps de nous retrouver aujourd’hui. Quand nous avons pris ce rendez-vous, nous vous avons demander de participer a l'évaluation d’un programme d’aide scolaire qui fourni de l’assistance financière a des familles avec des enfants scolarises en Tunisie. Ce programme est lie directement au programme de PNAFN mais va être évalué en tant qu’un programme indépendant. Vous êtes parmi 30 décisionnaires, législateurs et intervenants au niveau national qui participerons au entretiens des informateurs clefs. Cet entretien dura environ 60-90 minutes. Nous allons vous demander des questions sur des sujets tel que:: ● Votre opinion du programme ● Votre compréhension du programme et ses objectifs ● Vos expériences au sein du programme Vous pouvez refuser de répondre ou arrêter cet entretien a tout moment. Avec votre permission, nous allons enregistrer notre discussion. Ceci nous aidera a documenter tout ce dont vous partagez avec nous aujourd’hui. Tout les records de notre étude seront confidentiels, garde en sécurité et examine sans information identifiant. Nous espérons que notre rendez-vous aujourd’hui sera plutôt une discussion qu’un entretien stricte, donc nous vous invitons a partager vos idées, vos anecdotes, vos questions..etc mémé s’il ne sont pas en réponse directe a nos questions. Nous voulons savoir votre perspectives et vos expériences, il n’y a pas de réponses justes au fausses. N'hésitez pas de nous demander quoi que ce soit, surtout s’il y a des questions que vous ne comprenez pas parfaitement. C. Rôle / Connections 1. Nous allons commencer par vous demander de décrire votre connections a ce programme. Est-ce que vous avez un rôle spécifique dans ce programme, lie a ce programme? 2. Pour chacun des domaines suivantes, classez votre connaissance dans ce domaine comme:: 1 - très bonne connaissance 2 - quelques connaissance 3 - aucune connaissance A. Les Objectives du programme B. Structure Administrative C. Les décisionnaires clés D. Critères d'éligibilité E. Distribution du programme au niveau local F. Impacte du programme G. Surveillance et Évaluation H. Autre programmes de protection sociale OBJECTIFS: 1. Selon vous, quels sont les objectifs clefs du programme d’aide scolaire ? a. Premier Objectif b. Objectifs secondaires 2. Est-ce que vous pensez que d’autres personnes clefs de cet agence ou d’autre agences impliques dans ce programme ont des objectifs différents ? a. Qui ? b. Quels genres d’objectives ont-ils ? c. Quels problèmes/désaccords sont les résultats de ces différences ? 3. A quel point sont les objectives de ce programme alignes avec les lois et le financement de ce programme ? STRUCTURE ADMINISTRATIVE: 4. De quelle façon est-ce que vous dériverez la structure administrative de ce programme ? a. Financement b. Création de règles c. Mise en œuvre d. Contrôle et surveillance CIBLAGE ET ÉLIGIBILITÉ: 5. Basé sur votre compréhension quels sont les critères d’éligibilité pour ce programme ? 6. Est-ce que vous croyez que les critères d’éligibilité actuels identifient convenablement les personnes qui devraient être cibles par ce programme ? a. Qui est actuellement cible et ne devrait pas l’être ? b. Qui n’est pas cible et devrait l’être ? 7. Est-ce que vous pensez que les critères d’éligibilité sont a. Assez précis ? b. Assez objectifs ? c. Communiques clairement aux niveaux régionaux et locaux ? 8. Le clientelisme est défini comme l'échange de biens et de services pour le soutien politique. Est-ce vous pensez que le clientélisme est un problème a. de la conception du programme au niveau politique ? i. lois et réglementations en ce qui concerne les critères d’éligibilité ii. budget global, allocation du budget au niveau régional b.dans l’exécution du programme au niveau local et régional ? i. détermination d’éligibilité local/régional ii. propagation sélective 9.. A votre avis, quel part de la population cible est au courant de ce programme ? Que devrait être fait pour améliorer la reconnaissance ? DISTRIBUTION 10. Est-ce que vous pensez que ce programme est structuré de manière efficace en ce qui concerne a. La circulation de l’information i. Vers le haut ii. Vers le bas b. Mise en œuvre c. d. La mainmise interne et surveillance S’occuper des besoins de la population ciblée IMPACTE 11. A votre avis, quel est l’impacte des avantages du programme sur a. Les dépenses scolaires des ménages bénéficiaires b. Les inscriptions scolaires c. Les taux d’abandons parmi les bénéficiaires AMÉLIORATIONS 12.. Ou sont les occasions pour a. Faire des économies b. Fournir une protection meilleure c. Améliorer l’efficacité 13.. A votre avis, est-ce que les programmes d’aide et de protection sociale devraient être combinés ? a. Le partage de données et surveillance/évaluation b. La dotation en personnel c. Critère d’éligibilité d. Allocation 14. Comment est-ce que l’organisation des allocations de ce programme peut être améliorée ? a. Calendrier des paiements b. Le montant des allocations c. Le total d’enfants couverts (actuellement 3 enfants par famille) d. Est-ce-que le montant des allocations devrait varie selon les bénéficiaires ? i. Âge/niveau scolaires des enfants ii. La mesure de la pauvreté iii. Variation géographique e. Bénéfices en nature i. Fourniture scolaires, cantine scolaire… 15. Est-ce que l’aide scolaire mensuel devrait dépendre de certaines conditions ? i. Inscription scolaire, assiduité ii. Résultats scolaires iii. Autre SURVEILLANCE ET ÉVALUATION 16.. Quels sont les forces et faiblesses du système de surveillance et évaluation de ce programme ? a. Qu’est-ce que vous changerez du système actuel de surveillance et évaluation ? AUTRE 17.. Qu’est ce que nous avons négligé de demander ? 18. Qu’est ce que nous aurions pu faire mieux ou différemment ? Appendix 3: Enquête Niveau Local ENQUÊTE NIVEAU LOCAL المستوى المحلي المسح _______________ _______________ _______________ Gouvernorat Délégation Addresse A. Ressources موارد A1 - Combien d’autres bureaux servent cette délégation? _____ A2 - A quelle distance se situe le bureau le plus proche? ؟ _____ ما ھي مسافة أقرب مكتبkm A3 - Avec combien de ménages avez-vous eu des contacts en 2013? ؟2013 _____ Ménages A4 - Combien de personnes travaillent dans ce bureau? ماھو عدد األسر الذين وقع االتصال بھم في سنة أسر كم عدد الموظفين في ھذا المكتب؟Personnel _____ الموظفون Remplir une colonne pour chaque travailleur Personnel Personnel Personnel Personnel Personnel ملء عمود واحد عن موظف ظظ A-5 Position الوظيفة موظف#1 موظف#2 موظف#3 موظف#4 موظف#5 ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ ____ h/semaine أسبوعس/ A-6 A participé à l’interview (oui/ non) ( ال/شارك في المقابلة )نعم A-7 Genre (F/M) أ( الجنس/)ذ A-8 Education (1 = primaire, 2 = secondaire, 3 = supérieur) (=عالي3, =ثانوي2 ,=ابتدائي1)تعليم A-9 Connaissances en informatique (1= bonne, 2=moyenne, 3=néant) (=الشىء3,=متوسطة2,=جيدة1) معرفة باالعالمية A-10 Heures de travail hebdomadaires ساعات العمل األسبوعية En dehors du bureau : خارج المكتب Combien d'heures sont consacrées, en moyenne par semaine à ces activités: كم عدد الساعات التي تنفق في المتوسط أسبوعيا على ھذه األنشطة A-11 Sensibilisation à identifier de nouveaux bénéficiaires potentiels التوعية لتحديد المستفيدين المحتملين الجدد A-12 Les visites à domicile afin de déterminer l'admissibilité des nouveaux bénéficiaires الزيارات المنزلية لتحديدأھلية المنتفعين الجدد A-13 Re-certification de l'éligibilité des bénéficiaires إعادة تحديد أھلية المستفيدين Au bureau :في المكتب Combien d'heures sont consacrées, en moyenne par semaine à ces activités: كم عدد الساعات التي تنفق في المتوسط أسبوعيا على ھذه األنشطة A-14 Interagir avec les nouveaux candidats ou les bénéficiaires التفاعل مع المنتفعين الجدد أو المستفيدين A-15 Traitement معالجة A-16 Autres activités أنشطة أخرى A17- Si vous aviez la possibilité d'embaucher une personne supplémentaire pour travailler dans ce bureau, quel serait son rôle principal? (réponses multiples) ( ماذا يكون دوره)إجابات متعددة،إذا كان لديك الفرصة لتوظيف شخص واحد إضافي للعمل في ھذا المكتب A (A-10) B (A-11) C (A-12) D (A-13) E (A-14) F (A-15) Autre _________ ___اخر 1 (Pour l’enquêteur : CT: programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN (aides scolaires) )برنامج المنح المدرسية A-18: Comment évalueriez-vous votre bureau كبف تقيم مكتبك على Très élevé عالية جدا Elevé عالية Moyen متوسط Faible ضعيف Très faible ضعيف جدا Familiarité avec les règles et les règlements du programme PNAFN PNAFN األلفة مع القواعد واللوائح للبرنامج Familiarité avec les règles et les règlements du programme CT CT األلفة مع القواعد واللوائح للبرنامج Identifier et relier tous les enfants admissibles dans votre quartier à des prestations de CT CT تمكين جميع األطفال المؤھلين في منطقتكم بفوائد برنامج Vérification de l'admissibilité continue des bénéficiaires التحقق من األھلية المستمرة للمستفيدين Relations avec d'autres organismes et intervenants التواصل مع الوكاالت األخرى وأصحاب المصلحة La gestion et le reporting bureau إدارة المكاتب وإعداد التقارير Compétences en informatique مھارات الحوسبة La motivation du personnel تحفيز الموظفين La formation du personnel et des qualifications تكوين الموظفين والمؤھلت A19- Quels sont les trois types les plus communs de prestations que les gens demandent ici? ما ھي األنواع الثالث األكثرالمطلوبة من االعانات فيھذا المنصب؟ A. Cartes de soins de santé gratuits ou subventionnés بطاقات الرعاية الصحية المجانية أو المدعومة B. Appui pour l'éducation des enfants _ دعم تعليم األطفال C. Les allocations de chômage _ منح البطالة D. Subventions de chômage _ منحة البطالة E. Les prestations d'invalidité _خدمات العجز و االعاقة F. Professionnel / formation à l'entreprenariat _ تكوين لبعث المشاريع/عمل G. L'aide au logement _دعم اإلسكان H. Autres _________________________ ___ اخر B. Surveillance / normalization توحيد/ الرقابة B1- En 2013, votre bureau a-t-il été visité par des fonctionnaires du bureau central / régional pour l'une des raisons Suivantes (choix multiples): ( اإلقليمي ألي من األسباب التالية )امكانية تعدد االجابات/ كان مكتبكم يزوره مسؤولون من المكتب المركزي،2013 في سنة: A. Formation_ تكوين B. Conformité / contrôle qualité _ مراقبة الجودة/ االمتثال C. Mises à jour du programme _تحين البرنامج D. La gestion des données et des rapports _إدارة البيانات وإعداد التقارير E. Les questions au personnel_أسئلة للموظفين F. Enregistrement régulier_تسجيل إجراءات الوصول بصفة منتظمة G. Autre (préciser) (_____ اخر)أذكره H. Aucune de ces réponses_ال أحد مما سبق B2- En 2013, environ, quelle part de décisions d’admissibilité de PNAFN prises à votre niveau ont été annulées au niveau régional? المتخذة على مستواكم و التي تم رفضھا على المستوى الجھوي ؟PNAFN ما ھي نسبة القرارات النأھيلية لبرنامج2013 في ____ % 2 C. Sensibilisation-التوعية (CT: programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN (aides scolaires) )برنامج المنح المدرسية C1 Est-ce que votre bureau se livre à l'une des activités suivantes pour informer le public sur .. بأي طريقة يقوم مكتبكم باعالم المواطنين PNAFN CT Médias_ _ وسائل اإلعالم Réunions publiques / Événements info أحداث معلومات/ االجتماعات العامة Autre (préciser) (__________________أخر )أذكره Aucune de ces réponses ال أحد مما سبق C2- Quel est le pourcentage de ménages éligibles dans votre délégation ما ھي النسبة المئوية لألسر المؤھلة في برنامج a) PNAFN ___% b) CT ___% C3- Le cas échéant, par quels moyens arrivez vous à identifier les bénéficiaires potentiels du programme CT. CT.ما ھي الوسائل المستعملة لتحديد المستفيدين المحتملين من برنامج،إن وجدت A. Les visites à domicile__الزيارات المنزلية B. Visites dans les écoles _ زيارات إلى المدارس C. Les appels téléphoniques _ المكالمات الھاتفية D. Sensibilisation des dirigeants_ تحسيس المسؤولين E. Autre (préciser) (_________ اخر)أذكره F. Aucune de ces réponses_ال أحد مما سبق C4Combien de fois quelqu'un de votre bureau interagir avec … ..... كم من مرة مكتبكم يتفاعل مع Au moins tous les mois على األقل شھريا Trimestriel كل ثالثة أشھر Annuellement سنويا Jamais أبدا Enseignants_ المعلمون Personnels de proximité de l'école _ العاملين في مجال التوعية المدرسية Les administrateurs scolaires_ مديري المدارس D'autres travailleurs sociaux / bureaux _ مكاتب/ غيرھا من األخصائيين االجتماعيين Responsables politiques locals/ de décision_القرار على المستوى المحلي Responsables politiques régionals/ de décision_القرار على المستوى الجھوي Responsables politiques nationaux/ de décision_القرار على المستوى الوطني ONG _ المنظمات غير الحكومية 3 D. Besoins et évaluation des besoins _ االحتياجات وتقييم االحتياجات D1- Quel est le pourcentage des ménages dans votre district qui reçoivent actuellement des prestations de PNAFN et ne seraient pas admissibles si elles devaient s'appliquer de nouveau aujourd'hui? وليست مؤھلة في الوقت الحالي؟PNAFN ما ھي النسبة المئوية من األسر في ھذه المنطقة الذين يتلقون حاليا فوائد برنامج _____%. D2- Pour assurer l'équité, combien de fois les ménages doivent-ils re-certifier leur admissibilité à PNAFN? ___ كل سنة Tous les ___ ans ؟PNAFN كم من مرة يجب إعادة التصديق رأھلية األسرالمستفيدين ببرنامج,لضمان النزاھة D3- Pensez-vous que les critères d'admissibilité actuels pour le PNAFN sont … Trop stricte Souple Acceptable مقبولة لينة صارمة جدا ... ھيPNAFN ھل تعتقد أن معايير األھلية الحالية لبرنامج D4- Pour déterminer l'admissibilité d'un ménage, les assistants sociaux doivent donner .... des règles plus claires pour guider leurs décisions plus d'espace pour le personnel aucun changement ينبغي إيتاء المرشدين االجتماعيين،في تحديد أھلية األسرة مساحة أكبر للحكم الشخصية قواعد أكثر وضوحا لتوجيه قراراتھم أي تغيير D5- Dans l'évaluation de l'admissibilité d'un ménage, le jugement personnel de l’assistant social doit être accordé plus de poids moins de poids aucun changement يجب أن يتم منح الحكم الشخصي للمرشد االجتماعي،في تقييم أھلية األسر ال تغيير أقل وزن أكثر وزن D6-Lors de la demande de prestations ou la re-certification, à votre avis quel est le pourcentage de ménages qui ont menti sur leur admissibilité? في رأيك ما ھي النسبة المئوية من األسر الذين كذبوا بشأن أھليتھم؟،عند التقدم بمطلب لفوائد البرنامج أو إعادة التصديق ____% D7- Quels sont les critères d'admissibilité actuels qui devraient être exclus pour déterminer l'admissibilité: :ما ھي معايير األھلية الحالية التي ينبغي استبعادھا عند تحديد األھلية PNAFN: __________________________________ CT: _________________________________________ (CT: programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN (aides scolaires) )برنامج المنح المدرسية D8-Quels sont les nouveaux critères d'admissibilité qui vous permettraient de mieux identifier les personnes dans le besoin ما ھي المعايير األھلية الجديدة التي تسمح بتحديد أفضل للمحتاجين PNAFN: __________________________________ CT: _________________________________________ D9-Pensez-vous que l'éligibilité pour le programme de CT de l'éducation doit être liée au PNAFN Oui ال نعم Non PNAFN ببرنامجCT ھل تعتقد أنه يجب ربط األھلية لبرنامج D10- S'il vous plaît pouvez-vous décrire comment l'information sur les changements dans l'admissibilité pour le programme CT des ménages est communiquée au bureau régional (fréquence, méthode, ect ...) (... إلخ، األسلوب، لألسر إلى المكتب الجھوي )ترددCT من فضلكم ھل يمكن وصف كيف يتم اإلبالغ عن المعلومات حول التغييرات في األھلية للبرنامج ________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 4 E. Obstacles_ الحواجز E1-Quels sont les défis que vous rencontrez-vous dans votre travail? (lire les modalités) (ما ھى االتحديات التي تواجكم في وظيفتكم؟ )قراءة االحتماالت A. Charge de travail trop élevée _ عبء العمل عالية جدا B. Transport_ _النقل C. L'organisation et les données de gestion des dossiers_والبيانات D. Manque d'orientation de niveaux supérieurs_العليا E. Manque de resources_الموارد إدارة تنظيم السجالت عدم وجود توجيه من المستويات نقص F. Manque de coopération / coordination avec d'autres organismsأخرى G. Bureaucratie / inefficacité _ الكفاءة التنسيق مع وكاالت/ عدم التعاون- عدم/ البيروقراطية H. Les pressions exercées par les candidats_من قبل المتقدمين I. Autre (préciser) (________________________ اخر)أذكره الضغط E2- D’après vous, effectuer l'une des suivantes constitue des obstacles à l'inscription des familles admissibles au programme CT ؟CT القيام باإلجراءات التالية تشكل الحواجز التي تحول دون تسجيل أي األسر المستحقة في برنامج،بقدر ما كنت تعرف A. Manque d'information des familles admissibles _ نقص المعلومات بين األسر المستحقة اعطاء صورة سلبية المرتبطة المشاركة في البرنامج B. La stigmatisation associée à la participation au programme _ عملية التطبيق D. Fenêtre d'application étroite_نافذة التطبيق الضيق E. La dispersion géographique_التوزيع الجغرافي F. Montant de la prestation insuffisante_ مبلغ االعانة غير كافي G. Conditions sur la scolarisation_الشروط لاللتحاق بالمدارس C. Processus de demande difficile_صعبة H. Autre________________ _________ اخر F. Efficacité _الفعالية (CT: programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN (aides scolaires) )برنامج المنح المدرسية F1- Sur 10 enfants aléatoires qui reçoivent actuellement les paiements CT ... ... CT أطفال عشوائية لديھم اعانات10 كل a) Combien pensez-vous aller régulièrement à l'école ... ____enfant Ne sait pas ال يعرف ____طفل... كم تعتقد يذھب بانتظام إلى المدرسة؟ b) Combien ne serait pas aller à l'école sans les paiements … ____ enfant Ne sait pas كم من ھؤالء ال يذھبون إلى المدرسة في المستقبل دون اعانات؟ طفل____ ال يعرف F2- À votre avis, le montant de la prestation est-il suffisant pour avoir un impact positif sur ... ... مقدار االعانة كافي ليكون لھا تأثير إيجابي على،في رأيك A. Les dépenses des ménages bénéficiaires pour l'éducation? نفقات التعليم األسر المستفيدة؟ B. Le nombre de jours d’absence à l'école?_ عدد أيام تغيب عن المدرسة؟ C. Le rendement scolaire des enfants?_أداء األطفال في المدارس؟ D. La scolarisation des enfants ou l’abandon scolaire? _ التحاق األطفال بالمدارس أو التخلي؟ E. Aucune de ces réponses_ال أحد مما سبق 5 F3- À votre avis, si le maintien des prestations mensuelles de CT dépend... ... تعتمد علىCT يجب استمرار الفوائد الشھرية،في رأيك A. Les dépenses des ménages bénéficiaires pour l'éducation?_ نفقات التعليم األسر المستفيدة؟ B. La fréquentation régulière de l'école?_؟... االلتحاق بالمدارس بصفة عادية C. Le rendement scolaire?_؟.. األداء المدرسي D. La scolarisation des enfants_التحاق األطفال بالمدارس E. Aucune de ces réponses_ال أحد مما سبق F4- À votre avis, les familles pensent recevoir des versements mensuels du programme CT dans le cadre de PNAFN, ou pensentelles que ces paiements sont séparés du PNAFN pour la scolarisation de leurs enfants? . لتعليم أطفالھمPNAFN أو أنھا منفصلة عن برنامج، PNAFN ھل األسر تعتقد أنھا تتلقي دفعات شھرية داخل برنامج،في رأيكم La plupart des familles pensent que ces paiements sont une partie régulière de PNAFN PNAFN معظم األسر تعتقد أن ھذه المدفوعات ھي جزءا منتظما من Certaines familles pensent que les avantages sont pour la scolarité, d'autres pensent qu'ils sont une partie régulière de PNAFN PNAFN والبعض اآلخر يعتقدون أنھم جزءا منتظما من، بعض األسر تعتقد أن الفوائد للتعليم La plupart des familles pensent que les paiements sont spécifiquement pour la scolarité de leurs enfants معظم األسر تعتقد أن المدفوعات خصيصا لتعليم أبنائھم Ne sait pas ال يعرف . G. Suggestions d'amélioration_اقتراحات للتحسين G1- À votre avis, quel serait le montant le plus approprié de remboursement mensuel pour ce programme? ______ Dinar par mois par enfant ______ دينار شھريا لكل طفل ما من شأنه أن يكون مبلغ السداد الشھري األنسب لھذا البرنامج؟،في رأيك G2-À votre avis, le montant de la prestation doit être toujours limité à seulement 3 enfants par famille? Oui Non ال نعم أطفال لكل أسرة؟3 مبلغ االعانة يجب أن تقتصرعلى،حسب رأيك G3-Pour améliorer la scolarisation, l’assiduité et la performance scolaire est-il préférable d'apporter une aide en espèces aux ménages de fournir une aide en nature (livres, etc) pour les enfants dans les écoles وأنه من األفضل، واألداء،لتحسين التسجيل والحضور في المدارس ( لألطفال في المدارس. الخ، تقديم الدعم العيني )الكتب إعطاء الدعم النقدي لألسر G4-Pour avoir le plus grand impact sur la scolarisation, l'assiduité et la performance, les prestations en espèces devraient être payés ... Au début de l'année scolaire chaque trimestre chaque mois ... واإلعانات النقدية ينبغي أن تدفع،ليكون لھا أكبر األثر على االلتحاق والحضور واألداء كل شھر كل ثالثة أشھر في بداية السنة الدراسية. 6 G5-Pour avoir le plus grand impact sur la scolarisation, l'assiduité et la performance, combien de fois les ménages doivent recertifier l'admissibilité de leurs enfants pour CT? chaque mois chaque trimestre Au début de l'année scolaire moins fréquemment ؟CTأھلية أبنائھم لبرنامج- كم مرة يجب إعادة التصديق األسر، واألداء، والحضور،ليكون لھا أكبر األثر على معدالت االلتحاق بالمدارس في قليل من األحيان كل سنة دراسية كل ثالثة أشھر كل شھر G6- Si vous aviez le pouvoir de réaffecter les ressources actuellement consacrées à la CT -vous ... o augmenter le nombre de bénéficiaires, mais réduire les prestations par enfant o réduire le nombre de bénéficiaires, mais augmenter les prestations par enfant ne changera rien ... كنتCT إذا كان لديك القدرة على إعادة تخصيص الموارد التي تنفق حاليا على زيادة عدد المستفيدين و تخفيض الفوائد للطفل الواحد تخفيض عدد المستفيدين و زيادة قيمة االعانة لكل طفل لن يغير شيئا G7-S'il vous plaît, êtes-vous d’accord avec : Le montant de la prestation mensuelle pour un enfant devrait dépendre ... مبلغ االعانة الشھرية للطفل ينبغي أن يعتمد على... A-Rural vs urbain résidence اإلقامة الريفية مقابل الحضرية B- Distance de la résidence de l'enfant à l'école مسافة من اإلقامة الطفل إلى المدرسة C- La scolarisation de l'enfant تعليم الطفل D’accord موافق Neutre محايد Pas d’accord غير موافق D-La fréquentation régulière de l'école االلتحاق بالمدارس بصفة عادية E-Le rendement scolaire de l'enfant األداء المدرسي الطفل F- Le niveau scolaire de l'enfant الرتبة الطفل في المدرسة G-L'état de santé de l'enfant الحالة الصحية لطفل H- Sexe de l'enfant جنس الطفل I-La participation des parents aux activités scolaires إشراك االولياء في األنشطة المدرسية J-L'emploi des parents عمل األولياء K-La propriété foncière ملكية األراضي L-Le revenu des ménages دخل األسرة M-Les actifs des ménages ممتلكات األسر N- Le genre du chef de ménage جنس رب األسرة O-L'invalidité d'un membre du ménage إعاقة من أحد أفراد األسرة P- Nombre d'enfants dans la famille عدد األطفال في األسرة Q- Coût de la vie تكلفة المعيشة المحلية R-Admissibilité à d'autres programmes sociaux األھلية للحصول على برامج اجتماعية أخرى G8- À votre avis, quel critère est le plus important? ______ (A…R) يJJJJJركم وجھة فJJJJنظ، ار ھي ماJJJJJJJأھم؟ ھو المعي G9- Si la prestation PNAFN serait liée à la présence à l'école (ne dépend pas seulement de la scolarisation), selon vous, l'impact du programme sur la scolarisation, l'assiduité et la performance des enfants serait: o Le même o Un peu plus Beaucoup plus elévé 7 Appendix 4 : Enquête beneficiaires et non-beneficiaires République Tunisienne Ministère des Affaires Sociales Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN VISA du Conseil National de la Statistique N° 002/2014 Questionnaire ménage Les dispositions de la loi N° 99-32 du 13 avril 1999, relative au système national de la statistique, sont applicables à la présente enquête L'article 5 : relatif au secret statistique signifie que les données individuelles, figurants sur les questionnaires des enquêtes statistiques ne peuvent êtres divulguées en aucun cas, ces données ne seront utilisées à d'autres fins que statistiques, ces informations individuelles ne peuvent pas êtres utilisées à des fins ayant une relation avec le contrôle fiscal, économique ou social. Par ailleurs, les agents des services statistiques sont astreints au respect du secret professionnel. L'article 6 : Relatif à l'obligation de réponse avec exactitude et dans les délais impartis aux questionnaires des enquêtes statistiques ayant une autorisation. L'article 26 : Relatif aux sanctions au moyen d'une amende pécuniaire pour toute personne qui refuse de répondre aux questionnaires des enquêtes statistiques ayant une autorisation ou qui donne des réponses incomplètes ou inexactes. Gouvernorat |__|__| Délégation |__|__| Identifiant |__|__|-|_1_|-|__|__|-|__| Nom du chef de ménage : ______________________________________________________________ Adresse : ____________________________________________________________________________ Téléphone |__|__|__|__|__|__|__|__| Num ID du répondant |__|__| Enquêteur ……………………………..………………………… Code |__|__| Codes Résultat 1 ère visite 2 ème visite 3 ème visite 1 Complet Date visite |__|__|/|__|__| |__|__|/|__|__| |__|__|/|__|__| 2 Partiellement complet Heure début |__|__| : |__|__| |__|__| : |__|__| |__|__| : |__|__| 3 Aucun répondant Heure fin |__|__| : |__|__| |__|__| : |__|__| |__|__| : |__|__| 4 Refus |__| |__| |__| 5 Autre Code Résultat 1 Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire B. Caractéristiques des membres du ménage B1 Num ID B2 Prénom Liste des membres du ménage en commençant par le chef du ménage. B3 Lien de parenté avec le chef du ménage B4 Sexe B5 Age 1=Homme 2=Femme B6 Etat matrimonial 1=Célibataire 2=Marié(e) 3=Divorcé(e) 4=Veuf(ve) 1=Chef de ménage 2=Conjoint 3=Fils/Fille 4=Autre parent 5=Aucun lien de parenté B7 Bénéfici e-t-il de PNAFN /AMG-2 (carnet jaune) B8 Savezvous lire et écrire une langue 1=Oui 2=Non 1 - PNAFN 2 - AMG-2 3 - Non B9 B10 Poursuivezvous actuellemen t un cycle d’éducation ou de formation Quel est le niveau d’étude le plus élevé que vous avez atteint 1=Oui 2=Non 01 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 02 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 03 1 2 3 4 5 1 04 1 2 3 4 5 05 1 2 3 4 06 1 2 3 07 1 2 08 1 09 (Voir Table B10) |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 10 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 11 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 12 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 1 2 1 2 B11 B12 B13 B14 Réservé aux personnes âgées de 6 ans et plus Quelle Avez-vous Quel est Combien année eu un votre de mois d’étude diplôme diplôme avez-vous avez-vous d’étude ou travaillé terminée un diplôme durant avec succès de l’année (Voir Table formation dernière (Voir Table 1 page 4) 1 2 |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| |__|__| 1 2 |__| Table code question B13: Table code question B16: 0 1 2 01 02 03 Diplôme avant bac Bac ou équivalent Technicien supérieur 1 2 3 Administration ou établissement public Société publique Société privée tunisienne Ancien régime 3 Primaire 4 Secondaire 04 05 06 Maîtrise en Lettre et sciences sociales Maîtrise d’économie, gestion, droit Maîtrise en sciences exactes 4 5 6 Société privée étrangère Local privé Logement 5 Professionnel Nouveau régime 6 Ecole de base 7 Secondaire Supérieur 8 Supérieur court 9 Supérieur long 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Autres maîtrises Diplôme d’ingénieur Médecin ou pharmacien Master ou équivalent Doctorat Diplôme formation CAP Diplôme formation BTP Diplôme formation BTS 7 8 9 10 Ambulant Exploitation agricole Chantier bâtiment Autre 15 Autre Diplôme formation 2 1=Oui 2=Non |__|__| |__| Table code question B10: Néant Ecole coranique Cours d’alphabétisation B13) B15 B16 Est-ce que vous travaillez (ou vous avez travaillé) Quel est le lieu de votre emploi 1=Indépendant avec salariés 2=Indépendant sans salarié 3=Salarié 4=Apprenti 5=Aide familial 6=Autre (Voir Table B16) |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| 1 2 3 4 5 6 |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| B17. Y a-t-il d'autres enfants, 5-19 ans, qui ne vivent pas dans ce ménage (Si oui, s'il vous plaît ajouter à la liste ci-dessus.) B18. Y a-t-il dans le ménage un membre ayant une difficulté physique ou mentale qui l’empêche de mener une vie normale B19. Si oui, combien de personnes se trouvent dans cette situation Numéro Type de difficultés |__| Avez-vous une carte d’handicapé d’ordre Physique Physique Physique Physique Mentale Mentale Mentale Mentale Oui Non Oui Non Oui Oui Oui Oui Non Non Non Non Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire C. Environnement familial (Remplissez une colonne pour chaque enfant 5-19 ans C1. Numéro d'ordre de l'enfant au sein du ménage |__|__| C2. Prénom de l’enfant |__|__|/|__|__|__|__| Mois / année |__|__| C3. Mois et Année de naissance de l’enfant C4. Nombre de frères et sœurs plus âgés que cet enfant C5. Est-ce que l’enfant habite dans ce ménage ? C6. Est-ce que la mère biologique de l’enfant habite dans ce ménage ? C7. Est-ce que le père biologique habite dans ce ménage ? C8. Si aucun parent n’est présent : Qui est le principal responsable de l’enfant C9. Lien de parenté de l’enfant avec la personne interrogée : Oui ID………………………… 1. Fils ou fille 2. Beau-fils / belle fille 3. Autre lien de parenté 4. Aucun lien de parenté C10. Au cours de la semaine passée, combien d’heures est-ce que l’enfant a passé aux activités suivantes ? • Tâches ménagères (garde d’enfants, nettoyage, etc.) • Travail quelconque pour quelqu’un qui est en dehors du ménage C11. Si l’enfant a passé au moins 1 heure d’activité économique au cours de la semaine dernière : Combien d’argent est-ce que l’enfant a gagné ? C12. Est-ce que l’enfant a suivi l’année préparatoire (préscolaire) ? C13. Est-ce que l’enfant est allé à l’école ? C14. Si non, pour quelle raison l’enfant n’a pas fréquenté l’école ? C15. Quel enfant a-t-il le potentiel le plus élevé ? C16. Quel enfant a-t-il le potentiel le moins élevé ? C17. Pour le plus élevé ET le moins élevé : Pourquoi êtes-vous de cette opinion Non 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absente 3. Non, Décédée 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absent 3. Non, Décédé |__|__| |__|__| |__|__| |__|__|/|__|__|__|__| Mois / année |__|__| |__|__|/|__|__|__|__| Mois / année |__|__| |__|__|/|__|__|__|__| Mois / année |__|__| Oui Non 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absente 3. Non, Décédée 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absent 3. Non, Décédé ID………………………… 1. Fils ou fille 2. Beau-fils / belle fille 3. Autre lien de parenté 4. Aucun lien de parenté Oui Non 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absente 3. Non, Décédée 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absent 3. Non, Décédé ID………………………… 1. Fils ou fille 2. Beau-fils / belle fille 3. Autre lien de parenté 4. Aucun lien de parenté Oui Non 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absente 3. Non, Décédée 1. Oui, ID………………………… 2. Non, absent 3. Non, Décédé ID………………………… 1. Fils ou fille 2. Beau-fils / belle fille 3. Autre lien de parenté 4. Aucun lien de parenté |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__| Heure(s)/ Semaine |__|__|__|Dinars Travaux non rémunérés |__|__|__|Dinars Travaux non rémunérés |__|__|__|Dinars Travaux non rémunérés |__|__|__|Dinars Travaux non rémunérés a. Oui 3-4 ans b. Oui 5-6 ans c. Non 1. Oui Enfant suivant 2. Non a. Ecole éloignée b. Maladies ou handicap c. Besoin de l’enfant pour le travail d. Autre ; préciser ________________ a. Oui 3-4 ans b. Oui 5-6 ans c. Non 1. Oui Enfant suivant 2. Non a. Ecole éloignée b. Maladies ou handicap c. Besoin de l’enfant pour le travail d. Autre ; préciser ________________ a. Oui 3-4 ans b. Oui 5-6 ans c. Non 1. Oui Enfant suivant 2. Non a. Ecole éloignée b. Maladies ou handicap c. Besoin de l’enfant pour le travail d. Autre ; préciser ________________ a. Oui 3-4 ans b. Oui 5-6 ans c. Non 1. Oui C15 2. Non a. Ecole éloignée b. Maladies ou handicap c. Besoin de l’enfant pour le travail d. Autre ; préciser ________________ 1. Plus élevé 2. Moins élevé 1. Plus élevé 2. Moins élevé 1. Plus élevé 2. Moins élevé 1. Plus élevé 2. Moins élevé a. Rang d’âge de l’enfant b. Garçon c. Fille d. Connaissances e. Attitudes/comportements f. Autres a. Rang d’âge de l’enfant b. Garçon c. Fille d. Connaissances e. Attitudes/comportements f. Autres 3 a. Rang d’âge de l’enfant b. Garçon c. Fille d. Connaissances e. Attitudes/comportements f. Autres a. Rang d’âge de l’enfant b. Garçon c. Fille d. Connaissances e. Attitudes/comportements f. Autres Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire D. Parcours scolaire (remplissez un formulaire pour chaque enfant âgé de 5 à 19 ans qui a été scolarisé) Numéro de famille : D1. Indiquez l’année pendant laquelle l’enfant a commencé le Cycle primaire D2. Quel âge avait-il Année scolaire 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 |__|__|__|__| |__|__|-|_1_|-|__|__|-|__| Numéro de l’enfant |__|__| |__|__| D3 D4 Est-ce que l’enfant a fréquenté l’école pendant cette année là ? Dans quelle classe était-il inscrit (Utilisez les codes du tableau 1) Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Suivant Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Prénom de l’enfant D5 Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant _________________ Remplissez une rangée pour chaque année scolaire, en commençant par la toute première année. Prêtez attention particulièrement aux classes répétées et aux cas d’abandon temporaire. Si l’enfant n’a pas fréquenté l’école au courant de l’année : quelles sont les raisons Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Tableau 1 Jamais scolarisé Année préparatoire XX P0 Cycle primaire ère 1 année ème 2 année 3ème année 4ème année 5ème année 6ème année P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Collège 7ème année ème 8 année ème 9 année P7 P8 P9 Lycée 1ère année 2ème année 3ème année 4ème année S1 S2 S3 S4 Formation professionnelle CAP BTP BTS Diplôme FP F1 F2 F3 F4 Combien d’argent -aurait-il suffit pour vous inciter à garder votre enfant à l’école/collège/lycée ? |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois D6. Quelle école fréquente-t-il ? Nom de l’école : _______________________________________________ |__|__|__|__|__|__| Si l’enfant fréquente l’école actuellement Tous les enfants D7. A quelle distance se trouve l’école ? |__|__| km D8. Combien de fois est-il allé à l’école pendant les 5 derniers jours ? |__| D9. Par rapport à son/ses camarades de classe, comment est sa performance à l'école? ☐Supérieure ☐Similaire ☐Inférieure D10. Pendant quel mois et année a-t-il fréquenté l’école pour la dernière fois ? D11. Quel est le niveau scolaire le plus élevé que ☐ Primaire vous attendez de votre enfant ? ☐ Secondaire 4 |__|__| / 20|__|__| ☐ Supérieur ☐ Au delà Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire D. Parcours scolaire (remplissez un formulaire pour chaque enfant âgé de 5 à 19 ans qui a été scolarisé) Numéro de famille : D1. Indiquez l’année pendant laquelle l’enfant a commencé le Cycle primaire D2. Quel âge avait-il Année scolaire 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 |__|__|__|__| |__|__|-|_1_|-|__|__|-|__| Numéro de l’enfant |__|__| |__|__| D3 D4 Est-ce que l’enfant a fréquenté l’école pendant cette année là ? Dans quelle classe était-il inscrit (Utilisez les codes du tableau 1) Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Suivant Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Prénom de l’enfant D5 Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant _________________ Remplissez une rangée pour chaque année scolaire, en commençant par la toute première année. Prêtez attention particulièrement aux classes répétées et aux cas d’abandon temporaire. Si l’enfant n’a pas fréquenté l’école au courant de l’année : quelles sont les raisons Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Tableau 1 Jamais scolarisé Année préparatoire XX P0 Cycle primaire ère 1 année ème 2 année 3ème année 4ème année 5ème année 6ème année P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Collège 7ème année ème 8 année ème 9 année P7 P8 P9 Lycée 1ère année 2ème année 3ème année 4ème année S1 S2 S3 S4 Formation professionnelle CAP BTP BTS Diplôme FP F1 F2 F3 F4 Combien d’argent -aurait-il suffit pour vous inciter à garder votre enfant à l’école/collège/lycée ? |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois D6. Quelle école fréquente-t-il ? Nom de l’école : _______________________________________________ |__|__|__|__|__|__| Si l’enfant fréquente l’école actuellement Tous les enfants D7. A quelle distance se trouve l’école ? |__|__| km D8. Combien de fois est-il allé à l’école pendant les 5 derniers jours ? |__| D9. Par rapport à son/ses camarades de classe, comment est sa performance à l'école? ☐Supérieure ☐Similaire ☐Inférieure D10. Pendant quel mois et année a-t-il fréquenté l’école pour la dernière fois ? D11. Quel est le niveau scolaire le plus élevé que ☐ Primaire vous attendez de votre enfant ? ☐ Secondaire 5 |__|__| / 20|__|__| ☐ Supérieur ☐ Au delà Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire D. Parcours scolaire (remplissez un formulaire pour chaque enfant âgé de 5 à 19 ans qui a été scolarisé) Numéro de famille : D1. Indiquez l’année pendant laquelle l’enfant a commencé le Cycle primaire D2. Quel âge avait-il Année scolaire 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 |__|__|__|__| |__|__|-|_1_|-|__|__|-|__| Numéro de l’enfant |__|__| |__|__| D3 D4 Est-ce que l’enfant a fréquenté l’école pendant cette année là ? Dans quelle classe était-il inscrit (Utilisez les codes du tableau 1) Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Suivant Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Prénom de l’enfant D5 Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant _________________ Remplissez une rangée pour chaque année scolaire, en commençant par la toute première année. Prêtez attention particulièrement aux classes répétées et aux cas d’abandon temporaire. Si l’enfant n’a pas fréquenté l’école au courant de l’année : quelles sont les raisons Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Tableau 1 Jamais scolarisé Année préparatoire XX P0 Cycle primaire ère 1 année ème 2 année 3ème année 4ème année 5ème année 6ème année P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Collège 7ème année ème 8 année ème 9 année P7 P8 P9 Lycée 1ère année 2ème année 3ème année 4ème année S1 S2 S3 S4 Formation professionnelle CAP BTP BTS Diplôme FP F1 F2 F3 F4 Combien d’argent -aurait-il suffit pour vous inciter à garder votre enfant à l’école/collège/lycée ? |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois D6. Quelle école fréquente-t-il ? Nom de l’école : _______________________________________________ |__|__|__|__|__|__| Si l’enfant fréquente l’école actuellement Tous les enfants D7. A quelle distance se trouve l’école ? |__|__| km D8. Combien de fois est-il allé à l’école pendant les 5 derniers jours ? |__| D9. Par rapport à son/ses camarades de classe, comment est sa performance à l'école? ☐Supérieure ☐Similaire ☐Inférieure D10. Pendant quel mois et année a-t-il fréquenté l’école pour la dernière fois ? D11. Quel est le niveau scolaire le plus élevé que ☐ Primaire vous attendez de votre enfant ? ☐ Secondaire 6 |__|__| / 20|__|__| ☐ Supérieur ☐ Au delà Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire D. Parcours scolaire (remplissez un formulaire pour chaque enfant âgé de 5 à 19 ans qui a été scolarisé) Numéro de famille : D1. Indiquez l’année pendant laquelle l’enfant a commencé le Cycle primaire D2. Quel âge avait-il Année scolaire 1999/2000 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 |__|__|__|__| |__|__|-|_1_|-|__|__|-|__| Numéro de l’enfant |__|__| |__|__| D3 D4 Est-ce que l’enfant a fréquenté l’école pendant cette année là ? Dans quelle classe était-il inscrit (Utilisez les codes du tableau 1) Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Suivant Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ A passé A échoué Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 ___ Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Oui Non D5 Prénom de l’enfant D5 Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant A passé A échoué Suivant _________________ Remplissez une rangée pour chaque année scolaire, en commençant par la toute première année. Prêtez attention particulièrement aux classes répétées et aux cas d’abandon temporaire. Si l’enfant n’a pas fréquenté l’école au courant de l’année : quelles sont les raisons Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Activité économique Travail à domicile Mauvais résultats Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Etudes suffisantes Maladie ou handicap Autre Tableau 1 Jamais scolarisé Année préparatoire XX P0 Cycle primaire ère 1 année ème 2 année 3ème année 4ème année 5ème année 6ème année P1 P2 P3 P4 P5 P6 Collège 7ème année ème 8 année ème 9 année P7 P8 P9 Lycée 1ère année 2ème année 3ème année 4ème année S1 S2 S3 S4 Formation professionnelle CAP BTP BTS Diplôme FP F1 F2 F3 F4 Combien d’argent -aurait-il suffit pour vous inciter à garder votre enfant à l’école/collège/lycée ? |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois |__|__|__| Dinars par mois D6. Quelle école fréquente-t-il ? Nom de l’école : _______________________________________________ |__|__|__|__|__|__| Si l’enfant fréquente l’école actuellement Tous les enfants D7. A quelle distance se trouve l’école ? |__|__| km D8. Combien de fois est-il allé à l’école pendant les 5 derniers jours ? |__| D9. Par rapport à son/ses camarades de classe, comment est sa performance à l'école? ☐Supérieure ☐Similaire ☐Inférieure D10. Pendant quel mois et année a-t-il fréquenté l’école pour la dernière fois ? D11. Quel est le niveau scolaire le plus élevé que ☐ Primaire vous attendez de votre enfant ? ☐ Secondaire 7 |__|__| / 20|__|__| ☐ Supérieur ☐ Au delà Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire E. Attitudes vis-à-vis de la scolarité des enfants E1. Qui dans votre foyer décide si l’enfant va à E7. Pour l’un de vos enfants actuellement inscrits à l’école ou pas? l’école, quels sont les éléments manquants pour des contraintes financières? (Possibilités de plusieurs réponses) (Possibilités de plusieurs réponses) a) Père b) Mère c) Enfant d) Grands-parents e) Quelqu'un d'autre f) Ne sait pas E2. Qui dans votre foyer décide quand un enfant doit arrêter d’aller à l’école? (Possibilités de plusieurs réponses) E8. De combien d’argent supplémentaire avez-vous a) Père b) Mère c) Enfant d) Grands-parents e) Quelqu'un d'autre f) Ne sait pas besoin pour fournir les éléments manquants pour tous vos enfants au cours de cette année scolaire? (Dinars par an) |__|__|__| Dinars par an E9. Cette année scolaire, votre enfant aîné inscrit est E3. Au minimum, un garçon devrait rester scolarisé allé régulièrement à l'école: jusqu’à quel niveau d’études? 1) Primaire 2) Collège 3) Secondaire 4) Supérieur 5) Ne sait pas E4. Au minimum, une fille devrait rester scolarisée jusqu’à quel niveau d’études? 1) Primaire 2) Collège 3) Secondaire 4) Supérieur 5) Ne sait pas a) Tous les mois b) Aucun de ces mois c) en Septembre d) en Octobre e) en Novembre f) en Décembre g) en Janvier h) en Février E10. Si, au cours de la prochaine année scolaire, vous deviez recevoir un supplément de 20 Dinars pendant tous les mois que votre enfant fréquente l’école, est-ce que vous enverrez votre aîné à l’école ? E5. Avez-vous déjà arrêté ou envisagé d’arrêter la scolarité d’un de vos enfants avant ce niveau d’études ? a) Cartable d’école b) Livres scolaires c) Cahiers et autres fournitures scolaires d) Transport scolaire e) Uniforme scolaire f) Leçons particulières et études g) Frais de scolarité, droit d’inscription h) Autres...................................... i) Ne sait pas 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas E11. Si, au cours de la prochaine année scolaire, vous ne recevez pas d’argent supplémentaire pour la scolarité de vos enfants, est-ce que vous enverrez votre aîné à l’école ? E6. Si oui, pour quelle(s) raison(s)? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options a) La famille n'étais pas en mesure de payer les frais scolaires b) L’école est éloignée du domicile c) L'école n'enseigne pas ce qui devrait être enseigné d) Manque de sécurité e) L'enfant devait travailler à la maison f) L'enfant devait gagner de l'argent g) L'enfant ne travaillait pas suffisamment a l'école h) L'enfant était malade/ handicapé i) Autre.............................. 8 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire E12. Pour votre enfant le plus âgé qui fréquente l'école, combien d'argent chaque mois l'enfant doit gagner en travaillant pour que vous le retiriez de l'école? E19. Si vous avez des enfants ayant abandonné l’école, avez-vous été contacté pour sa réintégration à l’école par l’une des parties suivantes : |__|__|__| Dinars par mois (Mettre 888 si la réponse est : je le laisserai continuer ses études / Mettre 998 si la réponse est : Ne sait pas) E13. Connaissez-vous une loi quelconque sur la scolarité obligatoire des enfants? 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas E20. J’aide mes enfants à comprendre que bien travailler à l’école peut les aider à gagner plus d’argent dans le futur. E14. Si vous répondez “oui”: la scolarité pour les enfants est obligatoire jusqu’à quel âge? ............................................................... E15. A quel point est-il important pour un parent d’être impliqué dans la scolarité de ses enfants? (Une seule réponse possible) a) Un responsable de l’établissement scolaire b) Une association c) Le délégué régional des affaires sociales d) Un ancien camarade de classe de votre enfant 1) Jamais 2) Occasionnellement 3) Souvent 4) Ne sait pas E21. Je montre à mes enfants à quel point ce qu’ils apprennent en classe sera important dans le futur. 1) Très important 2) Peu important 3) Pas important 1) Jamais 2) Occasionnellement 3) Souvent 4) Ne sait pas E16. Combien de fois avez-vous rencontré les enseignants ou les autorités scolaires de vos enfants au cours de l’année dernière E22. Je discute avec mes enfants à propos des rentabilités associées à certaines carrières. |__|__| E17. Est-ce qu’il y a un comité des parents dans l’établissement scolaire de vos enfants? 1) Jamais 2) Occasionnellement 3) Souvent 4) Ne sait pas E23. J’utilise toujours les exemples des travaux pour communiquer l’importance de l’éducation. 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas E18. Si vous répondez “oui”: avez-vous participé ou bien participez-vous aux activités du comité? (Une seule réponse possible) 1) Jamais 2) Occasionnellement 3) Souvent 4) Ne sait pas E24. Je discute avec mes enfants à propos de certaines carrières pour les aider à planifier leurs études secondaires. 1) Jamais 2) Moins d’une fois par an 3) Une fois par an ou plus 4) Ne sait pas 9 1) Jamais 2) Occasionnellement 3) Souvent 4) Ne sait pas Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire Je vais maintenant vous parler de quelques programmes d’appui. Pour chacun de ces programmes nous voudrions savoir si vous avez déjà entendu parler ou si quelqu’un dans votre famille en a déjà bénéficié 2008-09 ou avant F. Soutien à la famille Description du programme F1). Carnet de soins médicaux gratuits ou à tarifs réduits Est-ce qu’il ya quelqu’un dans votre famille qui en a déjà bénéficié ? Oui Une carte octroyée par le gouvernement qui garantit des soins médicaux gratuits ou subventionnés Non F2 F2). Transferts d’argent mensuels pour la scolarité Oui Un programme gouvernemental qui fournit des payements Non F3 mensuels à des familles pour trois enfants scolarisés Oui Aides occasionnelles allouées à l’occasion de rentrée scolaire Non F4 Des programmes privés ou publics qui fournissent des livres, uniformes, cours du soir, transport, ou repas à des cantines scolaires ou subventionnés 2011-12 2012-13 Courant Nombre d’enfants à l’école : |__|__| Nombre d’enfants à l’école : |__|__| Nombre d’enfants à l’école : |__|__| Nombre d’enfants à l’école : |__|__| Nombre d’enfants à l’école : |__|__| Gratuits Gratuits Gratuits Gratuits Gratuits A tarifs réduits A tarifs réduits A tarifs réduits A tarifs réduits A tarifs réduits A tarifs réduits Jamais Jamais Jamais Jamais Jamais Jamais Oui Non Oui Non Oui Non Oui Non Oui Non Oui Non |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants Oui Non Nombre de bénéficiaires Montant total F4). Appui pour fournitures scolaires 2010-11 Gratuits Nombre de bénéficiaires F3). Montant au début de l’année scolaire 2009-10 Oui Non |__|__| enfants Oui Non |__|__| enfants Oui Non |__|__| enfants Oui Non |__|__| enfants Oui Non |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants |__|__| enfants |__|__|__| dinars |__|__|__| dinars |__|__|__| dinars |__|__|__| dinars |__|__|__| dinars |__|__|__| dinars Oui Non F5 Si vous répondez « Oui » : De quel(s) genre de programme(s) avez-vous bénéficié (s) Quels groupes ou organisations ont fourni cet appui pour l’éducation des enfants ? a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres a. Livres scolaires b. Uniformes c. Repas / cantine d. Cours du soir e. Transport f. Aucun a. Gouvernement b. Org. religieuse c. ONG d. Ecole e. Autres F5). Remises des fonds Non Remises ou transferts des fonds de la part des membres de Oui (section suivante) la famille ou amis Si vous répondez «oui», indiquez le montant total par an Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars 10 Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars Oui Non |__|__|__| dinars Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire G. PNAFN G.1) Avez-vous déjà entendu parler du PNAFN? G.7) Si NON: Pourquoi pas? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) 1) Oui 2) Non 3) Ne sait pas ➥Si NON: allez directement à la partie suivante (H) G.2) Comment avez-vous connu ce programme ? a) b) c) d) e) f) g) Pas suffisamment pauvre Incapable de prouver le besoin Processus de demande d'application difficile Corruption Clientélisme/Appartenance politique Raté la période d'application Autre (à préciser ________________________) ➥Si la réponse à la question #6 est NON allez directement (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) à la partie suivante (H) a) par des amis/voisins/membres de la famille b) par l'école G.8) Quel est votre degré de satisfaction global vis- c) par un(e) assistant(e) social(e) à-vis du PNAFN ? d) par les autorités locales e) par les autorités régionales ou nationales 1) Tout à fait satisfait f) par la radio, la télévision, ou un journal 2) Plutôt satisfait g) Autre ..................................... 3) Plutôt insatisfait 4) Pas du tout satisfait G.3) Selon vous, quels sont les avantages fournis par ce programme ? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options a) Soins médicaux gratuits ou subventionnés b) Les paiements mensuels c) L'aide alimentaire d) L'argent pour l'éducation des enfants e) Autre ..................................... G.9) Quand avez-vous fait la première demande d’adhésion à ce programme ? Mois: _____/ Année: _____ G.10) Est-ce que quelqu’un a rendu visite à la famille pour déterminer leur admissibilité pour ce programme? G.4) Quelles sont les conditions pour bénéficier de 1) Oui 2) Non G.11) Vous avez attendu combien de temps pour ce programme? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options connaître la décision d’admissibilité au programme? a) Pauvreté b) Handicap 1) < 1 mois 2) 1 à 3 mois 3) 4 à 11 mois 4) Une année et plus c) Autre ..................................... G.12) Avez-vous reçu une quelconque aide pendant que vous attendiez la décision ? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) G.5) Croyez-vous qu’il y a un membre de cette famille qui est qualifié pour ce programme? 1) Oui 2) Non G.6) Avez-vous déjà fait une demande pour ce e) programme? a) b) c) d) Soins médicaux gratuits ou subventionnés Les paiements mensuels L'aide alimentaire L'argent pour l'éducation des enfants Autre ..................................... G.13) Est-ce que votre première demande a été 1) Oui 2) Non approuvée? 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si OUI allez directement à la question #G19 11 Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire G.14) A votre avis, quelles étaient les raisons pour G.21) En quelles années avez-vous renouvelé votre lesquelles votre demande n’a pas été approuvée? admissibilité pour continuer à recevoir vos indemnités ? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) (Reproduire la réponse mot par mot puis mettre le code correspondant dans la question G15) a) 2007 ou avant ............................................................... b) 2008 G.15) Recodage de l’enquêteur c) 2009 (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options d) 2010 e) 2012 a) Pas assez pauvre f) 2013 b) Incapable de prouver le besoin g) 2014 c) Raté la période de demande h) Jamais d) Corruption e) Affiliation politique/Clientélisme G.22) Y a-t-il quelqu’un qui est venu chez vous pour f) Autre ..................................... évaluer la continuation de votre admissibilité? G.16) Avez-vous fait un recours contre la décision? 1) Oui 2) Non 1) Oui 2) Non G.23) Quand avez-vous reçu vos indemnités pour la dernière fois ? G.17) Est-ce que vos demandes de recours avaient Mois: _____ / Année: _____ été éventuellement acceptées? 1) Oui 2) Non G.24) Au total, au cours des 12 derniers mois, combien d’argent votre famille a reçu sous forme d’assistance financière sociale de la part des autorités? ➥Si NON allez directement à la partie suivante (H) G.18) Avez-vous déjà reçu des allocations de ce |__|__|__|__| (en programme? G.25) Combien avez-vous consacré de cet argent, le 1) Oui 2) Non cas échéant, pour soutenir la scolarité de vos enfants? G.19) Quand est-ce que votre foyer a reçu des |__|__|__|__| (en allocations pour la première fois? Mois: _____/ Année: _____ G.20) Etiez-vous obligé(e) de prouver la continuation de votre admissibilité pour ce programme? dinars) 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si NON: allez directement à la question G22 12 dinars) Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire H. Transfert Monétaire pour l’éducation H.1) Connaissez-vous le programme destiné aux H.9) Si NON: Pourquoi pas? bénéficiaires de PNAFN qui fournit des paiements annuels et mensuels aux familles dont les enfants sont scolarisés? 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si OUI, allez directement à la question #H5 H.2) Si NON: Connaissez-vous un programme ou une structure quelconque qui fournit l’appui financier aux familles dont les enfants sont scolarisés? a) Pas assez pauvre b) Incapable de prouver le besoin c) Le processus de demande est difficile d) Raté la période de demande e) Corruption f) Affiliation politique/Clientélisme g) Autre ..................................... ➥Si la réponse à la question #8 est NON allez directement à la partie suivante (I) H.10) Quand avez-vous fait la première demande pour ce programme? Mois: _____ / Année: _____ H.11) Est-ce que quelqu’un a rendu visite à la famille pour déterminer leur admissibilité pour ce programme? 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si NON: allez directement à la partie suivante (I) H.3) Quel est le nom de ce programme? ............................................................... H.4) Selon vous, quels sont les avantages fournis par ce programme ? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) 1) Oui 2) Non H.12) Vous avez attendu combien de temps pour connaître la décision d’admissibilité au programme? a) Paiement au début de l'année scolaire b) Paiements mensuels c) Soutien en nature (livres, fournitures...) d) Autre ..................................... H.5) Comment avez-vous connu ce programme? 1) < 1 mois 2) 1-3 mois 3) 4-11 mois 4) Une année ou plus H.13) Est-ce que votre première demande a été (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) a) par des amis/voisins/membres de famille b) par l'école c) par un(e) assistant(e) social(e) d) par les autorités locales e) par les autorités régionales ou nationales f) par la radio, la télévision, ou un journal g) Autre ..................................... approuvée? 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si OUI allez directement à la question #18 H.14) A votre avis, quelles étaient les raisons pour lesquelles votre demande n’a pas été approuvée? (Reproduire la réponse mot par mot puis mettre la réponse correspondante à la question H15) H.6) Quelles sont les conditions pour bénéficier de ............................................................... H.15) Recodage de l’enquêteur ce programme? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) Ne pas lire les options a) Inscription de l'école b) Fréquentation de l'école c) Résultats scolaires d) Pauvreté f) Autre ..................................... e) Handicap H.16) Avez-vous fait un recours contre la décision? f) Autre ..................................... H.7) Croyez-vous qu’il y a un membre de la famille qui est qualifié pour ce programme? 1) Oui 2) Non 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si NON allez directement à la question (H28) H.8) Avez-vous déjà fait une demande pour ce H.17) Est-ce que vos demandes de recours avaient programme? a) Pas assez pauvre b) Incapable de prouver le besoin c) Raté la période de demande d) Corruption e) Affiliation politique/Clientélisme été éventuellement acceptées? 1) Oui 2) Non ➥ Si OUI: allez directement à la question #10 1) Oui 2) Non ➥Si NON allez directement à la question (H28) 13 Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire H.18) Quand est-ce que votre foyer a reçu des H.25) Quand est-ce que les allocations étaient allocations pour la première fois? Mois: _____ / Année: _____ bloquées? Mois: _____ / Année: _____ H.26) Quand avez-vous reçu vos allocations le plus H.19) En quelles années avez-vous renouvelé votre récemment? Mois: _____ / Année: _____ admissibilité pour continuer à recevoir vos indemnités ? (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) H.27) Pour lequel des enfants étaient destinés ces a) 2007 ou avant allocations? b) 2008 Numéro d’Ordre : Voir page 2 c) 2009 d) 2010 question B1 a) Numéro d’Ordre |__|__| e) 2012 b) Numéro d’Ordre |__|__| f) 2013 c) Numéro d’Ordre |__|__| g) 2014 h) Jamais H.28) Pensez-vous que les transferts d’argent pour la scolarité des enfants font partie des allocations du PNAFN en général, ou bien pensez-vous que ce sont des allocations à part? H.20) Vous a-t-on demandé de présenter au début ou au cours de l’année scolaire un document prouvant l’inscription ou la scolarité de votre enfant (certificat de présence, bulletin, carnet…) pour justifier la continuation de votre admissibilité 1) Oui 2) Non H.29) Si jamais vous devriez choisir, quel est le montant d’allocation du programme le plus important pour vous: le paiement de 10 Dinars par mois pendant 12 mois, ou bien le paiement de 30 Dinars une fois au début de l’année scolaire. H.21) Avez-vous déjà raté la période de recertification (enregistrement dans le programme)? 1) Oui 2) Non H.22) A-t-on effectué au cours de l’année scolaire suivants pour garder votre enfant à l’école, que préféreriez-vous? 1) Oui 2) Non H.23) Est-ce que ces allocations avaient été une fois bloquées? 1) 12 paiements mensuels de 10 Dinars 2) 30 Dinars au début de l'année scolaire H.30) Si vous aviez le choix entre les paiements une visite ou une enquête sociale pour vérifier la poursuite de la scolarité de votre enfant et par conséquent la continuation de votre admissibilité au programme 1) Font partis du PNAFN 2) Allocations à part 1) Oui 2) Non 1) 30 Dinars au début de l'année scolaire + 10 Dinars chaque mois 2) 30 Dinars au début de l'année scolaire + 30 Dinars chaque trimestre 3) 120 Dinars au début de l'année scolaire + 0 Dinars chaque mois 4) 0 Dinar au début de l'année scolaire + 15 Dinars chaque mois ➥Si NON, allez directement à la question H26 H.31) Pour chacun de vos enfants, est-ce que les H.24) Si OUI: Pourquoi est-ce que les allocations allocations ont influencé votre décision de l’envoyer ou ne pas l’envoyer à l’école? étaient bloquées? a) L'enfant avait cessé d'aller à l'école b) Pas suffisamment pauvre c) Incapable de prouver le besoin d) Raté la période de renouvellement/recertification e) Corruption f) Affiliation politique/ Clientélisme g) Autre ..................................... 14 1) Bien sûr que oui 2) Probablement 3) Peut-être 4) Probablement pas 5) Bien sûr que non Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire I. Dépenses scolaires 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Combien de vos enfants fréquentent actuellement une école préparatoire, maternelle ou garderie? Pour ces enfants, au total: Combien est-ce que vous avez dépensé le mois dernier pour: les repas à l'école transport scolaire Combien est-ce que vous anticipez dépenser au total pendant cette année scolaire pour: frais de scolarité (inscription,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repas, transport,…) si 0 passez à 9 Combien de vos enfants fréquentent actuellement des écoles publiques d'enseignement primaire? Pour ces enfants, au total: Combien est-ce que vous avez dépensé le mois dernier pour: les repas à l'école transport scolaire cours particuliers Combien est-ce que vous anticipez dépenser au total pendant cette année scolaire pour frais de scolarité (inscription, cours particuliers,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repart, transport,…) si 0 passez à 18 Combien de vos enfants fréquentent actuellement des collèges et lycées publics? Pour ces enfants, au total: Combien est-ce que vous avez dépensé le mois dernier pour: les repas à l'école transport scolaire cours particuliers Combien est-ce que vous anticipez dépenser au total pendant cette année scolaire pour: frais de scolarité (inscription, cours particuliers,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repart, transport,…) si 0 passez à 27 31 32 33 34 35 Combien de vos enfants fréquentent actuellement des établissements privés? Pour ces enfants, au total: Combien est-ce que vous avez dépensé le mois dernier pour: les repas à l'école transport scolaire cours particuliers Combien est-ce que vous anticipez dépenser au total pendant cette année scolaire pour : frais de scolarité (inscription, cours particuliers,…) tenues scolaires fournitures scolaires dortoir/internat à temps partiel à l'école autres dépenses reliées à la scolarité (repart, transport,…) 36 37 En moyenne, à combien estimez-vous les dépenses mensuelles du ménage pour la nourriture? En moyenne, à combien estimez-vous les dépenses mensuelles totales du ménage? 28 29 30 15 Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars si 0 passez à 36 Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Dinars Une évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire J. Conditions de vie du ménage J.1) Type de logement J.8) Est-ce que votre ménage possède: a) Radiocassette 1) Maison Arabe (Dar Arbi, Borj, Houch) 2) Une Villa, logement déduit d’une villa 3) Un appartement / Studio 4) Logement dans Oukala 5) Autre b) Télévision c) Parabole d) Bibliothèque e) Téléphone fixe J.2) Nombre de pièces dans le logement f) Téléphone portable g) Ordinateur |__|__| h) Connexion à l'Internet J.3) Est-ce que votre résidence est connectée aux i) Frigidaire réseaux suivants: (Plusieurs possibilités de réponses) j) Congélateur k) Cuisinière avec four l) Machine à laver a) Electricité m) Machine à vaisselle b) Gaz naturel n) Climatiseur c) Sonede o) Chauffage électrique d) Réseau d’assainissement p) Chauffage central e) [ aucun des ces réseaux ] q) Toilette équipée d’une chasse d’eau r) Salle de bain équipée (eau chaude) J.4) Depuis combien d’années occupez-vous cette s) Cuisine avec évier résidence? t) Voiture |__|__| u) Moto v) Bicyclette J.5) Où est-ce que vous habitiez auparavant w) Une exploitation agricole x) Bétail 1) Même ville/cité/village 2) Autre ville/cité/ *dans cette délégation* 3) Autre délégation *dans ce gouvernorat* 4) Autre gouvernorat 5) Autre pays 6) [Pas applicable: toujours vécu ici] y) Compte bancaire/postal J.9) Votre maison se trouve à quelle distance de l’école primaire la plus proche? |__|__| km J.6) Quel est votre statut d’occupation de votre J.10) Votre maison se trouve à quelle distance du collège le plus proche? résidence 1) Propriétaire 2) Locataire 3) Gratuit (p.e., chez des parents, employeur) |__|__| km J.11) Votre maison se trouve à quelle distance du lycée le plus proche? J.7) Comparée à la plupart des autres ménages dans votre quartier, la situation économique de votre ménage est … |__|__| km J.12) 1) Meilleure que les autres ménages 2) Semblable à d'autres ménages 3) Pire que les autres ménages Votre maison se trouve à quelle distance du centre de santé le plus proche? |__|__| km FIN DU QUESTIONNAIRE 16 Appendix 5: Focused literature review of education-focused cash transfer programs Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Appendix 5. Characteristics of other education-focused transfer programs Year Started Funder 2007 Tunisia government Country Tunisia Program PNAFN-Scolaire Argentina 2009 Argentina government-ANSES Bangladesh Asignacion Universal por Hijo (AUH) Primary Education Stipend 2002 Bangladesh government Children of salaried informal workers (below minimum wage) and 3.5 million children (2013) the unemployed Primary students in rural government schools 4.6 million children (2005) Bolivia Bono Juancito Pinto 2006 Bolivia government Public school children Brazil Bolsa Familia 2001 Brazil government, World Bank Poor families with school-age children (up to 15 yrs old) Chile Solidario 2002 Chile government Colombia Familias en Accion 2002 Colombia government, external creditors Indigent and high-risk households, especially those with female heads Extremely poor families with children 7-17 400,000 HH (2010) Ecuador Bono de Desarrollo Humano 2003 Ecuador government, World Bank Poor mothers of children 6-15 1.1 million HH (2006) Ghana LEAP 2008 Ghana government, UK DFID, World bank Households in extreme poverty (poorest 20%) 70,000 HH (2014) Guatemala 2008 1998 Ladli (regional) 2005 Extremely poor families with minors aged 0–15 in the 130 most vulnerable municipalities Poor households with children aged 6–12 who have not completed the 4th grade of primary school Residents of Haryana State with >1 daughter 240,000 HH (2009) India Guatemala government, Inter-American Development Bank Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank Delhi government 250,000 HH (2009) Honduras Mi Familia Progresa (Mifapro) PRAF (education transfer) Indonesia Program Keluarga Harapan 2007 Indonesia government, World Bank Mothers in chronically poor families 630,000 HH (2008) Jamaica PATH 2001 Jamaica government, World Bank Families of children 0-19 210,000 children (2008) Kenya Cash Transfers for OVC 2004 Poor households fostering OVC 0-17 100,000 OVC (2012) Malawi 2006 Ultra poor (10%) households who are also labor-constrained 30,000 HH (2013) Mexico Social Cash Transfer Scheme (Mchinji) Oportunidades/PROGRESA Kenya government; Global Fund; UK DFID; UNICEF; World Bank; SIDA Malawi government, UNICEF 1997 Mexico government, World Bank Extremely poor households 5.8 million HH (2011) Morocco Tayssir (pilot) 2008 Morocco government Parents of children 6-15 300,000 children (2010) Beneficiaries Poor parents of school-age children Coverage 77,705 children (July 2013) 1.6 million children (2010); Has since expanded to include 9-12th grade 11 million children (2004) 256,000 HH (2009) 104,000 HH (cumulative-2010) Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Year Started Funder 2007 Tunisia government Country Tunisia Program PNAFN-Scolaire Mozambique Basic Social Subsidy Program 1992 Mozambique government Nicaragua Red de Proteccion Social (RPS) Punjab Female School Stipend Program (regional) Red de Oportunidades 2001 Nicaragua government, Inter-American Development Bank Punjab government, World Bank Pakistan Panama 2004 2006 2005 Peru Red de Protección y Promoción Social Juntos Philippines 4Ps (Education grant) 2008 Singapore School Pocket Money Fund South Africa Tanzania Paraguay 2005 Panama government, Inter-American Development Bank, World Bank Paraguay government, Inter-American Development Bank Peru government Beneficiaries Poor parents of school-age children Coverage 77,705 children (July 2013) Extremely poor households that are permanently labor constrained (elderly, disabled, chronically ill, etc.) Poor households with children 7-13 in grades 1-4 260,000 HH (2013) 36,000 HH (2009) Girls in grades 6-10, 15/34 districts 455,259 children (2007) Families living under the extreme poverty line with children 4-17 70,000 HH (2009-~16.6% of the population) Children aged 0 to 14 and their families, and pregnant women facing extreme poverty Poor households with children less than 14 years old 5,350 HH (2006) 453,823 (2008) Poor households with children aged 6-14 years old 380,000 HH (2009) 2001 Philippines government, Millenium Challenge Corporation, World Bank The Straits Times (newspaper) Children from low-income families 105,000 children (cumulative-2014) Child Support Grant 1998 South Africa government Households in deep poverty with children under 15 10.8 million children (2012) 2009 2001 Tanzania government, Japanese Social Dev Fund Turkey government, EU, World Bank Uruguay Community-Based Conditional Cash Transfer Social Risk Mitigation Project (Education grant) Asignaciones Familiares 2008 Uruguay government Poor households, especially those where elderly are caring for 4,998 HH (2011) orphans Poor families with children aged 0–6 or in primary or secondary 855,906 HH (2006) school Children that belong to households under the national poverty line 500,000 children (2008) Uruguay Ingreso Ciudadano 2005 Uruguay government The first quantile of people below the poverty line ~125,000 HH (cumulative) Yemen Basic Education Development Project (Pilot) Manicaland (RCT) 2007 Yemen government, World Bank Girls in grades 4-9, in 2/20 governorates 39,572 girls (2012) 2010 UNICEF, World Bank, Wellcome Trust Households with children <18 years and head of household constraints OR household in the poorest wealth quintile. 2,844 HH (2013) Turkey Zimbabwe Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Amount per Month $6.22 per child % monthly HH expenses (p.c.) 1.2% $27.50 per child 4.8% $1.25-$1.65 per HH Bolivia Frequency Duration Monthly As long as eligible (+ annual bonus) Targeting Strategy Unverified means testing (via PNAFN) and community assessment Review of government records 1.5% Monthly (80%), annually (20%) 2X per year $2.33 per child 1.2% Annually As long as eligible Brazil $11-18 per child 2.4% Monthly As long as eligible Chile $15-$6.50 (decreasing over time) per HH $8 / $14-33 (primary / secondary) per child $15 per HH 1.0% Bimonthly 5 years 3.1% Bimonthly As long as eligible 3.2% Monthly As long as eligible $2.79-5.23 per HH 2.3% Monthly Not specified Guatemala $20 per HH 6.1% Bimonthly Honduras $4.17 per child 1.8% $4.17 per HH, invested $4.34-$15.91 per HH Country Tunisia Argentina Bangladesh Colombia Ecuador Ghana India Indonesia Grade 6-10 Enrollment, attendance (85% under 16, 75% 16-18), health checks School-based selection from those with at least Enrollment, 85% attendance, pass end of one poverty attribute year test Review of school records Enrollment, 80% attendance Unverified (self-declared) means testing and Enrollment, 85% attendance, vaccinations 0-7 geographic targeting Proxy means test (Social Protection Card score) UCT Proxy means test (SISBEN welfare index); Geographic targeting Proxy means test (Selben index) Enrollment, 80% attendance (2-month cycle) Enrollment, 90% attendance (by month) As long as eligible Proxy means test and community-based targeting Proxy means test and geographic targeting Enrollment, 90% attendance 2X per year As long as eligible Proxy means test and geographic targeting Enrollment, attendance (grades 1-4) 2.6% Annually 5 years maximum Review of government records Enrollment, immunization (both daughters) 3.8% (20-80% among beneficiaries) 3.6% 3X per year 6 years Proxy means test Bimonthly As long as eligible Proxy means test Enrollment, 85% attendance, remedial classes for 15-18, clinic visits Enrollment, 85% attendance, health visits 29.2% Bimonthly 5 years maximum Not specified Geographic targeting (HIV rate) and community UCT assessment Community-based UCT, but bonuses for enrollment As long as eligible Proxy means test and geographic targeting Enrollment and 85% attendance, health visits Study duration Geographic targeting (school sectors) Enrollment and attendance (CCT) Kenya $10 base +$5/$7.50 (primary/secondary) per child $24 per HH Malawi $4.30-$12.85 per HH 20.1% Monthly Mexico $13-$74 per child Bimonthly Morocco $8-$13 per child 5.6% (20% among beneficiaries) 4.5% Jamaica As long as eligible Conditionality Enrollment (one time) Annual Enrollment Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Amount per Month $6.22 per child % monthly HH expenses (p.c.) 1.2% $4.50-$13 per HH 15.4% Monthly 14.3% Pakistan $7.50 per hh / $2.08 per year per child $3 per child Panama $50 per HH Paraguay Targeting Strategy Unverified means testing (via PNAFN) and community assessment Conditionality Enrollment (one time) Not specified Self-targeting and Means testing UCT Bimonthly 3 years Geographic targeting 1.4% Quarterly As long as eligible Geographic targeting (using literacy rate) Enrollment and 85% attendance, grade promotion Enrollment and 80% attendance Bimonthly 5 years $5 per child 10.3% (20% in lowest decile) 1.4% Monthly As long as eligible $35.84 per HH 6.9% Monthly Philippines $7 per child (for 10 months/yr) 2.9% Quarterly 8 years (4 full, 4 partial) 5 years Singapore 5.2% Monthly South Africa $44 / $72 / $96 per child (primary/ secondary/post-secondary) $27.09 per child 5.3% Monthly Tanzania $3 per child (max HH payment $18) 4.7% Bimonthly Not specified $15 per boy, $20 per girl (primary); $25 per boy, $30 per girl (secondary) $31 (primary), $45 (secondary)--first child in each HH $56 per HH 2.6% Bimonthly As long as eligible 6.0% Monthly As long as eligible Proxy means testing in rural, indigenous, urban Enrollment, parent-teacher conferences, areas (different cut-offs) immunizations, capacity-building events Proxy means test and geographic targeting Enrollment and 85% attendance, pregnancy check-ups, infant growth monitoring Geographic targeting, proxy means testing, and Enrollment, 85% attendance (ages 6-14), community validation pregnant/child health visits, registration Proxy means test and geographic targeting Enrollment and 85% attendance (140 poorest municipalities and 10 cities) Community-based (family service centers) Enrolled full-time, disadvantaged living situation Means tested (with focus on rural access to Enrollment, regular attendance transfers) Community Management Committee, Proxy Enrollment, 80% attendance (health checks means test, Community verification for younger children & elderly) Proxy means test Enrollment, 80% attendance, not to repeat the same grade more than once Means tested Enrollment, Attendance 8.8% Monthly 2.0% 3X per year 2 years (project duration) 7 years 36.0% Bimonthly Study duration Country Tunisia Mozambique Nicaragua Peru Turkey Uruguay Uruguay Yemen Zimbabwe $2.92-$3.33 per girl, + achievement bonuses (max $10 per HH) $9 + $2 per child Frequency Duration Monthly As long as eligible (+ annual bonus) 2 years, or 4 years post-secondary As long as eligible Proxy means test and income level Geographic targeting Means tested (survey), Community-based targeting and verification Enrollment, attendance, and regular health status control Enrollment, 80% attendance (2-month cycle), passing grades Birth certificate, vaccinations, 90% school attendance, parenting skills classes Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Country Tunisia Objective 1 Reduce dropout rates and increasing school performance among poor families Objective 2 End the intergenerational cycle of poverty Argentina Improve quality of life, education, and health Reduce poverty and homelessness Bangladesh Increase enrollment and completion rates Establish equity in assistance for students (Also increase overall quality of education) Bolivia Increase enrollment, attendance, and completion Help families pay for school supplies Brazil Alleviate the income deprivation of poor households Break the intergenerational transmission of poverty Chile Immediate poverty alleviation Colombia Lessen poverty by increasing human capital among children in poor HH Provide the poor with the tools to allow them to permanently escape poverty by their own means Substitute, in part, the income the household would forgo if increased schooling reduces income-generating activities Ecuador Improve the formation of human capital among poor families in Ecuador Ghana Alleviate short-term poverty Encourage long-term human capital development Guatemala Provide economic incentives Contribute to human capital; Promote investment in education, health, and nutrition Honduras India Create opportunities for vulnerable population groups in developing human capital and production capacities of families. Raise the status of the girl child in the family and in the society Indonesia Provide better access to education and health services Support vulnerable groups through cash transfers supplemented with projects in the social sector, particularly education and health Change the mindsets of the people for proper rearing of the girl children, and provide them the right to birth and the right to survival Help children from chronically poor households escape the intergenerational poverty trap Jamaica Alleviate poverty by increasing the value of transfers to the poor Kenya Encourage fostering and retention of children Malawi Mexico Reduce poverty, hunger, and starvation in all households which are ultra poor and labour constrained "Prevent parenting failures and market failures" Morocco Getting — and keeping — boys and girls in school Increase educational attainment, improve health outcomes of the poor, break the intergenerational cycle of poverty Promote their human capital development Increase school enrolment and attendance of children and invest in their health and nutrition status Increase the human capital of children of poor rural house- holds, thus attempting to break the intergenerational inheritance of poverty Enquête d’évaluation du programme d’allocation scolaire allouée dans le cadre du PNAFN – FINAL REPORT Country Tunisia Objective 1 Reduce dropout rates and increasing school performance among poor families Objective 2 End the intergenerational cycle of poverty Mozambique Provide direct assistance to individuals permanently unable to work Nicaragua Supplement household income for up to three years to increase expenditures on food Create minimum conditions for survival, access to social services, satisfy basic needs of target groups in absolute poverty Reduce dropout rates during the first four years of primary school Pakistan Panama improving enrollment, increasing retention, reducing gender disparities and enhancing female prestige Reduce extreme poverty Increase supply of female teachers and other service providers , particularly in low literacy and poorer regions of Punjab Enhance human capital Paraguay Reduce extreme poverty Increase the cluster of human and social capital comprised in beneficiary families Peru Develop human capital Break inter-generational transfers of poverty Philippines Improve human capital and thus break the intergenerational cycle of poverty Singapore Alleviate current poverty by supplementing the income of the poor to address their immediate consumption needs Provide every child in need with the resources needed to do well in school-and beyond South Africa Directly reduce poverty and vulnerability Help children in poverty increase their years of schooling Turkey Increase consumption and enable poor households and carers to participate in productive economic activity (e.g. to look for work) Reduce poverty among extremely poor and vulnerable: children, chronically ill, disabilities, Increase investment in health and education, improve health and educational attainment, older people economic growth, reduce poverty Generate greater social inclusion Provide mechanisms to cope with poverty as a market misery Uruguay Alleviate poverty Uruguay Reduce high poverty rates and indigence Yemen Expand the provision of quality basic education to all (grades 1-9) with special attention on gender equity Study Tanzania Zimbabwe Promote school attendance (esp teenagers, among whom dropout is high) Study